Dawn's last chance to beat Geno?

[oldude]

Whatever you may think of Dawn Staley, she’s done a remarkable job turning SC into one of the elite WBB programs in the country, bringing the school it’s first national championship in WBB last season. Throughout her basketball career, Dawn has been named to multiple AA teams, the NPOY twice, a 3-time Olympian, 6-time WNBA All-star and an inductee into the Basketball HOF in Springfield, MA. Dawn has done just about everything you could imagine as a player and coach, with one notable exception. Dawn’s teams have never beaten a Geno Auriemma coached team.

It could have happened last season when Dawn brought her loaded Gamecock team to Gampel, but on that night Gabby Williams and her teammates played heroically against the much bigger, much deeper SC team as UConn’s winning streak hit the century mark. It then looked as if a surging Gamecock team would have the opportunity for a rematch against the Huskies in the national final, but MS St ended that possibility.

I’m certain that SC didn’t lose any sleep over the fact that they won their national championship against a team with a different canine mascot than anticipated. Undoubtedly Dawn and her team would love to beat the team that represents the gold standard in WBB. While it’s always possible that SC & UConn could meet again this season, on a neutral court, during the Big Dance, tomorrow could be it for this season.

The Gamecocks, lead by AA and NPOY candidate A’ja Wilson, will be at home before a packed house in Columbia. As a result of graduation and injuries, the Gamecocks are not as strong as they were last year, IMO; and once Wilson graduates at the end of this season, they may never again have the firepower to beat a Geno Auriemma coached team.

Great players win championships, something every Husky fan knows. Don’t get me wrong, Dawn is a good recruiter and she’s always got the welcome mat out for talented transfers, but finding a powerful, athletic 6’5” star in your backyard isn’t something that happens every day. Last year’s championship and the Olympic HC gig certainly give Dawn a lot of credibility, but I just don’t see SC competing year-in and year-out for McD AA’s with the likes of Baylor, TX, ND, TN and a certain school in northeastern CT.

There’s a lot of coaches that have never beaten a Geno Auriemma coached team, particularly in recent years. Dawn’s last best chance to accomplish that feat may well be tomorrow night.

 

[Rayvin56]

Good analysis and something I hadn't considered--but I don't see SC having that tough of a time getting sufficient star talent to remain a consistent challenger for an NC.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Is Geno retiring this year?

 

[oldude]

Good analysis and something I hadn't considered--but I don't see SC having that tough of a time getting sufficient star talent to remain a consistent challenger for an NC.

I agree that SC will continue to get talented players so long as Dawn is the HC. Where I may differ slightly is that I don’t necessarily see SC bringing in that one transcendent player like Wilson who puts them over the top in challenging UConn and/or winning a 2nd national championship.

The fact that Wilson grew up a short distance from SC’s campus can not be underestimated in her decision to become a Gamecock. While, there are a number of very good players in SC, it’s not like TX, CA or other WBB hotbeds that produce Blue Chip prospects year after year. In addition, SC does not have the same national recruiting ability of a TN, ND or UConn imo.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Dawn was hoping for more out of her 2018 recruiting efforts (including Ono), but ended up ranked 17th with 2 recruits. She was gunning for 4 or 5. Many credit USC's title on the two transfer guards since departed to the WNBA. It is her recruiting that remains to me the biggest question mark about USC staying in the conversation.

 

[oldude]

Is Geno retiring this year?

I sure hope not, although I do believe that when the little Italian decides to hang it up, it will be a surprise announcement at the end of a season, hopefully not for years to come.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I sure hope not, although I do believe that when the little Italian decides to hang it up, it will be a surprise announcement at the end of a season, hopefully not for years to come.

I hope so too. While UConn winning every year is not the greatest look for everyone else, the program is special and meaningful and he's good for the game.

If South Carolina wins another title, I would hope that it comes with knocking off the best program this time. (But if that can't happen, I will take the title nonetheless).

 

[SCGamecock]

It took Geno how many years to win another championship after he won his first.. 5, I believe. And that was in an era when WBB had 1 great power (Tennessee), a rising power (UConn), and a few other good programs... WBB is way more competitive now IMO, so while it may take longer than 5 years, I don't think this is it for Dawn.

Having just won her first last year. She will build off of that. No, our recruiting didn’t improve overnight with the 2018 class post championship.. but it will improve. She’s relentless in that aspect.

SC caught lightning in a bottle with recruiting the years prior to 2015.. Welch, Mitchell, Dozier, Sessions, Ibiam, Coates, White(transfer), Duckett(transfer), Wilson all essentially local/regional players, all top 100 players. The instate talent in SC comes in waves.. 2011-2014 was an impressive wave that produced a few top 50s and a #1. Dawn supplemented those players with out of region players like Cuevas, Roy, Cliney.. and added a few really good transfers along the way in Imovbioh, Gray and Davis. Recruiting wise, 2011-2014 was a perfect storm of talent that somehow all ended up at SC.. that talent carried us from 2015 to now, with A’ja/Cuevas being the last of that “generation”. Dawn made use of that and got at least 1 title out of it (which kinda makes sense being that most of those players were around for the years of transcendent Breanna Stewart, who was greedy and won everything lol).

Talent wise, SC went into a great slump after 2014.. a really bad one. So bad that I think the state of SC may have produced only 1 top 100 player between the years of 2015-2018, Shayla Bennett (UNC) in 2016.. other players I thought could've been top 100: Kameron Roach (Kentucky) in 2017 and the underrated D'asia Gregg (Georgia Tech) in 2018. Going along with this statewide slump, SC also failed to strike big on the recruiting trail.. landing a few big fish here and there with Harris (2016) and Grissett (2017) but going blank in 2015 (our lone player, Shay Colley from Canada, transferred) and bringing in good classes still but missing most of their big out of state targets for 2017 and 2018 (Henderson is VERY important going forward). This slump is also reflected on our roster as there are no players from SC on our current roster after A'ja Wilson.

Interestingly enough and right on time it seems, the talent is slowly creeping back up in the state of SC. And while I don't think this next wave will rival what SC produced from 2011-2014.. SC is now a title winning program and if Dawn can use that to land these big instate players from the 2019-2022 classes and begin getting big out of state players as well then you can expect SC to continue being in the mix. Never say never, but there's almost too much positive in play at SC for the program to regress to anything less than a good team.

So with all of that said, my answer to your question depends on how long Geno continues coaching because I think in another 5 years or less SC will be right where UConn was around 2000/2001..

 

[oldude]

I hope so too. While UConn winning every year is not the greatest look for everyone else, the program is special and meaningful and he's good for the game.

If South Carolina wins another title, I would hope that it comes wiht knocking off the best program this time. (But if that can't happen, I will take the title nonetheless).

One of the things that impresses me most about Dawn and SC is just how much they embrace the challenge of facing UConn every year, something that’s not necessarily true of other top WBB programs. While I’ll always pull for the Huskies, I am very much looking forward to 2020 when Dawn adds Olympic Championship HC to her resume.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I agree that SC will continue to get talented players so long as Dawn is the HC. Where I may differ slightly is that I don’t necessarily see SC bringing in that one transcendent player like Wilson who puts them over the top in challenging UConn and/or winning a 2nd national championship.

The fact that Wilson grew up a short distance from SC’s campus can not be underestimated in her decision to become a Gamecock. While, there are a number of very good players in SC, it’s not like TX, CA or other WBB hotbeds that produce Blue Chip prospects year after year. In addition, SC does not have the same national recruiting ability of a TN, ND or UConn imo.

This is the big question for South Carolina right?

I think we may need to regroup for a bit, but next season's team still looks pretty good to me. If not a favorite in the SEC, it should be a factor.

USC's recruiting reach seems to be improving. I can live with losing those players to UConn although you really need to win those battles on players within the SE, its the recruiting battle losses to Ohio State, Louisville, FSU that really hurt.

 

[SCGamecock]

One of the things that impresses me most about Dawn and SC is just how much they embrace the challenge of facing UConn every year, something that’s not necessarily true of other top WBB programs. While I’ll always pull for the Huskies, I am very much looking forward to 2020 when Dawn adds Olympic Championship HC to her resume.

I think that's just the DNA of our athletic program as a whole. We're used to being the underdog in every sport (except maybe college baseball where we're the blueblood, I guess) and we play (and oftentimes have beaten) the powerhouse programs in whatever sport.. so to us it's a thing of "Why wouldn't you want to play the best WBB program every year? We play the best programs every year in literally every other sport we have."

 

[oldude]

It took Geno how many years to win another championship after he won his first.. 5, I believe. And that was in an era when WBB had 1 great power (Tennessee), a rising power (UConn), and a few other good programs... WBB is way more competitive now IMO, so while it may take longer than 5 years, I don't think this is it for Dawn.

Having just won her first last year. She will build off of that. No, our recruiting didn’t improve overnight with the 2018 class post championship.. but it will improve. She’s relentless in that aspect.

SC caught lightning in a bottle with recruiting the years prior to 2015.. Welch, Mitchell, Dozier, Sessions, Ibiam, Coates, White(transfer), Duckett(transfer), Wilson all essentially local/regional players, all top 100 players. The instate talent in SC comes in waves.. 2011-2014 was an impressive wave that produced a few top 50s and a #1. Dawn supplemented those players with out of region players like Cuevas, Roy, Cliney.. and added a few really good transfers along the way in Imovbioh, Gray and Davis. Recruiting wise, 2011-2014 was a perfect storm of talent that somehow all ended up at SC.. that talent carried us from 2015 to now, with A’ja/Cuevas being the last of that “generation”. Dawn made use of that and got at least 1 title out of it (which kinda makes sense being that most of those players were around for the years of transcendent Breanna Stewart, who was greedy and won everything lol).

Talent wise, SC went into a great slump after 2014.. a really bad one. So bad that I think the state of SC may have produced only 1 top 100 player between the years of 2015-2018, Shayla Bennett (UNC) in 2016.. other players I thought could've been top 100: Kameron Roach (Kentucky) in 2017 and the underrated D'asia Gregg (Georgia Tech) in 2018. Going along with this statewide slump, SC also failed to strike big on the recruiting trail.. landing a few big fish here and there with Harris (2016) and Grissett (2017) but going blank in 2015 (our lone player, Shay Colley from Canada, transferred) and bringing in good classes still but missing most of their big out of state targets for 2017 and 2018. This slump is also reflected on our roster as there are no players from SC on our current roster after A'ja Wilson.

Interestingly enough and right on time it seems, the talent is slowly creeping back up in the state of SC. And while I don't think this next wave will rival what SC produced from 2011-2014.. SC is now a title winning program and if Dawn can use that to land these big instate players from the 2019-2022 classes and begin getting big out of state players as well then you can expect SC to continue being in the mix. Never say never, but there's almost too much positive in play at SC for the program to regress to anything less than a good team.

So with all of that said, my answer to your question depends on how long Geno continues coaching because I think in another 5 years or less SC will be right where UConn was around 2000/2001..

SCG, well stated as always. So let me throw some numbers back at you. After upstart UConn dethroned TN in ‘95, over a 16 year period, either TN or UConn won 12 of 16 national championships. In the 23 years since ‘95, only one other team, Baylor (2), has won more than 1 national championship.

A number of teams including Purdue, TX A&M, MD, ND, Baylor & SC have all appeared to be poised to challenge UConn for WBB supremacy, but none have been able to so far on a multi-year basis.

I differ with many of my BY colleagues in my desire for UConn to have a real rivalry similar to that 16 year period when the Huskies and Lady Vols took turns knocking each other off. It would be great if the Gamecocks could be that rival.

Somebody once said, “It’s hard to get to the top, but impossible to stay there.” So far, outside of UConn, that’s been the case in WBB.

 

[oldude]

I think that's just the DNA of our athletic program as a whole. We're used to being the underdog in every sport (except maybe college baseball where we're the blueblood, I guess) and we play (and oftentimes have beaten) the powerhouse programs in whatever sport.. so to us it's a thing of "Why wouldn't you want to play the best WBB program every year? We play the best programs every year in literally every other sport we have."

If you wouldn’t mind, maybe you could write a note to the HC in Durham, NC.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I think that's just the DNA of our athletic program as a whole. We're used to being the underdog in every sport (except maybe college baseball where we're the blueblood, I guess) and we play (and oftentimes have beaten) the powerhouse programs in whatever sport.. so to us it's a thing of "Why wouldn't you want to play the best WBB program every year? We play the best programs every year in literally every other sport we have."

I never have understood why great teams or teams that wanted to be great would avoid scheduling up.

Half the fun of having a great program is taking advantage of the stage, I've always thought. It's a pleasure to face the likes of UConn, Notre Dame, Maryland, Duke, Ohio State, Louisville, FSU, UNC, UCLA, Syracuse during the season. It makes the schedule entertaining and fun, win or lose.

 

[SCGamecock]

I never have understood why great teams or teams that wanted to be great would avoid scheduling up.

Half the fun of having a great program is taking advantage of the stage, I've always thought. It's a pleasure to face the likes of UConn, Notre Dame, Maryland, Duke, Ohio State, Louisville, FSU, UNC, UCLA, Syracuse during the season. It makes the schedule entertaining and fun, win or lose.

..and it’s great to see other great players versus your own.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Whatever you may think of Dawn Staley, she’s done a remarkable job turning SC into one of the elite WBB programs in the country, bringing the school it’s first national championship in WBB last season. Throughout her basketball career, Dawn has been named to multiple AA teams, the NPOY twice, a 3-time Olympian, 6-time WNBA All-star and an inductee into the Basketball HOF in Springfield, MA. Dawn has done just about everything you could imagine as a player and coach, with one notable exception. Dawn’s teams have never beaten a Geno Auriemma coached team.

It could have happened last season when Dawn brought her loaded Gamecock team to Gampel, but on that night Gabby Williams and her teammates played heroically against the much bigger, much deeper SC team as UConn’s winning streak hit the century mark. It then looked as if a surging Gamecock team would have the opportunity for a rematch against the Huskies in the national final, but MS St ended that possibility.

I’m certain that SC didn’t lose any sleep over the fact that they won their national championship against a team with a different canine mascot than anticipated. Undoubtedly Dawn and her team would love to beat the team that represents the gold standard in WBB. While it’s always possible that SC & UConn could meet again this season, on a neutral court, during the Big Dance, tomorrow could be it for this season.

The Gamecocks, lead by AA and NPOY candidate A’ja Wilson, will be at home before a packed house in Columbia. As a result of graduation and injuries, the Gamecocks are not as strong as they were last year, IMO; and once Wilson graduates at the end of this season, they may never again have the firepower to beat a Geno Auriemma coached team.

Great players win championships, something every Husky fan knows. Don’t get me wrong, Dawn is a good recruiter and she’s always got the welcome mat out for talented transfers, but finding a powerful, athletic 6’5” star in your backyard isn’t something that happens every day. Last year’s championship and the Olympic HC gig certainly give Dawn a lot of credibility, but I just don’t see SC competing year-in and year-out for McD AA’s with the likes of Baylor, TX, ND, TN and a certain school in northeastern CT.

There’s a lot of coaches that have never beaten a Geno Auriemma coached team, particularly in recent years. Dawn’s last best chance to accomplish that feat may well be tomorrow night.

Every thing you write is factual and accurate and enjoyable to read. I agree with all you write about Ms Staley's attributes, excellence and awards--what she had accomplished at USC is truly exceptional if you consider the time it took her to do it. She deserves your good words..\

My take is Never is a long time. The predictability of who may enter her program as we have seen is unpredictable. She'll take from any soup bowl that passes her table. She will do that which is demanded to win--it's what makes Dawn--Dawn. Don't count her out until she get a full count.

 

[eebmg]

The original Geno question is just too variable with so many factors to control so I would not hazzard a guess. The more important question to me is if the SC program has staying power to be a national contender and imho, the answer is an emphatic yes. Recruiting in the long term should be strong

1) SC plays in front of the biggest home crowds
2) Her program seems able to coach already high quality players to the next level into the WNBA
3) She is the coach of the National team.
4) They play in a very competitive conference.

On the other hand, I do not expect Miss St. to go away so those 2 programs will be fighting tooth and nail for recruits etc. I think TN, TAMU, Missouri, LSU, Georgia? will stay in the top 20 regularly but will not seriously challenge for the conference or national championship

 

[HoopsFan21]

I sure hope not, although I do believe that when the little Italian decides to hang it up, it will be a surprise announcement at the end of a season, hopefully not for years to come.

I really thought it was coming after the four in a row when he said on stage after being presented the trophy "and now there are no more worlds to conquer." I expected him to add to that "so I'm done."

 

[Blueconn]

Maybe sometime along the way Dawn might catch Geno at the right time. But not soon. And perhaps, as the poster suggests, ever.

Dawn goes to class (again) in front of 18,000 in prime time. Maybe her late 80s conception of how the game is played can yet be changed. Had she been in Philly in 2000 and seen UConn dismantle Tennessee, she might have gotten the message : the UConn way to take ownership of every square foot and each second is the challenge. Every Connecticut Husky is expected to do everything...and do it the right way...all the time. Shoot, pass, rebound, dribble, and move. Especially on defense. And all move in synch. From Molly Bent to Kia Nurse. A team.

Dawn played in Kerry Bascom’s time. The landscape was different and only a few were yet aware of what Geno and CD were doing in the Field House. Bascom changed everything - and ‘95 confirmed it. Pat would fight to stay on top for the rest of her long career. Not a season passes when we don’t miss competing against mighty Tennessee. But she never could catch up to Geno’s vision and now he sails toward erasing more of her stats. But MLK ‘95 was due to Pat Summitt.

In 2000 the UConn stamp on a new era was created. The hot-shot kid at Virginia came of basketball age during the Summitt Years.

So far, it’s the way she coaches.

P.S.- Bet Missouri in their next meeting.

 

[BroadwayVa]

SCG, well stated as always. So let me throw some numbers back at you. After upstart UConn dethroned TN in ‘95, over a 16 year period, either TN or UConn won 12 of 16 national championships. In the 23 years since ‘95, only one other team, Baylor (2), has won more than 1 national championship.

A number of teams including Purdue, TX A&M, MD, ND, Baylor & SC have all appeared to be poised to challenge UConn for WBB supremacy, but none have been able to so far on a multi-year basis.

I differ with many of my BY colleagues in my desire for UConn to have a real rivalry similar to that 16 year period when the Huskies and Lady Vols took turns knocking each other off. It would be great if the Gamecocks could be that rival.

Somebody once said, “It’s hard to get to the top, but impossible to stay there.” So far, outside of UConn, that’s been the case in WBB.

I take the highlighted one step further---if any one would step up and provide that challenge--ND was very close.
When you look at Miss St actions after winning against Uconn--it has to be the thrill of a lifetime-reminds me of when Uconn beat Tn Vols the very first time--you would think they just won the super bowl, the Olympics, National Champions etc--all it was --was a TV unscheduled game--not much --just Uconn Beating the best of the best then---now the top of the mountain belongs to Uconn--who can take the top from Geno??

 

[Gamecockfan77]

The original Geno question is just too variable with so many factors to control so I would not hazzard a guess. The more important question to me is if the SC program has staying power to be a national contender and imho, the answer is an emphatic yes. Recruiting in the long term should be strong

1) SC plays in front of the biggest home crowds
2) Her program seems able to coach already high quality players to the next level into the WNBA
3) She is the coach of the National team.
4) They play in a very competitive conference.

On the other hand, I do not expect Miss St. to go away so those 2 programs will be fighting tooth and nail for recruits etc. I think TN, TAMU, Missouri, LSU, Georgia? will stay in the top 20 regularly but will not seriously challenge for the conference or national championship

Tennessee is so interesting. I feel like the right coach or even the right mix of player could put them right back in the conversation.

They obviously are still a force in recruiting and it's not like they've even bad. I think even during South Carolina's run, Tennessee has won their share.

Still starting off undefeated and losing 4 of 6 with the two wins being Ole Miss and a really uneven performance against South Carolina team in its first game without Aja Wilson seems like a danger zone for Warlick.

 

[oldude]

Every thing you write is factual and accurate and enjoyable to read. I agree with all you write about Ms Staley's attributes, excellence and awards--what she had accomplished at USC is truly exceptional if you consider the time it took her to do it. She deserves your good words..\

My take is Never is a long time. The predictability of who may enter her program as we have seen is unpredictable. She'll take from any soup bowl that passes her table. She will do that which is demanded to win--it's what makes Dawn--Dawn. Don't count her out until she get a full count.

Some of this comes down to odds. If Geno were to coach for another 20 years (we can only hope), Dawn would have a lot more chances to knock him off once or twice. Although it pains me to say so, I’d be surprised if Geno goes beyond 70, or another 6 seasons after this year.

 

[HopJim]

Maybe sometime along the way Dawn might catch Geno at the right time. But not soon. And perhaps, as the poster suggests, ever.

Dawn goes to class (again) in front of 18,000 in prime time. Maybe her late 80s conception of how the game is played can yet be changed. Had she been in Philly in 2000 and seen UConn dismantle Tennessee, she might have gotten the message : the UConn way to take ownership of every square foot and each second is the challenge. Everybody dribbles-better yet passes forward- after all rebounds, loose balls, etc. Everybody takes the shot unless something better pops up...as often happens with the 2018 Huskies. And everybody plays arms out, talking, looking, and moving defense.

Dawn played in Kerry Bascom’s time. The landscape was different. But UConn was coming fast although many had yet to notice. Pat had perfected recruiting and never met a big kid she didn’t like. The hot-shot kid at Virginia came of basketball age during the Summitt Years.

So far, it’s the way she coaches.

P.S.- Dawn Staley is younger than CHW at Knoxville. Smarter ? So maybe still, changes are possible for Staley ? No matter; UConn schools the Gamecocks on Thursday.

While all good observations, a few of the top women's college basketball teams are moving to having dominate 4's and 5's that may not move as well in offenses similar to UConn's motion system, but can pound the boards and work for close shots. The issue these teams have had is to be able to combine these assets with strong point guards. Baylor won with this style with B Griner and is again using the same system, now with two dominate bigs. My vote is that UConn will for several more years continue at #1, but over time will be interesting to see what style wins out.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Some of this comes down to odds. If Geno were to coach for another 20 years (we can only hope), Dawn would have a lot more chances to knock him off once or twice. Although it pains me to say so, I’d be surprised if Geno goes beyond 70, or another 6 seasons after this year.

Yes the probability of 100 percent wins over Dawn or any team--is near impossible.
If Geno felt the stress we saw over the Tulsa game/Transfer--any longer, his wife should get him to quit. I long ago predicted Geno would stay as long as it's fun, that wasn't fun. But it is only a blip , i hope, and as long as the health holds out --and it fun--the money is good, the fan adulation to some is close to drug like. 70 is easily do-able ,80 is possible but doubtful. To become professor emertius in coaching is worth more than the money.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Maybe sometime along the way Dawn might catch Geno at the right time. But not soon. And perhaps, as the poster suggests, ever.

Dawn goes to class (again) in front of 18,000 in prime time. Maybe her late 80s conception of how the game is played can yet be changed. Had she been in Philly in 2000 and seen UConn dismantle Tennessee, she might have gotten the message : the UConn way to take ownership of every square foot and each second is the challenge. Everybody dribbles-better yet passes forward- after all rebounds, loose balls, etc. Everybody takes the shot unless something better pops up...as often happens with the 2018 Huskies. And everybody plays arms out, talking, looking, and moving defense.

Dawn played in Kerry Bascom’s time. The landscape was different. But UConn was coming fast although many had yet to notice. Pat had perfected recruiting and never met a big kid she didn’t like. The hot-shot kid at Virginia came of basketball age during the Summitt Years.

So far, it’s the way she coaches.

P.S.- Dawn Staley is younger than CHW at Knoxville. Smarter ? So maybe still, changes are possible for Staley ? No matter; UConn schools the Gamecocks on Thursday.

Geno has earned the players he gets and he routinely does a magnificent job with them. All the credit in the world to him for implementing that great system and curating the right fits for it.

South Carolina doesn't have five top 15 players who are all great passers and shoot well from the perimeter. I'm sure we'd like to have them, but they just aren't there.

With that said, I don't think South Carolina has really had a great offensive flow consistently during this run. There were some games early this year when Spann was healthy where the flow and tempo was really good, but she got hurt and conference play always turns into a slog.

South Carolina could stand to be much better offensively and it starts with winning recruiting battles for players who don't have fatal flaws on the perimeter. But you also need to give those players the confidence to take and make those shots.

Watching South Carolina guards being fearful to take three point shots with no defenders within five feet has been painful for most of this run.