Chief’s Briefs - Xavier Edition

[Chief00]

Reed shot 67% FG (8-12) for 17 points and 14 rebounds. While Reibe was 3-3 FG and 3-4 FT for 9 points and 4 rebounds. So the center position made 26 points and 18 rebounds. That beats the 13% 3pt shooting last game by our perimeter guys and created more open threes for Karaban, Ball and Smith.

In addition to Reibe both Ross (9pts, 67% FG, 4 rebs, 3 assists, 3 steals) and Smith ( 6 points, 2-2 3pt, 3 assists) played well off the bench. Demary had 9 points but had more turnovers (3) than assists (2).

Karaban was solid with 15 points on 50% shooting, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. Yet, he again went through a quiet period early in the second half. Mullins was 1-6 from 3pts and 3-3 from 2 pts. He needs to shoot an equal number of twos and threes. That might also get him to the foul line more too where he is very effective. Mullins is such an athlete and student of the game with 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 blocks and led our team with 33 minutes in the NYC spotlight.

When we win convincingly it is often due to advantages with FG% (57% - 37%), rebounds (40-28), and assist (18-6). Tonight was no different. Another key is to keep turnovers 10 or under.

Enjoy the journey. I guess the moderator had some fun with me with the ref name capitalization.

 

[Candyman]

Mullins is 2-17 from 3 the last two games. I think mid range jumpers will hopefully get his shot back.

 

[Edward Sargent]

Mullins needs to go to his mid range more until he gets his 3 pt shot back

 

[Old Man UConn]

Watch a lot of non Big East games this week and the officials in the BE are the worst and UCONN takes the brunt of it.
&m into second half Xavier is in the bonus. Shot 20 more FT's than Uconn and loses by 25. Notice younger officials in other leagues.
in other games with 5 m left in the second half some teams are 2-3-4 fouls for the half. Demery picks up 2 fouls in 4m.
Ross played very well last nite.

 

[DRBackup]

Yeah, the officiating is just brutal. I was losing my mind on the possession where Demery got switched onto Carrol and he basically bent Demery over at the waist with his forearm. No call. There were some ticky tacks called on UConn, but there was a ton of contact by Xavier that wasn't called. Call it tight, call it loose, whatever you want, but at least call it consistent for both teams.

Raftery plays it pretty straight with the officiating. Basically reacts in realtime and there were 3 or 4 calls that he thought were wrong. The shoulda-been held ball foul on Demery being one.

 

[dogpause]

Chief, I think you're wrong about FT disparity and the officiating in general. FTA's come from dribble penetration, and many other thingss. Also, the disparity has happened often enough to suggest that the problem is our players, or style of play.

We also use fouls strategically to prevent easy buckets. And we commit a lot of dumb fouls which puts us in the bonus a lot. It's not the officiating. Officials want to do a good job, and they want good assignments. Do they make mistakes? Of course, but mistakes are a two-way street that tends to balance out.

 

[Chief00]

Mullins is 2-17 from 3 the last two games. I think mid range jumpers will hopefully get his shot back.

I agree, go with what is working and then gradually expand that. The shooting talent is there it is just shot selection and rhythm.

 

[Chief00]

Chief, I think you're wrong about FT disparity and the officiating in general. FTA's come from dribble penetration, and many other thingss. Also, the disparity has happened often enough to suggest that the problem is our players, or style of play.

We also use fouls strategically to prevent easy buckets. And we commit a lot of dumb fouls which puts us in the bonus a lot. It's not the officiating. Officials want to do a good job, and they want good assignments. Do they make mistakes? Of course, but mistakes are a two-way street that tends to balance out.

Going by the data:
Foul Shot Attempts: UConn (13) to Xavier (33)
3Point Attempts: UConn (32) to Xavier (28)
Points in the paint: UConn (42) to Xavier (16)
Bottomline:
Xavier: 154% more foul shot attempts than UConn
UConn: 15% more 3pt attempts than Xavier
UConn: 162% more points in the paint than Xavier

In short, we took marginally (15%) more 3 pointers but UConn had 162% more points in the point, yet we are on the short end of a 154% foul shot discrepancy.

No matter how someone capitalizes the refs name, Hurley point is 154% correct even if you don’t like his hysterics. Val and her inept/ bias staff embarrass themselves and all should be terminated/fined!

 

[dogpause]

But this happens in many of the games. This does not imply that the referees are intentionally biased against us.

 

[Drfla]

But this happens in many of the games. This does not imply that the referees are intentionally biased against us.

Let’s see if it happens in the tournament when we play OOC opponents. Betting you won’t see the kind of discrepancies seen on a regular basis with Big East refs.

 

[DRBackup]

Going by the data:
Foul Shot Attempts: UConn (13) to Xavier (33)
3Point Attempts: UConn (32) to Xavier (28)
Points in the paint: UConn (42) to Xavier (16)
Bottomline:
Xavier: 154% more foul shot attempts than UConn
UConn: 15% more 3pt attempts than Xavier
UConn: 162% more points in the paint than Xavier

In short, we took marginally (15%) more 3 pointers but UConn had 162% more points in the point, yet we are on the short end of a 154% foul shot discrepancy.

No matter how someone capitalizes the refs name, Hurley point is 154% correct even if you don’t like his hysterics. Val and her inept/ bias staff embarrass themselves and all should be terminated/fined!

I mean he is at least partly right. Next level stat that supports it at KenPom - 2PA distance

UConn - 6.6 feet
Xavier - 3.1 feet

But, both things can be true at the same time. Yes, Uconn did commit some dumb fouls, yes they aggressively fouled to prevent easy layups (solid strategy with Xavier shooting just 64% from the line), but the officials also let Xavier hack the living crap out of UConn with lots of questionable no-calls.

 

[DRBackup]

Let’s see if it happens in the tournament when we play OOC opponents. Betting you won’t see the kind of discrepancies seen on a regular basis with Big East refs.

And this I absolutely agree with. No way tournament officials are going to let teams hack us unmercifully without calling fouls. We have at least one solid data point for comparison - 2023. Very similar difference between ours and the opponents FT rate as this year. And while the overall difference stayed consistent, both UConn and opponents FT rate were quite a bit lower than the season averages.

 

[Donyell 360]

I thought Mullins got away with one when he supposedly blocked the shooters shot but replay seemed to show he got his arm.

 

[Chief00]

I mean he is at least partly right. Next level stat that supports it at KenPom - 2PA distance

UConn - 6.6 feet
Xavier - 3.1 feet

But, both things can be true at the same time. Yes, Uconn did commit some dumb fouls, yes they aggressively fouled to prevent easy layups (solid strategy with Xavier shooting just 64% from the line), but the officials also let Xavier hack the living crap out of UConn with lots of questionable no-calls.

We are over 150% under water foul shot attempt wise and there some nonsense about 6 ft vs 3ft average on 2 pt shots. Many of Reed’s post moves are in the 6 foot range. Afterall he’s 7 feet. Same for Reibe. That’s a dumb metric if used to try to explain the 20 ft attempt difference is these 3 feet. Mullins and Karaban both after being grabbed and held numerous times hit 5-10 foot shots that impact the average.
You also must realize Xavier got into the penalty both halves very early so some of their foul shots had nothing to do with shooting. That’s an insane metric to apply to last night.

 

[Chief00]

But this happens in many of the games. This does not imply that the referees are intentionally biased against us.

It doesn’t matter if it’s intentional or subconscious driven by their dislike for Hurley. I personally know more details about this than I share or imagine the capitalizations here if I did.

 

[DRBackup]

We are over 150% under water foul shot attempt wise and there some nonsense about 6 ft vs 3ft average on 2 pt shots. Many of Reed’s post moves are in the 6 foot range. Afterall he’s 7 feet. Same for Reibe. That’s a dumb metric if used to try to explain the 20 ft attempt difference is these 3 feet. Mullins and Karaban both after being grabbed and held numerous times hit 5-10 foot shots that impact the average.
You also must realize Xavier got into the penalty both halves very early so some of their foul shots had nothing to do with shooting. That’s an insane metric to apply to last night.

It's not that hard to figure out. It's an "average". If you take all of Reed and Reibe's shots at point blank range (say 2 feet) out of the "average", and Ross' three dunks at zero feet, that distance goes up even more to 13.5 feet. Xavier was driving to the basket, where the shot attempts are very short. UConn wasn't and their average 2P shot distance, especially outside of the guys taking point blank shots, reflects that.

It isn't an "insane" metric. It literally mirrors the original assertion that Xavier was more aggressive going to the basket. And you don't get to shoot 1 and 1 or the double bonus without getting fouled the first 6(12) times.

 

[dogpause]

The other thing you can do is take notes during the game of fouls that you disagreed with, or that the announcers and/or replay disagreed with. Include both teams and include fouls that weren't called but IYO should have been. Stats alone don't seem to provide much validity.

 

[Chief00]

You wonder who calculated this KenPom metric 6 vs 3 feet on two point shots. First, we had 42 points in the paint to 16. lol

We had 23 two point shots to 10 for Xavier or 130% more. 21 of which were in the paint per ESPN stats. 8 of Xavier’s 2 point shots were in the paint. So we had 13 more shots in the paint than Xavier or 26 points more.
Since they had so much fewer paint shots who cares if on average they were 3 feet closer. We had many more.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

A couple quick comments:

About a minute into his first appearance last night Reibe received a pass while cutting down the lane (a beautifully designed play) and was stripped by a reach in. His mentality in that situation needs to be "if you want to knock the ball loose you're going to have to foul me". He has to get a bit meaner, a bit more willing to benefit from his size, a bit more assertive and determined.

Twice in the second half (it happened right in front of me, about 90 seconds apart) while Reed was fighting for position, the Xavier defender had both arms wrapped around him, basically at the bottom of Reed's ribcage. Ray Charles could have made that call if he was the referee. I wouldn't mind it if the refs let both sides play, but there were quite a few fouls on questionable, if ant contact called against our guys.

About eight times throughout the game one of our guys circling through an offensive set had his jersey grabbed and yanked. There was one hold called all game against X and that was when the game was well out of hand.

 

[Chief00]

It's not that hard to figure out. It's an "average". If you take all of Reed and Reibe's shots at point blank range (say 2 feet) out of the "average", that distance goes up even more to 11.5 feet. Xavier was driving to the basket, where the shot attempts are very short. UConn wasn't and their average 2P shot distance reflects that.

It isn't an "insane" metric. It literally mirrors the original assertion that Xavier was more aggressive going to the basket. And you don't get to shoot 1 and 1 or the double bonus without getting fouled the first 6(12) times.

And after 10 you double FTA’s on the double bonus. And since they shot FTs poorly they would not likely have gotten that second FTA shot after reaching a 1 in 1. Good thing for you George Blaney is retired, maybe someone poor at math is around that can’t process the math correctly.

 

[Chief00]

A couple quick comments:

About a minute into his first appearance last night Reibe received a pass while cutting down the lane (a beautifully designed play) and was stripped by a reach in. His mentality in that situation needs to be "if you want to knock the ball loose you're going to have to foul me". He has to get a bit meaner, a bit more willing to benefit from his size, a bit more assertive and determined.

Twice in the second half (it happened right in front of me, about 90 seconds apart) while Reed was fighting for position, the Xavier defender had both arms wrapped around him, basically at the bottom of Reed's ribcage. Ray Charles could have made that call if he was the referee. I wouldn't mind it if the refs let both sides play, but there were quite a few fouls on questionable, if ant contact called against our guys.

About eight times throughout the game one of our guys circling through an offensive set had his jersey grabbed and yanked. There was one hold called all game against X and that was when the game was well out of hand.

Exactly. Hurley is factually right about this despite his over the top behavior.

 

[DRBackup]

You wonder who calculated this KenPom metric 6 vs 3 feet on two point shots. First, we had 42 points in the paint to 16. lol

We had 23 two point shots to 10 for Xavier or 130% more. 21 of which were in the paint per ESPN stats. 8 of Xavier’s 2 point shots were in the paint. So we had 13 more shots in the paint than Xavier or 26 points more.
Since they had so much fewer paint shots who cares if on average they were 3 feet closer. We had many more.

Who cares ? I just explained why that matters. And it is shot attempts, not shots made. The point, again, is that outside of Reed, Reibe, and Ross, the rest of the team took 11 shots inside the arc for an estimated average distance of 13.5 feet. Those are jump shots and you don't get fouled on that kind of shot like you do driving to the basket, again, which is the original point I was responding to.

 

[sledog]

Did anyone ever check to see if the zebrtas are holding positions on UC spreads?

 

[Chief00]

The other thing you can do is take notes during the game of fouls that you disagreed with, or that the announcers and/or replay disagreed with. Include both teams and include fouls that weren't called but IYO should have been. Stats alone don't seem to provide much validity.

That gets very subjective. I rather go by logical data - when your opponent shoots 150% more foul shoots despite you winning by 25, data alarm bells go off since the team behind normally commits more fouls trying to get back in the game. They only made 8 shots in the paint all night, us 21!

 

[Chief00]

Who cares ? I just explained why that matters. And it is shot attempts, not shots made. The point, again, is that outside of Reed, Reibe, and Ross, the rest of the team took 11 shots inside the arc for an estimated average distance of 13.5 feet. Those are jump shots and you don't get fouled on that kind of shot like you do driving to the basket, again, which is the original point I was responding to.

You are doubling down on illogic. The bottom line is we had 42 points in the paint to 16. Or 26 points more. We had 162% more points in the paint, they had 154% more foul shots. Hurley is right about the officiating.