OT: College in the COVID era

[upstater]

Article in USA Today with an analysis from economists at FRB New York saying taking a gap year can mean up to a $90k loss of earnings over a life time.

Delaying college in the pandemic could cost you: Study says students could lose $90,000 over their lifetime

Many students are considering a gap year, worried about the cost and quality of online instruction. But economists say that isn't a great idea.

www.usatoday.com

I don't have the time for this study.

I would only remark though that the future is so variable that I personally would not advise my children to plan on it in this way.

Students who have taken a gap year (or more) have often been more mature and better students in my classes.

I also come from a generation (graduated college in '90) that wasn't so anxious about immediately securing a career when I graduated. I did get a corporate job right away during a recession but I hated it and left it for other work within 9 months. I started teaching in a college classroom in '92 as a TA and as soon as the dot.com thing started roaring, my undergrads would write to me about the $60k jobs they were landing out of undergrad. Some were getting $15k bonuses to move to new companies in their first years out. By comparison, my job at one of the top 5 advertising firms in NYC had a salary of $20k. Friends from college who were locked into other careers (lawyers, small business start-ups, communication, etc.) were not doing nearly as well as the students 5 years younger than me.

I only relate this to show that looking for a job during a recession and staying there is likely more harmful to long term earnings than landing one during the good times and being flexible.

From what I've seen and know, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend a gap year.

 

[8893]

I don't have the time for this study.

I would only remark though that the future is so variable that I personally would not advise my children to plan on it in this way.

Students who have taken a gap year (or more) have often been more mature and better students in my classes.

I also come from a generation (graduated college in '90) that wasn't so anxious about immediately securing a career when I graduated. I did get a corporate job right away during a recession but I hated it and left it for other work within 9 months. I started teaching in a college classroom in '92 as a TA and as soon as the dot.com thing started roaring, my undergrads would write to me about the $60k jobs they were landing out of undergrad. Some were getting $15k bonuses to move to new companies in their first years out. By comparison, my job at one of the top 5 advertising firms in NYC had a salary of $20k. Friends from college who were locked into other careers (lawyers, small business start-ups, communication, etc.) were not doing nearly as well as the students 5 years younger than me.

I only relate this to show that looking for a job during a recession and staying there is likely more harmful to long term earnings than landing one during the good times and being flexible.

From what I've seen and know, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend a gap year.

Before the pandemic I think it was easier for kids and families to choose whether going straight to college or taking a gap year was a better plan for a particular student and set of circumstances, in that it was a clearer choice in most instances.

Right now I would say it's more like a 55/45 type of decision for each student. In other words, I don't think it is going to make much difference at the end of the day.

 

[Chin Diesel]

I don't have the time for this study.

I would only remark though that the future is so variable that I personally would not advise my children to plan on it in this way.

Students who have taken a gap year (or more) have often been more mature and better students in my classes.

I also come from a generation (graduated college in '90) that wasn't so anxious about immediately securing a career when I graduated. I did get a corporate job right away during a recession but I hated it and left it for other work within 9 months. I started teaching in a college classroom in '92 as a TA and as soon as the dot.com thing started roaring, my undergrads would write to me about the $60k jobs they were landing out of undergrad. Some were getting $15k bonuses to move to new companies in their first years out. By comparison, my job at one of the top 5 advertising firms in NYC had a salary of $20k. Friends from college who were locked into other careers (lawyers, small business start-ups, communication, etc.) were not doing nearly as well as the students 5 years younger than me.

I only relate this to show that looking for a job during a recession and staying there is likely more harmful to long term earnings than landing one during the good times and being flexible.

From what I've seen and know, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend a gap year.

Before the pandemic I think it was easier for kids and families to choose whether going straight to college or taking a gap year was a better plan for a particular student and set of circumstances, in that it was a clearer choice in most instances.

Right now I would say it's more like a 55/45 type of decision for each student. In other words, I don't think it is going to make much difference at the end of the day.

I would use information in that story as a starting point for a conversation with young kids on how to map our their future careers. Not as an absolute. I don't think any of us can figure out what 10 years from now will look like, never mind trying to figure out 40-50 years of income. It's a spinoff of showing how earning money early and compounding it is advantageous or how having a higher starting value can lead to continual higher salaries throughout a lifetime.

 

[8893]

I would use information in that story as a starting point for a conversation with young kids on how to map our their future careers. Not as an absolute. I don't think any of us can figure out what 10 years from now will look like, never mind trying to figure out 40-50 years of income. It's a spinoff of showing how earning money early and compounding it is advantageous or how having a higher starting value can lead to continual higher salaries throughout a lifetime.

Kind of like an elite college basketball player's decision about whether and when to leave college early for the NBA. You can ostensibly start making money earlier the sooner you leave; but if waiting can place you in the higher starting salary bracket, you will likely be better off when you get that second contract.

 

[auror]

$90k over a lifetime with inflation for a current 22 year old sounds like a lot but is basically nothing.

 

[upstater]

$90k over a lifetime with inflation for a current 22 year old sounds like a lot but is basically nothing.

You do realize that the vast majority of our college graduates will do worse than that?

 

[auror]

You do realize that the vast majority of our college graduates will do worse than that?

Not sure what you're saying. But the 90k includes more than just 1 year salary (delayed promotions, etc.). Either way I think we agree?

 

[Chin Diesel]

$90k over a lifetime with inflation for a current 22 year old sounds like a lot but is basically nothing.

You do realize that the vast majority of our college graduates will do worse than that?

Not sure what you're saying. But the 90k includes more than just 1 year salary (delayed promotions, etc.). Either way I think we agree?

Yep. The article is saying over a career of working there can be up to $90k difference in total earnings.

Which, shouldn't be much of a difference over a 40-45 year working lifespan. Also, those differences can be made up real quickly if the late starter leverages their time off correctly for maturity and perspective.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

assume 40yr career...that's $2,250 unearned/year...or $187/month

not exactly a life-altering loss. That's basically the difference between me paying for cable or not

There's that evil fake math, statistics, coming to deceive again.

 

[auror]

assume 40yr career...that's $2,250 unearned/year...or $187/month

not exactly a life-altering loss. That's basically the difference between me paying for cable or not

There's that evil fake math, statistics, coming to deceive again.

It's not even that, because I believe the $90k figure is in ~2060 dollars, so it's closer to $60 a month relative to now.

 

[Improviser]

Kind of like an elite college basketball player's decision about whether and when to leave college early for the NBA. You can ostensibly start making money earlier the sooner you leave; but if waiting can place you in the higher starting salary bracket, you will likely be better off when you get that second contract.

Interesting points.

Sometimes, leaving early like Deandre Daniels and maybe Daniel Hamilton, did not work out so well. With another year playing, they would have honed their skills and possibly have been drafted higher.

On the other hand, players like Grayson Allen should have left earlier and would have gotten drafted higher and made more money. A few others are harder to figure, like Robert Swift, a center who was drafted reasonably high but was basically a flop in the pro's. Would playing longer in college, have made a difference? Who knows?

Before the early entries, from a spectator's point of view, it was nice to see the upward trajectory of players from their freshman or sophomore years until graduation as seniors.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

It's not even that, because I believe the $90k figure is in ~2060 dollars, so it's closer to $60 a month relative to now.

So I get to keep cable!

 

[White Dwarf]

And so it begins. Covid clusters at UNC Chapel Hill dorms

UNC Chapel Hill reports 2 COVID-19 clusters in student housing

Two clusters of COVID-19 cases have been reported at student housing facilities at UNC-Chapel Hill, the school announced Friday.

www.wect.com

 

[upstater]

Not sure what you're saying. But the 90k includes more than just 1 year salary (delayed promotions, etc.). Either way I think we agree?

My fault. Sorry. I thought they were looking at lifetime average salary with inflation.

 

[upstater]

And so it begins. Covid clusters at UNC Chapel Hill dorms

UNC Chapel Hill reports 2 COVID-19 clusters in student housing

Two clusters of COVID-19 cases have been reported at student housing facilities at UNC-Chapel Hill, the school announced Friday.

www.wect.com

1,666 test, 149 positives.

9% positive test rate which makes the campus hot like Mississippi.

This is what the modelers were saying. It will spread like wildfire.

 

[Improviser]

It's not even that, because I believe the $90k figure is in ~2060 dollars, so it's closer to $60 a month relative to now.

I am not sure what article is being referred to, but often the comparison of lifetime earnings for a high school graduate vs. those of a college graduate does not reflect the whole picture.

For example, many high school graduates do continue their education in 2 year community college settings, and then get trained for the jobs they take for their lifetime. I would like to see if there is a study of the difference between CC grads and college grads.

I think to get a complete picture, that would be helpful to know.

And, it would make sense that for specialized fields like accounting, engineering, pharmacy, the lifetime salaries for the 4 year college grad would exceed,by well over $90,000, that for only the high school grad.

Not so sure about the disparity between the salaries for the average liberal arts major vs.the average high school grad.

In these times, there are not many unskilled jobs, so that even non-college grads, have to know how to operate a computer, and operate robotic machinery. So then, their salaries may reflect those enhanced skills.

A successful electrician, plumber, contractor can make as much as a college grad who majored in liberal arts and does not go further for advanced degrees or into professional school.

Even if he or she does go on for advanced schooling, or gets a corporate position, there is the real issue of company mergers or downsizing and age-related discrimination in the corporate world.

A skilled trades person can work on their own, unlike a corporate employee (college grad) who often is subject the whims of a profit at all costs manager, or a company that gets extinguished by leveraged buyouts from hedge fund companies, or gets pushed out by a younger employee so the company can save money and medical costs.

I am glad I am retired and don't have to deal with these issues.

 

[upstater]

A successful electrician, plumber, contractor can make as much as a college grad who majored in liberal arts and does not go further for advanced degrees or into professional school.

Can you show me where you came up with this?

By saying liberal arts, you're excluding pre-professional programs like Social Work, which is a very low paying profession. Once those are excluded, you have very high salaries for philosophy majors, English majors, and the like.

 

[Improviser]

Can you show me where you came up with this?

By saying liberal arts, you're excluding pre-professional programs like Social Work, which is a very low paying profession. Once those are excluded, you have very high salaries for philosophy majors, English majors, and the like.

I did exclude liberal arts majors who did not either go on to advanced degrees where they could teach on a college level or continue using their majors to take professional programs.

Now, I ask you, where you get your information on philosophy and English majors (absent getting advanced degrees ) commanding high salaries? For what jobs do they command high salaries? If you have Department of Labor statistics, please share them.

I have known of successful electrical and plumbing contractors earning $250,000. Now, I don't have any published studies, but my main point was about the salary disparity between the study comparing high school graduates and college graduates seemed incomplete because post high school tech school or community college education did not seem to be addressed to my knowledge.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Can you show me where you came up with this?

By saying liberal arts, you're excluding pre-professional programs like Social Work, which is a very low paying profession. Once those are excluded, you have very high salaries for philosophy majors, English majors, and the like.

Some of it is regional, some of it is opportunity.
Most licensed tradesmen- plumbers, electricians, etc will earn $40-$50/hr within a few years. There is also the good chance to work 60-70 hours a week and get close to six figures. The blowback is you're working all them hours.

Here's BLS numbers for electricians. Median pay of $56k and top ten percent are $95k range.

Home : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Occupational Outlook Handbook is the government's premier source of career guidance featuring hundreds of occupations—such as carpenters, teachers, and veterinarians. Revised annually, the latest version contains employment projections for the 2022-32 decade.

www.bls.gov

Here's a list for many skilled tradesmen. Elevator dudes crush it.

Home : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Occupational Outlook Handbook is the government's premier source of career guidance featuring hundreds of occupations—such as carpenters, teachers, and veterinarians. Revised annually, the latest version contains employment projections for the 2022-32 decade.

www.bls.gov

 

[upstater]

Some of it is regional, some of it is opportunity.
Most licensed tradesmen- plumbers, electricians, etc will earn $40-$50/hr within a few years. There is also the good chance to work 60-70 hours a week and get close to six figures. The blowback is you're working all them hours.

Here's BLS numbers for electricians. Median pay of $56k and top ten percent are $95k range.

Home : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Occupational Outlook Handbook is the government's premier source of career guidance featuring hundreds of occupations—such as carpenters, teachers, and veterinarians. Revised annually, the latest version contains employment projections for the 2022-32 decade.

www.bls.gov

Here's a list for many skilled tradesmen. Elevator dudes crush it.

Home : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Occupational Outlook Handbook is the government's premier source of career guidance featuring hundreds of occupations—such as carpenters, teachers, and veterinarians. Revised annually, the latest version contains employment projections for the 2022-32 decade.

www.bls.gov

The numbers for English, History and Philosophy grads are a lot higher though

 

[upstater]

I did exclude liberal arts majors who did not either go on to advanced degrees where they could teach on a college level or continue using their majors to take professional programs.

Now, I ask you, where you get your information on philosophy and English majors (absent getting advanced degrees ) commanding high salaries? For what jobs do they command high salaries? If you have Department of Labor statistics, please share them.

I have known of successful electrical and plumbing contractors earning $250,000. Now, I don't have any published studies, but my main point was about the salary disparity between the study comparing high school graduates and college graduates seemed incomplete because post high school tech school or community college education did not seem to be addressed to my knowledge.

I know an English grad who is a hedge fund manager and is worth a billion.

But let's ignore anecdotes and outliers:

https://www.burning-glass.com/wp-content/uploads/permanent_detour_underemployment_report.pdf

Have a look at page 20.

Also, this is on point as well, as Philosophy majors are compared to welders: Philosophers Don’t Get Much Respect, But Their Earnings Don’t Suck.

Finally, some perspective on career longevity, but this one looks at the advantages of STEM vs. Liberal Arts: In the Salary Race, Engineers Sprint but English Majors Endure

 

[huskiesNhoos]

Again with the statistics...

That data comes from the census bureau which is very underrepresented by lower classes, which skews the data higher. It also doesn't normalize for location, and doesn't account for actual fields of employment vs undergrad major. I would wager extremely low number of English grads that are still in the field are making $130k

 

[upstater]

Again with the statistics...

That data comes from the census bureau which is very underrepresented by lower classes, which skews the data higher. It also doesn't normalize for location, and doesn't account for actual fields of employment vs undergrad major. I would wager extremely low number of English grads that are still in the field are making $130k

Trust me, we have a ton of studies. We use them all the time in presentations. I don't know you find this so hard to believe. Many of my students have excellent jobs in the 6 figures. I have one who started in editing and ended up leading a team of computer people and engineers in setting up their company's client website only because they could write and had at least some aesthetic sensibility. What do you think a business writer at Vanguard is earning these days?

 

[huskiesNhoos]

Trust me, we have a ton of studies. We use them all the time in presentations. I don't know you find this so hard to believe. Many of my students have excellent jobs in the 6 figures. I have one who started in editing and ended up leading a team of computer people and engineers in setting up their company's client website only because they could write and had at least some aesthetic sensibility. What do you think a business writer at Vanguard is earning these days?

I guess every company I've ever worked for or with and never once have I seen a member on any level of upper management that's majored in a social science. And for an earner making $130k+ I assume them to be upper/senior management

Probably that and some engrained stereotypes that things like English and other social sciences aren't high paying majors

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I teach elementary school and our district has given a choice of in person or a “Remote Learning Experience.” So far about for my school 40% will be in person, 30% want online and 30% haven’t responded. The big question is what to do with the kids whose families don’t respond?