Early predictions for the 2012 season

[uconnbaseball]

First, our overall record...

UMass: 27-13 win. We play a poor overall game on both sides of the ball, as we hold our offense back so we save some plays for NCSU. Our offensive line struggles, a harbinger for the rest of the year. UMass was a middle-of-the-road CAA school last year, so while they won't have enough size or speed to beat us, they are still a significant step up from the likes of Fordham, Rhode Island, etc.

NCSU: 14-10 loss. I feel our defense plays well. I am still not entirely sold on NCSU's QB Glennon, who will throw interceptions, and their running game will be overmatched by our front seven. Ultimately, our inability to run or pass the ball will do us in as O'Brien's team makes a few more plays. Note that NCSU's recruiting rankings and conservative play under Tom O'Brien resemble Edsall's UConn program. NCSU will not overmatch us or impress anyone on the board, but they will be a tough out.

At Maryland: 30-13 win. One of our best performances of the year. UMD is awful on both sides of the ball, lacking size and playmakers. CJ Brown is about as accurate as 2009 Tyler Lorenzen. Their DT Vellano will slow down our running game by himself, but we are too talented and disciplined for them. I expect Whitmer to have his first strong game as UConn's starter.

At Western Michigan: 31-17 win. This may seem like a dangerous game, but if we lose to WMU again, I will have questions about Pasqualoni's coaching ability. Western Michigan beat us because of their receiver play last year. Ravenall, Arnheim, and Jordan White have all graduated, and Carder isn't really a great quarterback. Note that not having Wreh-Wilson hurt us in this game last year, while we were unable exploit their three injured starters on their OL. Their defense is terrible.

Buffalo: 24-10 win. Similar to last year. UB's defense is a step up from WMU's, but their offense is significantly worse. We take care of business but don't gain any top 25 votes in the process.

At Rutgers: 27-10 loss. RU's defense destroys our offense while Jamison has a nice game against our run D. Revenge game. We do not match up well here. Hopefully they continue to kick the ball to Williams.

Temple: 27-20 win. Temple is strong at RB and QB, but weak on the lines. Their defense isn't as good as it was in 2010 but won't be a cakewalk. McCombs has a nice game.

At Syracuse: 21-20 win. Thriller. I don't trust Nassib to beat our secondary and their defense still lacks size. Losing Chandler Jones will hurt their run defense badly.

At USF: 27-7 loss. Ugly nightmare from the beginning. Daniels finally does something against us while our offense goes nowhere against an experienced USF defense. Bad match-up.

Pitt: 31-17 win. I love this match-up. Pitt is undersized as heck as linebacker and we should run the ball here. Sunseri lit us up last year, in my opinion, because Calvin McGee owns our defense. He didn't throw well against anyone else and I feel we slow him down. Will Graham return 100% from his injury? Pitt has too many question marks not to struggle mightily in Chryst's first year.

At Louisville: 23-14 loss. Surprisingly competitive, but we lose despite running the ball well. IMO, Strong is a better coach than Pasqualoni and Louisville has more playmakers on offense than we do.

Cincinnati: 35-14 win. Everything comes together in a fantastic conclusion to the regular season. Whitmer lights up an awful secondary, the defense stops the run and forced Legeaux into several turnovers, and Williams gets a KR touchdown. Cincinnati lost a lot from last year, including stars Wolfe and Pead. I can't see them beating us at home.

Final record: 8-4. It's a less impressive record than it looks, as we don't beat a single team with a winning record and lose badly to peer programs Rutgers and USF, but we take a positive step in the right direction for our 2013 campaign. The ACC games are pivotal. If we win both, we can be a true "surprise" team nationally. Win one, and we are in OK shape. Win none, and that WMU game becomes critical to save the season.

Next, bold (and not so bold) predictions about the strengths and weaknesses of our team...

1. We are adequate at kicker. Puyol is a highly touted recruit while Christen has a leg. We are OK here, but we will miss Teggart more than once this year.

2. The receivers don't materialize. I'm not sold on our guys yet and still think losing Kashif Moore's speed and leadership is going to be a huge blow. Michael Smith drops a lot of passes while Phillips couldn't start at BC. Williams was mostly ineffective at wideout last year (Buffalo being the exception) while the young guys are unproven. I see no go-to guys here. Hopefully Bryce McNeil is as good as advertised.

3. Taylor Mack is the comeback player of the year and gives us three quality corners to choose from.

4. OL struggles all year, especially in pass protection. It was mediocre last year with Petrus and Ryan in the line-up. You don't lose that kind of talent and improve, even with another year in the new system.

5. Whitmer is slightly below average at QB, comparable to 2007 Lorenzen or 2009 Frazer. He throws 15 interceptions, but bombs for 2,600 yards without taking as many sacks as McEntee did. He will be no worse than average by 2013.

6. Someone emerges as a competent back-up running back. Not sure who. Joe Williams didn't play much in the spring game, but Des seems to love him. Then again, Des has proven to be a bit of a sunshine pumper over the years.

7. The defense takes a step forward under Don Brown, much like Maryland's did from 2009 to 2010. The run defense isn't as good without Reyes and Martin, but still finishes in the top 30 nationally. The secondary isn't good, but isn't as inept as last year. We also will force more turnovers.

8. One of our linebackers makes an All-American team. I feel it will be Moore. Guy is an athletic beast. I expect Donahue will make a positive impact on the D as well.

9. Kickoff coverage remains a huge problem. I also hate our wedge blocking schemes on kick-off returns, though Williams will circumvent that.

10. The Boneyard develops a 200 page "Fire Paul Pasqualoni" thread after the NCSU loss that runs through the entire season. Dissenters mysteriously disappear after UConn victories and reappear when UConn loses again. Paul Pasqualoni wins Big East Coach of the Year, as voted upon by his peers.

 

[UConnDan97]

Okay, I'll bite. I have a couple of problems with your preseason synopsis:

1) So out of Cincy, Syracuse, Temple, Maryland, West. Mich., and Pitt, you are saying NONE of them end the season with a winning record??

2) You say that the defense takes a step forward under Don Brown, and I think the entire Boneyard thinks that Whitmer has the ability to take the QB position forward. I also think that we are going to at least be as good if not better at both WR and RB. So having said all that...you still think we lose to Rutgers by 17 and USF by 20??? Really? So we will be good enough to beat Pitt by two touchdowns, Cincy by THREE touchdowns, and Maryland by 17 points, but we are going to get smoked by two conference foes that we always play tough (one of which WE SMOKED last year)? Gotcha.

I like the effort, though.

 

[uconnbaseball]

Okay, I'll bite. I have a couple of problems with your preseason synopsis:

1) So out of Cincy, Syracuse, Temple, Maryland, West. Mich., and Pitt, you are saying NONE of them end the season with a winning record??

Exactly what I am saying. Cincy and WMU were completely gutted by graduation, Pitt doesn't have the players to run Chryst's system effectively, and Maryland and Syracuse play overwhelming schedules. Temple may finish .500.

2) You say that the defense takes a step forward under Don Brown, and I think the entire Boneyard thinks that Whitmer has the ability to take the QB position forward. I also think that we are going to at least be as good if not better at both WR and RB. So having said all that...you still think we lose to Rutgers by 17 and USF by 20??? Really? So we will be good enough to beat Pitt by two touchdowns, Cincy by THREE touchdowns, and Maryland by 17 points, but we are going to get smoked by two conference foes that we always play tough (one of which WE SMOKED last year)? Gotcha.

I feel that we will be somewhat similar at RB and WR, and the losses on the OL will stunt our offense's production. UConn is traditionally much better at home than on the road, and I feel USF and Rutgers are much better than Cincy and Pitt. Our record will improve because our OOC is weaker on paper than last year while our defense will improve.

 

[Dann]

so some one told you the keg was yingling and at first taste you drank keystone. i hate those nights.

thanks for the read. my thoughts:
-rutgers has a new coach and no all world(but not really) playmaker, rebuild year i think.
-usf could be the real deal this year and bj could break out. they get this media every year tho and end up close but not enough late in the year losing a key game or 3. i have faith in skip as usf has built a great ath dept very quick in all sports. its time for fball to have that breakthru year. without geno/wvu this could be theres. i see this being uconns biggest game. we should go 4-1 or 5-0 ooc. if we go 3-2 or less then the season is a building season with issues etc... but a 4-1 or 5-0(has to be a l to ncst) and a good start in big east play(easily possible with ruty in year 1 and temple extemely young) could mark usf vs uconn as a ranked matchup/big game for the league.
-ncst comes to the rent. given the past 12 months, i have a feeling this fanbase is going to want blood. this could be bc like foaming of the mouths in the parking lot as acc hate comes to a all time high in this state. beat up umass as a welcome to fbs and the fanbase picks up steem. whitmer is the guy and so on...
-cincy lost alot, but has major depth from great recruiting, dont sleep.
-lville has the potential to be a monster this year if everything goes right. but if 75%goes right they are a 8-4/9-3 team. our 3rd toughest game. ncst is 2nd in my mind btw...
- i dont know what to think of cuse to be honest, no a clue. they have a tough scedule, but even if they take some lumps becuase of it they will be at home vs us for the last time they think. could be a trap.
-pitt is the wildcard team in the big east this year i think. they could be great, they could be brutal. time will tell at rb...
-temple is very young


-i'm going to wait until later in the summer to post my thoughts i think. but based on what u said with the positions improving or not, 8-4 is a good 2nd year for PP. to be honest my expectations are a bit higher as i see a usf vs uconn showdown of 2 ranked or top30 teams.

 

[pj]

If it's really the case that the WRs don't materialize, the OL struggles, Whitmer is below average, and the secondary isn't good, then 8-4 would be terrific. I expect 9-3 (USF, Louisville, one of NC State or Rutgers), see a chance of 10-2. I think Whitmer will be average, the OL will lack depth but will come together, and the receivers will be better (more depth, more threats) even if no individual receiver is as good as Kash.

 

[whaler11]

First reaction: that is a terrible schedule.
Second reaction: they better win at least 7 against that mess

 

[jbdphi]

Before we all go off drinking the Kool-Aid, remember how people last year were chalking up the games against W Michigan, Vandy and Iowa State as surefire W's and the focus was on whether we would be able to beat WVU or not. A 4-1 OOC record was considered to be the minimum expected.

I think both Cincy and Pitt have the potential to be much better than you are giving them credit for and Temple could be worse. Our historical performance on the road has been pretty poor and my biggest fear is that Maryland on the road will be far tougher than you believe it will be. A loss there, if it happens, would create a "Fire HCPP" thread that will reach epic proportions.

This time last year I was saying that I was scared that we had lost our starting QB, leading WR, both of our top RBs, both our starting OG's and two great LB's so while we had a lot of players returning, the ones that weren't were incredibly important. This time around, I think we're comparatively better off at the offensive skill positions but the OL is a huge question mark. If the OL can firm up quickly and Bennett stays healthy (huge question mark) we could be pretty good. If the line plays like it did during the Spring Game (I know, that was a mixed jumble of players switching jerseys), I'm scared. I feel much better about the defense. We'll still give up the occasional big play but I think we'll be significantly improved over last year even having lost some key parts of the DL.

But Defense by itself cannot win all your games. You still need to put at least a few points on the board and we're not going to blow anyone out unless its via defensive or special team scores (like Rutgers last year). Thankfully I don't think any of the teams we play this year stand out to me as having an incredibly high-powered offense other than maybe Cincinnati. I expect a lot of close games and a lot of heartburn this season but I'm not smart enough to know what's going to happen every week. I'll leave that to the rest of you prognosticators .

 

[uconndogs]

Not my official prediction for the season, but I would consider 8 wins a very good season and 6 or 7 meeting expectations. Anything 9 or over would be terrific.

The biggest question mark I see to this point is the OL. We need to keep some combination of two of Bennet, Masters and Friend healthy and on the field. Otherwise we are going to play some real pups at tackle and that is not a good spot to be either inexperienced or undersized - and that is what we will be if two of those guys go down at the same time. Given Bennet's history and Masters recent health issues I would think this is a major concern for the coaching staff. I'm really hoping that Brown and Guifford are ready. Hemmingway and Nwokejie just seem to small at this point.

I actually think the interior of the line will be fine.

 

[whaler11]

Six wins is pathetic. UConn should not lose to MAC teams. It should not happen Finishing 3-6 against the rest of that schedule is an embarrassment. Syracuse, Temple, Maryland....

 

[johnhuskies95]

BJ Daniels still has eligibility? WTF?

 

[UConnDan97]

BJ Daniels still has eligibility? WTF?

Doesn't it seem like it was eight or nine years ago when Matt Grothe was their quarterback?!? Amazing. BJ had better be finishing up his PhD by now...

 

[uconndogs]

Six wins is pathetic. UConn should not lose to MAC teams. It should not happen Finishing 3-6 against the rest of that schedule is an embarrassment. Syracuse, Temple, Maryland....

I agree to an extent. The defense alone could be enough to carry us to 6 or 7 wins against this schedule. That said, the offense is largely an unknown especially with the questions on the line. I hear 9 or more wins and to me that means the offense really clicks consistently against good defenses. I just don't see that.

 

[uconnbaseball]

Before we all go off drinking the Kool-Aid, remember how people last year were chalking up the games against W Michigan, Vandy and Iowa State as surefire W's and the focus was on whether we would be able to beat WVU or not. A 4-1 OOC record was considered to be the minimum expected.

I don't think many people expected Vandy and ISU to be sure fire wins. Both overachieved last year, which no one foresaw.

I think both Cincy and Pitt have the potential to be much better than you are giving them credit for and Temple could be worse. Our historical performance on the road has been pretty poor and my biggest fear is that Maryland on the road will be far tougher than you believe it will be. A loss there, if it happens, would create a "Fire HCPP" thread that will reach epic proportions.

We do stink on the road, but Maryland is going to be really bad (Duke 2007 bad).

This time last year I was saying that I was scared that we had lost our starting QB, leading WR, both of our top RBs, both our starting OG's and two great LB's so while we had a lot of players returning, the ones that weren't were incredibly important. This time around, I think we're comparatively better off at the offensive skill positions but the OL is a huge question mark. If the OL can firm up quickly and Bennett stays healthy (huge question mark) we could be pretty good. If the line plays like it did during the Spring Game (I know, that was a mixed jumble of players switching jerseys), I'm scared. I feel much better about the defense. We'll still give up the occasional big play but I think we'll be significantly improved over last year even having lost some key parts of the DL.

Agreed. On the OL, the Air Force and PSU transfers will be players to watch.

But Defense by itself cannot win all your games. You still need to put at least a few points on the board and we're not going to blow anyone out unless its via defensive or special team scores (like Rutgers last year). Thankfully I don't think any of the teams we play this year stand out to me as having an incredibly high-powered offense other than maybe Cincinnati. I expect a lot of close games and a lot of heartburn this season but I'm not smart enough to know what's going to happen every week. I'll leave that to the rest of you prognosticators .

 

[pj]

I hear 9 or more wins and to me that means the offense really clicks consistently against good defenses. I just don't see that.

Last year's team scored 115 points (28.8 points per game) in its final four games against Big East competition (Syracuse, Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati). They'll be upgraded at QB, WR, and RB. They'll have another year in the system. Why shouldn't we expect them to score 28 points a game this season? If so the defense should be good enough to carry them to 9 wins.

Of course, the OL could blow up and all bets would be off. But it's May, let's be optimistic.

 

[Dann]

12, maybe 13 wins next year i say. that last game vs texas is going to be a tough one.

 

[HuskyBandDad]

Who transferred from Air Force ?

 

[Dann]

Who transferred from Air Force ?

Kyle Bockeloh

went there, didn't stay and went home. pp on the trail got him here in jan.

 

[HuskyBandDad]

Kyle Bockeloh

went there, didn't stay and went home. pp on the trail got him here in jan.

Thanks

 

[uconnbill]

keys to the season

The offensive line staying healthy, especially the starters. If that happens then I think UConn will have a good season as long as the defense doesn't blow up.

Defensive backs might be the best in the Big East and will help UConn win a game or two this season.

special teams need to be consistent on coverage and returns.

UConn should win seven games at least. But won't pick a total till the end of August.

 

[CTMike]

12, maybe 13 wins next year i say. that last game vs texas is going to be a tough one.

Someone had to say it!

 

[Dann]

Someone had to say it!

pre season northeast football rankings top 10
1) giants
2) uconn
3) tebow
4) bills
5) rutgers
6) cuse
7) navy
8) jets
9) army
10) yale

voters: rutgersal, iv99, observer, southtampabill, ruprincess, icebear, huskyfandan

 

[UConnDan97]

pre season northeast football rankings top 10
1) giants
2) uconn
3) tebow
4) bills
5) rutgers
6) cuse
7) navy
8) jets
9) army
10) yale

voters: rutgersal, iv99, observer, southtampabill, ruprincess, icebear, huskyfandan

That is such crap, Dan!! Why, because the Giants won it last year?? They are overrated. 1) UConn, 2) Giants, 3) Sanchez-Jets, 4) Rutgers, 5) Tebow-Jets. You fill in the rest...

 

[Dann]

That is such crap, Dan!! Why, because the Giants won it last year?? They are overrated. 1) UConn, 2) Giants, 3) Sanchez-Jets, 4) Rutgers, 5) Tebow-Jets. You fill in the rest...

first off i hate hate hate hate the giants, im a 49ers fan. but before we voted iv99 told me the 49ers wern't in the aau so i couldnt vote for them. based on the giants superbowl i guess the rest of the voters saw them as #1 pre season. i would argue that there playmakes both left and joined my niners. my ballot had the giants at #4 right after wne at #3. they had a killer year last year and bring back 90% of there team coming off a great bowl win and a thumping of a team in europe this spring. i had uconn #1 and navy #2. the od thing in all this is everyone left off psu. they didn't get any votes. must be a portest thing for the children. bill had cuse #1, #2 and #5 in his poll which is why they cracked the top 10. i voted bc #5 becuase the more uconn fans tell the media how good they are, the longer the funeral is up there.

 

[UConnDan97]

first off i hate hate hate hate the giants, im a 49ers fan. but before we voted iv99 told me the 49ers wern't in the aau so i couldnt vote for them.

I don't know if Iv99 will ever be able to live that thread down...

 

[J187Money]

I agree with 8-4, but I don't think we are blown out by anyone.