Does UConn Have a Serious Rebounding Problem?

[JoePgh]

In the last week or two, a consensus seems to have emerged (possibly including Geno as well as less informed talking heads) that while UConn is very good in many aspects of basketball, it is at best undistinguished and perhaps even weak in the area of rebounding. One of the local newspaper reporters who cover UConn WBB as their beat noted that despite excellent statistics on shooting percentage, 3-point production, scoring defense, and several other statistical categories, UConn's rebounding margin is about 100th in the NCAA, and other rebounding statistics are in the same mediocre range.

Yesterday's Marquette game in Milwaukee did nothing to disprove that hypothesis. Apart from the rebounding stats from yesterday's box score, it was obvious from watching (especially in the first half) that UConn was getting basically nothing on the offensive boards. Sarah Strong had one rebound in the entire game (almost unimaginable). KK was UConn's top rebounder with 6. KK, Ashlynn, Azzi, and K9 had a combined total of 14 rebounds (but just 3 offensive rebounds) while the "twin towers" of Serah and Jana had a total of 5 rebounds in 26 combined minutes, although Serah was the only UConn player with multiple offensive rebounds (she had 2!).

It's worth noting that the first UConn - Marquette game in December showed an entirely different pattern. In that game, Sarah had 7 rebounds, Serah had 6, and Jana had 7 including 6 offensive rebounds. UConn won the rebounding battle by 37-27, and won the battle for offensive boards by 16-13. Three differences are obvious: (a) the December game was in Connecticut; (b) Sarah wasn't sick; and (c) Blanca played 22 minutes and had 4 rebounds. Do these factors fully account for the difference?

UConn's poor rebounding was not seen in other games against quality opponents:

Louisville (neutral): Total rebounds 47-43 in UConn's favor; offensive rebounds 15-12 UConn
Florida State (home): Total 40-27 UConn; offensive 12-10 UConn
Ohio State (home): Total 40-31 UConn; offensive 14-9 UConn
Michigan (Mohegan): Total 47-43 UConn; offensive 15-13 Michigan
Southern Cal on road: Total 41-33 UConn; offensive 10-7 UConn
Iowa (Barclay Center): Total 34-25 Iowa; offensive 10-9 Iowa
Notre Dame (home): Total 39-24 UConn; offensive 7-2 UConn
Tennessee (home): Total 39-30 UConn; offensive 11-9 Tennessee

So UConn won the total rebounding battle against all of these major opponents except Iowa, and lost the offensive rebound margin in 4 out of 8 games, but not by a big margin in any of these games. So the rebounding performance (or lack thereof) against Marquette in Milwaukee was much worse than against any of the ranked opponents.

I don't have the answer to this puzzle, but I assume the answer lies in the three factors mentioned above. This is certainly worth watching in the next few games. But the good news is that it does not seem to be a chronic problem against quality opponents.

 

[Puppy Love]

I think it is the more nuanced discussion than just how UConn compares to other schools in terms of pure numbers. In order to get a rebound, you need either a missed basket for your own team, or for the other team to have missed a shot. UConn is number one in field goal percentage, which seems to imply less opportunities for offensive boards. They are also number six in turnovers forced per game and number 3 in steals so less opportunities for defensive rebounds. I was more concerned with the feeling that play was flat in the last game than with any particular statistic.

 

[Stagnant]

I think we give up offensive rebounds sometimes because the defense is too good. The contested shot misses by a mile and it is a long rebound that takes a weird bounce. UConn players are all blocking out and we don’t manage to get the rebound.

I think it happened several times against Marquette.

 

[Twolf]

In the last week or two, a consensus seems to have emerged (possibly including Geno as well as less informed talking heads) that while UConn is very good in many aspects of basketball, it is at best undistinguished and perhaps even weak in the area of rebounding. One of the local newspaper reporters who cover UConn WBB as their beat noted that despite excellent statistics on shooting percentage, 3-point production, scoring defense, and several other statistical categories, UConn's rebounding margin is about 100th in the NCAA, and other rebounding statistics are in the same mediocre range.

Yesterday's Marquette game in Milwaukee did nothing to disprove that hypothesis. Apart from the rebounding stats from yesterday's box score, it was obvious from watching (especially in the first half) that UConn was getting basically nothing on the offensive boards. Sarah Strong had one rebound in the entire game (almost unimaginable). KK was UConn's top rebounder with 6. KK, Ashlynn, Azzi, and K9 had a combined total of 14 rebounds (but just 3 offensive rebounds) while the "twin towers" of Serah and Jana had a total of 5 rebounds in 26 combined minutes, although Serah was the only UConn player with multiple offensive rebounds (she had 2!).

It's worth noting that the first UConn - Marquette game in December showed an entirely different pattern. In that game, Sarah had 7 rebounds, Serah had 6, and Jana had 7 including 6 offensive rebounds. UConn won the rebounding battle by 37-27, and won the battle for offensive boards by 16-13. Three differences are obvious: (a) the December game was in Connecticut; (b) Sarah wasn't sick; and (c) Blanca played 22 minutes and had 4 rebounds. Do these factors fully account for the difference?

UConn's poor rebounding was not seen in other games against quality opponents:

Louisville (neutral): Total rebounds 47-43 in UConn's favor; offensive rebounds 15-12 UConn
Florida State (home): Total 40-27 UConn; offensive 12-10 UConn
Ohio State (home): Total 40-31 UConn; offensive 14-9 UConn
Michigan (Mohegan): Total 47-43 UConn; offensive 15-13 Michigan
Southern Cal on road: Total 41-33 UConn; offensive 10-7 UConn
Iowa (Barclay Center): Total 34-25 Iowa; offensive 10-9 Iowa
Notre Dame (home): Total 39-24 UConn; offensive 7-2 UConn
Tennessee (home): Total 39-30 UConn; offensive 11-9 Tennessee

So UConn won the total rebounding battle against all of these major opponents except Iowa, and lost the offensive rebound margin in 4 out of 8 games, but not by a big margin in any of these games. So the rebounding performance (or lack thereof) against Marquette in Milwaukee was much worse than against any of the ranked opponents.

I don't have the answer to this puzzle, but I assume the answer lies in the three factors mentioned above. This is certainly worth watching in the next few games. But the good news is that it does not seem to be a chronic problem against quality opponents.

While you are correct that rebounding isn’t UConn’s greatest strength as a team, I am pretty confident that 99.9% of other D1 women’s basketball teams would love to have the serious weaknesses that UConn has. JMO

 

[hoophuskee]

Not a serious problem with a healthy and ill-free Sarah and Blanca. They'll get beat on the boards by some teams but their team is built to shoot, press, and play fast. Every team is not perfect. There are no assurances. Last year if UCONN didn't shoot well in FF and Finals, outcomes could be different. Small ball worked because they shot well. If they didn't, they certainly weren't going to be much of a rebouding team by having Paige playing the 4 position, Azzi not known for her rebounding, and Chen not known for her rebounding.

 

[DEpup]

I think there is a rebound problem when Strong is not on the floor and Blanca is hurt.

Serah seems to not want them bad enough because a center who is on center of the year lists should be averaging 8+ rebounds per game. Frankly, I would have benched Serah after the first few minutes at Marquette. I would have given a clear instruction and then if the same thing happened at the beginning of the third, I would have benched her again. A message needs to be sent and received on her rebounding or just bench her and play small ball for the rest of the season.

Jana is streaky with rebounds. There are games where she is all over the boards and games where she isn't.

Strong and Shade are really the only intentional rebounders we have. Everyone else seems to be well I'll take it if it comes to me but I'm not going to go out of my way to get a rebound....

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Like clockwork, I look at HerHoopStats UConn history stats database at this time, when some of the annual Freakout occurs (in the form of “this [issue] is the cause of UConn’s NCAAT’s early exit”).

The issue is usually rebounding. Or free throws.

Anyway, who else can give a health check on UConn’s NCAAT worthiness than its past selves.

And yes, UConn’s rebounding and free throw % and rate are within UConn’s historical range. And other stats are noteworthy.

• Things can always improve (I conjecture that rebounding is one of those late season metamorphosis items on Geno and CD’s yearly bucket list) but the Freakout is par for the course in the fandom.

 

[donalddoowop]

Too often some of UConn's players have a habit of taking a shot when none of their teammates are under the basket. It happened Saturday. But, as I asked in another thread, how many games has UConn lost this season when they were out rebounded?

 

[Skeets]

Too often some of UConn's players have a habit of taking a shot when none of their teammates are under the basket. It happened Saturday. But, as I asked in another thread, how many games has UConn lost this season when they were out rebounded?

I get mad when a shot is taken and no one is in position to rebound. But I only get mad when the shot is missed. 😊

 

[Duncan Idaho]

How is something like offensive rebounding to improve if an offense is predicated on full court pressure and then transition leaving a big probably trailing the break or a half court offense with a big operating in the high post 20 ft from the rim?

 

[my2cents]

I don't think it's a team issue. The coaches see some individuals that need to contribute more by rebounding more.
Geno has made it clear in his comments that he feels Jana and Serah need to contribute more.

 

[HopJim]

I think there is a rebound problem when Strong is not on the floor and Blanca is hurt.

Serah seems to not want them bad enough because a center who is on center of the year lists should be averaging 8+ rebounds per game. Frankly, I would have benched Serah after the first few minutes at Marquette. I would have given a clear instruction and then if the same thing happened at the beginning of the third, I would have benched her again. A message needs to be sent and received on her rebounding or just bench her and play small ball for the rest of the season.

Jana is streaky with rebounds. There are games where she is all over the boards and games where she isn't.

Strong and Shade are really the only intentional rebounders we have. Everyone else seems to be well I'll take it if it comes to me but I'm not going to go out of my way to get a rebound....

Its more basic than some of the lengthly assessments try to point out. Sarah could be the best rebounder in the country; Ash one of the top guard rebounders. Azzi is opportunistic. Our centers are average to poor when their size is considered. When matched up against physical, athletic bigs, particulalry when Sarah is not in or not 100%, we tend to struggle a bit on the boards but most teams would as well. Few teams are perfect in every aspect of the game but as long as Sarah is ok, so is UConn.

 

[oldude]

I’m sorry, but this discussion is a little silly. The old line that, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.” is relevant to this discussion. The relevant statistic is not rebounds. It’s shot differential and shooting percentage.

On average, UConn takes over 12 shots per game more than their opponents this year while shooting a nation leading 53% from the floor to their opponents 33%. UConn also has a +12 advantage on turnovers, forcing their opponents into twice as many turnovers per game.

One final comment on rebounds. Long rebounds off of 3-pt misses are notoriously difficult to corral by the defense. UConn’s relentless defense forces opposing teams to launch shots from the perimeter.

While UConn has a significant advantage in the number of shots per game, from 3-pt range the Huskies are just about even around 630 each. UConn shoots a nation leading 40% from the arc while UConn’s opponents shoot 26%.

If you make significantly more shots than your opponents, you’re going to have far fewer opportunities for offensive rebounds. At the same time, if you significantly turn over your opponent far more than you turn it over, you’re going to have far fewer opportunities for defensive rebounds.

Unless and until UConn plays a game where the shot attempts and shooting percentage are relatively even and the Huskies also lose the rebounding battle, I’m not going to be particularly concerned.

 

[oldhusky]

I say yes and no. Compared to the best teams in the country rebounding is a relative weakness. We have good rebounders for their positions, but we either don't play them many minutes or we play them one or more positions bigger than their natural position. In essence our rebounding problem is the obvious downside to "small ball".

To a certain extent Geno has attempted to achieve an advantage in the number of possessions by concentrating mostly on the turnover differential at the expense of the rebounding difference. Small ball helps to force more turnovers and have fewer of your own, while at the same time hurting the rebounding differential.

I think some may not realize to what extent we do use smaller lineups. I looked at a web site barttorvik.com that gives what % of the time a player is in the game. If you classify our players by their natural or best position, the results are very revealing. IMO we have 3 5's on the roster, Serah (in the game 45.1%), Jana (24.8%) and Gandy of course zero. that adds up to 69.9%. Meaning that a whopping 30.1% of the time we were not even using a 5.

At the 4 we have Sarah (65.1%), Ayanna (10.9%) and Ice (2.1%), for a total of 78.1%, so we frequently don't use a 4 either. For the natural 3's, I have Blanca at (34.5%), Caroline (12.0%), and of course Morgan at zero for a total of 46.5%. Those are the three positions most responsible for rebounding.

Now of course the guard positions are drastically different, at the 2, Azzi (71.3%), Ashlynn (66.7%), Allie (46.6%) for a huge total of 184.6, and at the 1, KK (59.4%), Kayleigh (48.2%) and Kelis (13.0%), for a total of 120.6. That is a very heavy tilt towards the guards. Injuries have had an impact but much of this allocation is by choice with the obvious advantages and disadvantages.

When we don't use a 5 it might seem like a minor switch because Sarah can be very good there, but it is more than that. She might not be quite as good a rebounder compared to other 5's, but the big difference is the other moves that frequently go with that. namely moving Blanca from the 3 to the 4 were she goes from pretty good as a rebounder to maybe a slight liability, and then when Blanca isn't available for the 3, we usually use a guard who is a below average rebounder for the 3.

When Sarah is at the 5, at best we are using a 4 at the 5, a 3 at the 4, and a 2 at the 3. Small ball at three positions, and that's if Blanca is available for the 4. At Marquette we didn't have Blanca to slide over and cover backup 4 minutes, so the solution was to go even smaller, a 2 at the 4, and 40 minutes of a guard at the 3, and significant guard play instead of a 5. We were outrebounded 43-29, and had a turnover advantage of 10 vs. 22

By the way, using the same position classifications as above for that game we had zero minutes for natural 3's because Blanca, Caroline, and Morgan were all out. There were 26 minutes by the 5's, 29 minutes for 4's, 97 minutes from 2's, and 48 minutes from the 1's. Or broken down differently 55 minutes by bigs and 145 minutes by the smaller guys.

If we had a normal allocation of minutes by natural position our rebounding numbers would be much better, our turnovers likely a little higher, and our forced turnovers likely less, that is the trade off. Geno clearly doesn't yet have full confidence in the bigs not named Sarah.

I had hoped that going big would be a viable option for Geno this year, but Serah and Jana have not excelled enough for him to play Jana at the 5 and slide Serah to the 4, Sarah to the 3, and maybe even Blanca to the 2. I like having both good options in the toolbox, but for this year it looks like for some periods we might have Serah or Jana at the 5, Sarah at the 4 and Blanca at the 3. That lineup can rebound with the best teams, but of course when we substitute it is frequently a small for a big, and/or moving players up a position.

 

[Centerstream]

No. Rebounding doesn't matter. Only points scored versus points allowed matter. Every defensive rebound means a missed scoring opportunity. However, odds are that the team that has the most offensive rebounds results in the possibility of more second chance points and having more defensive rebounds results in less chance of second chance points for the other team.

 

[JellyBean]

We don't have a serious rebounding problem. If you look at the stats, we have been out rebounded 3-4 times and one tie in rebounding this season. 27-0 and facing a "serious" rebounding problem. A lot of teams would pay to be leading the nation.

Record: 27-0 (16-0, 1st in Big East WBB)

Rank: 1st in the Feb 9th AP Poll

PS/G: 89.3 (2nd of 363)

PA/G: 50.5 (1st of 363)

SRS: 52.89 (1st of 363)

SOS: 14.11 (17th of 363)

ORtg: 120.7 (3rd of 363)

DRtg: 68.3 (1st of 363)

Stats: Courtesy of Sports Reference College Basketball

 

[Bigboote]

I’m sorry, but this discussion is a little silly. The old line that, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.” is relevant to this discussion. The relevant statistic is not rebounds. It’s shot differential and shooting percentage.

On average, UConn takes over 12 shots per game more than their opponents this year while shooting a nation leading 53% from the floor to their opponents 33%. UConn also has a +12 advantage on turnovers, forcing their opponents into twice as many turnovers per game.

One final comment on rebounds. Long rebounds off of 3-pt misses are notoriously difficult to corral by the defense. UConn’s relentless defense forces opposing teams to launch shots from the perimeter.

While UConn has a significant advantage in the number of shots per game, from 3-pt range the Huskies are just about even around 630 each. UConn shoots a nation leading 40% from the arc while UConn’s opponents shoot 26%.

If you make significantly more shots than your opponents, you’re going to have far fewer opportunities for offensive rebounds. At the same time, if you significantly turn over your opponent far more than you turn it over, you’re going to have far fewer opportunities for defensive rebounds.

Unless and until UConn plays a game where the shot attempts and shooting percentage are relatively even and the Huskies also lose the rebounding battle, I’m not going to be particularly concerned.

Re: the bolded, yes, I noticed in the "horrible" rebounding game on Saturday that there was an inordinate number of clanks that went out 10-15 feet from the basket. It you're crashing the boards, ain't no way you're gonna be in position for a rebound at the foul line.

 

[YKCornelius]

Its more basic than some of the lengthly assessments try to point out. Sarah could be the best rebounder in the country; Ash one of the top guard rebounders. Azzi is opportunistic. Our centers are average to poor when their size is considered. When matched up against physical, athletic bigs, particulalry when Sarah is not in or not 100%, we tend to struggle a bit on the boards but most teams would as well. Few teams are perfect in every aspect of the game but as long as Sarah is ok, so is UConn.

HopJim, when did we match up against physical, athletic bigs this year? And when did we struggle against big, athletic bigs when Sarah was not in or not 100%? I'm not seeing any evidence of this over the entire season so far.

Nor would I characterize our centers (I presume you mean Serah, Jana and Ayanna) as "average to poor when their size is considered". Rather, I would character them as very good (Serah and Jana) and above average (Ayanna) bigs who are trying to evolve from what they learned in the past into the dynamic offensive and defensive schemes UConn plays.

I suspect you are assessing them against a paradigm reflecting how other programs historically use their bigs. Not applicable to UConn.

 

[fomalhaut]

When you're the best team in the country by a lot in shooting, passing, and defense, being a little above average in rebounding is perfectly fine. And Connecticut's numbers in the only two stats that matter (offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage) are fine. Because they're so good offensively and defensively, they're also going to be ahead in second chance points even in games their rebounding is so-so (or even poor).

 

[FanSince17]

I’m sorry, but this discussion is a little silly. The old line that, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.” is relevant to this discussion. The relevant statistic is not rebounds. It’s shot differential and shooting percentage.

On average, UConn takes over 12 shots per game more than their opponents this year while shooting a nation leading 53% from the floor to their opponents 33%. UConn also has a +12 advantage on turnovers, forcing their opponents into twice as many turnovers per game.

One final comment on rebounds. Long rebounds off of 3-pt misses are notoriously difficult to corral by the defense. UConn’s relentless defense forces opposing teams to launch shots from the perimeter.

While UConn has a significant advantage in the number of shots per game, from 3-pt range the Huskies are just about even around 630 each. UConn shoots a nation leading 40% from the arc while UConn’s opponents shoot 26%.

If you make significantly more shots than your opponents, you’re going to have far fewer opportunities for offensive rebounds. At the same time, if you significantly turn over your opponent far more than you turn it over, you’re going to have far fewer opportunities for defensive rebounds.

Unless and until UConn plays a game where the shot attempts and shooting percentage are relatively even and the Huskies also lose the rebounding battle, I’m not going to be particularly concerned.

Nice statistical analysis. One of the best features of this blog. Let me present an idea that I don't see much here.
Geno is going to fix this come hell or high water. Geno is Rembrandt, not Jackson Pollock. Geno IMO cares to his core about the aesthetics of the game. It goes back to why we even have athletics. Many reasons but one for sure is the beauty of the movement. It's why half the nation is enraptured with these women. It's a spectacle of beautiful basketball.
IMO Geno's heritage is of fast-break basketball, which believe it or not touches James Naismith. The "inventor" of this style, John McClendon had connections with Naismith. Black basketball in the 50's into the 60's before integration. Then Red Auerbach, Dean Smith (remember he started at Kansas). Philadelphia style basketball- Ramsey, Lynam, Westhead, Martelli, Auriemma, Staley...
Final points: you can't run if you can't rebound! One of the golden rules. Long rebounds from all of this "hoisting" of 3's that goes on (I'm disappointed in Creighton) has always been a problem. Our defense is not "packed in", we are spread out, so the ball shouldn't just be flying over our heads. I was taught to turn toward my man or any man really, make contact, turn toward the goal, and go after the ball. Offensive rebounding is purely, to attack quickly to an open spot and then react to the ball. Our guys at the moment are just running back on D. Bigs have to use leverage, quickness, and pivoting to find the open hole. Serah and Jana are not reacting to the initial box out. Serah gives up and Jana goes over the back. Gotta move. (Rodman) Guards do what Ash does, attack that open space. Can't believe I'm gunna say this, but if Sarah is outside in the offense, she's gotta sprint inside to get more 2nd shots. (don't strike me down)
IMO Geno will fix this because he cannot play the way he wants to play without rebounding. Can we draft Bill Russell?

 

[Jalan2121]

I believe there are stats that are foundations for winning consistently. One important stat is defensive rebounding as it serves to limit opponents shots.

• Defensive Rebounding Matters More: Approximately 13 of the last 20 NBA champions had higher defensive rebounding percentages than the league average.
• Top 10 Focus: While 60% of champions were top-10 in DRB%, a significant portion (40%) were not, showing it is not a strict requirement for winning.
• NCAA Championship Game Trends:Since 2001, the team that won the rebounding battle has won the NCAA title 15 out of 23 times.

I”ll take the high percentiles everyday. We have come to expect great things from Grno’s teams. Rebounding is about effort, anticipation, technique and desire. Uconn needs to improve here or they are more vulnerable to losing.
Box out then go get it!!
Constant pressure and pressing on defense often leaves players in poor position to rebound.

 

[Cuango]

This is a tempest in a teapot! We were clearly not our normal, healthy selves for this game while they not only played their best game of the year but also got a lot of “Oh, the ball fell right into my hands!” rebounds! Not to mention we were likely due for a “let down” game anyway! It is really hard to play your best this many games in a row.

If this kind of thing becomes a recurring problem, Geno will address it. What we really need is a healthy Sarah and Blanca! If that happens, I’m pretty sure we’ll be OK. Meanwhile, I have no doubt Geno is already dealing with this in practice. I’m pretty sure, if it is a problem, he will deal with it!

 

[DefenseBB]

Serentiy now, DefenseBB, serenity now...in other words, just ignore this thread as best you can and enjoy the fact UConn is undefeated and is the odds on Favorite to win the NCAAT with the NPOY in Sarah Strong and will have 2 players on the WBCA team. Also ignore that KK was not on the HoopHallAwards Point Guard list despite having top 4 stats against that current lot listed....serenity now....

 

[topogigio]

Too often some of UConn's players have a habit of taking a shot when none of their teammates are under the basket. It happened Saturday. But, as I asked in another thread, how many games has UConn lost this season when they were out reboun

Made the same observation, fortunately this shortcoming is overcome with their overall offensive power and defense. I do, however, would like to see more Jana in there banging and rebounding. I know she commits silly fouls sometimes, but she takes up a lot of room, and no one is going to move her out!

 

[JRRRJ]

I think there is a rebound problem when Strong is not on the floor and Blanca is hurt.

Serah seems to not want them bad enough because a center who is on center of the year lists should be averaging 8+ rebounds per game. Frankly, I would have benched Serah after the first few minutes at Marquette. I would have given a clear instruction and then if the same thing happened at the beginning of the third, I would have benched her again. A message needs to be sent and received on her rebounding or just bench her and play small ball for the rest of the season.

Jana is streaky with rebounds. There are games where she is all over the boards and games where she isn't.

Strong and Shade are really the only intentional rebounders we have. Everyone else seems to be well I'll take it if it comes to me but I'm not going to go out of my way to get a rebound....

Serah doesn't average 8+ rebounds per game because she averages less than 19 minutes per game. She does average 9.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. So if she was averaging the 30+ minutes she undoubtedly had with her previous team, she'd likely be achieving your desired production. She's also our most productive shot blocker buy a good margin, 10% more than Sarah with 40% fewer minutes.