Early SEC 23-24 season predictions

[dws3665]

I think Arkansas is going to be electric with their guard play, but I do think its a sincere question on who's going to be able to be competitive in the paint. We know Arkansas has guards who are quick and able to generate a lot of offense. But the Lack of an interior presence (rebounding and defense) is a major concern for Arkansas at this point. I was very high on Dauda coming out of HS but waiting and see how she will be able to handle a bigger role inside this coming year.

As is every Hog fan. I was really hoping to see us land some help from the portal, but it certainly seems at this point that Neighbors is willing to roll with Dauda and Ellis in the post.
I don't think Maryam was fully healthy this past year. I am hopeful that another off-season of rehab will get her back to her potential.

 

[Bone Dog]

Any thoughts on why Wolfenbarger isn’t an effective post player?

 

[amb3096]

Any thoughts on why Wolfenbarger isn’t an effective post player?

Because she's not a post player. She's a wing who lost her shooting touch.

 

[Bone Dog]

Because she's not a post player. She's a wing who lost her shooting touch.

I already got that. She’s listed as a 6’5” guard. Why isn’t she a post? At least a high post? That length is an asset in the paint or at the top of the key or the elbow, but it can be a liability on the perimeter if it entails lack of quickness.

 

[dws3665]

She is still adjusting to her massive growth spurt, imo. Her shot is just absurdly flat most of the time, and she is really struggling with it. She's improved her off-ball movement and she is becoming a pretty solid defender.

 

[GamecockFam]

I think you have that wrong. Barnum's biggest weakness is her defense. She is very crafty with the ball and can score in a number of ways, as long as she isn't guarded by someone like Boston. But on defense, she is pretty average.

Oh I know it was a weakness but she was probably the best y'all had on last year's team. She brought that x factor that I haven't seen from any other post on last year's team.

 

[GamecockFam]

Thanks for the chart of the potential starting lineups for the consensus top 7 teams of what should clearly be the best conference (for the top half) in the country this year. As visitingcock pointed out, South Carolina's quantity of quality depth is immense; however LSU has some nice pieces off the bench, as do the LVs.

It will be really interesting to see how Morrow fits in as her best attribute of offensive rebounding is somewhat mitigated by being duplicated by Reese and her height in SEC play, etc. Maybe she will continue to develop her outside game, but last year that resulted in extremely high usage, low efficiency, and not great results for her team. Her usage won't be as high either with Van Lith, Angel, Williams, Flau'Jae, etc.

Generally, it takes a while to incorporate a lot of quality transfers as we saw with Tennessee who couldn't beat any of their quality nonconference foes last year. LSU went the other route and chose not to play any, which probably resulted in less team doubt and turmoil.

As of now:

1. LSU (I have too much respect for Kim, even compared to other great coaches in this conference)
2. SC (good chance that I move them to #1)
3. Tenn
4. MSU
5. A&M
6. Ole Miss
7. Ark
8. Bama
9. GA
10. Auburn
11. Mizzou
12. Florida
13. Vanderbilt
14. Kentucky

I don't mean this as a slight to your rankings and this is more of a general comment but your ranking of Auburn and Mizzou got me thinking about this...

Auburn, Mizzou, and Kentucky look to be on the downward spiral. Do they have any exciting players on those teams this next season? I really think all three could be candidates for last place in conference. All three of those coaches may be fired by the end of next season.

 

[dws3665]

While the top of the conference seems to be getting a lot better, the bottom of the conference seems to be weakening. @GamecockFam mentions Auburn, Mizzou, and Kentucky. I'd lump in Florida, too.

Mizzou's most exciting players: Hayley Frank, maybe Fr Grace Slaughter?

Auburn's most exciting players: Their 2023-24 roster indicates that Scott-Grayson is coming back (as does a post on her Insta), though ... how? She ought to be out of eligibility. She has played the 3 years of eligibility it was reported that she had. Pairing her with Mingo-Young might be interesting.

Kentucky - Maddie Scherr and Eniya Russell?

Florida - Zippy Brougton returning from injury, Leilani Correa, RaShya Kyle? Matharu?

These could be some very weak teams.

 

[militarydog]

Oh I know it was a weakness but she was probably the best y'all had on last year's team. She brought that x factor that I haven't seen from any other post on last year's team.

I’ll be interested to see how she does paired with J Carter next season. She will be often matched against smaller but quicker players. She should be fine on offense but I want to see how she moves her feet on defense.

 

[YoDore]

She is still adjusting to her massive growth spurt, imo. Her shot is just absurdly flat most of the time, and she is really struggling with it. She's improved her off-ball movement and she is becoming a pretty solid defender.

Oh I know it was a weakness but she was probably the best y'all had on last year's team. She brought that x factor that I haven't seen from any other post on last year's team.

I was hoping coach Neighbors might take a second look at Amauri Williams. I think he offered her in high school. Looks like she has committed to Prairie View A&M. No offense to either side in the transaction, but that really surprises me.

 

[dws3665]

I got the impression during her original recruitment that there were some bridges burned between Williams and Arkansas. I was not surprised she didn't end up back in Fayetteville, but ... I share your surprise about her final destination. I sort of expected her to end up at one of a couple other in-state schools. Wish her very well at PVAMU.

 

[Tangential]

I don't mean this as a slight to your rankings and this is more of a general comment but your ranking of Auburn and Mizzou got me thinking about this...

Auburn, Mizzou, and Kentucky look to be on the downward spiral. Do they have any exciting players on those teams this next season? I really think all three could be candidates for last place in conference. All three of those coaches may be fired by the end of next season.

No slight taken. I'm thinking that there will be noticeable dropoffs between #7 & #8 as well as #9 & #10. Maybe I should consider bumping Vandy, but I believe that they are losing Harbison, Garraud, Williams (previously alluded mid-season suspension), & Chambers from a not so good team. I know they are getting Cambridge (yr 6) & Moore back as well as adding Oliver & Pissott, but YoDore do you think that they are (significantly) better than the other 4 predicted cellar dwellers?

I really like Matharu, but FL has been depleted too. Auburn picked up some nice pieces through the portal and high school. Really surprised how quickly KY (yes losing Howard and to a lesser extent Edwards is kinda significant) & Mizzou have fallen in less than 2 years. After all, they were the only 2 teams to defeat SC during their title season.

 

[YoDore]

No slight taken. I'm thinking that there will be noticeable dropoffs between #7 & #8 as well as #9 & #10. Maybe I should consider bumping Vandy, but I believe that they are losing Harbison, Garraud, Williams (previously alluded mid-season suspension), & Chambers from a not so good team. I know they are getting Cambridge (yr 6) & Moore back as well as adding Oliver & Pissott, but YoDore do you think that they are (significantly) better than the other 4 predicted cellar dwellers?

Significantly better than Missouri, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn? No way. Better? Maybe. A decade worth of disappointment has made me very cautious about my expectations. I’ll white knuckle a 10-point lead with a minute left in the game.

This could be coach Ralph’s best all-around team. Her first season she started with 10 players on a team that lost three starters to transfer before Shea was hired. Most of the players she inherited had actually played very little college basketball due to injuries and a season shortened to eight games because of covid. Taking all that into account, I’ve said what coach Ralph faced was more build than rebuild. I stand by that. This program was in dire condition.

Year two she started with nine players (eventually eight with the loss of Williams), and this time it was a team that lost four starters to transfer (Brinae Alexander), and pre-season injury (Cambridge, Moore and Kaylon Smith). It’s not like rebuilding at a school like Vandy isn’t already tough enough. She faced some enormous and unexpected obstacles.

I say all this just to demonstrate why I feel this could be her best team in her three-year tenure. For one thing, she has 13 players. For another, she finally will have some size with six of the 13 players listed at 6’2 or more. Also, and this is my favorite thing, she has some shooters. Some combination of Iyana Moore, Justine Pissott, Agata Makurat, Jada Brown and Ryanne Allen should be on target in any given game. I’m hoping that allows the coaches to be a bit more creative on offense.

Questions abound. After yet another surgery (3 for ACL tears, 1 for torn achilles), Jordyn Cambridge will try again to play her final season of college basketball. Will she still have the quickness and strength to be a defensive stopper? Will Iyana Moore, an elite three-point shooter, return to form after missing all last season following ACL surgery. Nine of the 13 players are freshmen and sophomores. How will those youngsters fare against the physical specimens of the SEC? There is much to be settled, but I feel the true rebuild, in terms of personnel, can start this year.

So, I have the tiniest seeds of optimism. Sorta. Kinda. Maybe. Please.

 

[Tangential]

Significantly better than Missouri, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn? No way. Better? Maybe. A decade worth of disappointment has made me very cautious about my expectations. I’ll white knuckle a 10-point lead with a minute left in the game.

This could be coach Ralph’s best all-around team. Her first season she started with 10 players on a team that lost its three best starters to transfer before Shea was hired. Most of the players she inherited had actually played very little college basketball due to injuries and a season shortened to eight games because of covid. Taking all that into account, I’ve said what coach Ralph faced was more build than rebuild. I stand by that. This program was in dire condition.

Year two she started with nine players (eventually eight with the loss of Williams), and this time it was a team that lost four starters to transfer (Brinae Alexander), and pre-season injury (Cambridge, Moore and Kaylon Smith). It’s not like rebuilding at a school like Vandy isn’t already tough enough. She faced some enormous and unexpected obstacles.

I say all this just to demonstrate why I feel this could be her best team in her three-year tenure. For one thing, she has 13 players. For another, she finally will have some size with six of the 13 players listed at 6’2 or more. Also, and this is my favorite thing, she has some shooters. Some combination of Iyana Moore, Justine Pissott, Agata Makurat, Jada Brown and Ryanne Allen should be on target in any given game. I’m hoping that allows the coaches to be a bit more creative on offense.

Questions abound. After yet another surgery (3 for ACL tears, 1 for torn achilles), Jordyn Cambridge will try again to play her final season of college basketball. Will she still have the quickness and strength to to a defensive stopper? Will Iyana Moore, an elite three-point shooter, return to form after missing all last season following ACL surgery. Nine of the 13 players are freshmen and sophomores. How will those youngsters fare against the physical specimens of the SEC? There is much to be settled, but I feel the true rebuild, in terms of personnel, can start this year.

So, I have the tiniest seeds of optimism. Sorta. Kinda. Maybe. Please.

Thank you for the in-depth response and the appropriate mix of objectivity and subjectivity that you exhibit in your posts. Size and shooting is never a bad place to start and hopefully most stay through their senior year, so the youth can be developed together.

Some people on this board might not remember how they produced quality teams for a couple of decades under Foster & Balcomb, but were overshadowed by various conference rivals, especially their neighbors to the east. It would be fun to have Vandy soar back to prominence, but it will be even more difficult with the SEC arrival of Vic & Jennie in '24.

 

[Tangential]

Thanks for the chart of the potential starting lineups for the consensus top 7 teams of what should clearly be the best conference (for the top half) in the country this year. As visitingcock pointed out, South Carolina's quantity of quality depth is immense; however LSU has some nice pieces off the bench, as do the LVs.

It will be really interesting to see how Morrow fits in as her best attribute of offensive rebounding is somewhat mitigated by being duplicated by Reese and her height in SEC play, etc. Maybe she will continue to develop her outside game, but last year that resulted in extremely high usage, low efficiency, and not great results for her team. Her usage won't be as high either with Van Lith, Angel, Williams, Flau'Jae, etc.

Generally, it takes a while to incorporate a lot of quality transfers as we saw with Tennessee who couldn't beat any of their quality nonconference foes last year. LSU went the other route and chose not to play any, which probably resulted in less team doubt and turmoil.

As of now:

1. LSU (I have too much respect for Kim, even compared to other great coaches in this conference)
2. SC (good chance that I move them to #1)
3. Tenn
4. MSU
5. A&M
6. Ole Miss
7. Ark
8. Bama
9. GA
10. Auburn
11. Mizzou
12. Florida
13. Vanderbilt
14. Kentucky

Due to the Alisa Williams transfer announcement ( jk), I'm flipping #1 & #2 (also moving Vandy to #11 based on @YoDore analysis).

Actually, the more I think about it, #1: I'm guessing that Dawn takes the leash off Raven and allows her to run the most fast-paced and exciting (not best) SC team ever. She will be in amazing condition and they have an abundance of talent that can be shuttled in to run with her, #2: extrapolating Cardoso's vast improvement from year #1 to #2 in Columbia, & 3: maybe most importantly, when 2 teams are very close, it is psychologically advantageous to be the hunter instead of the hunted.

 

[Coler]

Due to the Alisa Williams transfer announcement, I'm flipping #1 & #2 (also moving Vandy to #11 based on @YoDore analysis).

Actually, the more I think about it, #1: I'm guessing that Dawn takes the leash off Raven and allows her to run the most fast-paced and exciting (not best) SC team ever. She will be in amazing condition and they have an abundance of talent that can be shuttled in to run with her, #2: extrapolating Cardoso's vast improvement from year #1 to #2 in Columbia, & 3: maybe most importantly, when 2 teams are very close, it is psychologically advantageous to be the hunter instead of the hunted.

Alisa Williams was a freshman who hardly played last year and wasn't going to see the floor this season either.

 

[SCGamecock]

Not sure the Alisa Williams transfer announcement moves the needle for LSU.

 

[Tangential]

Not sure the Alisa Williams transfer announcement moves the needle for LSU.

Alisa Williams was a freshman who hardly played last year and wasn't going to see the floor this season either.

I edited it -- better? I did start my next paragraph with "Actually." I thought it was obvious-- glory be.

I was hoping to elicit conversation from my 2nd paragraph.

 

[Bone Dog]

I’ll just put my 2 cents in here: I think SC is still the team to beat in the SEC. I expect them to finish undefeated in conference. I’m not sure how may more years this will be true, but I find it hard to bet against them for the present.

Although I have been critical of her in-game coaching, I think Dawn is supremely good at program-building and developmental training, and she’s done it all mainly in the old fashioned way, through recruiting. This bodes extremely well for the near future.

 

[Tangential]

I’ll just put my 2 cents in here: I think SC is still the team to beat in the SEC. I expect them to finish undefeated in conference. I’m not sure how may more years this will be true, but I find it hard to bet against them for the present.

Although I have been critical of her in-game coaching, I think Dawn is supremely good at program-building and developmental training, and she’s done it all mainly in the old fashioned way, through recruiting. This bodes extremely well for the near future.

I completely agree with your assessments regarding Coach Staley. I think that an undefeated season is a bold prediction as 3 through 7 look much better this year (and obviously LSU is loaded with a great in-game coach).

Looking at my predicted 3 & 4 teams, I think that Tennessee will incorporate their transfers more seamlessly than last year, especially Destinee, who I anticipate being a fan favorite as both a facilitator as well as a scorer with a high basketball IQ and a comfortable Rickea should have an incredible year, helping her WNBA stock. I have been critical of Coach Purcell's in-game coaching, but I think that having Lauren Park-Lane as a 5th year point guard will cover-up some of those deficiencies and they have a really nice blend of returnees, transfers, and freshmen.

 

[jdote33]

I’ll just put my 2 cents in here: I think SC is still the team to beat in the SEC. I expect them to finish undefeated in conference. I’m not sure how may more years this will be true, but I find it hard to bet against them for the present.

Although I have been critical of her in-game coaching, I think Dawn is supremely good at program-building and developmental training, and she’s done it all mainly in the old fashioned way, through recruiting. This bodes extremely well for the near future.

Very interesting. I think they lost a lot of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 3rd.

 

[Bone Dog]

Very interesting. I think they lost a lot of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 3rd.

They did lose a lot. But I think Cardoso is ready for a breakout senior season, maybe to be the best 5 in D1, and she's got a heckuva supporting cast, and Raven looks like she's ready. I don't think anyone in the SEC can compete with Dawn's front court, and her backcourt is at least competitive with everyone else's.

Now, you may think I'm a dreamer... but if you're surprised by this, you haven't been paying attention to my other posts.

 

[visitingcock]

I’ll just put my 2 cents in here: I think SC is still the team to beat in the SEC. I expect them to finish undefeated in conference. I’m not sure how may more years this will be true, but I find it hard to bet against them for the present.

Although I have been critical of her in-game coaching, I think Dawn is supremely good at program-building and developmental training, and she’s done it all mainly in the old fashioned way, through recruiting. This bodes extremely well for the near future.

I don't see us going undefeated. First, we would have to beat LSU in Baton Rouge. I could see us losing that one. However, I could see us beating them in the SEC Tournament (in Greenville) when we will have been honed by experience.

Very interesting. I think they lost a lot of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 3rd.

We did lose a lot of talent, but there's still an abundance of talent. Probably as much or more McDonald's All Americans than anybody else even with Kitts (World Cup U-19 selection) being ineligible due to early entry into school. All 12 on the roster were top 50 with more at the top of that range and only two below top 25.

Experience is what we lost and that IS important.

My prediction is that we will split the regular season and tournament titles with LSU.

 

[Tangential]

I don't see us going undefeated. First, we would have to beat LSU in Baton Rouge. I could see us losing that one. However, I could see us beating them in the SEC Tournament (in Greenville) when we will have been honed by experience.


We did lose a lot of talent, but there's still an abundance of talent. Probably as much or more McDonald's All Americans than anybody else even with Kitts (World Cup U-19 selection) being ineligible due to early entry into school. All 12 on the roster were top 50 with more at the top of that range and only two below top 25.

Experience is what we lost and that IS important.

My prediction is that we will split the regular season and tournament titles with LSU.

Any other in-conference losses predicted? Don't forget their great team 2 years ago lost to Mizzou & KY.

But your comments and my (overlooked) 2nd paragraph are pretty much making the same arguments for SC overcoming losing an incredible amount of experienced talent. (no more joking on this thread for me, but I do plan to add analysis of my opinions regarding Ark, OM, and A&M in the next few weeks which will hopefully spur further discussion)

 

[Bone Dog]

I don't see us going undefeated. First, we would have to beat LSU in Baton Rouge. I could see us losing that one. However, I could see us beating them in the SEC Tournament (in Greenville) when we will have been honed by experience.

@visitingcock is speaking cautiously here, and rightly so, because his heart is with SC and he doesn't want to jinx it. I'm speaking disinterestedly and with nothing to lose by being wrong. And I absolutely could be wrong. SC could indeed lose a game or two in conference, but I doubt it.