Does The Big East Hurt Our KenPom?

[DCHuskyFan]

Maybe the BE is a problem from an overall perspective, but BYU losing at home appeared to hurt our KP last night more than anything. After that loss, we dropped from 10 to 11 and our Drating dropped from 4 to 6. I know there’s a combination of factors that caused the drop, but that one seemed to do the most damage.

As far as NET goes, Nova loss to St. John’s last night dropped them to Quad 2. They play Gtown on Wednesday night, and maybe they win and go from 31 back to top 30 and Quad 1 for our game, and hopefully they stay Quad 1. Regardless of all that, a convincing win on Saturday might move the needle on our metrics,

 

[RuffRuff]

Maybe the BE is a problem from an overall perspective, but BYU losing at home appeared to hurt our KP last night more than anything. After that loss, we dropped from 10 to 11 and our Drating dropped from 4 to 6. I know there’s a combination of factors that caused the drop, but that one seemed to do the most damage.

As far as NET goes, Nova loss to St. John’s last night dropped them to Quad 2. They play Gtown on Wednesday night, and maybe they win and go from 31 back to top 30 and Quad 1 for our game, and hopefully they stay Quad 1. Regardless of all that, a convincing win on Saturday might move the needle on our metrics,

Our metrics have been steadily dropping with the narrow wins. It's fine for now, but we don't have a lot of room to lose these games now. If we actually drop a couple of games to these BE teams, we could move off the one line quick. 11 in KPI and 8 in the NET at this point. A win is a win, sure, but the quality of the win does matter these days.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I used to be a big fan, but KenPom has jumped the shark this year. A 10-8 Washington team with 3 wins in the Top 100, is 52? Oregon is 8-10 with no Top 100 wins and 2 close wins over teams between 101-150 is 88. South Carolina is 77 at 10-8, with 1 win in the Top 200. After their win over LSU, SC's next best win is a 12 point victory over 221 Charleston Southern.

The "house effect" for the SEC and Big 10 has gotten a little out of hand.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Maybe the BE is a problem from an overall perspective, but BYU losing at home appeared to hurt our KP last night more than anything. After that loss, we dropped from 10 to 11 and our Drating dropped from 4 to 6. I know there’s a combination of factors that caused the drop, but that one seemed to do the most damage.

As far as NET goes, Nova loss to St. John’s last night dropped them to Quad 2. They play Gtown on Wednesday night, and maybe they win and go from 31 back to top 30 and Quad 1 for our game, and hopefully they stay Quad 1. Regardless of all that, a convincing win on Saturday might move the needle on our metrics,

That drop is really just non-significant statistical noise. The difference between 4th and 6th is 0.4 pts per 100 possessions.

An average game has about 60-70 possessions. That’s about 0.2 pts per 100 possessions difference in the 4th, 5th, and 6th ranked teams’ defensive metric over about a 20 game sample size.

It means literally nothing.

 

[Woof]

I used to be a big fan, but KenPom has jumped the shark this year. A 10-8 Washington team with 3 wins in the Top 100, is 52? Oregon is 8-10 with no Top 100 wins and 2 close wins over teams between 101-150 is 88. South Carolina is 77 at 10-8, with 1 win in the Top 200. After their win over LSU, SC's next best win is a 12 point victory over 221 Charleston Southern.

The "house effect" for the SEC and Big 10 has gotten a little out of hand.

There is no house effect or jumping of sharks. It is an algorithm. It isn't biased based on conferences.

 

[Woof]

That drop is really just non-significant statistical noise. The difference between 4th and 6th is 0.4 pts per 100 possessions.

An average game has about 60-70 possessions. That’s about 0.2 pts per 100 possessions difference in the 4th, 5th, and 6th ranked teams’ defensive metric over about a 20 game sample size.

It means literally nothing.

It means we moved down a list that the committee will see when they determine our seed. A committee that seems to like to seed us low. A committee that can, indeed, be biased and looking for confirmation to seed us low.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is no house effect or jumping of sharks. It is an algorithm. It isn't biased based on conferences.

I have worked with plenty of algorithms over the years. Sometimes they get detached from reality.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

It means we moved down a list that the committee will see when they determine our seed. A committee that seems to like to seed us low. A committee that can, indeed, be biased and looking for confirmation to seed us low.

There’s 12+ games left in the regular season. Let’s save our panic and conspiracy agita until then…

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It means we moved down a list that the committee will see when they determine our seed. A committee that seems to like to seed us low. A committee that can, indeed, be biased and looking for confirmation to seed us low.

You are defending a model that is used for seeding when that model appears to have an inherent bias while complaining that the committee which uses this model is biased against us. Is it possible that the model is the problem?

 

[Woof]

I have worked with plenty of algorithms over the years. Sometimes they get detached from reality.

Sure. Some algorithms are better than others and no model is perfect. But you implied that one of them had a "house effect" and "jumped the shark". What is your proof of that, other than not liking the results? "Jumping the shark" implies that the algorithm was changed. Any evidence? A "house effect" implies bias. Any evidence of that?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Sure. Some algorithms are better than others and no model is perfect. But you implied that one of them had a "house effect" and "jumped the shark". What is your proof of that, other than not liking the results? "Jumping the shark" implies that the algorithm was changed. Any evidence? A "house effect" implies bias. Any evidence of that?

Common sense test. I gave several examples.

 

[RuffRuff]

Common sense test. I gave several examples.

Is it not part of your conspiracy that the current most used metrics and intentionally designed to favor the SEC & B10?