Do People Realize How Soft This Bubble Is?

[HuskyBballFan]

Bubble teams who won tonight (and are probably no longer on the bubble):
1) Seton Hall
2) Kansas State

Bubble teams who lost tonight:
1) Xavier
2) Miami
3) Illinois
4) NC State
5) Northwestern
6) Mississippi State

Colorado State is still TBD.

Joe Lunardi has Central Florida in the dance as of right now and South Florida, who's best win is Seton Hall at home, as the first team out.

Pretty soon, Providence and DePaul will be getting write-ups in Bubble Watch.

 

[superjohn]

It's weak as hell, Seton Hall and us are easily in at this point but you still have to take care of business. I want this game on saturday so freaking badly.

 

[UConn4ever]

Colorado State beat a ranked New Mexico team so that should help them a lot

 

[champs99and04]

I feel like every year people say "the bubble is soft, this is a down year". You know what? I think any bubble that expands 68 teams wide is going to have some pretty weak teams in it. This should come as a surprise to nobody.

And no way is K-State on the bubble. They have wins this year @Baylor, vs. Missouri, and @ Missouri.

 

[jibsey]

How is SF out with their BE record?

 

[mets1090]

Beat Cuse and don't lose the rest of the games and we should be in. If we lose to cuse we probably need to win the remaining games or a couple of BET games to get in. I'm not too worried about it. If we don't get in it's because we will have played horrendously the last 5 or so games of the season and lost most of them. At that point we really don't deserve to make it.

 

[UConn4ever]

How is SF out with their BE record?

They havent beat anyone good but if they go 2-2 against Syracuse WVU Cincy and Louisville(remaining games) they'll be in but i dont see it

 

[junglehusky]

I feel like every year people say "the bubble is soft, this is a down year". You know what? I think any bubble that expands 68 teams wide is going to have some pretty weak teams in it. This should come as a surprise to nobody.

And no way is K-State on the bubble. They have wins this year @Baylor, vs. Missouri, and @ Missouri.

Yes... the expansion from 64 to 65 was driven (IIRC) by the major conferences not wanting to lose a team to the autobid when the WAC split in 2 conferences (or was it another midmajor split?) The push to 68 likewise wasn't to get more teams from midmajors in, I think it was to get more major conference bubble teams in. Once we have a few more years of track record in the 68 team era it'll be interesting to see who's last in / first out over the years...

 

[businesslawyer]

68, and the non-parallel structure of the "first four," is nothing more than a political compromise between the major conferences and the small conferences. If you try to find a common sense reason for it, you are just wasting your time.

 

[YearoftheHusky]

Wouldn't a soft bubble indicate it can burst easily?

 

[HeGotGame]

How is SF out with their BE record?

The BE is very very down this year and despite that guaddy record their best W is Seton Hall.

Their non conference was pitiful, they lost to Auburn, VCU, Old Dominion, Southern Miss and Penn State.

Bama went 12-4 last year in the SEC and did not make the tourney because of a similar non-conference performance.

I honestly don't see how USF gets in without adding a win over Cuse or Lville or getting some decent wins in the BE Tourney.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

How is SF out with their BE record?

Because conference record is not considered by the Committee. Each team is evaluated as an independent.

 

[bobbygt]

Because conference record is not considered by the Committee. Each team is evaluated as an independent.

Syracuse went 10-6 and 22-10 overall in 2006-2007 and didn't make the tournament (which I still think is absurd).

Then, you have Colorado St. this year who are on the bubble: 17-9 overall, 6-5 in conference. They have two wins over top 25 teams (SDSU and New Mexico) and are getting credit for losing to Duke and Southern Miss.

I don't agree with the logic on either of these.

I think a winning record in the bigeast should be an automatic for a tourney birth.

 

[Reno]

Wouldn't a soft bubble indicate it can burst easily?

Yep, it means things can change either way in a hurry. Right now we're 24th in RPI, but we'll need to finish strong to lock up a bid. Very doable despite all our struggles so far.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

I think a winning record in the bigeast should be an automatic for a tourney birth.

Only problem with this is the unbalanced schedule. The 3 teams Uconn played twice this year are all going to the tournament, while USF got to play an NIT team (Pitt) and 2 teams that won't see any postseason (Nova and PC).

 

[YearoftheHusky]

Yep, it means things can change either way in a hurry. Right now we're 24th in RPI, but we'll need to finish strong to lock up a bid. Very doable despite all our struggles so far.

Makes sense. I thought the OP was taking the position of, "we don't have to panic, the other bubble teams are worse than we are." In that case it would seem like our bubble would be more firm in that it will be harder to pop it.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Makes sense. I thought the OP was taking the position of, "we don't have to panic, the other bubble teams are worse than we are." In that case it would seem like our bubble would be more firm in that it will be harder to pop it.

That is the position I was taking. I wasn't suggesting that we are in great shape and have nothing to worry about. I was just pointing out that the typical "magic numbers" like 20 wins, .500 conference record, etc that apply in normal years are not necessarily mandatory this year. We have a shaky profile, but it's not anywhere close to as shaky as the majority of our fellow bubble teams.

 

[bobbygt]

Only problem with this is the unbalanced schedule. The 3 teams Uconn played twice this year are all going to the tournament, while USF got to play an NIT team (Pitt) and 2 teams that won't see any postseason (Nova and PC).

I thought Seton Hall and ND would be way down this year, while Nova would be decent and Providence about even with the Hall and ND!

 

[RS9999X]

Last year UConn was 21-9 (9-9).
They can get to 19-11 (9-9) this year without much of a stretch.

Teams that are .500 in a major conference and an RPI under 50 are in the tourney. Win against PC, Pitt and Depaul and they are in. Second toughest conference, second toughest schedule. That all counts. That's not a last 4 teams in scenario without some crazy tourney upsets. in a field of 68

 

[YearoftheHusky]

That is the position I was taking. I wasn't suggesting that we are in great shape and have nothing to worry about. I was just pointing out that the typical "magic numbers" like 20 wins, .500 conference record, etc that apply in normal years are not necessarily mandatory this year. We have a shaky profile, but it's not anywhere close to as shaky as the majority of our fellow bubble teams.

And that makes sense too. I got confused by the "soft bubble" thinking that would mean one that would burst easily, but that appears not to be the case this season so I would think that would be a "firm bubble". Tomato, tomahto.

 

[RS9999X]

There's 36 teams in the majors with 15 wins or better, a .500 conference record, and an RPI under 100. Subtract 6 qualifiers and that leaves 30 at-large considerations for 37 slots. There's some real dogs in that group too. Not Huskies