Conference Realignment Post Mortem Thread

[Bongo Fury]

We didn’t get in the Big 12 because the Pac12 dissolved and the schools wanted Arizona, ASU and Utah. We didn’t get played.

And there are some FB rivalries in that group.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

And there are some FB rivalries in that group.

Which no one gives a spit about. I bet fans are knocking each other over to watch mediocre WVU, Cincinnati, ASU and Texas Tech teams play each other. Not.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You are confusing outcome with the process and dynamics. They were hedging us precisely to allow for that possibility to arise knowing if Colorado jumped there was a possibility the other corners would follow. Otherwise we would have went with Colorado. We got strung out and played big time.

I will say that it says a lot about this board that it ever believed the insane theory that Colorado would leave and the rest of the Pac 12 would stay together and UConn would be invited to join the Big 12. That is probably the stupidest theory that an entire Board has ever fallen for in the history of realignment.

It was seriously idiotic.

 

[zls44]

We have heard from PAC 12 school saying that they show up at the PAC 12 meeting, that GOR was going to be signed. It was that close.

Washington State and Oregon State are saying that to save face. There was never going to be a Pac-12 GOR signed. Never. Never.

The Pac-12 was DOA the day USC and UCLA left. There was zero chance they’d make it.

 

[hank970]

Which no one gives a spit about. I bet fans are knocking each other over to watch mediocre WVU, Cincinnati, ASU and Texas Tech teams play each other. Not.

Correction: Which you don't give a spit about. You're entitled to your opinion(s), of course, but the fact remains that more people are watching those WVU, Cincinnati, ASU, and Texas Tech matchups, either remotely or in person, than are knocking themselves out or even accidentally tuning-in to watch any games involving UConn football. Such distinctions are what motivate media and conference moguls to determine a school's fate.

 

[uconnric]

I will say that it says a lot about this board that it ever believed the insane theory that Colorado would leave and the rest of the Pac 12 would stay together and UConn would be invited to join the Big 12. That is probably the stupidest theory that an entire Board has ever fallen for in the history of realignment.

It was seriously idiotic.

That’s a ridiculous take. Now you’re telling us you knew how this would work out after the fact. Maybe you should be a fortune teller.

 

[Hoophound]

That’s a ridiculous take. Now you’re telling us you knew how this would work out after the fact. Maybe you should be a fortune teller.

He did actually call that. He said it was hard to believe the PAC schools would just let Colorado leave and standby in the P12 to die. Nelson never bought that.

I thought we’d likely get in with Colorado and then the B12 would end up adding 4-6 PAC schools in due time.

 

[giddyup]

He did actually call that. He said it was hard to believe the PAC schools would just let Colorado leave and standby in the P12 to die. Nelson never bought that.

I thought we’d likely get in with Colorado and then the B12 would end up adding 4-6 PAC schools in due time.

Bingo. Once Colorado announced and we didn’t, it was pretty obvious we got suckered and were the last option only if time didn’t do its job on the other 3 corners.

 

[ZooCougar]

That’s a ridiculous take. Now you’re telling us you knew how this would work out after the fact. Maybe you should be a fortune teller.

It’s actually the most sense he has made in a very long time. If you expected the PAC 12 to stay together then you were not in touch with reality.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That’s a ridiculous take. Now you’re telling us you knew how this would work out after the fact. Maybe you should be a fortune teller.

There are about 20 posts on this board of me saying that the "just one school leaves the Pac 12" theory was insane while it was happening. Feel free to find a post where I said otherwise. I thought from the start that UConn had to be the only addition to the Big 12, or it wasn't going to happen for us.

I also predicted back in April or May that the Pac 12 would get a decent contract from Apple. I got that right.

I also predicted (copied in the Streaming thread on this board) that NIL and the Transfer Portal would have a HUGE impact on college sports, and within 6 months TCU plays for the CFP Championship and SDSU and Florida Atlantic made the Final Four.

I am not a fortune teller and I do not have any inside information. I know the tech world a little and I went to most of my Strategic Management classes at UConn and grad school, so I was able to put some things together.

 

[uconnyankee]

I will say that it says a lot about this board that it ever believed the insane theory that Colorado would leave and the rest of the Pac 12 would stay together and UConn would be invited to join the Big 12. That is probably the stupidest theory that an entire Board has ever fallen for in the history of realignment.

It was seriously idiotic.

As they say, hindsight is 20/20.

Had Big not come for Oregon/Washington, it wasn’t so far fetched.

I think the PAC was ready to move forward without Colorado.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It’s actually the most sense he has made in a very long time. If you expected the PAC 12 to stay together then you were not in touch with reality.

My prediction was a little different. I didn't think just one team would leave the Pac 12. It was either going to come apart, or stick together.

It was a sequential game, and I didn't know how much money ESPN was willing to spend. It turned out to be a lot, which will bite them in the butt in the long-term but nuked the Pac 12, UConn, and possibly all of college football, in the short-term.

 

[uconnric]

There are about 20 posts on this board of me saying that the "just one school leaves the Pac 12" theory was insane while it was happening. Feel free to find a post where I said otherwise. I thought from the start that UConn had to be the only addition to the Big 12, or it wasn't going to happen for us.

I also predicted back in April or May that the Pac 12 would get a decent contract from Apple. I got that right.

I also predicted (copied in the Streaming thread on this board) that NIL and the Transfer Portal would have a HUGE impact on college sports, and within 6 months TCU plays for the CFP Championship and SDSU and Florida Atlantic made the Final Four.

I am not a fortune teller and I do not have any inside information. I know the tech world a little and I went to most of my Strategic Management classes at UConn and grad school, so I was able to put some things together.

Sorry, but the Pac12 didn't really blow up until the new media deal was released and Washington and Oregon left. You could say that it started to crumble when UCLA and USC jumped ship, but there were still schools trying to hold it together until the end. The media deal killed off that chance.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Sorry, but the Pac12 didn't really blow up until the new media deal was released and Washington and Oregon left. You could say that it started to crumble when UCLA and USC jumped ship, but there were still schools trying to hold it together until the end. The media deal killed off that chance.

The media deal did not kill off the Pac 12. The Pac 12 got a decent deal from Apple, which is why Fox and ESPN went in for the kill. Much like with the Big East 12 years ago, Fox and ESPN could have gotten the Pac 12 as a single conference for less than they ended up paying to break it up.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Here is a wild prediction. I think ESPN will go back to one or more of the conferences it currently has to try to renegotiate its contracts with them at some point. ESPN's current deals are not sustainable without bundled cable revenue, which is already ending.

 

[billybud]

The Big Ten gutted the PAC....the Big 12 just scavenged the carcass.

The failure of the PAC to secure a reliable media deal for the remainder resulted in the final exodus.

 

[billybud]

Here is a wild prediction. I think ESPN will go back to one or more of the conferences it currently has to try to renegotiate its contracts with them at some point. ESPN's current deals are not sustainable without bundled cable revenue, which is already ending.

ESPN's big money is in the SEC contract....and the SEC isn't likely to renegotiate down.....the ACC contract is already low enough for ESPN to make money.

And, wouldn't some ACC programs love to have that ESPN contract reopened ?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big Ten gutted the PAC....the Big 12 just scavenged the carcass.

The failure of the PAC to secure a reliable media deal for the remainder resulted in the final exodus.

Making the same wrong statement over and over does not make it right.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

ESPN's big money is in the SEC contract....

True, but they are all bad deals. I see Iger's desire to lock in content before he tries to sell ESPN, but those deals are kind of poison pills for anyone looking to buy ESPN.

 

[Bongo Fury]

The media deal did not kill off the Pac 12. The Pac 12 got a decent deal from Apple, which is why Fox and ESPN went in for the kill. Much like with the Big East 12 years ago, Fox and ESPN could have gotten the Pac 12 as a single conference for less than they ended up paying to break it up.

They got the same deal as the Big 12 but the presidents didn’t think it was good enough. Wanted a deal like The BIG and SEC. Told George K to get high 50s and the networks said no thanks.

 

[ZooCougar]

Sorry, but the Pac12 didn't really blow up until the new media deal was released and Washington and Oregon left. You could say that it started to crumble when UCLA and USC jumped ship, but there were still schools trying to hold it together until the end. The media deal killed off that chance.

They knew the deal would be a joke. They just waited to see how bad it was.

The PAC 12 was a dead man walking for months. You had to be blind not to see.

 

[UConnJim]

Washington State and Oregon State are saying that to save face. There was never going to be a Pac-12 GOR signed. Never. Never.

The Pac-12 was DOA the day USC and UCLA left. There was zero chance they’d make it.

I think the Pac 12 should have reacted and expanded when USC and UCLA announced they were leaving. They could have grabbed Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech and San Diego State maybe Houston.

In my view, the end of the Pac 12 was when the Big 12 got a media deal before the Pac 12 and took away most of the viable expansion candidates. Does anyone really think SMU was a viable Pac 12 candidate that would help hold the Pac 12 together?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They knew the deal would be a joke. They just waited to see how bad it was.

The PAC 12 was a dead man walking for months. You had to be blind not to see.

If it was so obvious, why did the networks pay so much to tear the league apart? Why not just pay the schools like they were scrap metal?

 

[ZooCougar]

If it was so obvious, why did the networks pay so much to tear the league apart? Why not just pay the schools like they were scrap metal?

Because when UCLA and USC left the PAC 12 became a parts store.

 

[hank970]

I think the Pac 12 should have reacted and expanded when USC and UCLA announced they were leaving. They could have grabbed Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and San Diego State maybe Houston.

In my view, the end of the Pac 12 was when the Big 12 got a media deal before the Pac 12 and took away most of the viable expansion candidates. Does anyone really think SMU was a viable Pac 12 candidate that would help hold the Pac 12 together?

I doubt it. What possible incentive could a crippled PAC have offered those schools, an opportunity to play a bunch of games in front of dwindling, late-day audiences?

 

[UConnJim]

I doubt it. What possible incentive could a crippled PAC have offered those schools, an opportunity to play a bunch of games in front of dwindling, late-day audiences?

The Big 12 (after Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving) reached out to the Pac 12 in 2021 and proposed a merger. The Pac 12 turned them down. One year later, USC and UCLA left. Talks were started again and this time the Big 12 decided not to do it. When the Big 12 signed a media contract before the Pac 12, all the power shifted to the Big 12 and the Big 12 grabbed 4 Pac 12 schools.