Not sure why you felt the need to post this in two different threads, but whatever.
Heaven forbid! Someone call the BY police!
For starters my numbers - like yours - have always been purely speculative and hypothetical. I don't have any inside industry knowledge, nor do I or anyone else really have a an idea what ESPN's decision making at the top look like at the moment.
Whether you want to fight me on $6.8 vs. $5 is really irrelevant since we are both dealing with numbers that are speculative at best and being generated through two different people's math via tax returns.
Also, as I've said all along, this is a one-year figure and I agree with you that it is likely to rise through the years.
My speculation that a Big 12 Network would only be worth 1/3 of an SEC network was based on two things: that the Big 12 properties are simply not as valuable as the SEC properties and that ESPN simply cannot afford to spend on a Big 12 Network the way they did with the SEC because the industry is changing.
To the first point:
Yes, UConn in the Big 12 would attract tens of millions of new potential eyeballs. That's why we're in the discussion. But that said, the rest of the conference is deeply saturated in one state: Texas. The rest of the schools play in markets worst than Hartford/New Haven, so in terms of total eyeballs, the Big 12 doesn't stack up to the SEC.
Additionally, the SEC is a lock for the CFP every year. The Big 12 had to have a handful of things break their way to get in this season. This isn't to say that the Big 12 won't improve, but the SEC is just a better conference and winning breeds popularity and popularity generates money.
The SEC is simply more valuable any way you cut it.
To the second point:
The idea that somehow FOX Sports or another network is going to be able to afford to pay an SEC-level fee for a Big 12 Network is ridiculous when they are so far behind ESPN in annual revenue.
You can't ignore the fact that the business environment that ESPN was working in when they inked the Longhorn Network and SEC Network deal no longer exists. It just doesn't. If you read the article, ESPN lost $750 Million from cord cutters over the last year. They do not have that type of money to throw at a conference network anymore.
Even if they reconfigure the LHN into a straight Big 12 Network, it's nowhere close to the SEC Network. In 2011 ESPN signed a 20 year deal for the LHN worth $300 million to Texas and IMG. To put that in perspective, the SEC's current deal with ESPN is worth $2.25 BILLION. Even with UConn's foothold in the NYC/Hartford/NH DMA, there's no way a new Big 12 Network created from the ashes of LHN can come close to that.
As I said, I totally believe that ESPN will turn these losses around and figure out a way to continue to grow and recoup the money they are losing from cord cutters, but at the moment they haven't.
I'm sorry if I am being a downer, but realistically a Big 12 Network will not approach SEC Network payout #s annually.
That doesn't mean it's not worth pursuing. After all, Oklahoma has stated it's goal the entire time was to bring stability to the conference and a network would most certainly do that.