Wouldn't call Achonwa a superstar but I get your point.
In forecasting a wcbb team you have to look at who they lose obviously. But you have to also be aware of two factors that can be big positives: top 5 recruit and key freshmen making the sophomore leap. ND has big negatives with KM and NA leaving. But BT coming in and TR and LA becoming sophomores give them huge positives.
And I believe Massey had ND being 20 points better than A&M this year. That's a massive gap to fill--equivalent to a 2 vs 15 seed over on the men's side. It would be extraordinary to see that kind of gap close in one year.
I do agree with the idea that losing players is often over-weighted - Uconn 2003, Baylor and ND last year and ND two years ago as well - but I think there is also enough evidence for teams like Uconn 2005 or TN after Parker. I think it is especially true for teams like Stanford and Baylor this year whose offensive production was so dominated by a single player.
ND - it is not just NA and KM, but Braker was their defensive stopper. The cupboard is certainly not bare with Loyd, Allen, and Reimer, and Turner coming in, but ... They do have the advantage of a really good coach and a system that has never been focused on a single player.
Baylor - OS was their offense. They have Johnson who was a very good complementary PG and Davis who looked great until having a very freshman final game, but I think their offense depended so much on giving Sims the ball and letting her create, drawing two or three defenders, that it will be a much harder transition than they had after Griner left. Kim has spent the last 5 years running a star based offense - will she be able to transition into a balanced offense with players that have become dependent on waiting for a teammate to create.
Stanford - really similar to Baylor and I think they also are going to miss Ruef who was a very good complementary piece. Stanford has the advantage of a more disciplined and better offensive system.
TN - I will believe it when I see it. No offensive system and no defensive system to speak of. Weak side rotations, defending pick and roles, etc. etc. You can out-talent most of your opponents, but a good team can pick you apart. I could not believe what MD and Thomas were allowed to do - everyone who scouts Thomas say ... left hand dominant, and yet every time Thomas got the ball she was allowed to go left even when being double teamed.
KY - 40 minutes of dreadful. They lose their interior game to graduation so we go back to hockey game line changes. Problem is they have no half court offense or defense - no steals/turnovers and no transition offense and they give up too many points and score too few - works during the regular season and if you have an offensive player go off, but will continue to be a struggle by the time they get to Sw16 and E8.
A&M - could be an interesting team - have the coaching and some very interesting players.
Duke - if they are healthy they could be very good if JPM gets out of their way. Can they really not play man?
UNC - cupboard is not bare - X-girl could be a real surprise now that DD isn't dominating the offense. DD is a very dynamic player, but the rest of the team shot better than she did especially from the 3, and took better care of the ball. They have three very good players, do they have the coaching?
Louisville - I wouldn't count them out even after they lost three good players. Jeff is good enough to find a way.
), to MoJet taking her rightful place on the AA 1st team, to Kaleena ruling wcbb with her special brand of Air Supremacy, to Breanna's continued march toward otherworldliness, to Morgan's return to form, to Brianna's breakout year...it's probably Kiah's senior season that I'm looking forward to the most.
