Does The Big East Hurt Our KenPom?

[Hurleyman216]

I can’t help but notice even though we are about to move up to the #2 team in the country, it seems like every year once we get into league play our KenPom offensive efficiency #’s start a downward trend. I wish I had access to KenPom’s archives so I could go back and plot the trend. Seems like this also isn’t just a this season thing, seems to happen every year.

For the record, I’m only really concerned with how our offensive efficiency numbers change out of conference vs. in conference. My gut tells me playing all these physical teams limits our freedom of movement and hurts our offensive efficiency numbers, but I haven’t saved the weekly or game by game data to prove it. I will also say that Solo Ball is a big part of our offense and his poor play of late could have an impact on this as well.

 

[Ewekon]

With this team, playing in this conference, our year end record will speak for itself. Certainly early season OOC wins included. Ken Pom will be a non factor.

 

[Woof]

No. Not being dominant hurts our rating. We are winning close games, which is preferable to losing, but we are not being consistently dominant. Games that should be easy wins are turning into stressful events. On the flip side, a few games that should have been losses turned into wins. Does that mean we tend to play down to our competition? Maybe. But we also tend to play up to our competition and beat the best teams that we play, even if our rating says we shouldn't.

Obviously it would be best to win close games that we shouldn't win AND blow out teams that we should beat. But, if that is not our reality, is it better to play down to weaker teams and win close games that we shouldn't win or blow out weaker teams and lose close games that we aren't supposed to win? I don't know. 2022/2023 was kinda like the latter and this team is the former. I guess we will see how this works out.

 

[auror]

I wish I had access to KenPom’s archives so I could go back and plot the trend. Seems like this also isn’t just a this season thing, seems to happen every year.

Start of conference play until after last regular season game (not including BET).
2024/2025- Start: 123.8, #4. End: 122.3, #13 - Decreased 1.5 adjO, rank down 9.
2023/2024 - Start: 122.8, #3. End: 126.0, #3 - Increased 3.2 adjO, rank same.
2022/2023 - Start: 116.7, #7. End: 119.6, #10 - Increased 2.9 adjO, rank down 3.

This year so far - Start: 121.5, #17. Current: 121.8, #24 - Increased 0.3 adjO, rank down 7.

Offenses typically improve over the course of seasons (efficiency across D1 goes up). Consider injury to Liam McNeeley for big impact on ORTG for 24/25.

 

[KingAG]

I pity the fans who watch a win and go to look at metrics. It’s ruined your fan experience

 

[Leebo]

If you go out and beat a team by less than kempom thinks you will, that'll bring your kenpom rating down... it doesn't really matter who the opponent is.

 

[ctchamps]

I pity the fans who watch a win and go to look at metrics. It’s ruined your fan experience

Only if you’re a casual math nerd.

 

[HW611]

I pity the fans who watch a win and go to look at metrics. It’s ruined your fan experience

If we’re holding up a championship at the end of the year, who the hell cares?

Kenpom isn't going to beat an Arizona or Michigan.

 

[NewBlood]

Win all but two games until tournament
Win the BET

We are a one seed.

Kenpom, Lunardi, whomever, won’t mean

 

[superjohn]

No. Not being dominant hurts our rating. We are winning close games, which is preferable to losing, but we are not being consistently dominant. Games that should be easy wins are turning into stressful events. On the flip side, a few games that should have been losses turned into wins. Does that mean we tend to play down to our competition? Maybe. But we also tend to play up to our competition and beat the best teams that we play, even if our rating says we shouldn't.

Obviously it would be best to win close games that we shouldn't win AND blow out teams that we should beat. But, if that is not our reality, is it better to play down to weaker teams and win close games that we shouldn't win or blow out weaker teams and lose close games that we aren't supposed to win? I don't know. 2022/2023 was kinda like the latter and this team is the former. I guess we will see how this works out.

What are the games that should've been easy wins that turned into stressful events? What are the games that should've been losses but turned into wins?

 

[caw]

I really need a better breakdown of the differences between Torvik and Kenpom. I know the basic differences but by now they should be converging more.

 

[JCisthegoat]

Our offensive efficiency is just down this year for whatever reason

 

[JCisthegoat]

Any good predictive measure adjusts for strength of opponent so yeah if UConn struggles against weak comp, their rating drops.

An opposite effect can occur where dominating really weak comp can make you be rated slightly higher than you should be. So it’s not as simple as being in the big east hurts us

 

[Travelman6]

I pity the fans who watch a win and go to look at metrics. It’s ruined your fan experience

I remember the 90s when it was wins, losses, win percentage, games back, last 10, win/losing streak, home record, away record, record vs conference, record vs Top 25.

And that was pretty much it. Simpler times.

 

[CTBasketball]

You should go join Twitter, hold hands with them in the spaces, and cry when our offensive efficiency takes a hit because Hurley empties the bench with 4 min to go.

Does not matter. Eye test does.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Despite what the NCAA says, pounding bad teams really moves the needle in the NET. Pomeroy is honest enough about this dynamic with his rating that he has questioned whether it should be used for tournament selection.

The SEC figured this out, which is a big part of why it is #1 conference in NET, and one of the best conferences in history this season in KenPom despite having a losing record against the other majors and being #4 in RPI.

 

[freescooter]

I can’t help but notice even though we are about to move up to the #2 team in the country, it seems like every year once we get into league play our KenPom offensive efficiency #’s start a downward trend. I wish I had access to KenPom’s archives so I could go back and plot the trend. Seems like this also isn’t just a this season thing, seems to happen every year.

For the record, I’m only really concerned with how our offensive efficiency numbers change out of conference vs. in conference. My gut tells me playing all these physical teams limits our freedom of movement and hurts our offensive efficiency numbers, but I haven’t saved the weekly or game by game data to prove it. I will also say that Solo Ball is a big part of our offense and his poor play of late could have an impact on this as well.

So you want to go back to the American?

 

[Inyatkin]

What are the games that should've been easy wins that turned into stressful events? What are the games that should've been losses but turned into wins?

There aren’t any. It’s extrapolating from the last two games, one of which was never expected to be easy and the other which was never in doubt

Maybe Providence as the latter, but I don’t know why that “should” have been a loss. Game is 40 minutes

 

[willie99]

Results and championships >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> KenPom and metrics

Obviously, we're prepared for March. This year will be no exception

 

[auror]

I really need a better breakdown of the differences between Torvik and Kenpom. I know the basic differences but by now they should be converging more.

Main difference is Torvik considers game script via average lead. We've had a lot of big leads that have reduced late into worse final margins, but we've gotten credit for the leads in Torvik.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Main difference is Torvik considers game script via average lead. We've had a lot of big leads that have reduced late into worse final margins, but we've gotten credit for the leads in Torvik.

LOL. Torvik actually cares how much a team was up with 14 minutes left? Providence certainly approves of this metric.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

I can’t help but notice even though we are about to move up to the #2 team in the country, it seems like every year once we get into league play our KenPom offensive efficiency #’s start a downward trend. I wish I had access to KenPom’s archives so I could go back and plot the trend. Seems like this also isn’t just a this season thing, seems to happen every year.

For the record, I’m only really concerned with how our offensive efficiency numbers change out of conference vs. in conference. My gut tells me playing all these physical teams limits our freedom of movement and hurts our offensive efficiency numbers, but I haven’t saved the weekly or game by game data to prove it. I will also say that Solo Ball is a big part of our offense and his poor play of late could have an impact on this as well.

It does, but like, it also does for UConn WBB.

Do I care about KenPom for UConn? At the quality of this team and for as long as they have legit title aspirations, no.

I'd care more about KenPom if UConn were still in the AAC because they'd need manipulation of the metrics to affect their at-large consideration/seeding. Or, I'd care more about KenPom if UConn was fighting for an at-large bid and were a middling team, a la Creighton.

 

[Hurleyman216]

I don’t care about KenPom so much, just asked the question more as a thought experiment. It’s wild to me that we can beat a top 25 team on the road and drop in the metrics…that just shouldn’t ever really happen. Top 25 road wins are very hard to come by.

 

[navery12]

I don’t care about KenPom so much, just asked the question more as a thought experiment. It’s wild to me that we can beat a top 25 team on the road and drop in the metrics…that just shouldn’t ever really happen. Top 25 road wins are very hard to come by.

We didn't drop on KenPom though, our rating went from 29.44 to 29.69 after beating Seton Hall

 

[temery]

The big east has never hurt uconn, ever, in the history of the world. It has never happened.