Early Sagarin Rankings

[doggydaddy]

UConn #1

 

[tnvolfan65]

Is this RPI?

 

[doggydaddy]

Is this RPI?

Sagarin is not RPI. But it is a numerical formula based on stuff.

Sorry to get so technical.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Is this RPI?

Although it's too early for any models to give accurate rankings, Sagarin is FAR better than the RPI for evaluating the strength of teams.

 

[doggydaddy]

Although it's too early for any models to give accurate rankings, Sagarin is FAR better than the RPI for evaluating the strength of teams.

His are better earlier than the others. Based on more stuff.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Paying attention to Sagarin is also pretty good for adding a little pocket change now and then.

 

[ed4ourgirls]

It's a bit early for computer models to be very reliable
when they're intercomparing 345 teams. Maybe a
dozen or 15 games into the season the solutions will
be more robust.

 

[easttexastrash]

Notre Dame 2nd and Tenn 4th? If I run out of toilet paper I can just print this out.

 

[doggydaddy]

Notre Dame 2nd and Tenn 4th? If I run out of toilet paper I can just print this out.

The rankings are based on a numerical formula about stuff. When more games are played, the more relevent the stuff is.

Right now, it's a little shaky. Other than the dominance of UConn. There it's 100% accurate.

 

[alexrgct]

Basically, the more games that are played, the more data points there are, and the more connectedness there is between the data points. This ultimately drives the precision and confidence levels of the statistical model. Sagarin and Massey are generally very solid models, but they will take some time to be meaningful. Certainly, by January 1, they will be.

 

[vtcwbuff]

The rankings are based on a numerical formula about stuff. When more games are played, the more relevent the stuff is.

Right now, it's a little shaky. Other than the dominance of UConn. There it's 100% accurate.

Sagarin is always this way very early in the season. They just don't have enough stuff in the dbase yet. Once they get enough stuff together their predictor is fairly reliable, or at least it's better than pulling stuff out of dark places.

I used to (20 years ago) follow Sagarin's track record in men's bball. I have to believe that it is much better in WCBB, due to lack of parity, but I never bothered to check it out.

 

[iri10]

I don't like looking at any computer rankings, at least until the end of the non-conference play period. By that point things will at least be getting somewhat close to resembling reality.

Sagarin is my favorite of them, but at this point, some portion of their rankings are still influenced by whatever the initial rankings were at the start of the season (i.e., probably somewhat arbitrary).

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Notre Dame 2nd and Tenn 4th? If I run out of toilet paper I can just print this out.

How else does one re-supply Tyler Phommachanh? Still, I think you may be missing the point. It's numerical and based on stuff. You know. Stuff in, stuff out. The very epitome of science.

 

[OneTrickPony]

The Sagarin ratings have no past history as I understand them...that's why they differ sharply in some cases from the polls, where a substantial subjective element exists. As such, they are a good early indicator of where your team is at this point in time. For Notre Dame and Tennessee fans...I think this is great news...

The ELO Score...reflective of won-loss only (not scores)...favors teams with good won-loss records (obviously) and strong schedules. The Predictor Score...which factors in scores...favors deep teams that play hard to the end of the game. UCONN's style of play always maximizes its Predictor score...and will do so even more this year.

Most bettors use the Predictor Score with a careful eye on the ELO Score...

 

[alexrgct]

Sagarin himself says Predictor is more accurate, though I like the composite simply because I have a non-scientific bias that the more well-constructed models you consider in tandem, the more accurate the picture. And ELO is a solid model, despite not considering margin of victory.

Tennessee's early strong ranking probably has a lot to do with what seems to Jeff's model like quality wins over teams from power conferences. The same is true for Notre Dame. Once other teams start playing one another, the victors may well move ahead of both of them.

 

[Man-Man]

Am I missing something or did the rankings change? I don't see Tennesee in the top 5.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Am I missing something or did the rankings change? I don't see Tennesee in the top 5.

They get updated frequently...last one was 8:45 AM EST today...Tennessee is now 6th

 

[Man-Man]

Thanks.

 

[vtcwbuff]

The reason UTenn dropped to 6th is because their schedule rank went from #6 last week to #30 after their beatdown of lowly Alcorn St. UConn's schedule rank went from #70 to #26 because they beat a ranked opponent.

 

[meyers7]

Not only are we #1, but we are basically a +10 point favorite over everyone at home.

 

[Phil]

Syracuse ahead of Duke? Syracuse is playing well so far but I know how I'd bet on a head to head game.