Daily Mail article on NCAAW basketball

[trb123]

I was surprised to find this in the Daily Mail.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I'd have to examine the methodology more closely, but if you read the comments you can instantly see how this is possible.

 

[eebmg]

Glad someone explained why UConn is UConn.

 

[EricLA]

It always looks so strange to see his name spelled "Gino". Clearly the writer is clueless...

 

[oldude]

The study indicates that historically black colleges are whistled for 1.5 more fouls per game over a 10 year period, but there is no discussion of potential contributing factors or whether 1.5 fouls per game is statistically significant.

Historically black colleges do not get anywhere near the same level of talent as the top WBB programs in the country, and they don’t have the financial resources to hire the top coaches either. These programs do a wonderful job, but when a school like Howard steps on the floor against MD, they are severely overmatched in terms of size, athleticism and coaching.

So here’s a couple of hypothesis. Historically dominant WBB teams commit fewer fouls than historically weaker teams. Teams with size and athleticism commit fewer fouls than teams without size and athleticism. Teams with experienced, well paid coaches commit fewer fouls than teams that don’t have similar resources.

This article brings to mind the quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

 

[Geew1992]

Someone forgot to tell the refs doing my daughters games

 

[baggerbob]

The study indicates that historically black colleges are whistled for 1.5 more fouls per game over a 10 year period, but there is no discussion of potential contributing factors or whether 1.5 fouls per game is statistically significant.

Historically black colleges do not get anywhere near the same level of talent as the top WBB programs in the country, and they don’t have the financial resources to hire the top coaches either. These programs do a wonderful job, but when a school like Howard steps on the floor against MD, they are severely overmatched in terms of size, athleticism and coaching.

So here’s a couple of hypothesis. Historically dominant WBB teams commit fewer fouls than historically weaker teams. Teams with size and athleticism commit fewer fouls than teams without size and athleticism. Teams with experienced, well paid coaches commit fewer fouls than teams that don’t have similar resources.

This article brings to mind the quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Its like having Kelsey Plum, play against Breanna Stewart, a complete mis-match, even though Kelsey isn't a bad player.

 

[Orangutan]

It always looks so strange to see his name spelled "Gino". Clearly the writer is clueless...

It's the Daily Mail...cluelessness ought to be assumed...

 

[SVCBeercats]

It always looks so strange to see his name spelled "Gino". Clearly the writer is clueless...

Technically the author is correct. Gino is the correct spelling. In Italian the "I" is pronounced as an "e" (I- eee as in, Vino “Vee-noh”; Gino "Gee-noh"). Geno is the Americanization of Gino. But Geno is how he spells it, and this should be honored.

Americans, even apparently naturalized one, are not known for correctly pronouncing foreign words and names. Porsche is always mispronounced. We went on trip to the Italian Lake District with U. of Missouri alumni. No matter how many times our Italian hosts pronounced the town of Stresa as STRAY-SAH; these educated Americans insisted on calling it STRESS-AH.

 

[SVCBeercats]

This article brings to mind the quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Years ago I worked with brilliant fellow who developed a methodology for forecasting computer and data network usage by relating them to actual business transactions and business plans. His mathematics was spot on, however, he encouraged us to determine exactly what was the relationship and why there exists a relationship because some of the mathematical correlations were sure to be false. Dr. Dix found a correlation but has no knowledge of what exactly is the relationship and why there is a relationship. So he speculates. Why? Because he and his work gain notoriety. No doubt his methodology should be checked. Guys like him typically work the numbers to the conclusion they desire. I have reviewed several computer simulations only to discover the engineer manipulated the inputs to achieve his management's desired result for budgetary purposes.

 

[oldude]

Years ago I worked with brilliant fellow who developed a methodology for forecasting computer and data network usage by relating them to actual business transactions and business plans. His mathematics was spot on, however, he encouraged us to determine exactly what was the relationship and why there exists a relationship because some of the mathematical correlations were sure to be false. Dr. Dix found a correlation but has no knowledge of what exactly is the relationship and why there is a relationship. So he speculates. Why? Because he and his work gain notoriety. No doubt his methodology should be checked. Guys like him typically work the numbers to the conclusion they desire. I have reviewed several computer simulations only to discover the engineer manipulated the inputs to achieve his management's desired result for budgetary purposes.

Statisticians will often find a seeming correlation between an independent variable, i.e. historically black colleges, and a dependent variable, # of fouls called per game, when the relationship has little to nothing to do with the 2 variables. My earlier hypothesis suggests that the # of fouls has much more to do with a team’s talent, size, athleticism and the quality of coaches than the historical designation of the college itself.

That’s why it’s imperative for a statistician to perform a statistical sensitivity analysis across a range of variables in order to be certain that they are measuring an actual statistical correlation vs a false one.

 

[Bigboote]

The actual journal article, in "Howard journal of communications" is available online. It's an open-access journal, which raises some flags for me, but it's published by Taylor and Francis, which is a reputable publisher. It's a bit of a slog from a jargon point of view (and the author doesn't stick to consistent jargon), but there is no math to speak of. The author is a professor of communications, and I'm not sure he really understands statistics nor basketball. The paper, not unexpectedly, views foul calls as a form of communication.

I was going to post a lot of what olddude posted above. The paper did post the actual data. One thing that absolutely jumps out of the data: Eight of the teams in the top 15 in fouls called are HBC's. Seven of those are in the MEAC. Could very well be that the MEAC refs are tougher than others.