Dennis Dodd: Notre Dame should join a conference sooner rather than later

[FDNY99]

Taylor Zarzur and Greg McElroy closed First Take this morning talking about ND joining the ACC as a full member. They both said that ND will be a full ACC member in 3-5 yrs when CR landscape changes again.

 

[Fairfield_1st]

Let's see what Dabo and the ACC think though after Notre Dame wins this Saturday and his tigers - and the rest of the ACC are frozen out of the CFP.

This is a little tough for me in that in no way do I want ND to win anything ever again, but the CR side of me needs things to shake up and if ND taking the ACC bid does it, that's what I have to root for. ND has three challenging games in a rows with Clemson, Navy and USC-West. Then they have 4 somewhat cupcakes (sorry Temple) and then finish with a currently ranked Stanford team.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

This is a little tough for me in that in no way do I want ND to win anything ever again, but the CR side of me needs things to shake up and if ND taking the ACC bid does it, that's what I have to root for. ND has three challenging games in a rows with Clemson, Navy and USC-West. Then they have 4 somewhat cupcakes (sorry Temple) and then finish with a currently ranked Stanford team.

Honestly I think its better if Clemson wins instead of Notre Dame. Hypothetically if Notre Dame loses this game, but wins out, I think they are out of the playoff. Here is what I project the final four will look like:

1) Ohio State (B1G Champion)
2) Georgia (SEC Champion)
3) Clemson (ACC Champion)
4) UCLA (PAC 12 Champion)
---------------------------------------------
On the Bubble: Michigan State, UCLA, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Alabama, TCU, Baylor

My top four is predicated on the fact that either all four of those teams win their respective conference championships with either an undefeated record or with one loss (in the SEC's case, their champion could even get in with two losses). With the way it is shaping up, I think the Big 12 gets shut out for a second year in a row unless Baylor/TCU goes undefeated because of their softer SOS and the lack of an actual championship game. The only way for Notre Dame to pass a conference champion is if they go undefeated. If a one loss Notre Dame team gets squeezed from the playoff, it might force their hand to join a conference

 

[SubbaBub]

If ND loses a game they are out assuming there are at least 4 other one loss teams or if one of those teams is a relative no name, like Baylor or TCU.

Except there is zero chance the B12 champ gets left out this year. Let's say Utah wins the P12 with one loss. ND would go over Utah.

They wouldn't jump anyone in the SEC or BIG. They might "steal" the ACC bid if one of the other 4 Champs loses in the CCG.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

If ND loses a game they are out assuming there are at least 4 other one loss teams or if one of those teams is a relative no name, like Baylor or TCU.

Except there is zero chance the B12 champ gets left out this year. Let's say Utah wins the P12 with one loss. ND would go over Utah.

They wouldn't jump anyone in the SEC or BIG. They might "steal" the ACC bid if one of the other 4 Champs loses in the CCG.

That would be really interesting. Utah is absolutely legit this year, and could win the PAC12. If Michigan continues to gain steam, that could be the signature OOC win that props Utah up against other CFP hopefuls. If it came down to a one loss Notre Dame and a one loss Utah (who wins the PAC12 championship game), I think they would actually go with Utah. I think a bunch of weight is put on these conference title games, plus Utah's SOS and quality wins might actually trump Notre Dame (Michigan, @Oregon) with ranked opponents Cal, USC and UCLA still on the schedule

 

[whaler11]

Notre Dame isn't going 11-1 so I wouldn't sweat it. They might not even get through Saturday.

 

[Fairfield_1st]

Honestly I think its better if Clemson wins instead of Notre Dame.....If a one loss Notre Dame team gets squeezed from the playoff, it might force their hand to join a conference

But if ND does take the ACC bid, that would cause unrest with every team in the ACC. I've read posts about ND staying with their Independence no matter what, so my assumption was that unrest with the rest of the ACC, particularly whoever thinks they should get the bid, is my best bet for getting the pot stirred. I guess either path comes to the same potential result, either the ACC tells ND to poop or get off the pot or they decide to themselves after being locked out.

 

[The Viking]

I want ND to win because Navy's victory will be even more delicious. And Navy will beat them.

 

[NYUConn]

Except there is zero chance the B12 champ gets left out this year.

How do you figure? Assuming TCU wins, where is their marquee victory? You really think that a 12-0 TCU team with OOC wins against Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin and SMU is more deserving of a bid than the SEC champ, the B1G champ, a 13-0 undefeated Utah team, and an 11-1 Notre Dame squad?

No way.

Also, Utah's opening day win over Michigan is starting to look better and better every week.

 

[Kolumbo]

How do you figure? Assuming TCU wins, where is their marquee victory? You really think that a 12-0 TCU team with OOC wins against Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin and SMU is more deserving of a bid than the SEC champ, the B1G champ, a 13-0 undefeated Utah team, and an 11-1 Notre Dame squad?

No way.

Also, Utah's opening day win over Michigan is starting to look better and better every week.

Well there is that 50-7 shellacking of the horns. Ouch. Even SMU put up 37 on the Frogs.

 

[SubbaBub]

How do you figure? Assuming TCU wins, where is their marquee victory? You really think that a 12-0 TCU team with OOC wins against Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin and SMU is more deserving of a bid than the SEC champ, the B1G champ, a 13-0 undefeated Utah team, and an 11-1 Notre Dame squad?

No way.

Also, Utah's opening day win over Michigan is starting to look better and better every week.

Because we are dealing with a cartel and relationships matter. No way the P5 and their surrogates on the selection committee risk blowing up their brand new playoff by stiffing the B12 two years in a row. The B12 champ will hold all tie breakers plus a little extra. I'm sorry if anyone thinks this process is purely based on merit.

It's also the reason why ND isn't getting in over a 1-loss P5 champ, unless its the ACC.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Let's say Clemson goes undefeated and wins the ACC. A 1 loss PAC team (Stanford or USC) wins the PAC. A 1 loss (Alamaba) SEC wins the SEC title over another 1 loss team (Georgia). The SEC only gets 1 slot. Undefeated and defending champion Ohio St loses wins the B1G. The XII has 2 1 loss teams. If one of those is Oklahoma, they maybe able to steal a spot (over the PAC winner), but, if the two are a Baylor and TCU, the ZOO is shut out. A lack of a championship game and questionable strength of schedule will continue to haunt the XII.

 

[SubbaBub]

Let's say Clemson goes undefeated and wins the ACC. A 1 loss PAC team (Stanford or USC) wins the PAC. A 1 loss (Alamaba) SEC wins the SEC title over another 1 loss team (Georgia). The SEC only gets 1 slot. Undefeated and defending champion Ohio St loses wins the B1G. The XII has 2 1 loss teams. If one of those is Oklahoma, they maybe able to steal a spot (over the PAC winner), but, if the two are a Baylor and TCU, the ZOO is shut out. A lack of a championship game and questionable strength of schedule will continue to haunt the XII.

In your scenario the four would be Clemson, B12 champ, Ohio St, and Alabama. The justification would be Oregon is down, UCLA wasn't as advertised, Stanford lost to Northwestern and USC lost to Stanford.

Not saying it's fair (see previous post), it's what would happen.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

In your scenario the four would be Clemson, B12 champ, Ohio St, and Alabama. The justification would be Oregon is down, UCLA wasn't as advertised, Stanford lost to Northwestern and USC lost to Stanford.

Not saying it's fair (see previous post), it's what would happen.

If Stanford's only loss is to Northwestern at the end and Nothwestern goes undefeated until losing to Ohio St in the B1G championship, Stanford would look very good.

 

[BoatShow]

ND should be in the Big East which is essentially a league for Midwestern Catholics and have no flirtacious football relationship.

 

[CAHUSKY]

Let's say Clemson goes undefeated and wins the ACC. A 1 loss PAC team (Stanford or USC) wins the PAC.
.

Stanford or USC??? Don't count out my Golden Bears of California. Go Bears, 5-0

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It looks like Dodd had to pump up his page views. CR + Notre Dame = More page views.

Notre Dame and possible the Big 12 may wait out the playoff system's expansion to 8 teams. Once that happens, there is no reason for the Big 12 to expand and no reason for ND to join a conference.

The Big 12 would also be better off with just 8 conference games and 2 non-conference games a year against better competition.

 

[SubbaBub]

If Stanford's only loss is to Northwestern at the end and Nothwestern goes undefeated until losing to Ohio St in the B1G championship, Stanford would look very good.

Not saying it wouldn't. They still don't get in, because politics.

There are four spots. It the B12 is left out that is the other four saying get a CCG. If they don't allow a CCG for 10 then hit restart on CR.

There is so much more at stake than just who gets to play in a playoff game. The committee is run by the P5. If 4 want to avoid a B12 meltdown then they are going and someone else gets left out.

It will be the ACC unless that team is undefeated. If they are, then it's the P12 that gets left out in favor of the SEC/BIG if all have one loss.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Not saying it wouldn't. They still don't get in, because politics.

There are four spots. It the B12 is left out that is the other four saying get a CCG. If they don't allow a CCG for 10 then hit restart on CR.

There is so much more at stake than just who gets to play in a playoff game. The committee is run by the P5. If 4 want to avoid a B12 meltdown then they are going and someone else gets left out.

It will be the ACC unless that team is undefeated. If they are, then it's the P12 that gets left out in favor of the SEC/BIG if all have one loss.

Why the hell would any of the other leagues care about a Big 12 meltdown?

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Stanford or USC??? Don't count out my Golden Bears of California. Go Bears, 5-0

Can't discount Iowa either who pulled out an impressive win over Wisconsin in Madison. Was just outlining possible scenarios and meant no disrespect to any program.

Internally, the XII is a solid conference with 4 undefeated teams going into conference play. Three of which are solid in Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma with OK St, K State and W Virginia in the middle while Texas Tech and Iowa St are below average and Kansas and Texas are train wrecks. Going undefeated or ever a 1 loss season within the conference is an achievement and worthy of consideration for a Football Playoff berth. But, the lack of a conference championship games hurts it as that is what the playoff is structured around. The way to overcome that is via a strong out-of-conference schedule, which the XII does not really have considering the top 3 teams have the following schedule in 2015:

• Baylor: SMU (G5 - AAC), Lamar (FCS), Rice (G5 - CUSA)
• Oklahoma: Akron (G5 - MAC), Tennessee (P5 - SEC), Tulsa (G5 - AAC)
• Oklahoma St: Central Michigan (G5 - MAC), Central Arkansas (FCS), UT- San Antonio (G5 - CUSA)
• TCU - Minnesota (P5 - B1G), SF Austin (FCS), SMU (G5 - AAC)

So combined, the 4 schools play more FCS opponents (3) that P5 (2) and the 2 P5 teams they do play have a combined record of 5 and 5 and neither is remotely close to being ranked. Texas, being the marquee football bring in the XII, is also hurting the conference. Thus, should a 1 loss team from the XII be in competition from a 1 loss conference champion, say Stanford/Cal/USC, from the PAC, for a playoff spot - the XII is going to loose. Heck, lets say an undefeated and defending national champion Ohio St. loses to an undefeated Northwestern/Iowa in the B1G championship, I can easily see such a team taking a spot from a 1 loss XII team (assuming that 1 of the conference champions from the ACC, SEC, and PAC have 2 losses).

 

[SubbaBub]

Why the hell would any of the other leagues care about a Big 12 meltdown?

They wouldn't except it would affect them and their media deal.

So you have to ask, would they want the B12 to break up or not? The ACC, no. The rest, I think it depends. Would having 10 free agent programs hurt or help their bottom line. If the B12 had to expand would they be able to poach any P5 members?

 

[CallMeBruce]

They wouldn't except it would affect them and their media deal.

So you have to ask, would they want the B12 to break up or not? The ACC, no. The rest, I think it depends. Would having 10 free agent programs hurt or help their bottom line. If the B12 had to expand would they be able to poach any P5 members?

It would affect them and their media deal insofar as making "power conference" content more scarce, making them more valuable.

 

[SubbaBub]

It would affect them and their media deal insofar as making "power conference" content more scarce, making them more valuable.

Not if you're Fox. There are two sides to the media deals. The P5 can't move without both partners being happy. They are all intertwined financially.

Which I why I don't think the B12 will collapses and why I think this year's B12 champ gets the VIP treatment if it's a close call for the last spot.

To paraphrase Apollo Creed's cornerman, most people don't know it's a show. They think it's a real fight. NCAA Football isn't a real merit based competition, it's a show.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Not if you're Fox. There are two sides to the media deals. The P5 can't move without both partners being happy. They are all intertwined financially.

Which I why I don't think the B12 will collapses and why I think this year's B12 champ gets the VIP treatment if it's a close call for the last spot.

To paraphrase Apollo Creed's cornerman, most people don't know it's a show. They think it's a real fight. NCAA Football isn't a real merit based competition, it's a show.

FOX doesn't have the pull to get TCU or Baylor into the CFP undeserved, and certainly neither of those teams has the cache to change anyone's minds. Maybe if Oklahoma wins the Big 12, but they're going to be just as hamstrung by the lack of a CCG as they were last year.

 

[pj]

All the B12 needs is for the ACC to resume its habit of mediocrity. The ability of Florida State and then Ohio State to win national championships brightened the luster of their conferences. Now the perception is that the B12 may be the weakest conference. But an ACC losing streak will soon enough make people feel the ACC champ should be odd man out.

 

[Nostical]

My guess is that if it was Texas and Oklahoma that finished 11-1 in the B12 (and not TCU/Baylor), one or possibly both probably get in as the 4th team last year. The Frogs and Bears name cache was lacking, and with humans making the selections, that had to have been a factor, even if only subconsciously

This is spot on. Not all 12-1 resumes are factored by a human committee equally. There are brand preferences that go beyond the mere won-loss record. It's why wine tastings are done with hidden labels on the bottles.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

This is spot on. Not all 12-1 resumes are factored by a human committee equally. There are brand preferences that go beyond the mere won-loss record. It's why wine tastings are done with hidden labels on the bottles.

I agree an one loss Oklahoma or a 1 loss Texas would have had a better shot getting into the playoffs. That said, in 2014, who would have been left out? While Florida St was viewed as the weakest of the 4, no one is going to leave out the undefeated, reigning national champion, ACC conference winner from the playoffs. Alabama was ranked #1 going in, won its conference championship in the toughest conference (or so ESPN) says and is one of the top 5 college football brands. No one was leaving them even with their 1 loss at a ranked Ole Miss team. Ohio St, which had the 'weakest' loss of the 3 teams with a loss, also won its conference championship, comes from the B1G, which carries more weight than the XII, and is also a top football brand. Oregon with a loss to an OK Arizona team was considered the most explosive team and while the XII maybe greater or equal to the PAC in the conference football pecking order, also won its championship. Plus, it does not help that the two XII team vying for a playoff spot combined had 1 marquee win that that was Baylor beating TCU with decent wins over K State and Oklahoma. The two schools combined non-conference schedule featured 1 P5 team (Minnesota), 3 G5 schools (SMU twice and Buffalo), and 2 FCS schools. If a school is in a conference fighting an uphill battle to get a playoff spot because their conference does not offer a championship game, then the school must get national attention and doing so requires a competitive football schedule.

 

[Yawkey Way]

So long as ND is able to unilaterally negotiate a great financial football broadcast contract with a TV Network for itself , I can see no logical and /or financial reason why ND would want to join any conference that would compel it to share its football generated profit revenues with others in that league.

 

[whaler11]

So long as ND is able to unilaterally negotiate a great financial football broadcast contract with a TV Network for itself , I can see no logical and /or financial reason why ND would want to join any conference that would compel it to share its football generated profit revenues with others in that league.

Well for one thing the Big Ten teams are going to have higher revenue than ND - how is that for a fiancial reason?

 

[uconndogs]

So long as ND is able to unilaterally negotiate a great financial football broadcast contract with a TV Network for itself , I can see no logical and /or financial reason why ND would want to join any conference that would compel it to share its football generated profit revenues with others in that league.

What you meant to say is ND independently negotiates a TV contract. It does not negotiate unilaterally with the networks. The networks have a say in the negotiations.

That issue aside, if access to the play off and NCG come into question then arguably NDs market appeal is impaired. Of course, Whaler's point speaks for itself.