The star system is clearly not some exact science that anyone should be taking as gospel. There are hundreds of examples of kids who were 2 stars or even unrated coming out of HS that went on to have great success in college and The NFL. I bleed a different Blue and White than you guys, but understand your argument. Just this year our DE Carl Nassib, a former unrated walk on, became a consensus first team All American and swept the awards circuit taking home the coveted Lombardi Trophy among several others. It obviously can happen. All star systems really can confess to be(outside of a ridiculous cottage industry) are evaluations of a player's potential based on the athletic ability demonstrated in high school. That's it. Once they are in a college program it is up to the kid to perform to whatever their true potential might be.
Saying all of that, you can not dismiss the fact that the teams who regularly win on National Signing Day, usually are the same ones winning in January. Sure there are exceptions such as Oregon, TCU, or Stanford , who regularly out perform their class rankings, but looking at 247 Sports Composite Rankings you will find a top ten of Bama, FSU, LSU, OSU, UM, Ole Miss, UGA, USC, Auburn, and Clemson. The majority of these teams have either won the title, played for it, or at least contended for NY6 Games in the last several seasons.
I've seen the argument that kids rankings get artificially inflated when they start being recruited by higher profile programs. I'm sure there might be some truth to that, as this is a for profit industry, however I think the primary issue with under the radar types is that they simply lack serious evaluation until the big boys start sniffing around. Kids playing football in Ct Prep Schools are going to get a lot less exposure than kids playing 7A BAll in Miami. It doesn't make them lesser players, simply less known. When a major school/s come into the picture suddenly multiple new sites/reviewers are looking at these kids, evaluating them, and comparing them to other similar prospects. I get that its frustrating to see a 2* OL flip to Michigan and suddenly become a 3*. Did he get any better? Obviously not, but he likely was only fully evaluated by multiple entities for the first time when UM came into the picture. If I was Diaco, I would be perfectly OK if my kids kept a low profile. Play things close to your vest because when kids start to blow up nationally, the vultures will all start circling.
