junglehusky
Molotov Cocktail of Ugliness
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As Dodd said in his article, sources may not be happy about playing Oklahoma / Texas only every other year. They won't look at as 1 billion for the conference, they'll ask what it does for their school's revenue.How does any organization pass on $1B in additional revenue over the next 8 years? I've already seen articles praising the ACC for joining the $400M+ club along with 3 other P5 leagues. The Big12 can't pass up the money. Does anyone know how West Virginia was compensated when they joined the league? Obviously they did not get a full share at first. I'm wondering what a reasonable share would be for UConn. I would think more than $10M.
The schedule: One observer brought up what a conference might look like for the average current Big 12 school post-expansion.
Sept. 24 -- Cincinnati
Oct. 1 -- Memphis
Oct. 8 -- Iowa State
Oct. 15 -- West Virginia
Oct. 22 -- Kansas
Oct. 29 -- Oklahoma
Nov. 5 -- Central Florida
Nov. 12 -- Texas Tech
That would make for a fairly putrid season ticket package. With expansion, goodbye round-robin. Goodbye possibly playing Oklahoma or Texas at home each year. Goodbye schedule strength?
On the list of reasons Texas doesn't want to expand, the size of the stadium for a conference away game they'd play once every 3-4 years is about #184.
That won't happen either. They can't make us move our home game. The only way we'd move it, is if we kept the same revenues (gate/concessions, etc) as a home game, and why would UT agree to that?Not disagreeing with you. But all I am saying is that there is very little chance that the B12 expands--as Texas has no interest in it. And in the very small chance that they do expand and take UConn, we should expect to see regular B12 "home games" in NYC and/or Boston.
Not disagreeing with you. But all I am saying is that there is very little chance that the B12 expands--as Texas has no interest in it. And in the very small chance that they do expand and take UConn, we should expect to see regular B12 "home games" in NYC and/or Boston.
Texas would come here twice in a decade.I would put the odds of B12 expansion at less than 10%.
If Texas is against it, it isn't going to happen. It is not in Texas' best interest to expand and lock into a longer GOR with the B12. They know their future is in either the B1G or PAC, but they want to ride the LHN gravy train as long as possible before being forced to move. They will use their power and influence in the state of Texas to ensure that the B12 doesn't have enough votes to expand (forcing a no vote from the many fellow TX schools).
If the less than 10% chance of B12 expansion happens, look for UConn to receive a significantly reduced share for an extended period of time (but obviously much more than the current AAC payout). Also, I would expect to see UConn B12 "home games" in NYC or Boston--there is no way that Texas is ever playing at The Rent unless seating is well over 60k--and even then we may be forced to play in NYC/Boston.
Texas only gets 1 vote.
By the rules, they get one vote. But they will have no problem using their political power and influence in TX, as well as good old fashioned threats and strong-arming to get two other Texas schools to vote with them.
By the by-laws, Texas can be outvoted 9-1 and be forced to expand. But that is not happening in reality. If Texas doesn't want to expand, it is not happening.
Maybe I'm missing something..
I would put the odds of B12 expansion at less than 10%.
If Texas is against it, it isn't going to happen. It is not in Texas' best interest to expand and lock into a longer GOR with the B12. They know their future is in either the B1G or PAC, but they want to ride the LHN gravy train as long as possible before being forced to move. They will use their power and influence in the state of Texas to ensure that the B12 doesn't have enough votes to expand (forcing a no vote from the many fellow TX schools).
If the less than 10% chance of B12 expansion happens, look for UConn to receive a significantly reduced share for an extended period of time (but obviously much more than the current AAC payout). Also, I would expect to see UConn B12 "home games" in NYC or Boston--there is no way that Texas is ever playing at The Rent unless seating is well over 60k--and even then we may be forced to play in NYC/Boston.
Considering that WVU had to borrow the BE exit fee money from the B12 when it joined, this looks like a pretty sweet deal for the established members. And going to Vowelguy's point, if you are the little 8 in the conference, why not invite the best of the AAC now rather than having to join the entire clusterfack in the future?Dodd broke it down in his article. Lets say they add 4 teams and ESPN/Fox has to fork over a 100 million a year. That 100 mil goes to the conference first, not to the teams.
The conference then pays the 4 new schools their haircut amount (he started with 10 mil), leaving 60 mil for the remaining 10 teams to divvy up - for a bump of 6 million per year per team.
Not a bad bump.
Even without the newbs taking a reduced share, which they most assuredly will, expansion benefits the Big 12. Right now the narrative is every other conference has crossed the $400 million Rubicon. With the addition of new teams, the Big 12 joins that club.If the B12 can get an additional $1B just by adding 4 teams and a champ game for 8 years they will do it. I would at least up the probability to >60%. Don't forget about how this will affect salaries and bonuses for administrators. In 8 years they can blow the whole thing up if they want. Texas is posturing right now to demonstrate who runs the conference. But no one is turning down $1B without a serious fight.
I would put the odds of B12 expansion at less than 10%.
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I buy this logic.
HOWEVER ... doing nothing screws this conference for the next decade. And 9 Universities know that. Intimately. And fully 8 of them have little other choice. It is about the Network. And as a certain 11 shows us ... that is a problem in todays cord cutting scheme. HOWEVER ... doing nothing gets them further behind. Thamel said the ACC was close: I will believe it when that execution is announced. Today is the day that the B12 needs to pull up their big boy pants and decide who they are going to be. And ... let's admit: for the foreseeable future the SEC and B1G is going to be at least $25 m per University better than the other 3. Lucky sperm Rutgers.