Commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting

[HooperScooper]

Interesting article if you follow recruiting, from Matt Norlander of CBS Sports. Talks about how recruiting is in a stalemate right now because of the change to revenue sharing from the NIL system. Most schools don't even know what their budgets are so they're either lying to the recruits or offering them packages that are less than some other schools. Lots of interesting quotes from coaches.

"This is about who can sign players that can guarantee money, and as you look deeper, if you can't guarantee money to incoming guys, how can you guarantee it to your returnees?" one source in the Midwest said. "Things are going to start shifting quick. The power schools, usually when they get frustrated, action follows. Will we see the collectives run wild? Nobody knows what to do right now."

Shy of the coach convincing himself to fork over more than 25% of his budget on a player with zero college experience, he's probably going to lose out on what might be his top high school target. The agent will find $1 million plus because he believes the market will exist, even if it's not there right now.

"There's a level of education that we've been trying to do with agents," one Big Ten coach said. "You have some that understand and some that refuse to hear it. Three-fourths don't get it or they think you're lying to them."

College basketball commitments plummet amid big changes in recruiting: 'Nobody knows what to do right now'

With only six of the top 50 Class of 2026 prospects committed to a school, coaches and agents are in a recruiting stalemate

www.cbssports.com

 

[DogMania]

That all makes sense. This time last year it seemed we were hearing about all sorts of dollars being thrown around and I think a lot more commitments or at least strong predictions. Recruiting seems more of a feeling things out kind of exercise, where coaches are starting to zero in on recruits and recruits with programs, but few are pressing for quick decisions. Maybe it's more perception than reality on my part.

 

[uchusky32]

This is going to lead to less freshmen going to top programs. If I’m a coach I would prefer to give money to the proven, transfer, over the unproven. Top players will get theirs. The rest will might get theirs at lower programs that they will transfer from the next year. As we have been told don’t look for a big freshman class coming in anymore.

 

[Jaydumo20]

This is going to lead to less freshmen going to top programs. If I’m a coach I would prefer to give money to the proven, transfer, over the unproven. Top players will get theirs. The rest will might get theirs at lower programs that they will transfer from the next year. As we have been told don’t look for a big freshman class coming in anymore.

Youre right. And id like to take this time to voice how much that sucks. It's not just nostalgia. Freshmen classes were one of the most exciting and rewarding things about college basketball: following classes of kids who stay for 2-4 years , and maybe win a natty, is the greatest experience for fans of a program.

 

[HW611]

Youre right. And id like to take this time to voice how much that sucks. It's not just nostalgia. Freshmen classes were one of the most exciting and rewarding things about college basketball: following classes of kids who stay for 2-4 years , and maybe win a natty, is the greatest experience for fans of a program.

In regards to the overall ecosystem of American basketball, it sucks as well.

College basketball was suppose to be one of the best developmental places in the world. Now kids can hardly rely on a coach to invest in properly developing them.

Now there’s a trend of even bringing in European players on top of not recruiting guys out of high school to bring in transfers (who most likely don’t have the NBA future these HS recruits can have).

Not to mention how crazy it is during the time players can make good money for their talents it’s moving in this direction of less opportunities for American HS basketball players. It’s all around bad.

 

[jibsey]

Maybe top players will make their decisions quicker now? Get a commitment and salary locked down because end of season is a transfer rush ?

 

[HW611]

Maybe top players will make their decisions quicker now? Get a commitment and salary locked down because end of season is a transfer rush ?

Won’t stop them from ending up like Darius Adams still.

 

[RuffRuff]

Youre right. And id like to take this time to voice how much that sucks. It's not just nostalgia. Freshmen classes were one of the most exciting and rewarding things about college basketball: following classes of kids who stay for 2-4 years , and maybe win a natty, is the greatest experience for fans of a program.

But back then once you locked into a program, you were stuck. Now a kid has flexibility to go somewhere he can play instantly, and transfer up if he develops. This has been talked about, Navery has mentioned this many times. They need a consistent system is what they need right now, not something that changes annually and coaches/players are left guessing how to operate. That part has to be exhausting.

 

[HW611]

But back then once you locked into a program, you were stuck. Now a kid has flexibility to go somewhere he can play instantly, and transfer up if he develops. This has been talked about, Navery has mentioned this many times. They need a consistent system is what they need right now, not something that changes annually and coaches/players are left guessing how to operate. That part has to be exhausting.

If you are good there’s no reason to transfer up. Transferring up doesn’t actually help guys with real NBA futures. This has already been discussed and proven.

 

[HW611]

But back then once you locked into a program, you were stuck. Now a kid has flexibility to go somewhere he can play instantly, and transfer up if he develops. This has been talked about, Navery has mentioned this many times. They need a consistent system is what they need right now, not something that changes annually and coaches/players are left guessing how to operate. That part has to be exhausting.

List of prominent players from mid majors.

Dame Lillard Weber State 6th pick (never played in NCAA tournament and was hurt his junior year)
Steph Curry 7th pick Davidson
Kawhi Leonard 15th pick San Diego State
Jalen Williams 12th pick Santa Clara

Jalen Williams just won a championship coming from the same conference Joey C and Aiden Mahaney transferred from.

There maybe more but this was the very easy list off the top of my head. This whole players have to transfer up to better their careers and futures is the biggest crock of crap. Who is the guy who transferred up and became a legit star and lottery pick because of it at the next level?

 

[Scrutineer]

List of prominent players from mid majors.

Dame Lillard Weber State 6th pick (never played in NCAA tournament and was hurt his junior year)
Steph Curry 7th pick Davidson
Kawhi Leonard 15th pick San Diego State
Jalen Williams 12th pick Santa Clara

Jalen Williams just won a championship coming from the same conference Joey C and Aiden Mahaney transferred from.

There maybe more but this was the very easy list off the top of my head. This whole players have to transfer up to better their careers and futures is the biggest crock of crap. Who is the guy who transferred up and became a legit star and lottery pick because of it at the next level?

Then there's Ja Morant. Unranked in high school and #2 overall pick in the draft after two years at Murray St.

 

[HW611]

Then there's Ja Morant. Unranked in high school and #2 overall pick in the draft after two years at Murray St.

Literally the biggest stars in the league have came from mid majors. I don’t know of one guy who even became an All Star who transferred up.

But somehow this is suppose to be better for players.

 

[RuffRuff]

List of prominent players from mid majors.

Dame Lillard Weber State 6th pick (never played in NCAA tournament and was hurt his junior year)
Steph Curry 7th pick Davidson
Kawhi Leonard 15th pick San Diego State
Jalen Williams 12th pick Santa Clara

Jalen Williams just won a championship coming from the same conference Joey C and Aiden Mahaney transferred from.

There maybe more but this was the very easy list off the top of my head. This whole players have to transfer up to better their careers and futures is the biggest crock of crap. Who is the guy who transferred up and became a legit star and lottery pick because of it at the next level?

And? Those guys wee generally afterthoughts at the collegiate level. How much better would have it been had we seen them perform regularly, be on the national stage and fighting for titles while in college?

 

[Jaydumo20]

And? Those guys wee generally afterthoughts at the collegiate level. How much better would have it been had we seen them perform regularly, be on the national stage and fighting for titles while in college?

It wouldn't be better for the fans of those "lesser" programs. And tbh, for me it was more fun to see Ja and Dame and CJ Mcollum play at mid majors. That Lehigh win over duke wouldnt have been memorable if he were on UK or something. Watching Clayton was cool this year but it was Florida and that made it more mundane in context.

As a fan I dont root for arbitrary player success. I think the "business is business" mantra that some people live by ignores a whole ton of factors. For most college fans, NIL and transfer has watered down their experience. And that is something

 

[HW611]

And? Those guys wee generally afterthoughts at the collegiate level. How much better would have it been had we seen them perform regularly, be on the national stage and fighting for titles while in college?

Steph Curry went further at Davidson than Seth did at Duke.

Kawhi made it to a sweet 16 before we KO’d him.

The logic of “hey they’ll be able to be seen more” is a farce too. Jimmer became a household name at BYU. Bigger than any of these transfer ups during this era.

Ja was talked about all year at Moorehead St. He was talked about more there than Dalton Knecht in 24 or Walter Clayton in 25.

 

[auror]

Literally the biggest stars in the league have came from mid majors. I don’t know of one guy who even became an All Star who transferred up.

But somehow this is suppose to be better for players.

It's been like 3 years of the transfer portal. Your argument is not in good faith.

 

[HW611]

It's been like 3 years of the transfer portal. Your argument is not in good faith.

True, but I checked and haven’t seen any lottery picks during this time either. The biggest “winner” talked about on this board was Knecht and he’s been struggling on the Lakers.

If the thought is there needs to be more time for a transfer up star to succeed then we should probably hold off on declarations that this is better for them until a real star is actually made from it.

 

[navery12]

True, but I checked and haven’t seen any lottery picks during this time either. The biggest “winner” talked about on this board was Knecht and he’s been struggling on the Lakers.

If the thought is there needs to be more time for a transfer up star to succeed then we should probably hold off on declarations that this is better for them until a real star is actually made from it.

The portal era has just started. You may end up being right but we have no evidence in either direction right now. The guys that did transfer up and got drafted haven't even had a chance to develop in the NBA yet so we have no idea if they'll become stars

 

[RuffRuff]

It wouldn't be better for the fans of those "lesser" programs. And tbh, for me it was more fun to see Ja and Dame and CJ Mcollum play at mid majors. That Lehigh win over duke wouldnt have been memorable if he were on UK or something. Watching Clayton was cool this year but it was Florida and that made it more mundane in context.

As a fan I dont root for arbitrary player success. I think the "business is business" mantra that some people live by ignores a whole ton of factors. For most college fans, NIL and transfer has watered down their experience. And that is something

There is a whole offseason now where top coaches go show what they’re going to do in the portal to create a new winning roster, and people talking about it. There is the anticipation of how a team will come together. I’d rather have seen all those greats have a chance to actually win a title, play in last weekend. Mid majors are dead as it comes to having a chance and this the new reality, might as well accept it and evolve as a fan (although I know it’s impossible for many here).

There is plenty of reason to transfer up - you’ll definitely get better coaching, you’ll get NIL and you’ll get a chance to win a NC. That’s a lot. Of course if a kid is that talented he’ll find a way to the NBA, but why not make the most of your college experience.

 

[navery12]

It wouldn't be better for the fans of those "lesser" programs. And tbh, for me it was more fun to see Ja and Dame and CJ Mcollum play at mid majors. That Lehigh win over duke wouldnt have been memorable if he were on UK or something. Watching Clayton was cool this year but it was Florida and that made it more mundane in context.

As a fan I dont root for arbitrary player success. I think the "business is business" mantra that some people live by ignores a whole ton of factors. For most college fans, NIL and transfer has watered down their experience. And that is something

But what you're missing is the transfers that happen the opposite direction. For every school that you talk about losing a star player to a transfer up, there's a McNeese State that just went on a 58-11 2 year run directly off an 11 win season. And it was fueled by transfers from TCU, BC, Ole Miss/Florida, Cincy/Utah the first year and St Louis, Cuse, LSU/Georgetown/Ole Miss, Arizona St, Providence the second year

 

[AntG168]

I don't think this is all that consequential for the top guys. Even if they commit and then decommit in the spring a la Darius Adams they'll still end up at a high major. With possibly a bigger bag due to demand.

 

[HW611]

The portal era has just started. You may end up being right but we have no evidence in either direction right now. The guys that did transfer up and got drafted haven't even had a chance to develop in the NBA yet so we have no idea if they'll become stars

Well one thing for sure is that mid major stars didn’t need saving or to play on a big stage to further their careers. They were doing just fine where they were at.

None of these transfer up stars will ever be as well remembered as the mid major stars from these days. Even the ones without NBA success (Jimmer)

 

[auror]

Well one thing for sure is that mid major stars didn’t need saving or to play on a big stage to further their careers. They were doing just fine where they were at.

None of these transfer up stars will ever be as well remembered as the mid major stars from these days. Even the ones without NBA success (Jimmer)

You don't think Cam Spencer will be remembered more for being on UConn than if he became a star on Loyola Maryland?

 

[navery12]

Well one thing for sure is that mid major stars didn’t need saving or to play on a big stage to further their careers. They were doing just fine where they were at.

None of these transfer up stars will ever be as well remembered as the mid major stars from these days. Even the ones without NBA success (Jimmer)

But outside of the fans who just want to live in the past I'm not sure who cares about that. You're focusing on stars and claiming they're not benefitting from it, and ignoring the 99.9% of other players who aren't stars and are very clearly benefiting from it

 

[Jaydumo20]

But what you're missing is the transfers that happen the opposite direction. For every school that you talk about losing a star player to a transfer up, there's a McNeese State that just went on a 58-11 2 year run directly off an 11 win season. And it was fueled by transfers from TCU, BC, Ole Miss/Florida, Cincy/Utah the first year and St Louis, Cuse, LSU/Georgetown/Ole Miss, Arizona St, Providence the second year

Understood. And that is true. But it is a matter of preference from a fan standpoint. Getting to know a team and growing with them is a joy for a lot of people.
What you, @RuffRuff and I do agree on is that we at least need a structure.