Conference Standings Breakdown at the 1/3rd pole

[OkaForPrez]

I'm off today so I spent some time looking at the conference records so far to try to make some sense out of the clump of teams at 4-2 and 3-2. There are some pretty surprising things in the limited information we have thus far. *Disclaimer* The rudimentary point system I applied to the records thus far has UConn scoring ahead of Syracuse. I did not design this system simply to benefit UConn's performance thus far, nor do I think that UConn is playing better basketball than Syracuse. This point system however rewards teams for good wins and avoiding bad losses.

Here is how I scored it:
Really good wins (road wins vs. top 4 teams in conference) +2
Good Wins (road wins vs. anyone but the bottom 4 in conference/Home wins vs. top 4) +1
Bad Losses (home losses vs. the mid 8 teams in the conference, road losses vs. bottom 4) -1
Really Bad Losses (home losses vs. the bottom 4 in conference) -2

Like I said, its rudimentary so at this stage the top 4 and bottom 4 might not be the true best and worst in the league (as is the justification for this in the first place).

However, some surprises in order of the current standings:
Syracuse: Other than the home win to Seton Hall, Cuse has really done what they are supposed to. They've won 3 on the road but all against conference dogs (two against PC). Given the opportunity clearly cuse would rank higher in this system, but the take away is the hardest part of their road is ahead of them.

Cincinnati: Only 1 Loss, but at home to the Johnnies could be a bad loss. You need to hold serve at home. Best win is on the road at Georgetown which negates the SJU loss on the road, but they might be back to net zero in terms of breaking away from the pack despite being so high in the current standings. The upcoming game against them is big.

UConn: Only team in conference with two road wins, none of which have come against the basement. Mostly just the fact we've had the opportunity, but all the same. We're doing what we need to do. The South Florida win is better than we thought it was.

Marquette: At 3-2, they've only beat 1 team in the top 12 and it was at home. I believe they are one of the better teams in conference but they have a harder road ahead.

South Florida: No Bad Losses. Great win against the Hall. Can they win on the road?

Louisville: Two home losses, and a road loss against a dog. They rate out the worst!

Rutgers: Despite 2-3 record, home win vs us helps. Only "Bad Loss" in this system is home to WVU.

Providence: Don't know what to make of the friars, in a way they are like the opposite of Syracuse. They are 1-5 and yet you can't say they should have won any of the games they lost. They've Lost to SHU and Cuse at home (many would), they won their only other home game and lost 3 road games to the top 12 in conference. Eye test says they are down where they belong, but they've had the hardest road so far.

This type of analysis will have greater meaning at the 2/3 pole. But fun to think about none the less.

 

[OkaForPrez]

 

[BrassBonanza]

some nice work there

 

[Peacefrog]

Of course it completely ignores the OOC schedule which provides a lot more data at this point.

 

[jordoo]

How can you have a grading system that doesn't count at least one point for a win and -1 point for a loss? Even if you are going to judge quality of wins, although its a bit early to determin that, you should have a baseline of +/- 1 for standard wins and losses. This is one of the worst grading systems I have seen. If you are one of the top 4 teams you automatically have less opertunity to score more points since that leaves only 3 good teams plus we have an unballanced schedule in the league which makes this type of grading inconsistant across the board even after all of the games are played.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Of course it completely ignores the OOC schedule which provides a lot more data at this point.

How can you have a grading system that doesn't count at least one point for a win and -1 point for a loss? Even if you are going to judge quality of wins, although its a bit early to determin that, you should have a baseline of +/- 1 for standard wins and losses. This is one of the worst grading systems I have seen. If you are one of the top 4 teams you automatically have less opertunity to score more points since that leaves only 3 good teams plus we have an unballanced schedule in the league which makes this type of grading inconsistant across the board even after all of the games are played.

Glean from it what you will. This is intended to sit next to OOC and Conference records, not replace them.

What I'm trying to portray here is that its very hard to win on the road in college basketball. As such, I want to see who has done it thus far and against what level of competition. I put very little salt in overall record because some teams may have feasted on cupcakes with extra frosting and the games are almost entirely at home.

If you are a quality team you should be defending your home court and hopefully winning more road games than you are losing them. I think its relevant to see who has dropped home games, who has won on the road, and against whom have they won.

By the way Jordoo, the outcome of the league in the regular season is schedule dependent depending on who your road games are against as well as who you draw twice. That's why the tourney is the more pure indicator IMO.

 

[jordoo]

Glean from it what you will. This is intended to sit next to OOC and Conference records, not replace them.

What I'm trying to portray here is that its very hard to win on the road in college basketball. As such, I want to see who has done it thus far and against what level of competition. I put very little salt in overall record because some teams may have feasted on cupcakes with extra frosting and the games are almost entirely at home.

If you are a quality team you should be defending your home court and hopefully winning more road games than you are losing them. I think its relevant to see who has dropped home games, who has won on the road, and against whom have they won.

By the way Jordoo, the outcome of the league in the regular season is schedule dependent depending on who your road games are against as well as who you draw twice. That's why the tourney is the more pure indicator IMO.

I understand what you are trying to do but what I'm saying is that you are giving zero possitive for some wins and zero negative for some losses. All should get something as a baseline then give more positive and more negative for the other things. Pitt should be punished for having 6 losses as Cuse should be rewarded for their six wins no matter were or who they are against. That would still give more weight to road and good wins but you would also have an over all baseline that corresponds with teams records to start off.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Okay, so net it to conference Wins:

TEAM Net to Ws
Syracuse 7
Connecticut 6
Seton Hall 5
Georgetown 5
West Virginia 5
Cincinnati 4
Notre Dame 4
South Florida 4
Marquette 3
Rutgers 2
St. John's 1
Providence 1
DePaul 0
Louisville -1
Villanova -1
Pittsburgh -2

 

[ctchamps]

Nice job. Thanks.

 

[jordoo]

Okay, so net it to conference Wins:

TEAM Net to Ws
Syracuse 7
Connecticut 6
Seton Hall 5
Georgetown 5
West Virginia 5
Cincinnati 4
Notre Dame 4
South Florida 4
Marquette 3
Rutgers 2
St. John's 1
Providence 1
DePaul 0
Louisville -1
Villanova -1
Pittsburgh -2

So you just added conference wins to the previous total? You should also subtract one for each loss.

 

[DogMania]

I applaud the effort and it will be very interesting to see if your list comes close to the order for which they'll fall at the end of the season. There's a lot to say about success versus SOS, taking the Road impact into account. But nothing beats the eye test IMO.

Before the BE season began I thought SU and UConn would battle it out at the top w/ Pitt & UL having some say in all this. But at the 1/3rd Pole as you put it using the eye test and W-L results here's my 2 cents:

I've not seen all the teams play, but SU has been hand's down the scariest of the bunch.

I'm surprised by UL's dramatic decline, even with the injuries they've suffered this season. They still have the potential to be a tough out, but right now they seem to be reeling.

I'm even more shocked at how bad Pitt has been playing. Didn't expect that.

Before UConn's mini-swoon, I thought we'd be right there with SU atop the Big East. I like how they've played the past two games, but still think there are more bumps in the road before they put it all together. I simply can't tell if they're in the midst of a nice winning streak or just a mini-peak with some dips and peaks to follow.

My completely unscientific assessment is SU will take the BE regular season title, with UConn battling a half dozen teams (SH, Marq, WV, Cinci, ND and maybe UL getting back into this mix) that will settle all bunched together just behind SU.

I was surprised by the Hall's hiccup the other day after seeing how well they've played to this point. I still think they'll be in the mix for the upper portion of the BE. Not a lot of size, but they have a few very talented players and solid core of role players.

After this group USF and RU will surprisingly finish higher than expected. I think both teams will hold serve on their home courts better than expected. How well they do on the road will determine their fate, which I think will slot them right smack in the middle of the BE standings come season's end.

The rest will woefully lag behind with Johnny's, Friars, Blue Demons slugging it out with the surprisingly bad Wildcats and Pirates for BE bottom dweller honors.

I still find it surprising that Nova and Pitt are playing as bad as they are right now. Based on their track record, I would not be completely shocked if they finish in the upper half, but based on how they've looked all season long, I just don't see how they'll accomplish that. Right now they're flat out bad teams.

Of those project bottom dwellers, PC is the team that I think will rise above that pack and might battle USF and RU for that middle tier.

I think many of us knew the BE would not be as strong as last season, but I didn't expect the bottom to be quite as bad as it looks now. But with that said, I think the entire D1 field is the weakest I've seen in years and I thought last year was lacking compared to what we've been seeing. As much as I didn't expect UConn to be cutting down the nets, I did think (and even stated such before our crazy 11 game run) that it was a year that a talented but young team like UConn could stand atop the D1 heap and I think that will be the case again. Other than SU, which is very deep, very talented and plays that crazy zone that's tough to figure out, none of the teams in the top 25 give me much confidence that they clearly could win 6 in a row to win the NC. Obviously someone will do it and they will likely come from the top 25, but maybe a Butler or VCU type team will finally shock the world.

 

[OkaForPrez]

If you subtract the losses as well, there are but a few differences to pure conf record of note:

UConn's 4 wins are stronger than the pack at there given two are on the road.

Marquette's 3 wins are slightly less impressive than ND or USF in that they are all at home and against the dregs of the league.

Rutgers at 2 wins is in a stronger position than the Johnnies or Lousiville. And Nova, despite its 1 win is in a class below Providence and Depaul.

 

[Peacefrog]

It's all so hard to say right now. We won't know for a while yet exactly who the contenders and pretenders are. What is ND doesn't win another game for instance. We are calling that a quality win at the moment but in retrospect we might think differently. The same for USF. At 3-2 in conference that looks like a solid road win. Time will tell. Will Pitt really end up being a bottom dweller? With each loss I am more convinced
........... We'll see.

 

[bobbygt]

I think the only thing we know right now is that Cuse is going to take the regular season title.

I'm completely clueless right now about UL-I've watched them a few times and despite their record, I still think they are top 5 in the big east. I still can't figure out how they are 2-4.

I agree with Dogmania in that uconn will be battling for 2nd place with about 6 teams: Marq, Cincy, WVU, UL, Seton Hall, and Gtown (I assume you forgot them).

I don't think ND nor USF are very good, and expect them, along with RU, SJU, Prov, Depaul, Nova, Pitt to be .500 or below, basically just beating up on each other.

 

[gibhunter]

We don't know that SU will take the regular season title. We have two losses and play them twice. If we run the table we take the reqular season title.

 

[jordoo]

If you subtract the losses as well, there are but a few differences to pure conf record of note:

UConn's 4 wins are stronger than the pack at there given two are on the road.

Marquette's 3 wins are slightly less impressive than ND or USF in that they are all at home and against the dregs of the league.

Rutgers at 2 wins is in a stronger position than the Johnnies or Lousiville. And Nova, despite its 1 win is in a class below Providence and Depaul.


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I think its a better representation. Man with a win or loss a lot of teams can slip into or out of that upper group. I agree with those saying that that group just behind Uconn will be muddled all season but I think Uconn holds them off and finishes second. If SU slips up a bit and with two late games against Uconn it could be the BE is not decided until very late. I don't expect to go undefeated thats just unrealistic, gona have 2-3 losses one way or another IMO.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Now add what happened yesterday. Every home team won. Cuse and Pitt solidified their positions at the top and bottom. Rutgers showed me there is very little difference in the middle of the pack. Marquette looked to solidify a spot in the upper third and Louisville again dissapoints.

I don't think you can pick a top 4. It isn't clear to me how big the group is after Syracuse. At the moment, the league records more or less reflect the overall records, with Louisville the biggest exception.

Cuse, UConn, G-Town, Cincy, Marquette, WVU and Hall seem pretty solid. Likely NCAA teams right now. USF, ND, Rutgers and Louisville could make a run, but look like NIT teams. The rest are done.

Looking at the CBS RPI, we see much the same. A huge drop off after WVU at 18 to Louisville at 47. The outlier, Cincy isn't even in the top 68. Surprising, as they beat OU by 1, beat Georgetown on the road and ND at home. Lots of cupcakes though.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/rpi/index1