Current Bracketology

[HeGotGame]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Still comfortably in, don't F up this week and we will be fine.

 

[pepband99]

Boy, the mojo is flowing HARD with that one.

A mini-pod against dook, Bucknell, and Gonzaga? Hoo boy, gimme.

 

[Tenspro2002]

The important thing is to count the number of at-large teams behind us on the S Curve: Arizona, Seton Hall, WVU, BYU, Mississippi State, Miami, Xavier, Texas, and Northwestern.

That's 9 teams that would have to pass us for us to be totally out, and 5 teams that would have to pass us to force us into a play-in game. (This doesn't count other teams on the 10-seed line, Cincy, Alabama, and Washington (auto), who could either be ahead of or behind us.)

If we go 2-1 or better, there's no way we get jumped by that many teams. If we go 2-2, we're probably still OK. 1-2 means either last 4 in (play-in game) or first 4 out. Any worse than that, we fans will be wearing paper bags on our heads.

 

[businesslawyer]

Only the last two at-large teams play in the First Four. The other game is between the two lowest seeded conference champions.

 

[caw]

Boy, the mojo is flowing HARD with that one.

A mini-pod against dook, Bucknell, and Gonzaga? Hoo boy, gimme.

I don't see Duke as a 2 seed when it's all said and done.

UConn right now is ahead of WVU and SH on that bracket, tied with Cincy. Seems reasonable.

Honestly, there is a huge dropoff after the top 8 teams.

Duke would be a bad matchup. With UConn's failure to defend the 3 and Duke's ability to shoot, that doesn't sound like a good matchup at all. On the flip side, they don't play defense.

 

[Rico444]

Boy, the mojo is flowing HARD with that one.

A mini-pod against dook, Bucknell, and Gonzaga? Hoo boy, gimme.

And a potential Elite 8 matchup in Boston against Syracuse.

I want it.

 

[UConnSean]

And a potential Elite 8 matchup in Boston against Syracuse.

I want it.

I like your thinking my man

 

[champs99and04]

To be honest, I'd rather an eleven seed (as long as we don't have to play in the first four) than a ten seed. Caw is right in saying that there is a huge dropoff after the top eight teams, so if we can get a Michigan type team in the second round instead of a Duke or UNC, that'd be great.

Of course, we're getting way far ahead of oursevles, but that's what these message boards are for.

 

[djct1999]

lets win on tuesday first.

 

[Marat]

Just wondering, what is the highest (worst) seed UConn has been since 1990? I can't seem to recall being as high as 10. Its usually pretty good (low) .

 

[businesslawyer]

Just wondering, what is the lowest ranked seed UConn has been since 1990? I can't seem to recall being as high as 10. Its usually pretty good (low) .

The year after the dream team -- I think 90-91 -- we were a 12 or 13. That was the year we beat Shaq and LSU in the first round, got a second round game against Xavier (that was also a 12 or 13 and pulled an upset) and then lost to Duke in the Sweet 16 the next weekend. Think Laettner's face smushed into the floor.

 

[Marat]

The year after the dream team -- I think 90-91 -- we were a 12 or 13. That was the year we beat Shaq and LSU in the first round, got a second round game against Xavier (that was also a 12 or 13 and pulled an upset) and then lost to Duke in the Sweet 16 the next weekend. Think Laettner's face smushed into the floor.

Ah yes, 1991 UConn was #11. Otherwise its unusual to be seeded that high.

 

[Tenspro2002]

This year will most likely end up as our worst seed in 20 years (though better than no seed at all!). We were a #9 seed in 1992 also, but haven't been worse than a #5 seed since then.

It's pretty remarkable, really, that between 1994 and 2011, we were a #5 seed or better 14 times (including a #2 seed or better 10 times), and out of the tournament the other 4 times. We have never been a bubble team, until now.

That said, Joe Lunardi in his chat just commented that if we win 2 games the rest of the way (including BET), we will be IN.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I saw this earlier and I just have to say no way the NCAA sets up Duke with a potential 2nd round matchup with UConn.

We just easily lose in the 1st round by 15 points - but the NCAA caters way too much to Duke and UNC to have that landmine show up before the 1st weekend is over,

 

[Jaker]

Dook is a bigger fraud than usual, would love to see AO and AD hammer 21ft of Plumlee. You stop Rivers, you stop Dook.

 

[Kitaman]

I repeat: When we (fans) start paying attention to Joey Brackets we are not feeling too confident. I long for those seasons when he is irrelevant. Just saying..........

 

[Inyatkin]

We were a bubble team in 2001. Late loss to Eddie Griffin and Seton Hall killed us, but we still had an outside shot -- enough for me to watch the selection show and hope.

 

[rman726]

I saw this earlier and I just have to say no way the NCAA sets up Duke with a potential 2nd round matchup with UConn.

We just easily lose in the 1st round by 15 points - but the NCAA caters way too much to Duke and UNC to have that landmine show up before the 1st weekend is over,

I think it will suck for any #2 seed to face us in the 2nd round. The fact of the matter is that we are a much better team than a 10 seed. We are a draw for any #2 seed. But if we are a #10 seed, and beat the #7, someone has to play us. Might as well be a compelling Duke/UConn storyline.

As you said, we could just as easily lose in the 1st round, or play like complete crap in the 2nd round if we win the first. But I don't think anyone wants to see UConn that early.

 

[champs99and04]

I think it will suck for any #2 seed to face us in the 2nd round. The fact of the matter is that we are a much better team than a 10 seed. We are a ****ty draw for any #2 seed. But if we are a #10 seed, and beat the #7, someone has to play us. Might as well be a compelling Duke/UConn storyline.

As you said, we could just as easily lose in the 1st round, or play like complete crap in the 2nd round if we win the first. But I don't think anyone wants to see UConn that early.

Are we better than a 10 seed though? I realize our talent level would have us as a 2 or 3 seed, but as Bill Parcells says, "You are what your record says you are". UConn has not been a good team this year, some would say they have been a team not deserving of playing in the tournament.

I would say it's just as likely, if not more so, that we lose one of these last two games to Pitt and Providence than upset a Duke or UNC in the second round.

 

[tzznandrew]

While UConn's record in the last 10 is 3-7, look at who they lost to. Let's say they beat PC and Pitt (and frankly this analysis goes out the window if they lose those). Now they're 5-5 in the last 10, with their losses being:

Team - RPI
@Syracuse - 1
Syracuse - 1
Marquette - 7
@Georgetown - 12
@ Louisville -21

A 10 seed suggests you are somewhere between the 37-40th best team. Well, even the 18th best team would expected to go 0-5 against that slate (though only 1 game ended close, and 2 weren't really close in the second half, those two will be 8th and 10th game).

Let's say they beat Depaul, SH, and lose to Syracuse. They'd be 6-4, with their only losses to RPI 1 (x3) and 7.

Losses are losses. But at the same time, those are very good losses. Compare that to the other three 10 seeds in Lunardi's Bracket:

Cincinnati - 5 Top 50 wins. They could be tough, but they have far more bad losses. I wouldn't count them out giving a 2 seed a challenge.
Washington - 1 Top 50 win. They've been hot--but against garbage teams. The Pac-12 has 1 Top 50 team.
Alabama - 2 Top 50 wins.

I think UConn and Cincinnati look like the most dangerous 10 seeds; yet if I were a 2 seed I would be far more afraid of UConn.

 

[RuffRuff]

Bottom line with this team - win the next two. All this analysis isn't even worth digging into. They've had a horesh&t season and shouldn't even be in this spot. Yet they are capable. The next two are games they should and have to win so go out and win them.

They have plenty of bad losses - Rutgers, Central Florida, Cinci/home, etc. It's hard to make excuses for them - they've only really won the games they really, really should have. Depaul home, Hall at home w/o best player, Nova w/o their best player, a sinking WVU at home, a SJU team at home. Their win register is lousy. The only game they've won that we can even call a strong win is at ND. Somehow, someway, thankfully their RPI is strong, but what a mirage. So go take advantage of that - win two games you should after a lousy season and see if you can generate some rebirth in March. If they can't, white towel time.

 

[tzznandrew]

N - FSU is a top 25 RPI win--their only one.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Are we better than a 10 seed though? I realize our talent level would have us as a 2 or 3 seed, but as Bill Parcells says, "You are what your record says you are". UConn has not been a good team this year, some would say they have been a team not deserving of playing in the tournament.

I would say it's just as likely, if not more so, that we lose one of these last two games to Pitt and Providence than upset a Duke or UNC in the second round.

Agreed. We aren't a particularly good team. On the other hand, if you were a 2 or 3 seed, would you rather play (A) a solid, veteran team that executes to 95% of its potential every single game, but which you'd beat as long as your team played to 70% of capability or (B) a UConn team that executes at about 30% of its ability most of the time, but which, if they actually execute, can beat any team in the country? It has got to be a little scary to play a low seeded team that can take the first half off and still be tied with the #2 team in the country with under a minute to play.

 

[businesslawyer]

Agreed. We aren't a particularly good team. On the other hand, if you were a 2 or 3 seed, would you rather play (A) a solid, veteran team that executes to 95% of its potential every single game, but which you'd beat as long as your team played to 70% of capability or (B) a UConn team that executes at about 30% of its ability most of the time, but which, if they actually execute, can beat any team in the country? It has got to be a little scary to play a low seeded team that can take the first half off and still be tied with the #2 team in the country with under a minute to play.

A team like Duke would not be pleased seeing UConn in the second round. Duke has played much, much, much better hoops this season than we have, and if they had played us by now would have beaten us. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that one day the light bulb will go off for Drummond, and one day this team may start playing as a team, and if those things happen this would be a totally different basketball team.

Yes, those are huge ifs, but if you're Duke you'd rather not have to take that chance so early in the tourney. You'd rather just play a Seton Hall.

 

[tzznandrew]

If UConn didn't have that spell where they lost at Rutgers and Tennessee (one of which Calhoun missed), they'd be more in line with a 5 seed.

What were the games w/o Boatright (midseason)? @ND, Cincy, Tennessee. Did he come back for the loss home against ND? Regardless, that's 1-2, with those two losses being very close. A 19-9 UConn team is not a 10 seed (I know, that's near tautology--but missing a key player matters).

I think that's the problem for highly ranked teams. Should a 1 or 2 seed beat a 5 seed? Yes. But usually you get a week to prepare for them, they aren't the defending champions in the second round, and aren't led by a HOF coach. At a 7-10, UConn would make people unhappy.

But then again, if they don't come to play, they could just as easily lose to the 7-8 seed.

 

[champs99and04]

Agreed. We aren't a particularly good team. On the other hand, if you were a 2 or 3 seed, would you rather play (A) a solid, veteran team that executes to 95% of its potential every single game, but which you'd beat as long as your team played to 70% of capability or (B) a UConn team that executes at about 30% of its ability most of the time, but which, if they actually execute, can beat any team in the country? It has got to be a little scary to play a low seeded team that can take the first half off and still be tied with the #2 team in the country with under a minute to play.

You're right, and that's exactly why no top three seed would want UConn in their mini-pod. Duke would much rather play Seton Hall than UConn, because as you said, even if UConn plays one good game out of ten, Duke would rather not take that chance.