Does The Big East Hurt Our KenPom?

[navery12]

Right but if you are expected to win by 10 and y win by 12 your rating goes up. If y are then expected to win by 12 and y win by 15 your rating goes up. Etc. so even if y keep winning but not by what the algorithm thinks y should it goes down. So the only way to increase you rating is to keep winning by more than expected…a ponzi scheme

Correct, the only way to improve your predictive ratings is to improve your play

 

[Scottobot]

No. Not being dominant hurts our rating. We are winning close games, which is preferable to losing, but we are not being consistently dominant. Games that should be easy wins are turning into stressful events. On the flip side, a few games that should have been losses turned into wins. Does that mean we tend to play down to our competition? Maybe. But we also tend to play up to our competition and beat the best teams that we play, even if our rating says we shouldn't.

Obviously it would be best to win close games that we shouldn't win AND blow out teams that we should beat. But, if that is not our reality, is it better to play down to weaker teams and win close games that we shouldn't win or blow out weaker teams and lose close games that we aren't supposed to win? I don't know. 2022/2023 was kinda like the latter and this team is the former. I guess we will see how this works out.

I agree with this, but there is a factor that the Big East refs do things to keep the games close. When UConn gets up 18 points, they let the other team foul at will with no calls, and anytime they miss on a drive to the hoop the refs reward them with FTs whether there was a foul or not.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

It amazes me that the "basic" thing that KenPom measures just goes so above so many people's heads.

Once again, KenPom just ranks teams on "NetRtg"

NetRtg is just the difference between the team's ORtg and DRtg

Both of those are the Points scored (Offense) or points allowed (Defense) indexed to 100 possessions.

The raw averages for those are adjusted for the strength of the opponent, pace of play, "luck" factor (whether a crappy shooting team has a lights-out unexpected performance). KP also has some other secret sauce adjustments, especially early-season.

So, a team can have a win, but if their offense or defense underperforms compared to their previous average, their NetRtg can go down, even in a win. And they may fall in the KP ranks. Conversely, they can win a game, improve their NetRtg slightly, but if other teams change more than them, they can fall in the ranks.

Meanwhile, other teams can do the same thing on days we don't play...All of this metric-ing is going on with multiple games going on on given days.

Its why you can see your team's NetRtg change (slightly) even on days that they are not playing. The other teams that they have played are changing, as well.

The panic some people have over ORtg currently is absurd.

We are at 25th at 121.8 adjusted Pts per 100 possessions.

The #10 offense via KP metrics is Vandy at 124.4 per 100. That's a 2.6 pts per 100 possessions difference.

There are, on average, around 65-70 possessions per game. That's a difference of about 2 pts per game.

If Solo was shooting even 32-34% from 3 this year instead of just below 30%, we'd likely have a Top 10 KP offense.

Our ORtg increased from 121.8 to 122.0 by doing absolutely nothing over the last 24h.

Maybe if we just forfeit the rest of our games we could keep climbing & even end up as a Top 10 ORtg KP offense. ;-)

 

[businesslawyer]

Our ORtg increased from 121.8 to 122.0 by doing absolutely nothing over the last 24h.

Maybe if we just forfeit the rest of our games we could keep climbing & even end up as a Top 10 ORtg KP offense. ;-)

This isn’t suspicious or a flaw. If our prior opponents have good defensive game, their defensive ratings go up and therefore our prior offensive performances against them become marginally more impressive

 

[NowInStorrs]

It doesn't help it but with our non-con schedule this year, it doesn't really matter.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

This isn’t suspicious or a flaw. If our prior opponents have good defensive game, their defensive ratings go up and therefore our prior offensive performances against them become marginally more impressive

 

[businesslawyer]

Seriously? We're this many years into bulletin board discussions and you think readers not able to hear your voice and see your body language can tell when you're being facetious? That's on the poster, not the reader. (I do it sometimes and when called out simply say "my bad.")

 

[Inyatkin]

Seriously? We're this many years into bulletin board discussions and you think readers not able to hear your voice and see your body language can tell when you're being facetious? That's on the poster, not the reader. (I do it sometimes and when called out simply say "my bad.")

So to recap, you thought when he said we should forfeit the rest of our games that he was being serious?

 

[businesslawyer]

So to recap, you thought when he said we should forfeit the rest of our games that he was being serious?

Of course not. But when he noted our increase on a night off like it was odd, why wouldn't I think that (as opposed to his solution) was serious? I guaranty you that there are some posters on here who would view our rating going DOWN on a night off as proof someone was against us or our conference.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I pity the fans who watch a win and go to look at metrics. It’s ruined your fan experience

I don't go so far as to say it ruins their fan experience, but I get the gist of your comment.

I also hold betting and the rise in its access & reporting in a more negative than favorable light.

 

[7774]

So to recap, you thought when he said we should forfeit the rest of our games that he was being serious?

That part was obviously a joke, but it wasn't clear to me at all that he actually understood why the number changed.

 

[Inyatkin]

That part was obviously a joke, but it wasn't clear to me at all that he actually understood why the number changed.

This poster had a detailed breakdown of what KP is and isn’t like three posts up, so it seemed pretty straightforward, to me

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Of course not. But when he noted our increase on a night off like it was odd, why wouldn't I think that (as opposed to his solution) was serious? I guaranty you that there are some posters on here who would view our rating going DOWN on a night off as proof someone was against us or our conference.

I literally quoted my previous post where I explained how a team's KP metrics can change even when they are not playing, based on how the teams they already played are performing as the season progresses.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Seriously? We're this many years into bulletin board discussions and you think readers not able to hear your voice and see your body language can tell when you're being facetious? That's on the poster, not the reader. (I do it sometimes and when called out simply say "my bad.")

I also put a winking smile right at the end of my sentence to make it apparently obvious I was making a joke.

;-)

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Its why you can see your team's NetRtg change (slightly) even on days that they are not playing. The other teams that they have played are changing, as well.

The panic some people have over ORtg currently is absurd.

That part was obviously a joke, but it wasn't clear to me at all that he actually understood why the number changed.

 

[7774]

This poster had a detailed breakdown of what KP is and isn’t like three posts up, so it seemed pretty straightforward, to me

Gotcha. I scroll past that person's posts if they're more than 2-3 sentences.

 

[FightOnCT]

The SEC and Big 12 just lay waste to the low majors on their schedules. The SEC in particular is dominating KenPom, and this year's conference currently has one of the highest conference ratings of all time. This despite the fact that the SEC has a losing record against the other majors (Big 10, Big 12, Big East, ACC) and is #4 in RPI, which just measures wins and losses.

Pomeroy has questioned whether his ratings should be used by the tournament selection committee because he did not build his models for the purpose they are being used for.

This is explained by the idea that while the SEC lacks teams in the elite tier, there are multiple decent or tourney-caliber teams that hover around above-average to just OK.

They had a record season last season so it’s not outlandish to believe that some level of quality was preserved over the past year.

 

[boba]

Seriously? We're this many years into bulletin board discussions and you think readers not able to hear your voice and see your body language can tell when you're being facetious? That's on the poster, not the reader. (I do it sometimes and when called out simply say "my bad.")

Any cheese to go with that whine?

 

[FearThePups]

I can’t help but notice even though we are about to move up to the #2 team in the country, it seems like every year once we get into league play our KenPom offensive efficiency #’s start a downward trend. I wish I had access to KenPom’s archives so I could go back and plot the trend. Seems like this also isn’t just a this season thing, seems to happen every year.

For the record, I’m only really concerned with how our offensive efficiency numbers change out of conference vs. in conference. My gut tells me playing all these physical teams limits our freedom of movement and hurts our offensive efficiency numbers, but I haven’t saved the weekly or game by game data to prove it. I will also say that Solo Ball is a big part of our offense and his poor play of late could have an impact on this as well.

Kenpom is crap. Who cares about this?

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Gotcha. I scroll past that person's posts if they're more than 2-3 sentences.

It’s a shame. You might learn something, my friend

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This is explained by the idea that while the SEC lacks teams in the elite tier, there are multiple decent or tourney-caliber teams that hover around above-average to just OK.

They had a record season last season so it’s not outlandish to believe that some level of quality was preserved over the past year.

But they aren't actually winning that many games. They have a losing record against the other majors, didn't play many mid-majors, and then annihilated the low majors on their schedule. That is a recipe for this year's SEC to currently be rated #6 or #7 conference of all time.

 

[uconn_jack]

Games that should be easy wins are turning into stressful events.

I honestly haven't been stressed about any games other than AZ, and that was only because we were down two starters. Even Providence I had a good feeling we'd come back and win it (we cut it closer than I'd like but I never panicked.) I feel we pass the eye test which is why I am not getting nervous even if we are playing a tight game, I just always feel we are going to win.

 

[caw]

Main difference is Torvik considers game script via average lead. We've had a lot of big leads that have reduced late into worse final margins, but we've gotten credit for the leads in Torvik.

That I had not seen. That's interesting. I did see Torvik also tries to ignore garbage time - which probably helps UConn a decent amount.

 

[RuffRuff]

I honestly haven't been stressed about any games other than AZ, and that was only because we were down two starters. Even Providence I had a good feeling we'd come back and win it (we cut it closer than I'd like but I never panicked.) I feel we pass the eye test which is why I am not getting nervous even if we are playing a tight game, I just always feel we are going to win.

You thought we'd come back against PC is rich.

 

[uconn_jack]

You thought we'd come back against PC is rich.

Whatever. I wasn't worried.