A good rule in both politics and sports -- even "amateur" sports now -- is to "follow the money." The money comes from football -- from boosters, ticket sales, merchandise. but mostly from the media, and most of the media money now comes from ABC/ESPN/Disney and Fox, but CBS and Comcast/NBC could decide to get more involved. What these media giants want, and what they are willing to pay for it, will be the biggest determining factor in where everything in college football shakes out.
I believe you'll see ESPN engineer some deals that will have TX and OK playing in the SEC (or whatever they rename it) long before 2025. And now that college players can get paid (let's call it what it is!) it opens up a whole new world of possibilities. The SEC or any super conference with a big media deal could guarantee each of their players a certain number of dollars, with star players making more. (Alabama's new quarterback hasn't started a game yet and he's already assured of nearly a million dollars!)
Worried about what the NCAA might say? Don't be. They are virtually irrelevant now when it comes to top level college football. They control every other college sport championship -- but not football. And they are unlikely to be able to control or object to any player, team, or football conference financial arrangements because of recent legal precedent. You thought athletic gear deals were an issue? You're about to see football players and teams sponsoring cars, vacation destinations, cruises, TV shows, events, and all sorts of products. The only upside is that it will become so lucrative for star players that they'll lose the incentive to turn pro early! ("Sure, I'll stay another year coach, if you can guarantee me a million in endorsements!) There are already new sports agencies being formed to handle this universe of new high-earning sports stars. You can expect players to be taking voice and acting lessons to get them more TV-genic.
Where does UConn fit? Well let's start with the elephant -- the football program is almost a national joke and it will be a long road back no matter how much money is spent and I'm not sure that much will be. UConn Football and its fans will continue to pay for the awful mistakes made by the University's sports administrators. There's still an untapped media interest in a good football program in the NY media market. But Rutgers seems a more likely candidate to eventually provide it and, boy, isn't that saying something!
UConn's spot in the Big East is safe, so WBB, MBB and all the other sports should be fine, or at least as fine as they are now, no matter what the football gods do. Geno and his players will be able to take in some promotional dollars on both a local and national scale (unless ESPN moves their HQ!) to a greater extent than almost any other program because they'll continue to have the notoriety and marketing help to do it. It remains to be seen if teams and conferences will try to come up with sharing schemes for player promotional dollars or put some controls on payments to players. (I think they'll have to! "Hey coach, Jen and I can't make practice today because we're shooting a Lincoln dealership commercial.")
Interesting times ahead, for sure.