Could it still be Missouri, after all?

[ZooCougar]

Rutgers gets 400 people at a basketball game, yet they are worth $50 mn + to the B1G, and probably triple what Oregon would be worth. Oregon has achieved a lot, but in the B1G's model, that doesn't make up for their small market. Now, in the ACC business model, Oregon is worth substantially more than UConn, I'll grant you.

The B1G model is tantamount to gerrymandering, and it could be suspect. That's what Rutgers is estimated to be worth. We'll see how that holds up.

In any model Oregon is worth more. They are a national brand, they boost your contract up by god knows how much.

 

[whaler11]

The B1G model is tantamount to gerrymandering, and it could be suspect. That's what Rutgers is estimated to be worth. We'll see how that holds up.

In any model Oregon is worth more. They are a national brand, they boost your contract up by god knows how much.

Yeah, I had some fun with the UConn comment but... Arizona is worth more than Oregon? Arizona State is worth more than Arizona. Colorado is worth more than Oregon?

Did I miss a volcanic eruption that missed Washington and destroyed Oregon?

 

[CoastAtlantic]

I have mentioned Mizzou in another thread but as part of the Kansas-Mizzou pair, which would be the last two schools added if the B1G wanted two more schools to complete their puzzle. That will also depend on when Kansas would be available after the BXII Grant of Rights ends.

 

[whaler11]

I have mentioned Mizzou in another thread but as part of the Kansas-Mizzou pair, which would be the last two schools added if the B1G wanted two more schools to complete their puzzle. That will also depend on when Kansas would be available after the BXII Grant of Rights ends.

And it would depend on Missouri... LEAVING THE SEC AFTER THE BIG TEN PASSED THEM OVER MULTIPLE TIMES.

 

[CoastAtlantic]

I agree. Mizzou is a very long shot at this point. Can they get over those hurt feelings that quickly?

 

[B1GOSU]

Neither Kansas or Mizzou bring new recruiting territory to the B1G. Kansas doesn't bring many TV sets either. BTN is already on basic cable in St Louis, as it borders Illinois. I think this is why the B1G Presidents could not unanimously agree to add them. They migh have had a majority in favor, but the B1G seems to only want to make expansion moves when it's unanimous as it was with Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers. That's a shift from the past, as Penn State and Michigan State were not unanimous additions in decades past.

 

[ZooCougar]

I have mentioned Mizzou in another thread but as part of the Kansas-Mizzou pair, which would be the last two schools added if the B1G wanted two more schools to complete their puzzle. That will also depend on when Kansas would be available after the BXII Grant of Rights ends.

What pair? Only outsiders see it that way. Mizzou moved on to bigger and better things. They aren't leaving the SEC.

 

[UConnDan97]

God almighty with these threads sometimes.

Look, there are few in this world who are more optimistic than I am; more capable of believing in the improbable. But if anyone believes that Mizzou is going to leave the SEC, after having demonstrated that they can be successful in the conference from both a performance and a monetary standpoint, then you are hitting the crackpipe too hard. You have to do your crack in moderation! Too much crack...not so good...

 

[CoastAtlantic]

What pair? Only outsiders see it that way. Mizzou moved on to bigger and better things. They aren't leaving the SEC.

You're probably right that they won't leave the SEC. The thing that you miss is that the hardcore B1G fans in the cornbelt are unhappy about the move East. I linked an article in the other thread from one of them. They would prefer a Mizzou to another East school, as unlikely as that is now. The presidents can't continue to defy the fans like they did last time or donors will drop out. Most likely is everybody's in their places for the near future. After that is anybody's guess.

 

[pj]

God almighty with these threads sometimes.

Look, there are few in this world who are more optimistic than I am; more capable of believing in the improbable. But if anyone believes that Mizzou is going to leave the SEC, after having demonstrated that they can be successful in the conference from both a performance and a monetary standpoint, then you are hitting the crackpipe too hard. You have to do your crack in moderation! Too much crack...not so good...

I don't hit my crackpipe. Too precious, it might break.

It's improbable that Missouri would leave the SEC, but it's even more improbable that the B1G would ask them, since they passed on Missouri already - must not fit be a compelling case. And I can see that, if they think they have St Louis already for the BTN, Kansas might add more value than Missouri since it would bring a new state and the other major city in Missouri, Kansas City, and also the Univ of Missouri may not show up well on metrics of in-state fan interest due to pro sports competition and the remoteness of Columbia. It's also not a bridge to a higher-value target the way Kansas might bring Oklahoma and Texas or Virginia might bring UNC. Arguably, if you were to raid the SEC, Kentucky would bring more value than Missouri.

But, what do we have to hope for in the near term, but the improbable? It's even more improbable that the B12 or ACC GoRs will be tested so far from their expiration. It's improbable any non-P5 schools other than UConn would be attractive to the B1G (Buffalo???). In B1G expansion terms, it's probably UConn + an SEC team, UConn as #15 without a partner, or nothing.

UConn brings more value to the B1G than anyone else, so I think that's the logical endpoint. But they are an exclusive club and can be patient.

 

[RMoore1999]

Why would Mizzou want to leave the SEC? They begged the B1G to get in and were spurned each time before getting a life raft from the SEC. It's kind of like if Uconn were to get into the B1G and then the ACC invited Uconn. No way they go now.

B1G has already spurned UConn (at least temporarily). If ACC decided to expand again finally with UConn, we'd obviously accept. But we would still thereafter jump immediately if B1G later came calling. There's a 0% chance our ACC bad blood and B1G disappointment would cause us to think twice in accepting an invite to either conference.

Though Mizzou's chances at a 4-team playoff would be greatly enhanced if in B1G, their SEC vs. B1G preference ultimately comes down to culture / long term vision of institutional values.

Hurt feelings not a factor.

Mizzou to B1G shouldnt shock anyone.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I recently found myself in Missouri.

I think if you asked 1,000 Americans what state borders Missouri to the south - on average 15 could answer.

8 states are contiguous with Missouri and every one is south of Missouri at some place.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

There is no such thing as the right airport in Missouri. Honestly this place is so dumb, there is a town nearby that is about to overturn the smoking ban.

Gasp! They're actually considering permitting people to exercise personal liberty?

 

[whaler11]

8 states are contiguous with Missouri and every one is south of Missouri at some place.

Is this like where CL82 argues for dozens of posts for an on campus stadium and then uses pedantic grammar arguments to claim he isn't?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Is this like where CL82 argues for dozens of posts for an on campus stadium and then uses pedantic grammar arguments to claim he isn't?

Nope, all 8 states, Iowa included, have territory bordering Missouri that is south of the contiguous Missouri point.

 

[Kolumbo]

8 states are contiguous with Missouri and every one is south of Missouri at some place.

These are great facts about Missouri. And its two largest cities are on the state borders, so half of their suburban populations probably live outside of Missouri.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

8 states are contiguous with Missouri and every one is south of Missouri at some place.

Is this like where CL82 argues for dozens of posts for an on campus stadium and then uses pedantic grammar arguments to claim he isn't?

Nope, all 8 states, Iowa included, have territory bordering Missouri that is south of the contiguous Missouri point.

Heads up, whaler, incoming mea culpa! It's an old trivia question that I thought I remembered correctly, but now I'm thinking I got it backwards. Show Me Staters can enter all 8 surrounding states by traveling north from some point in Missouri (not the same point just some point). Hopefully you haven't wasted half the day on-hold with the US Geodesic Survey.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

These are great facts about Missouri. And its two largest cities are on the state borders, so half of their suburban populations probably live outside of Missouri.

See my infallibility disclaimer above.

 

[whaler11]

Nope, all 8 states, Iowa included, have territory bordering Missouri that is south of the contiguous Missouri point.

Sorry obviously I meant the southern border with Arkansas. Since one is generally midwest and the other southeast, that they share an entire border is one that I bet most people dont realize.

 

[Plains&Lakes]

Neither Kansas or Mizzou bring new recruiting territory to the B1G. Kansas doesn't bring many TV sets either. BTN is already on basic cable in St Louis, as it borders Illinois. I think this is why the B1G Presidents could not unanimously agree to add them. They migh have had a majority in favor, but the B1G seems to only want to make expansion moves when it's unanimous as it was with Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers. That's a shift from the past, as Penn State and Michigan State were not unanimous additions in decades past.

The Big Ten, despite its supposed elitism, is pretty egalitarian among its own members. "Unanimous" may well be the new standard. There was some blog comment (or multiple blogs) that Wisconsin and Michigan said "no" to FSU, while OSU was in favor. No doubt Missouri has in the past-and probably in the present-vetted in detail. I think that you can likely put UConn in that category. I'd take them both in a heartbeat and put a "Closed for business" sign with boutique shop hours for Notre Dame and Texas if the near impossible happens.

 

[Seaa Blue]

These are great facts about Missouri. And its two largest cities are on the state borders, so half of their suburban populations probably live outside of Missouri.

East St. Louis, IL, and Kansas City, KS are not all that attractive and both have bridges to cross.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Sorry obviously I meant the southern border with Arkansas. Since one is generally midwest and the other southeast, that they share an entire border is one that I bet most people dont realize.

I knew you meant Ark. but was eager to display my extensive store of utterly useless facts. Of course I screwed it up so now I've got to go back and reexamine my entire life's plan. Any suggestions?

 

[UConnDan97]

I don't hit my crackpipe. Too precious, it might break.

It's improbable that Missouri would leave the SEC, but it's even more improbable that the B1G would ask them, since they passed on Missouri already - must not fit be a compelling case. And I can see that, if they think they have St Louis already for the BTN, Kansas might add more value than Missouri since it would bring a new state and the other major city in Missouri, Kansas City, and also the Univ of Missouri may not show up well on metrics of in-state fan interest due to pro sports competition and the remoteness of Columbia. It's also not a bridge to a higher-value target the way Kansas might bring Oklahoma and Texas or Virginia might bring UNC. Arguably, if you were to raid the SEC, Kentucky would bring more value than Missouri.

But, what do we have to hope for in the near term, but the improbable? It's even more improbable that the B12 or ACC GoRs will be tested so far from their expiration. It's improbable any non-P5 schools other than UConn would be attractive to the B1G (Buffalo???). In B1G expansion terms, it's probably UConn + an SEC team, UConn as #15 without a partner, or nothing.

UConn brings more value to the B1G than anyone else, so I think that's the logical endpoint. But they are an exclusive club and can be patient.

What we have to hope for are the same things that we've had to hope for during the past 2 years. The idea that either the ACC, B1G, or in an extremely rare case, the Big12 would add us to their conference. But we don't have to compound the improbable hope by pinning it against a team that has no logical reason to leave their current conference like Mizzou.

If we want to fantasize about going to the B1G, there's no problem invoking many of the other schools that would have a better chance of going (a.k.a., Kansas, UVA). But let's not multiply crazy x crazy in order to end up with crazy squared...

 

[Plains&Lakes]

What we have to hope for are the same things that we've had to hope for during the past 2 years. The idea that either the ACC, B1G, or in an extremely rare case, the Big12 would add us to their conference. But we don't have to compound the improbable hope by pinning it against a team that has no logical reason to leave their current conference like Mizzou.

If we want to fantasize about going to the B1G, there's no problem invoking many of the other schools that would have a better chance of going (a.k.a., Kansas, UVA). But let's not multiply crazy x crazy in order to end up with crazy squared...

The odds are against any single school going into the Big Ten, but there is a chance (with different odds for each school) for every school. Now with Hawaii, the odds might be 500,000 to one (you pick the odds), but it seems to me that UConn and one other team from the entire field it likely inevitable in the long run.

 

[NickyNewark]

The B1G model is tantamount to gerrymandering, and it could be suspect. That's what Rutgers is estimated to be worth. We'll see how that holds up.

In any model Oregon is worth more. They are a national brand, they boost your contract up by god knows how much.

National? You must have been born since "75"...I was born in "51" and Oregon wasnt even regional until this century....I can't believe some peoples perception change so fast?? Before Brian Kelly NH's highflying offensive HC was hired NO ONE cared or knew(esp here in the NE) about them(and I lived in LA) and I lived on the west coast in the 70s in fact Im not sure but think they were as low as anyone can get in the P10(until recently)..money can buy a lot but not blueblood.... Heck Wisky is barely national and Barry Alvarez gave them national attention fairly recently to anyone over 45!! The Washington Huskies were way more national than woebegone!! A little flash on offense and uni's and a fad is born but certainly NOT a national brand like the Nike sponsor's!! Maybe 20 yrs from now if they can keep it going IMO. USC,UCLA maybe Stanford but not Oregon yet.

 

[UConnDan97]

The odds are against any single school going into the Big Ten, but there is a chance (with different odds for each school) for every school. Now with Hawaii, the odds might be 500,000 to one (you pick the odds), but it seems to me that UConn and one other team from the entire field it likely inevitable in the long run.

So....what are you getting at?

My argument is against the idea that Missouri would leave the SEC. That doesn't mean that the B1G won't expand. That doesn't mean that UConn won't end up in the B1G. It just means that it's ridiculously unlikely that it would be with Missouri as a partner...

 

[geordi]

I may have asked you before about you ? Is that pub in your avatar in Portmagee over the bridge from Valentia Island in County Kerry, Ireland?

If so, I have stopped for pints there a couple of times. A nice pub.

Aye, lad, it is. Very observant of ye! 'Tis a wonderful thing to have a few pints of Guinness (Black Valium) in such a beautiful place. Portmagee also has a very, very cool new year's celebration. It's worth the trip.

 

[Plains&Lakes]

So....what are you getting at?

My argument is against the idea that Missouri would leave the SEC. That doesn't mean that the B1G won't expand. That doesn't mean that UConn won't end up in the B1G. It just means that it's ridiculously unlikely that it would be with Missouri as a partner...

Since Missouri is not in a GOR, I think that the odds of Missouri coming into the Big Ten are at least measurable. While I do not want to get into any argument about odds, I might set the odds of Missouri coming to the Big Ten at 20 to 1 against. It's still 5%. It is hard to believe that UVA, with the GOR, are better than 5%, and maybe less. Now UNC is further away and likes to be the kingpin and their is an anti-Northern viewpoint that we have to expect, so lets say 3%. Likewise for GT, which is far away, but has a very compatible engineering schools and a great many out-of-state alumni and students. FSU? -Far away, but maybe 4%.
Vanderbilt?-It would like the academics of the Big Ten, but it has been the SEC for a long time. Maybe 2%. UConn, just purely for the sake of speculation, might be 60%. I would greatly welcome, other than UConn, schools that you think are more likely to come to the Big Ten and the reasons why. I might, with non-serious conviction, place Oklahoma and Kansas at 3-4%. A sleeper, in my humble, speculative opinion, might be VT, which brings relative proximity. a pretty good football program, a compatible-to-Big Ten Engineering school, a not too long tenure in the ACC, and not such a large endowment to almost ignore money like UVA. For the sake of speculation of fun, let's say 6%.

So maybe there is, exempting a dynamic transformation of the Power 5 structure, a 20 to 25 % chance of at least one ACC team leaving, with uncertainties in the potential synergies of taking 2. And maybe 10% from the Big 12 as a whole. 5% from Missouri, and 2% from Vanderbilt. Let's 7% from a team in New York and/or New England other than UConn. And from my fellow alumnus, B1GOSU, let's say 1% for his staggeringly brilliant idea of taking 4 Internationally-acclaimed California schools into the Big Ten. He thinks big and bold, but I do not think that the distance and the weight of the mass of moving those four can be overcome. This is the sort of idea that an inventor or visionary thinks of, and only 200 years later is finally applied.

Well, I was not really trying to set odds, but rather to encourage the continuing flow of everyone's current good ideas.

 

[noeynox]

National? You must have been born since "75"...I was born in "51" and Oregon wasnt even regional until this century....I can't believe some peoples perception change so fast?? Before Brian Kelly NH's highflying offensive HC was hired NO ONE cared or knew(esp here in the NE) about them(and I lived in LA) and I lived on the west coast in the 70s in fact Im not sure but think they were as low as anyone can get in the P10(until recently)..money can buy a lot but not blueblood.... Heck Wisky is barely national and Barry Alvarez gave them national attention fairly recently to anyone over 45!! The Washington Huskies were way more national than woebegone!! A little flash on offense and uni's and a fad is born but certainly NOT a national brand like the Nike sponsor's!! Maybe 20 yrs from now if they can keep it going IMO. USC,UCLA maybe Stanford but not Oregon yet.

Does the name Mike Belloti ring a bell? You're underestimating how long Oregon has been good for. Even Rich Brooks before Belloti had a good run.

 

[ZooCougar]

National? You must have been born since "75"...I was born in "51" and Oregon wasnt even regional until this century....I can't believe some peoples perception change so fast?? Before Brian Kelly NH's highflying offensive HC was hired NO ONE cared or knew(esp here in the NE) about them(and I lived in LA) and I lived on the west coast in the 70s in fact Im not sure but think they were as low as anyone can get in the P10(until recently)..money can buy a lot but not blueblood.... Heck Wisky is barely national and Barry Alvarez gave them national attention fairly recently to anyone over 45!! The Washington Huskies were way more national than woebegone!! A little flash on offense and uni's and a fad is born but certainly NOT a national brand like the Nike sponsor's!! Maybe 20 yrs from now if they can keep it going IMO. USC,UCLA maybe Stanford but not Oregon yet.

I think you're a step behind unfortunately.

Oregon already had that offense before even Brian Kelly. Remember Akili Smith? Their previous coach had been growing that system for quite some time.

And yes it doesn't take long to get to national prominence when you win a lot and score at will. They are an exciting team to watch.