End of Year Forecast

[my2cents]

As we come to the end of the year, I thought I would add my two cents as to what may happen. I apologize as this is longer than my usual posts.

We should be the overall #1 seed. However, the Committee believes UConn winning is bad for basketball. They will throw monkey wrenches in our way.
As the #1 seed we should be playing the worse #2 seed. A team like Iowa should be there, but I predict they will put a team like LSU in our way.
The committee also sees our weakness is the post, so they will put teams with very good centers. Iowa St. with Crooks will be in our bracket.

As the number one seed, we should be placed against the 4th #1 seed, maybe Texas. They will put South Carolina there.

I do think we will make the Final 4, but Geno will be making choices based on Big East play.
One, Serah Williams play against the BIG East has been very disappointing. Her last 6 Big East Games, she has avgs. 5 Points, 2.6 rebounds., 2.3 turnovers and 1 block. If this is how much she contributes against a weak Big East, how effective could she be against a Betts or a Joyce Edwards?

Our primary ball handler in the half court has to be an effective shooter. KK is great in the open court, but if she is hesitant to shoot the ball when she is open. The other team will not guard her causing a "clogging" factor for our drivers.

Lastly, Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd need to start putting in more minutes as their stamina will be needed in the last three games. We can't have them get used to only playing half the minutes.

 

[JavaMan]

As we come to the end of the year, I thought I would add my two cents as to what may happen. I apologize as this is longer than my usual posts...

Yea, that was at least a nickle's worth.

But still a bargain at twice the price. 😉

 

[Geew1992]

We should be the overall #1 seed. However, the Committee believes UConn winning is bad for basketball. They will throw monkey wrenches in our way.

Umm... the committee hates UConn?? Do tell?

 

[hoopsfan22]

If UConn gets edged out from the overall #1 seed it will be because they stumbled in the BET or UCLA or South Carolina edges them out in terms of overall resume which is very possible.

 

[fomalhaut]

As the #1 seed we should be playing the worse #2 seed. A team like Iowa should be there, but I predict they will put a team like LSU in our way.

As others have pointed out, there will almost certainly be four SEC teams in the top two lines, and they are required to be in different brackets, so the #2 seed in Connecticut's bracket cannot be Iowa or Louisville or suchlike. It is very likely to be LSU or Vanderbilt.

 

[Bone Dog]

As others have pointed out, there will almost certainly be four SEC teams in the top two lines, and they are required to be in different brackets, so the #2 seed in Connecticut's bracket cannot be Iowa or Louisville or suchlike. It is very likely to be LSU or Vanderbilt.

True enough, though the necessity of bracketing around this fact is not absolute. Those are not laws of nature. They are merely policy decisions.

What I mainly see is the dismal effects of allowing a super conference to form in the first place. This should have been discouraged in advance for the good of the game. Don't bother asking me how, or what would be legally possible, etc. I don't know and I don't really care. But it would serve those schools right not to cater to them by bracketing around them. What should the other conferences -- or D1 as a whole -- care if they knock each other off in early rounds? It's what they (and the NCAA) deserve for creating this ridiculously lopsided situation.

 

[ConnMotors]

NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Tournament rules
aim to avoid matchups between teams from the same conference in the First Four and the first two rounds. If teams met twice, they cannot meet until the Sweet 16, while those meeting three times cannot play until the Elite Eight.

NCAA.org +2
Key Conference Pairing Rules:

• Early Rounds: The committee avoids placing teams from the same conference against each other in the first and second rounds.
• Rematches: If teams played twice (including conference tournaments), they may not meet before the Sweet 16.
• Three+ Meetings: Teams that played three or more times cannot meet until the Elite Eight.
• Top 4 Seeds: The top four teams from the same conference are generally placed in different regions.
• Exceptions: These guidelines can be relaxed if a conference has nine or more teams in the tournament, or if multiple teams from the same conference are among the final at-large selections.
• Region Constraint: Generally, no more than two teams from the same conference are placed in one region.

 

[Engineer59]

If conference doesn't matter when teams are selected for the NCAA tournament, why do they matter when the seeding and placement is determined?

 

[1974yankees]

If UConn gets edged out from the overall #1 seed it will be because they stumbled in the BET or UCLA or South Carolina edges them out in terms of overall resume which is very possible.

Uconn is going to be the overall number 1 seed. There is no way that they will stumble in this conference tournament..

They are the Only undefeated team left too.. UCLA has 1 loss, SC has 2 losses and Texas has 3 losses... Those should be the top four seeds right there....

For the record, I dont know if the NCAA "hates Uconn" but I have always believed that ESPN hates Uconn and I am not too sure about the refs either....

There is a bias against Uconn no doubt..

 

[topogigio]

You gotta' beat whoever is in your way ...as Queen sang, "it really doesn't matter to me!"

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

If conference doesn't matter when teams are selected for the NCAA tournament, why do they matter when the seeding and placement is determined?

Typically, I suppose, to avoid rematches. Which (arguably) fans don't really want to see.

That said, historically, the NCAA seems to delight in "tricky" match-ups. I wouldn't be shocked, for instance, to see Vanderbilt matched up in some way with UConn, because of Shea Ralph. "Connections" between matched up teams is one thing we have seen historically.

I'm not sure they specifically hate anybody, but clearly there are factors that enter the "details" that are a bit opaque, usually.

 

[Rowdy831]

No one hates UConn. Every game is one TV and most of those games are against horrible teams. UConn is like Caitlin Clark in that people say they are hated but anyone who want revenue knows they are the biggest draws. As far as seeding goes I could see a team like UCLA or South Carolina being the overall 1 seed based on schedule but in the end all Final 4 teams will need to be able to beat any of the other three to win the tournament.

If UConn has a weakness it is their post game. Right now their post players have trouble making a layup and against UCLA they will be a non factor on offense. UConn has Azzi and Sarah who are two of the top 5 or 6 players in the country and no team will be able to stop them both. They have a great support system to them in Ash and KK but to me the key will be what they get from the bench. If Blanca plays at a high level it gives UConn a huge advantage against any team even if the post can't score.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

"You go where they tell you and you play who they tell you. It's been like that from day one." Geno last March when we got our 2 seed, which we maybe did to ourselves. This year the name most often mentioned as in our way is UCLA. Yum yum, Cori Close though the big situation may be daunting. Me, I think this year is going to be deja vu. UConn v Univ. of S C.

 

[Phil]

What I mainly see is the dismal effects of allowing a super conference to form in the first place.

This is a good point, although I'm not quite sure what to do with it.

Before the idiotic conference realignment, there was a regular season, the second half of which in conference games, and the NCAA tournament was a way to find out the best overall teams among all the conferences. It would be very discouraging to be the second or third best team in a conference, go through an entire season, get invited to the tournament, and then find yourself replaying a conference opponent you've already played and lost to during the regular season.

The selection committee understandably decided to keep theseunfortunate meet ups to a minimum, resulting in the current rules. However, those rules will put together when it was not likely that nine or 11, or 12 members of the same conference would be in the season-ending tournament.

While you still might have the same desire to play somebody other than a conference team, it becomes much tougher to slot all those teams and avoid meet ups without creating the potential of unfair slotting of one of the teams without so many conference members in the tournament. The unfairness of having to meet a conference following an early round needs to be balanced against the possibility that a team is moved away from the natural spot, either seed or region or both simply because there are so many members of a single conference.

The ideal situation would be to rethink the stupidity of the conference makeups but I recognize the folly of tilting at that windmill, so maybe the conference meet up rules need to be relaxed.

Which ever is done, it's one more black black mark on the conference realignment debacle

 

[Phil]

No one hates UConn.

Let's not go overboard. I'm sure there are plenty of fans who hate UConn. But I don't think that extreme emotion a significant role in the selection decisions. I'm not pretending it's zero but I don't think it's as dramatic as some feel and more importantly I don't think there's any reasonable way to address it.

 

[Cuango]

As we come to the end of the year, I thought I would add my two cents as to what may happen. I apologize as this is longer than my usual posts.

We should be the overall #1 seed. However, the Committee believes UConn winning is bad for basketball. They will throw monkey wrenches in our way.
As the #1 seed we should be playing the worse #2 seed. A team like Iowa should be there, but I predict they will put a team like LSU in our way.
The committee also sees our weakness is the post, so they will put teams with very good centers. Iowa St. with Crooks will be in our bracket.

As the number one seed, we should be placed against the 4th #1 seed, maybe Texas. They will put South Carolina there.

I do think we will make the Final 4, but Geno will be making choices based on Big East play.
One, Serah Williams play against the BIG East has been very disappointing. Her last 6 Big East Games, she has avgs. 5 Points, 2.6 rebounds., 2.3 turnovers and 1 block. If this is how much she contributes against a weak Big East, how effective could she be against a Betts or a Joyce Edwards?

Our primary ball handler in the half court has to be an effective shooter. KK is great in the open court, but if she is hesitant to shoot the ball when she is open. The other team will not guard her causing a "clogging" factor for our drivers.

Lastly, Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd need to start putting in more minutes as their stamina will be needed in the last three games. We can't have them get used to only playing half the minutes.

First, (I just learned this from someone here on the Boneyard) apparently, they no longer do #1 vs weakest #2. Instead, they are required to avoid conference matchups. So, SC cannot have an SEC team as their #2 etc. This is infuriating to me as it makes it possible/likely that we will have to play the strongest #2! Two, Geno is not likely to make big changes to the lineup at this point. Three, I’d love to see Crooks, the ones to worry about are Betts, Okot, and Heiden! KK is not going anywhere! She is and will remain, our primary pg until she graduates!

 

[Cuango]

No one hates UConn. Every game is one TV and most of those games are against horrible teams. UConn is like Caitlin Clark in that people say they are hated but anyone who want revenue knows they are the biggest draws. As far as seeding goes I could see a team like UCLA or South Carolina being the overall 1 seed based on schedule but in the end all Final 4 teams will need to be able to beat any of the other three to win the tournament.

If UConn has a weakness it is their post game. Right now their post players have trouble making a layup and against UCLA they will be a non factor on offense. UConn has Azzi and Sarah who are two of the top 5 or 6 players in the country and no team will be able to stop them both. They have a great support system to them in Ash and KK but to me the key will be what they get from the bench. If Blanca plays at a high level it gives UConn a huge advantage against any team even if the post can't score.

Some here, including me, may overstate it a bit but if you really believe “no one hates UConn” I guess I really don’t know what to say. Every team has it’s haters! UConn, I would say, more than most.

 

[Sun Dog]

If UCLA finishes with just one loss, a case could be made for them being the overall #1 seed. If South Carolina finishes with just two losses, a case could be made for them being the #2 one seed. Is all this speculation just a case of much ado about something we can’t control anyway? We won it all as a 2 last year, let’s just do it again! Committee decisions be damned.

 

[Vowelguy]

First, (I just learned this from someone here on the Boneyard) apparently, they no longer do #1 vs weakest #2.

They never did this, per se. The intent was the S-curve but there were always things that would cause teams to be moved around. Conference opponents, geography, etc.

This year is no different.

The challenge is that super conferences mean there are more possible conflicts.

Also note that many of the rules are not required, but instead are suggested or preferred.

Personally I would weigh less on conference affiliation than number of times played.

 

[BBallF]

NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Tournament rules
aim to avoid matchups between teams from the same conference in the First Four and the first two rounds. If teams met twice, they cannot meet until the Sweet 16, while those meeting three times cannot play until the Elite Eight.
View attachment 117562NCAA.org +2
Key Conference Pairing Rules:

• Early Rounds: The committee avoids placing teams from the same conference against each other in the first and second rounds.
• Rematches: If teams played twice (including conference tournaments), they may not meet before the Sweet 16.
• Three+ Meetings: Teams that played three or more times cannot meet until the Elite Eight.
• Top 4 Seeds: The top four teams from the same conference are generally placed in different regions.
• Exceptions: These guidelines can be relaxed if a conference has nine or more teams in the tournament, or if multiple teams from the same conference are among the final at-large selections.
• Region Constraint: Generally, no more than two teams from the same conference are placed in one region.

When were these rules adopted? If they were adopted prior to the formation of the SEC and Big 10 super conferences as they currently are constituted, they are discriminatory to the other conferences.

 

[ConnMotors]

When were these rules adopted? If they were adopted prior to the formation of the SEC and Big 10 super conferences as they currently are constituted, they are discriminatory to the other conferences.

That I do not know I googled the questions to see what came up. What I posted was at the top of page

 

[BBallF]

That I do not know I googled the questions to see what came up. What I posted was at the top of page

Even using those rules, if the teams only played each other twice, they can meet in the Sweet 16. A #1 seed SC can be in the same region as LSU as a #2 seed since they would only meet in the Elite 8 and in fact even if they played 3 times it would be permissible in that round. Why should everyone else have to adjust to accommodate them? Someone said this came after UCONN played Rutgers 4 times in a season. So we create a body of rules to prevent such a rare atrocity, which was only due to the fact that there were so good?

 

[msf22b]

Do I not recall, that as a 2-seed last season, we played a one-seed in the elite-8 and two #1’s in the final-4.

I can’t imagine that this season’s matchups will be (theoretically) as challenging as that…regardless of committee bias (if there is any)

Of course, in reality, any matchup might be challenging.