Creme Bracketology 3/4

[Plebe]

You make good points. My disagreement is with those who say "if they want a better RPI they need to schedule more top 50 teams, like it's just a matter of making a call or 2 because there are loads of P5 teams lining up to schedule these games. That simply isn't true.

But again, it's a fallacy to conflate "top 50" with "power 5." Only about half of the P5 teams are in the top 50, and a team can "schedule up" by playing quality teams from non-P5 conferences.

 

[bennyskid]

What really disadvantages the mid-major powers is not that they can't get enough top-50 or top-100 games (although that is a legitimate frustration). It is that the RPI punishes teams way too hard when they play sub-200 or sub-300 teams. When evaluating tournament teams, the difference between beating #120, #220, or #320 is trivial - a tournament team should win all three games easily. But playing the #320 team absolutely destroys your RPI.

Is this right? Team A and Team B play identical schedules with identical results, and are on the bubble going into their conference tourneys. Then Team A plays three games, beating a 1-30 team, a 3-28 team, and the defending nation champion 30-1 team in the finals. Team B beats three 12-19 teams. Which will have the higher RPI? Team B.

Mid-major conferences invariably have more sub-200 teams than the power conferences. Drake can't get enough good wins to compensate for playing Valpo and Evansville. Even if they played nothing but top-100, Power 5 teams in November and December, they would still struggle to get their RPI into the top 16. And UConn has zero margin for error if a Top 4 RPI is a goal. Fortunately, the committee looks very hard at the top seeds and the fact that UConn is only #6 right now won't cost them a 1-seed. But when it comes to deciding who gets the last 4-seed (and hosting), I don't think teams like Gonzaga and Drake get a fair shake. And when you get to the last bubble teams, it's obvious that the mid-majors are at a huge disadvantage.

There are simple fixes. The most obvious is to simply calculate an "adjusted RPI" that ignores victories against teams below a reasonable threshold - say, #176 (the median school). (Losses would stay in the calculation, of course.) That would make the RPI a little less obviously bad.

 

[Plebe]

What really disadvantages the mid-major powers is not that they can't get enough top-50 or top-100 games (although that is a legitimate frustration). It is that the RPI punishes teams way too hard when they play sub-200 or sub-300 teams.

This is, at best, an oversimplification.

Let's look at the case of Rice. C-USA is a weak conference: 8 of its 14 teams are outside the RPI top 150, including 3 sub-300 teams. Despite this, Rice's RPI has risen from about #100 at the start of C-USA play to #34 now.

Let's look at Quinnipiac, a decent team in an *extremely* weak conference, ranked 26th out of 32 D-I conferences in the RPI. Eight of the MAAC's 11 teams are outside the RPI top 200. But Quinnipiac's RPI, like Rice's, has *improved* since the start of conference play, from the mid-60s to #44 right now.

There is certainly a difference between playing the #120 team and playing #320. Just from a statistical standpoint, top-50 teams lose to teams in the 101-200 range far more often than they lose to sub-300 teams. The following projected at-large or bubble teams have losses in the RPI 101-200 range: Marquette, Syracuse, Rutgers, DePaul, Central Michigan, Kansas State, UCLA, Buffalo, South Dakota, North Carolina, Michigan State, Indiana, Clemson, TCU, Tennessee, West Virginia. But of the teams currently projected as at-large or bubble teams, only BYU has a loss to the bottom 100 of the RPI. (Miami of Ohio, a fringe bubble team, also has a loss in this range.)

 

[Tonyc]

Gotta see what happens in the bracketology. Is Tenn in or out?

 

[JordyG]

No offense, but I don't care. Lou's back still hurts.

 

[DefenseBB]

Gotta see what happens in the bracketology. Is Tenn in or out?

Hopefully Phil Fullmer realizes Holly and the girls gave all they had against a far superior MSU team and rewards her and the BY faithful with a further extension of her contract, NCAAT or not!

 

[oldude]

I think it comes down to how many SEC teams get to the Big Dance. If it’s 6-7, TN may be out. If it’s 8, TN is likely in.

The number of SEC teams in the Big Dance can be affected by upsets in the conference tournaments. For instance, let’s say Depaul upsets Marquette in the Big East. Depaul gets the AQ, but Marquette is nationally ranked, so they will still go, and maybe that means one less SEC team.

 

[Centerstream]

TN is in, Charlie Creme said so yesterday.


PS. I am not a drinker of Charlie Creme Koolaid.

 

[DefenseBB]

I think it comes down to how many SEC teams get to the Big Dance. If it’s 6-7, TN may be out. If it’s 8, TN is likely in.

The number of SEC teams in the Big Dance can be affected by upsets in the conference tournaments. For instance, let’s say Depaul upsets Marquette in the Big East. Depaul gets the AQ, but Marquette is nationally ranked, so they will still go, and maybe that means one less SEC team.

As usual, your logic is spot on and this despite the dreaded SEC being the WORST of the P5 conferences and they still will get 6 possibly 7 teams in. Boy do I want upsets! Locks from the SEC are MSU, SC, KY, Mizzou, Auburn, Texas A&M. Bubble is Georgia RPI-113 Massey-61, LSU RPI-75/M-57 and Tenn RPI-59/M-47

The Tenn peripherals are better than both LSU and Georgia but the RPI doesn't warrant NCAA inclusion. Unfortunately, the committee will do all it can to keep Tenn in, IMHO. What am I missing?

 

[PoppaBear]

In

 

[Oldbones]

 

[bennyskid]

Maybe there is a small difference between playing #120 and #320, but there is zero difference between playing #220 and #320, and that is where the problem is. That Rice could go undefeated in their conference and yet still be a bubble team is bad enough. That UAB could go 24-5 and not even be close to being considered (they are #100) is ridiculous. I'm not saying that UAB belongs over, say, Tennessee. I'm just saying that the RPI, as it stands, is preventing teams like UAB from even getting a look.

 

[Plebe]

I think it comes down to how many SEC teams get to the Big Dance. If it’s 6-7, TN may be out. If it’s 8, TN is likely in.

The number of SEC teams in the Big Dance can be affected by upsets in the conference tournaments. For instance, let’s say Depaul upsets Marquette in the Big East. Depaul gets the AQ, but Marquette is nationally ranked, so they will still go, and maybe that means one less SEC team.

The most the SEC will get now is 7. LSU’s RPI is now 81, I’ll bet my pickup that they ain’t getting in. Auburn is very likely in and will be ahead of Tennessee even if they lose badly today to A&M. Tennessee is right near the cut line. A lot will depend on what other bubble teams do and whether any bid stealers emerge from the WCC, the MVC, the Summit, or the MAC.

 

[socal613ws]

Have made the tourny since 1982, a reminder of how much we should appreciate this Uconn run, never in a million years did I think this volunteer program would ever be bad, knew it wouldn't the same without Summit but not like this.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

If tennessee got in over georgia, it would ve a shame because they beat the vols and finished with a 9-7 sec record

 

[baggerbob]

The most the SEC will get now is 7. LSU’s RPI is now 81, I’ll bet my pickup that they ain’t getting in. Auburn is very likely in and will be ahead of Tennessee even if they lose badly today to SC. Tennessee is right near the cut line. A lot will depend on what other bubble teams do and whether any bid stealers emerge from the WCC, the MVC, the Summit, or the MAC.

If you go by the eye test, Tennessee would be out. A win over Texas isn't a big deal, they are a bad team. The Big 12 is a disaster.

 

[Blue Huskie]

If you go by the eye test, Tennessee would be out. A win over Texas isn't a big deal, they are a bad team. The Big 12 is a disaster.

Boy that's for sure. TENN has no business getting an invite. RPI be damned. They are awful.

 

[Plebe]

If tennessee got in over georgia, it would ve a shame because they beat the vols and finished with a 9-7 sec record

This is an excellent example of how conference standings per se are not particularly relevant to NCAA tournament selection, because (a) they reflect less than 60% of the total resume and (b) unbalanced conference schedules distort the comparison. Georgia had a particularly easy SEC schedule in which they played 6 of their 16 conference games against the bottom 4 teams.

The really glaring problem with Georgia’s resume in the committee’s eyes is that their wins over Tennessee, LSU and Arkansas are they closest thing they have to qualify wins. Never mind the fact that their RPI is outside the top 100.

 

[Plebe]

If you go by the eye test, Tennessee would be out. A win over Texas isn't a big deal, they are a bad team. The Big 12 is a disaster.

Now this I agree with. I think they look horrible and I personally have to hold my nose when I watch them play.

However, the Texas win is only Tennessee’s second best win. Their best win is the road win at Missouri, and unfortunately, that win just got more valuable today with Mizzou’s win over Kentucky