Did Geno make the right call?

[stamfordhusky]

The definitive study proving that fouling was clearly the right and only call to make in the game. You're welcome BY.

WHY IT'S ALWAYS CORRECT TO FOUL WHEN YOU'RE UP 3 LATE IN THE GAME

This isnt even a study at all. It’s just a series of rough estimates that could be off dramatically. It proves absolutely nothing and is clearly flawed.

 

[AgStatesman]

It obviously was the right call Uconn won. If they lost it would have been wrong. In this case, it must have been right by not losing. Everything else is just an opinion.

This! I really enjoy presenting my opinions as fact. It's even more fun when such proclamations are taken seriously.

 

[housekeys]

The KenPom analysis is interesting. He finds if you play defense then you win 88.4% of the time, lose .3%, but you end up tied 11.3% of the time. If you foul you win 90.4% of the time--but sometimes bad things happen and you lose 3.7% of the time, and you go to OT 6% of the time. Most of those bad thing take time (rebounding a missed free throw, or stealing the inbound pass). so the desirability of fouling goes up as there is less time for the bad things to happen. And it goes up if you think you will lose in the next OT (for example if your star player has fouled out). In our case it is a tough call--there was not much time and AE had fouled out, but Paige was shooting lights out.

I agree with you. No one says, foul up 3 with 20 seconds left. Or 15 seconds, or even 10 seconds left. It has to be around 5 seconds or less, that fouling makes sense.

Notice the KenPom data set is constrained between 5 and 12 seconds (IMO it makes a difference, but maybe not - the actual data would help):

I chose to use slightly different assumptions than John. I flagged all possessions at the end of the second half or overtime period where a team trailing by 3 took possession of the ball with between five and 12 seconds left. Then I recorded what happened in that possession (foul/no foul) and whether the game was won or lost by the leading team in regulation, or if the game went to an extra period.

Given there were 6.2 seconds left, for the NCST game, it looks like Geno made a difficult, but right, decision. We won. Kinda moot at this point.

 

[mudblood]

He did make the wrong call on that one, but was otherwise outstanding on the night. Both teams were in the bonus and the possession arrow was pointing NC State for most or all of the overtime periods, including at the end. Geno brilliantly navigated his team through all of that.

The most important play of the entire game for me was the defensive stop the Huskies made in the last possession of regulation with the game tied. With seconds left, one of the NC State players drove right and towards the hoop. Paige was able to step into her lane just soon enough to force her to back it out, resulting in the rushed attempt at a three and taking the game to overtime. That the Huskies pulled off that stop without fouling and putting them on the line was as miraculous as anything else that happened last night.

BTW, he inserted Nika for those last 28 seconds of regulation to help take away dribble penetration and cuts…

 

[mudblood]

But they'll try to make it look like you did...

Which is why you need to foul when the player having the ball is with the back to the basket or dribbling sideways

 

[jaydee602]

Paige could have barreled over Cunane who was setting the pick before Brown- Turner got the ball. That would have put NC State's best rebounder on the line to minimize a rebound. the only risk was the refs incorrectly deciding that the shot counted after the foul.

 

[Boreifs]

Are all you folks having fun?! Hopefully there are many ignores on the way.

 

[VaConnFan11]

Statistically you probably should foul.
Without fouling... Have to make 1 shot
Fouling...Have to make 1 shot, miss 2nd shot, get rebound, make 3rd shot

Generally you know what strategy you are going to use before the season even starts. You do need to actually practice it some, because you don't want to foul too early.

Geno gave his reasons for not fouling and they seemed valid to me.

 

[Deadrody]

I was going to ask the same question. I would have even had them make the foul before the ball was in-bounded. Avoid the chance they potentially hoist it and get 3 foul shots. The disadvantage is no time would come off the clock. The only down side is they intentionally miss the second shot and UConn does not box out - which they have done and NCS gets the rebound and somehow gets a 3. Just me but I would have fouled.

That risks the foul getting called intentional so they get FTs and possession. There is no easy answer on this. Its a risk either way.

Clearly it may or may not be the right call always, sometimes or never.

Maybe

 

[jaydee602]

Was I the only fan who was waiting for that desperation 3 pointer to clang off the rim as the clock run out? That shot was hard to hit without being defended. Imagine making it under the season ending pressure with a defender flying at you!!

 

[Plebe]

I don't fault a coach for choosing not to foul in this scenario ... but there is a special kind of defense that needs to be played when a 3-pointer is the only shot that will hurt you. Can't go under a screen with no switch.

 

[jayfromfla]

The real question should be. Where was the defender. Each nsc player outside the 3point range should have had a UConn defender within 1 foot. Deny the pass. Not jumping from 8 ft away

 

[nomdoux]

Geno said postgame that he might have fouled had Dorka been available as a 3rd big to rebound for insurance, fearful of intentional miss-putback scenario.

 

[AgStatesman]

STOP THE PRESSES!!!!! TONIGHT ON PARDON THE INTERRUPTION WITH MICHAEL WILPON AND TONY KORNHEISER, GENO SAID IF HE HAD IT TO DO OVER

HE WOULD HAVE FOULED!!!!!!!!

YES IM SHOUTING!!!!! I WAS RIGHT AND MANY OF YOU WERE WRONG, AGAIN!!!!!!