EOY 2021: Predict the Top 8 Seeds

[Vowelguy]

A Big 12 team will be chosen. It’s politics.

2012: highest b10 = 4 seed
2013: highest b10 = 3 seed
2014: highest b10 = 3 seed
2015: highest pac = 3 seed
2017: highest b10 = 3 seed
2018: highest b10 = 3 seed

 

[bballnut90]

That's a vast overstatement. They have been underperforming overall, but that's a long way from being dreadful.

Is it a vast overstatement though? From Arizona's perspective, only beating Stanford will give them a boost in the eyes of the committee, and it's early but outside of those 2, no other team is a safe bet to make the tournament at this point. Oregon/Oregon State aren't tournament teams if they keep on this same trajectory, UCLA is far from a tournament guarantee, Colorado is undefeated but hasn't played any projected tournament teams yet, and other programs like Washington State and Utah are currently on the outside of the bubble.

If you look at every other P5 conference, they all have at least 4 teams that look like locks to make the tournament, while Pac 12 has 2:

PAC: Stanford, Arizona
SEC: South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss
ACC: Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame
Big Ten: Michigan, Maryland, Indiana, Ohio State,
Big 12: Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, debatably Kansas State

At this point it looks like the clear weak conference of the 5.

 

[visitingcock]

Chosen for what, a 1 seed or a 2 seed?

It really doesn't work that way. The committee is diligent about judging resumes on individual merit. They don't preordain spots for conferences. [ ]

Ah. Politics will ensure that the top team of the five p-5 s Plus One (UConn /Big East) will be six of the eight. They have traditionally been joined by the two best conference runners ups. Could it be two from one powerful conference? I guess so, but the PAC didn’t pull it off last year.

Not to say it is set in stone but that’s the general politics that are ow played. Not in the beginning, but that is how it has been trending.

 

[Plebe]

Ah. Politics will ensure that the top team of the five p-5 s Plus One (UConn /Big East) will be six of the eight. They have traditionally been joined by the two best conference runners ups. Could it be two from one powerful conference? I guess so, but the PAC didn’t pull it off last year.

Not to say it is set in stone but that’s the general politics that are ow played. Not in the beginning, but that is how it has been trending.

This is simply not accurate at all. As @Vowelguy just pointed out, the Big Ten's highest seed was a 3 or even a 4 seed multiple times in the past decade, most recently in 2018. Those were not "political" decisions, just as it's not political when it hasn't turned out that way. I'm frankly shocked that you subscribe to this type of thinking.

Please point out one occasion when an objective evaluation of resumes didn't justify a team's high seed.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Is it a vast overstatement though? From Arizona's perspective, only beating Stanford will give them a boost in the eyes of the committee, and it's early but outside of those 2, no other team is a safe bet to make the tournament at this point. Oregon/Oregon State aren't tournament teams if they keep on this same trajectory, UCLA is far from a tournament guarantee, Colorado is undefeated but hasn't played any projected tournament teams yet, and other programs like Washington State and Utah are currently on the outside of the bubble.

If you look at every other P5 conference, they all have at least 4 teams that look like locks to make the tournament, while Pac 12 has 2:

PAC: Stanford, Arizona
SEC: South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss
ACC: Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame
Big Ten: Michigan, Maryland, Indiana, Ohio State,
Big 12: Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, debatably Kansas State

At this point it looks like the clear weak conference of the 5.

I'm still contending the use of the word dreadful. And the Pac 12 will have more than 2 teams in the Tourney. There's no possible way they only get 2 in.

 

[LoTrader]

Let's look back at this thread when we get to the end of the conference tournaments. I am anticipating some big deviations from these forecasts.

 

[visitingcock]

Let's look back at this thread when we get to the end of the conference tournaments. I am anticipating some big deviations from these forecasts.

Well, I'm going to do a look back (and scoring) when the committee makes its seeding choice - which is right after the "end of the conference tournaments."