yea I wouldn't expect that but if his current play holds steady he should be a lock for a top of the 2nd round/40s type and get a guaranteed deal like AJ got. just can't fall off of a cliff again like last year.
In the most loaded draft of those 3 years too. Makes little sense.
Well he has a high floor. Which might be a worth a bottom third first round pick. Go back and look at the first round of the last few drafts. Lots of duds. Picking outside the top half of the first round is a crapshoot pretty similar to the 2nd round draft choices.
AK is 6'8 in shoes with a 6'11 wingspan, and after the weight in muscle he's put on he's gotta be around 225-230 now, he's not guarding 2s in the league unless it's a switch and if he does stick it will be as a 3-4.
Yes, the NBA draft has changed a bit. It's always about landing a star in the lottery, at least a future starter. You project and draft for upside. Occasionally those guys also have a high floor, like Flagg. Then teams start making decisions about (a) guys who still have upside and are raw or (b) older guys who have a decent shot of becoming reliable bench players. Using the Celtics as an example Walsh was type (a). The next year they took Baylor S. who was type (b). AK is clearly type (b). Go back 10-12 years and the type (b) guys were almost all second rounders. Lately more have gone late 1st. I think the salary cap and tax penalty is causing teams to prioritize cheap rookie contract depth on the bench. NIL is also causing more of those guys to stay in school giving teams a longer look at them.
And even with Cam he has to be a 50/40/90 guy to do this.
My main concern with Alex comes from what @aceboon mentioned above. He's not quick enough to defend 1s or 2s. Many NBA 3s would blow by him but there are enough less athletic shooters in the league that he can get by. Then there's 4s, where he gives up a lot of size and athleticism to many of them. You like him on LeBron? Giannis? Banchero? Mobley?
Outside of last year his efficiency has been fine imo, this year easily his best so far but AK was pretty efficient last year as well starting out in BE play before he nosedived. The easy NBA comp for AK is Georges Niang, Niang was a better college player and had the ball in his hands more, but in the NBA he scaled down to a corner boy and a connector. Same type of role AK will play if he sticks, Niang also posted similar pre-draft measurements as AK did when he went through the combine in 2024.
Don’t understand saying he hasn’t been efficient here. Came within a whisker of being a 50/40/90 guy as a sophomore, and only feel from that level last year after being concussed. And now he’s around those levels again healthy.