Creme explains how Tennessee benefited from a weak bubble



bballnut90

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I feel like Charlie is picking and choosing his reasons at this point to justify putting in Tennessee.

First off, of Tennessee's 6 top 50 wins, 3 of those wins are over 48/49 RPI teams and a 4th is vs 45 RPI. The other 2 are vs. #29 and #31. Compare that to a team like West Virginia, who has a win over #11 Iowa State, #32 Kansas State, and #29 Texas. I'd value 1 win over Iowa State as equivalent or stronger than 4 wins over Belmont, Auburn and Clemson if I'm on the committee.

Then if you look at bad losses, Tennessee has losses to 116 Georgia, 158 Alabama, and 206 Vanderbilt vs. West Virginia's sole bad loss to 155 Oklahoma. Yeah SOS and RPI matter, but notable wins/losses tell you more about a team than their RPI IMO. No way should West Virginia be 8 spots below Tennessee.

Charlie also mentions thinking Tennessee was toast until those other teams lost, but look at their losses:
TCU-lost to Texas, an 8 seed in his bracket
USC-lost to Arizona (non tournament team...this was a bad loss)
West Virginia-lost to Kansas State, 10 seed in his bracket
Meanwhile, Tennessee beats a non-tournament team and then loses to a top 2 seed.

How does a team that looks "toast" and beats a non-tournament team all of a sudden jump several spots over the likes of West Virginia and TCU, teams who were ahead of Tennessee and lost a game they were expected to lose (TCU), or at worst it was expected to be a tossup (West Virginia)? Seems like a big change of opinion without a lot of substance behind it, but that's just my 2 cents.
 
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I feel like Charlie is picking and choosing his reasons at this point to justify putting in Tennessee.

First off, of Tennessee's 6 top 50 wins, 3 of those wins are over 48/49 RPI teams and a 4th is vs 45 RPI. The other 2 are vs. #29 and #31. Compare that to a team like West Virginia, who has a win over #11 Iowa State, #32 Kansas State, and #29 Texas. I'd value 1 win over Iowa State as equivalent or stronger than 4 wins over Belmont, Auburn and Clemson if I'm on the committee.

Then if you look at bad losses, Tennessee has losses to 116 Georgia, 158 Alabama, and 206 Vanderbilt vs. West Virginia's sole bad loss to 155 Oklahoma. Yeah SOS and RPI matter, but notable wins/losses tell you more about a team than their RPI IMO. No way should West Virginia be 8 spots below Tennessee.

Charlie also mentions thinking Tennessee was toast until those other teams lost, but look at their losses:
TCU-lost to Texas, an 8 seed in his bracket
USC-lost to Arizona (non tournament team...this was a bad loss)
West Virginia-lost to Kansas State, 10 seed in his bracket
Meanwhile, Tennessee beats a non-tournament team and then loses to a top 2 seed.

How does a team that looks "toast" and beats a non-tournament team all of a sudden jump several spots over the likes of West Virginia and TCU, teams who were ahead of Tennessee and lost a game they were expected to lose (TCU), or at worst it was expected to be a tossup (West Virginia)? Seems like a big change of opinion without a lot of substance behind it, but that's just my 2 cents.
Before the conference tournaments he already had Tennessee ahead of West Virginia. As of March 3, he had:
Last 4 in: Buffalo, Indiana, TCU, Tennessee (last team in)
First 4 out: LSU, West Virginia, Ohio, Butler
Next 4 out: USC, Virginia Tech, Miami (OH), Missouri St

As of now:
Last 4 in: Indiana, Buffalo, Tennessee, Ohio
First 4 out: TCU, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Butler
Next 4 out: St. Mary's, USC, West Virginia, LSU

From a historical perspective, it would be extremely rare for a team with 6 top-50 wins to miss the tournament, unless they have a whole bunch of bad losses (not just 2 or 3). That would be a team like Ohio State, which has 5 top 50 wins over Rutgers, North Carolina, Michigan State (twice) and Indiana, but which only went 1-3 vs. RPI 51-100 and has 4 losses to sub-100 teams (and only finished 14-14).

Even if you discount the Belmont win because Belmont wouldn't receive an at-large bid, TN still has 5 wins over legit at-large teams. Three of those 5 wins came in true road games, and another was on a neutral court.

Also from a historical perspective, I don't think a team with an RPI rank as low as West Virginia's (currently #78) has ever received an at-large bid. The lowest I'm aware of is Green Bay at #70 in 2010.

One can certainly argue that the teams he currently has listed just behind Tennessee (Ohio, TCU, etc.) should be moved up, but one can just as easily question whether teams like UCF and Buffalo belong ahead of TN:
  • UCF has zero wins over would-be at-large teams and a bad loss to Tulane. If it weren't for UCF's inexplicably high RPI of #15, I don't think they'd even have a chance ... and who knows, the committee could still leave them out.
  • Buffalo has only one win over a surefire at-large team (S. Dakota St) and then 3 wins over bubble teams (Ohio, Miami OH x2). Clearly nowhere near the resume of wins that Tennessee has. Meanwhile, Buffalo's bad losses (to Bowling Green, Akron and Dayton) are just as bad as Tennessee's bad losses.
I'm not at all convinced that UCF and Buffalo will make the at-large field or that they will be ranked ahead of Tennessee by the committee. They might, but it is highly debatable.
 
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I feel like Charlie is picking and choosing his reasons at this point to justify putting in Tennessee.

First off, of Tennessee's 6 top 50 wins, 3 of those wins are over 48/49 RPI teams and a 4th is vs 45 RPI. The other 2 are vs. #29 and #31. Compare that to a team like West Virginia, who has a win over #11 Iowa State, #32 Kansas State, and #29 Texas. I'd value 1 win over Iowa State as equivalent or stronger than 4 wins over Belmont, Auburn and Clemson if I'm on the committee.

Then if you look at bad losses, Tennessee has losses to 116 Georgia, 158 Alabama, and 206 Vanderbilt vs. West Virginia's sole bad loss to 155 Oklahoma. Yeah SOS and RPI matter, but notable wins/losses tell you more about a team than their RPI IMO. No way should West Virginia be 8 spots below Tennessee.

Charlie also mentions thinking Tennessee was toast until those other teams lost, but look at their losses:
TCU-lost to Texas, an 8 seed in his bracket
USC-lost to Arizona (non tournament team...this was a bad loss)
West Virginia-lost to Kansas State, 10 seed in his bracket
Meanwhile, Tennessee beats a non-tournament team and then loses to a top 2 seed.

How does a team that looks "toast" and beats a non-tournament team all of a sudden jump several spots over the likes of West Virginia and TCU, teams who were ahead of Tennessee and lost a game they were expected to lose (TCU), or at worst it was expected to be a tossup (West Virginia)? Seems like a big change of opinion without a lot of substance behind it, but that's just my 2 cents.

That's been my complaint about both Charlie and the committee. They never have to face the facts you brought out. But who's going to ask, the only outlet they appear on is ESPN.
 
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If Tennessee is in, it would be hard justifying the firing of a coach that has made the tourney in every season they coached.
I said this in another post, but the word is that Holly has already tendered her resignation.
 
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I said this in another post, but the word is that Holly has already tendered her resignation.
just wondering has this word appeared anywhere other than from one poster on VN?
 
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just wondering has this word appeared anywhere other than from one poster on VN?
And I think even VN deleted the thread within hours of it being started by crazy Coach Jumper who probably has a restraining order out on him to stay away from the program and players.
 
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And I think even VN deleted the thread within hours of it being started by crazy Coach Jumper who probably has a restraining order out on him to stay away from the program and players.
It wasn't Jumper that made the statement.
 
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It wasn't Jumper that made the statement.
He was quoting some newspaper article that apparently had a click bait headline. Even the Vol fans seem to doubt its veracity, and there hasn't been a peep about it since. A story that juicy would not stay secret for very long, and it would be everywhere by now 4-5 days later you would think. Have you heard anything else about it? I have not.
 
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He was quoting some newspaper article that apparently had a click bait headline. Even the Vol fans seem to doubt its veracity, and there hasn't been a peep about it since. A story that juicy would not stay secret for very long, and it would be everywhere by now 4-5 days later you would think. Have you heard anything else about it? I have not.
Once again, it wasn't Jumper. It was a different poster who has said some inside stuff before that turned out. In my estimation there's been no peep because Monday hasn't come yet. If they don't make the Mosh Pit look for the announcement Wednesday. If they make it, look for the announcement just after their 2nd round toss out.
 
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Before the conference tournaments he already had Tennessee ahead of West Virginia. As of March 3, he had:
Last 4 in: Buffalo, Indiana, TCU, Tennessee (last team in)
First 4 out: LSU, West Virginia, Ohio, Butler
Next 4 out: USC, Virginia Tech, Miami (OH), Missouri St
For those interested you can find all the 2018-19 Creme Bracketology historical info in this google spreadsheet.
 
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bballnut90

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Before the conference tournaments he already had Tennessee ahead of West Virginia. As of March 3, he had:
Last 4 in: Buffalo, Indiana, TCU, Tennessee (last team in)
First 4 out: LSU, West Virginia, Ohio, Butler
Next 4 out: USC, Virginia Tech, Miami (OH), Missouri St

As of now:
Last 4 in: Indiana, Buffalo, Tennessee, Ohio
First 4 out: TCU, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Butler
Next 4 out: St. Mary's, USC, West Virginia, LSU

From a historical perspective, it would be extremely rare for a team with 6 top-50 wins to miss the tournament, unless they have a whole bunch of bad losses (not just 2 or 3). That would be a team like Ohio State, which has 5 top 50 wins over Rutgers, North Carolina, Michigan State (twice) and Indiana, but which only went 1-3 vs. RPI 51-100 and has 4 losses to sub-100 teams (and only finished 14-14).

Even if you discount the Belmont win because Belmont wouldn't receive an at-large bid, TN still has 5 wins over legit at-large teams. Three of those 5 wins came in true road games, and another was on a neutral court.

Also from a historical perspective, I don't think a team with an RPI rank as low as West Virginia's (currently #78) has ever received an at-large bid. The lowest I'm aware of is Green Bay at #70 in 2010.

One can certainly argue that the teams he currently has listed just behind Tennessee (Ohio, TCU, etc.) should be moved up, but one can just as easily question whether teams like UCF and Buffalo belong ahead of TN:
  • UCF has zero wins over would-be at-large teams and a bad loss to Tulane. If it weren't for UCF's inexplicably high RPI of #15, I don't think they'd even have a chance ... and who knows, the committee could still leave them out.
  • Buffalo has only one win over a surefire at-large team (S. Dakota St) and then 3 wins over bubble teams (Ohio, Miami OH x2). Clearly nowhere near the resume of wins that Tennessee has. Meanwhile, Buffalo's bad losses (to Bowling Green, Akron and Dayton) are just as bad as Tennessee's bad losses.
I'm not at all convinced that UCF and Buffalo will make the at-large field or that they will be ranked ahead of Tennessee by the committee. They might, but it is highly debatable.

So when did Charlie think Tennessee was 'toast' then? Just doesnt add up unless I'm missing something.


On the flipside of the historical side of things, I wonder how many at large bids there have been for teams that have had 3 losses as bad as Tennessee's with zero top 25 RPI wins. You know this stuff better than I do, but I'm guessing Tennessee is a rarity there among at large teams.

And I dont see West Virginia getting a bid due to their RPI either. I hope voters overlook their slew of dominant wins over 300+ RPI teams (which is the cause of their low RPI) and look at the product on the court and look at good wins/losses/play vs tournament teams.

Honestly if they are left out though, it's 100% on Mike Carey for his atrocious OOC schedule. Based on how their results, West Virginia absolutely is a top 32 at large team IMO but Carey didnt cater to the RPI formula when scheduling which will cost them.
 
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So when did Charlie think Tennessee was 'toast' then? Just doesnt add up unless I'm missing something.


On the flipside of the historical side of things, I wonder how many at large bids there have been for teams that have had 3 losses as bad as Tennessee's with zero top 25 RPI wins. You know this stuff better than I do, but I'm guessing Tennessee is a rarity there among at large teams.

And I dont see West Virginia getting a bid due to their RPI either. I hope voters overlook their slew of dominant wins over 300+ RPI teams (which is the cause of their low RPI) and look at the product on the court and look at good wins/losses/play vs tournament teams.

Honestly if they are left out though, it's 100% on Mike Carey for his atrocious OOC schedule. Based on how their results, West Virginia absolutely is a top 32 at large team IMO but Carey didnt cater to the RPI formula when scheduling which will cost them.
Definetly agree with Mike Carey’s soft scheduling. I would also add missing Kysre Godzerick (butchered her last name) was a big blow too. I wonder if she just gave up basketball to Pursue Instagram modeling.
 
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So when did Charlie think Tennessee was 'toast' then? Just doesnt add up unless I'm missing something.


On the flipside of the historical side of things, I wonder how many at large bids there have been for teams that have had 3 losses as bad as Tennessee's with zero top 25 RPI wins. You know this stuff better than I do, but I'm guessing Tennessee is a rarity there among at large teams.

And I dont see West Virginia getting a bid due to their RPI either. I hope voters overlook their slew of dominant wins over 300+ RPI teams (which is the cause of their low RPI) and look at the product on the court and look at good wins/losses/play vs tournament teams.

Honestly if they are left out though, it's 100% on Mike Carey for his atrocious OOC schedule. Based on how their results, West Virginia absolutely is a top 32 at large team IMO but Carey didnt cater to the RPI formula when scheduling which will cost them.
He briefly had Tennessee out of the tournament (first or second team out, I think) after the Vandy loss. So maybe that's what he means by (momentarily) "toast." But at that time I think he also had LSU as just barely in. Tennessee then beat LSU, and other bubble teams faltered, and voilà.

Carey schedules that way every year. It surely must be on purpose. Two years ago WVU looked like a doubtful bubble team until they went on their big run in the Big 12 tournament and snagged a 7 seed. I guess he thinks his team is better off taking the RPI hit if it means giving them 7 or 8 easy scrimmages against "D-I in name only" teams.
 
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Boxerpups4me

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Once again, it wasn't Jumper. It was a different poster who has said some inside stuff before that turned out. In my estimation there's been no peep because Monday hasn't come yet. If they don't make the Mosh Pit look for the announcement Wednesday. If they make it, look for the announcement just after their 2nd round toss out.
I saw the same post...the same poster also somehow knew that tea cooper was getting the boot from tennessee way before it became public, so there might be something to it
 
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I saw the same post...the same poster also somehow knew that tea cooper was getting the boot from tennessee way before it became public, so there might be something to it
As I said. It also seems Holly has let some of her tenant know that she doesn't plan to return next year.
 
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Tennessee shouldn’t be in. They’ve horribly underperformed and are a disgrace to the name across their jerseys.
 
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As I said. It also seems Holly has let some of her tenant know that she doesn't plan to return next year.
No, No, No! Please say it isn't so. TN and Holly deserve each other. She should have lifetime position there. We are playing them next year - what fun is that without Holly at the helm? I am very disappointed.

 

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