Digging deeper into the numbers

[champs99and04]

I realize fans' can be superstitious when it comes to reckoning with big picture items at a time like this, so I'm going to my best here not to encroach on hallowed ground. Most of you seem to be on shaky footing with the Basketball Gods already, assuming the reports of a flight to Phoenix being delayed six hours last night are accurate.

But for those of you who are comfortable enough with their repentance, I'll lay it out there: Is UConn historically good? As in, are they already on short list of the most dominant teams of the last 20-30 years? Or does it depend on what happens this weekend?

And while I have your attention, let me slip another question in there you probably haven't thought about as much: Is Purdue historically good? Do Alabama and NC State have any shot at preventing the match-up that seems inevitable?

Well, of course they have a shot. Alabama's won four straight games to get here, and NC State's streak is at nine and counting. There's some real mystique there, with the Wolfpack especially, that we'd be fools to discount given what we've seen over the years in this tournament. Over 40 minutes, anything can happen. We've seen some real behemoths go down on this weekend - be it a 38-0 Kentucky team in 2015 or a 31-0 Gonzaga just three short years ago. And of course, we all know the story of '99 Duke.

It just doesn't seem likely. UConn's body-of-work probably falls a little short of "historical juggernaut" status. There are a pair of lopsided losses in there, in addition to a few victories that barely pass the smell test. Only two other teams from their league went dancing, and one of them had to play shorthanded in two of the three match-ups.

On the other hand, UConn's streak of dominance - which is still ongoing - coincided almost exactly with their star center, Donovan Clingan, returning from injury. Clingan is, at worst, one of the 4-5 best players in the country, and only missed out on top postseason accolades due to a light load of minutes. His on/off splits are quite stark, to the point that you can easily make the case that he elevates the team from great to dominant. Since returning to a full workload in late January, UConn is a staggering +273 across 437 minutes of game action, compared to only +103 over 323 minutes without him. That figure equates to a +25 per 40 minutes - compared to 12.8 per 40 without him - and only widens once you remove the Georgetown, DePaul, and Stetson games.

Collectively, UConn's amassed a 14-4 record against the spread since hosting Xavier on January 28th, eclipsing the number by an average of 7.9 PPG in the process. In the 19 games prior, UConn was just 10-8-1 ATS and actually underperformed the number by about a half-point. (UConn is also 20-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents dating back to the start of last season (non buy games), and a perfect 10-0 in the NCAA Tournament. Over that ten game stretch, they have outperformed the spread by an average of 13.8 PPG - an almost unthinkable feat given that point spreads are a moving target and supposed to regress to the mean.)

Point being, some of the predictive analytics are a bit behind the curve on this UConn team. For instance, ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives UConn "only" a 72% chance of defeating Alabama, whereas the Vegas money line implies about an 86% chance. That's an absurdly high number against the 12th ranked KenPom team on a neutral floor, and would seem to align with the belief that they are, in fact, historically great. Purdue, for comparison sake, is giving two fewer points against the 43rd ranked KenPom team, and given only an 80% chance to win.

I'm not going to make any predictions, but I will say this: If UConn does fall short of a National Title, I believe the story will be less about them and more about Purdue. Too many people nationally have allowed their biases - which all flow from a stigma based on past Purdue teams - to cloud their vision of what is statistically one of the most complete teams - in terms of rebounding, defending, and shooting - of the modern era. This is a well-oiled machine, and one of probably two teams that could withstand a 3 of 15 shooting day from three (to the opponent's 11 of 26) and still win against the KenPom 5th ranked team. History may boil down to whether UConn's ace in the hole can cut the head off the snake.

 

[auror]

Started this tournament at 32.21 KenPom adjEM, which was 9th among all teams over the last 12 years entering the tournament. Increased to an absurd 35.25 entering the Final Four, which only trails:

Kentucky 2015 37.60
Gonzaga 2021 37.88

Both of whom were undefeated overall entering the Final Four. Both of whom lost one of their next 2 games and failed to win a championship. 36.91 is where Kentucky ended up, and we're theoretically in range of that if we crush the next 2 teams. It's unlikely Purdue can pass us without some really wacky scoring margins, so we'll likely finish #1 in KenPom for the 2nd straight year.

But even beyond that, we're in a pretty select company with back to back Final Fours where the team won the title at least one of the years, so the team should be remembered for that at a minimum. It's the best 2-year stretch in UConn history as well, which assures it will live on in some capacity.

 

[August_West]

Started this tournament at 32.21 KenPom adjEM, which was 9th among all teams over the last 12 years entering the tournament. Increased to an absurd 35.25 entering the Final Four, which only trails:

Kentucky 2015 37.60
Gonzaga 2021 37.88

Both of whom were undefeated overall entering the Final Four. Both of whom lost one of their next 2 games and failed to win a championship. 36.91 is where Kentucky ended up, and we're theoretically in range of that if we crush the next 2 teams. It's unlikely Purdue can pass us without some really wacky scoring margins, so we'll likely finish #1 in KenPom for the 2nd straight year.

But even beyond that, we're in a pretty select company with back to back Final Fours where the team won the title at least one of the years, so the team should be remembered for that at a minimum. It's the best 2-year stretch in UConn history as well, which assures it will live on in some capacity.

 

[Mr. French]

I’ll accept Kobe in this situation given mojo but otherwise “don’t put that dudes name in the same sentence” as UConn (shout out Ray).

 

[Rondogg]

Honestly, this feels like the mirror universe 1999. They are already proclaiming us Dominant (remember the "Duke Invitational" from 1999?) when in reality Purdue has had an equal amount of success overall this season. Honestly, if Alabama gets hot or if we face Purdue we could easily lose.

 

[BGesus4]

The biggest hole in all this logic is that what’s been going on the past two years with the program is just a figment of my imagination

 

[champs99and04]

Started this tournament at 32.21 KenPom adjEM, which was 9th among all teams over the last 12 years entering the tournament. Increased to an absurd 35.25 entering the Final Four, which only trails:

Kentucky 2015 37.60
Gonzaga 2021 37.88

And that might still be understating things given Clingan's gone from about 20 MPG over the first half of the season to 25 MPG over the second half. Not that UConn's the first team ever to scale back on their best guys' minutes for durability/sportsmanship reasons, but I don't recall it ever happening to this extreme with one player. The five games he missed alone might be enough to vault UConn past other teams on the list if you extrapolate his per minute production.

To put Clingan's relatively limited PT into perspective, consider that Edey actually averaged more minutes (32) than Clingan topped out at (31). Purdue's efficiency numbers would likely look vastly different with him playing fewer minutes (in fact, they probably don't get to Phoenix without him going close to the full 40 on Sunday).

Then again, playing fewer minutes has allowed Clingan to expend more energy and foul more liberally (2.5 fours per 40 minutes for Edey to 3.6 for Clingan). That stuff all gets baked into the efficiency numbers as well.

Still, if you're to believe the hypothetical title game line some books have released (which I think had UConn as a six-point favorite or so), it would support my theory that Vegas is anticipating Clingan extending well beyond his usual threshold in a potential title game (probably in the ballpark of 28-32). KenPom indicates it should be closer to UConn -4 under normal circumstances.