Chicago Sun-Times: Big10 Will Add 15 & 16

[nelsonmuntz]

I was talking all in to the league. Doesn't matter if it's ESPN, Fox or BTN. What UConn would have gotten in the ACC doesn't much matter and they were never close to an invite anyway. If the Tier 1/w rights holder isn't willing to pay 16 more than 14 on a per school basis and the school can't make it up in other ways you can cross them off the list. A list that probably only exists on places like the Boneyard anyway. If any of the better targets you mention were interested Rutgers would be in the AAC.

I'm working off their future projections not what they get today, but I've been using 40 since it's a round number. It may turn out to be 35 or 45 or whatever.

Notre Dame is never happening. Well at least not in any of our lifetimes. If something happened where they were forced to join a conference and it's not; they would head to the ACC.

I can't see Texas either. They run their own conference where they have huge advantages - why go be under the thumb of the Big Ten power structure when you can play in something that you run and makes a lot more geographic sense.

North Carolina would also be a huge get for the Big Ten and another one that isn't going to happen.

So Whaler doesn't think UConn will ever get in the Big 10 or ACC, but also doesn't think UConn should do anything to increase its revenues beyond what it is making in the AAC. Got it.

 

[SubbaBub]

UConn should be worth $25-30M to the BTN in carriage fees plus another $5-10M on the national contract for BB alone. It's not money keeping them out.

 

[whaler11]

So Whaler doesn't think UConn will ever get in the Big 10 or ACC, but also doesn't think UConn should do anything to increase its revenues beyond what it is making in the AAC. Got it.

Oh Waylon.

Thinking your 'solutions' are stupid is not the same thing as thinking UConn shouldn't do anything to increase revenues. Specifically your football independence platform is the single worst idea I've ever seen consistently raised here. As long as Ollie is employed UConn has time because the basketball program won't need to be 'saved'.

Extra bonus points though for misrepresenting what I've said. I don't think there is anything going on currently with UConn and the Big Ten or ACC. That does not equate to 'never'.

I don't think the Big Ten is in a position to do anything prior to seeing how Maryland and Rutgers work out relative to cable contracting.

I think UConn would have an opportunity in the medium term with the Big Ten if the BTN falls short of their goals in NYC.

I think that the conferences need to see how the CFB playoff shakes out for a few seasons before a league like the Big 12 makes any moves. If the Big 12 ends up needing additional teams to hold a football playoff there may be opportunity there.

I think UConn to the ACC is dead for a while. The concept of their network is DOA. I don't think any of the teams that would be realistically desired by another conference want to leave. Without someone leaving Notre Dame's precence makes it hard for me to see them going to 15 in football or 17 in other sports.

I don't think any of the conferences will test anyone's GOR anytime soon which may create UConn's biggest challenge: There is no #16 for UConn in the Big 10.

But unlike you I understand that this is just what I think and could end up being 100% wrong and UConn could get an invite to the Big Ten in 20 minutes. There are many potential outcomes - I just see inertia for the next 3-5 years as things play out in the medium term.

 

[whaler11]

UConn should be worth $25-30M to the BTN in carriage fees plus another $5-10M on the national contract for BB alone. It's not money keeping them out.

If the BTN changed their strategy and charged variable rates they could generate the carriage fees. They don't come close at $1.

 

[mavblues]

What excess content of value would they be selling? I don't see any way in the world BTN2 is viable. They already have thousands of hours a year where they have nothing to show.

And they also have the rights to thousands of hours of LIVE programming that they currently can't show LIVE as it happens. Replaying a game is not the same as showing it LIVE. B1G will also be going to a 10 game football schedule, so factor that in. (9 games as soon as they can, then up again to 10.)

As an aside, I'm so sick and tired of hearing "football drives the bus" from people. It does in the current model, because the NCAA funds itself from BB tournament revenues, making the economic impact from BB artificially low. I don't see the current model continuing much longer, meaning BB will have a greater economic impact going forward.

Delany has big plans, and it includes a BTN2 and streaming. They already have it (streaming) setup. It's similar to the ESPN3 model, where you get access to the streams if you are on certain carriers that include BTN in your subscription.

We'll see. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, and you are defending it well.

 

[whaler11]

And they also have the rights to thousands of hours of LIVE programming that they currently can't show LIVE as it happens. Replaying a game is not the same as showing it LIVE.

As an aside, I'm so sick and tired of hearing "football drives the bus" from people. It does in the current model, because the NCAA funds itself from BB tournament revenues, making the economic impact from BB artificially low. I don't see the current model continuing much longer, meaning BB will have a greater economic impact going forward.

Delany has big plans, and it includes a BTN2 and streaming. They already have it (streaming) setup. It's similar to the ESPN3 model, where you get access to the streams if you are on certain carriers that include BTN in your subscription.

We'll see. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, and you are
defending it well.

Yeah I have the Big Ten app it's pretty good I've watched a few games on it.

Streaming I can see them delivering much more on. I just can't really see a time when baseball, softball, wrestling, soccer and everything that isn't FB, BB or hockey generates enough interest to make the second television outlet necessary.

Will there be a critical mass of people willing to pay anything additional for access to those events? That is a pretty specialized niche - I know they are huge schools but how many people will watch regular season college softball for free, nevermind any attempt to further monetize it.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Yeah I have the Big Ten app it's pretty good I've watched a few games on it.

Streaming I can see them delivering much more on. I just can't really see a time when baseball, softball, wrestling, soccer and everything that isn't FB, BB or hockey generates enough interest to make the second television outlet necessary.

Will there be a critical mass of people willing to pay anything additional for access to those events? That is a pretty specialized niche - I know they are huge schools but how many people will watch regular season college softball for free, nevermind any attempt to further monetize it.

If any UConn sport is televised, I'll watch it. But I'm a little sick. I really, really, really, really, really want them go back to D1 men's lacrosse.

 

[primus74]

If any UConn sport is televised, I'll watch it. But I'm a little sick. I really, really, really, really, really want them go back to D1 men's lacrosse.

Did UConn ever have D1 Men's Lacrosse? If so, why did they drop it? Title IX compliance reasons? Seems like a natural sport for CT. Lots of good HS players and the best recruiting areas of LI and Maryland are close.

 

[Jimdish255]

Don't you think the cable carriers have already made it plain what it will take to get carriage in the tri-state markets? I'm sure they're lowballing the content demand/value at the moment but that's actually a good thing for us. Let Delaney stew a bit on the idea that Rutgers brings a large rabid fanbase. In the meantime anyone who really cares migrates to DTV to get the B1G Network. Those in the city hit the sportsbars for the big Rutgers-Purdue game. And there goes your most likely advocates. Time is not on his side.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Did UConn ever have D1 Men's Lacrosse? If so, why did they drop it? Title IX compliance reasons? Seems like a natural sport for CT. Lots of good HS players and the best recruiting areas of LI and Maryland are close.

Up until the 80s. My dad actually played in the early 70s. I played on the club team there in the early 2000s, but it's obviously not the same thing. It was mostly money stuff. The athletic department never really took them seriously.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Without someone leaving Notre Dame's precence makes it hard for me to see them going to 15 in football or 17 in other sports.

I don't think any of the conferences will test anyone's GOR anytime soon which may create UConn's biggest challenge: There is no #16 for UConn in the Big 10.

Given the B1G's move east, is it not conceivable that Virginia would be the #16 paired with us? Or are their barriers to exit the ACC too high?

With Virginia, you have 4 pods of 4:

UConn, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia
Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa
(maybe mix and match a little to even out the strength of the pods)

Virginia and UConn would bookend their penetration into the East Coast megalopolis, pretty much continuously from Richmond to Hartford, including DC, Baltimore, Philly, Jersey, NYC. I think this is their goal, and they want to see how far Rutgers and Maryland will take them (my guess: not far). We and Virginia are the logical options to complete this move.

 

[whaler11]

Given the B1G's move east, is it not conceivable that Virginia would be the #16 paired with us? Or are their barriers to exit the ACC too high?

With Virginia, you have 4 pods of 4:

UConn, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia
Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa
(maybe mix and match a little to even out the strength of the pods)

Virginia and UConn would bookend their penetration into the East Coast megalopolis, pretty much continuously from Richmond to Hartford, including DC, Baltimore, Philly, Jersey, NYC. I think this is their goal, and they want to see how far Rutgers and Maryland will take them (my guess: not far). We and Virginia are the logical options to complete this move.

I don't think they (Virginia) want to leave the ACC. They would be the school that makes the most sense but:

Are the P5 going to attack each other's GORs at the same time that they are banding together to keep the G5 and non FBS schools down?

Seems to me now that they have a vested interest in working together it might not be a fight any of them want to have.

I also can only work off the assumption that Virginia was a school that communicated a lack of interest prior to Maryland and Rutgers being added...

 

[pepband99]

If the BTN changed their strategy and charged variable rates they could generate the carriage fees. They don't come close at $1.

But, what about if the following happens (and I think it just might)...

1) BTN goes to Cablevision (for example) and demands a rate increase, because of Rutgers.
2) Cablevision tells them to pound sand (see YES and many other carriage disputes for evidence)
3) BTN politely asks if the addition of UConn would close the gap between ask and bid.

People seem to keep focusing on the Hartford/New Haven DMA, which sort of makes sense, but I think the key for us is our representation in the NY DMA pieces of CT, and our popularity in the NY area, as a whole.

I'm rooting for a big dustup between TWC/CVC/etc and the BTN. I think it helps us a ton.

 

[coachcap]

Up until the 80s. My dad actually played in the early 70s. I played on the club team there in the early 2000s, but it's obviously not the same thing. It was mostly money stuff. The athletic department never really took them seriously.

UConn eliminated both Men's Varsity Lacrosse & Wrestling to get into compliance with Title IX.

 

[whaler11]

But, what about if the following happens (and I think it just might)...

1) BTN goes to Cablevision (for example) and demands a rate increase, because of Rutgers.
2) Cablevision tells them to pound sand (see YES and many other carriage disputes for evidence)
3) BTN politely asks if the addition of UConn would close the gap between ask and bid.

People seem to keep focusing on the Hartford/New Haven DMA, which sort of makes sense, but I think the key for us is our representation in the NY DMA pieces of CT, and our popularity in the NY area, as a whole.

I'm rooting for a big dustup between TWC/CVC/etc and the BTN. I think it helps us a ton.

Yes that's what I've proposed as best case scenario for UConn since Rutgers was announced.

We want Rutgers to get BTN close, but not over the hump.

 

[CallMeBruce]

UConn eliminated both Men's Varsity Lacrosse & Wrestling to get into compliance with Title IX.

Because it was cheaper than adding women's sports to make up the difference.

 

[bobbyinaz]

And they also have the rights to thousands of hours of LIVE programming that they currently can't show LIVE as it happens. Replaying a game is not the same as showing it LIVE. B1G will also be going to a 10 game football schedule, so factor that in. (9 games as soon as they can, then up again to 10.)

As an aside, I'm so sick and tired of hearing "football drives the bus" from people. It does in the current model, because the NCAA funds itself from BB tournament revenues, making the economic impact from BB artificially low. I don't see the current model continuing much longer, meaning BB will have a greater economic impact going forward.

Delany has big plans, and it includes a BTN2 and streaming. They already have it (streaming) setup. It's similar to the ESPN3 model, where you get access to the streams if you are on certain carriers that include BTN in your subscription.

We'll see. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, and you are defending it well.

The NCAA signed a 14 year deal with CBS,TNT, TBS etc that started in 2011. There may be a change in hoops broadcasting in the future but it won't happen until that contract expires. We can't wait that long.

There are already alternate BTN channels. During football season they show different games at the same time. The guide on my DirecTV shows 5 alternate BTN channels.

 

[UConnDan97]

I support UConn's move to the B1G. I want to get that on record...

 

[SouthronCross]

Given the B1G's move east, is it not conceivable that Virginia would be the #16 paired with us? Or are their barriers to exit the ACC too high?

With Virginia, you have 4 pods of 4:

UConn, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia
Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa
(maybe mix and match a little to even out the strength of the pods)

Virginia and UConn would bookend their penetration into the East Coast megalopolis, pretty much continuously from Richmond to Hartford, including DC, Baltimore, Philly, Jersey, NYC. I think this is their goal, and they want to see how far Rutgers and Maryland will take them (my guess: not far). We and Virginia are the logical options to complete this move.

JMHO, but, UVA will not leave the ACC unless UNC does, and, that would mean that the league would be falling apart. UVA and UNC are peer institutions, and, each other's most respected rival.

Now, if the ACC were to implode, then UVA would be a B1G member in very short order, in my view. Theres no way on Earth that the UVA Board of Visitors would allow their school to ever join the SEC. Thats a bridge too far for them.

At UNC, there'd be a real tug of war between the UNC administration, and, big money donors, over which league to join. Then, there'd be the problem of what to do with NCSU. Because the NC General Assembly will not let NCSU wither on the vine, while UNC is living it up in the SEC or the B1G.

 

[TRest]

JMHO, but, UVA will not leave the ACC unless UNC does, and, that would mean that the league would be falling apart. UVA and UNC are peer institutions, and, each other's most respected rival.

Now, if the ACC were to implode, then UVA would be a B1G member in very short order, in my view. Theres no way on Earth that the UVA Board of Visitors would allow their school to ever join the SEC. Thats a bridge too far for them.

At UNC, there'd be a real tug of war between the UNC administration, and, big money donors, over which league to join. Then, there'd be the problem of what to do with NCSU. Because the NC General Assembly will not let NCSU wither on the vine, while UNC is living it up in the SEC or the B1G.

NCSU should be able to sink or swim on its own. isn't that what they tell ECU?

 

[whaler11]

JMHO, but, UVA will not leave the ACC unless UNC does, and, that would mean that the league would be falling apart. UVA and UNC are peer institutions, and, each other's most respected rival.

Now, if the ACC were to implode, then UVA would be a B1G member in very short order, in my view. Theres no way on Earth that the UVA Board of Visitors would allow their school to ever join the SEC. Thats a bridge too far for them.

At UNC, there'd be a real tug of war between the UNC administration, and, big money donors, over which league to join. Then, there'd be the problem of what to do with NCSU. Because the NC General Assembly will not let NCSU wither on the vine, while UNC is living it up in the SEC or the B1G.

You know better than me but I think Carolina is happy in the ACC. They know like Texas in the Big 12 they call the shots.

I agree Virginia would leave with Carolina and I agree they have a State problem just like UVa has a Tech problem but I do think both sister schools would land on their feet in the SEC, they make a ton of sense for their network.

I work under the assumption that Carolina and UVa would only join the Big 10 and not the SEC.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

JMHO, but, UVA will not leave the ACC unless UNC does, and, that would mean that the league would be falling apart. UVA and UNC are peer institutions, and, each other's most respected rival.

Now, if the ACC were to implode, then UVA would be a B1G member in very short order, in my view. Theres no way on Earth that the UVA Board of Visitors would allow their school to ever join the SEC. Thats a bridge too far for them.

At UNC, there'd be a real tug of war between the UNC administration, and, big money donors, over which league to join. Then, there'd be the problem of what to do with NCSU. Because the NC General Assembly will not let NCSU wither on the vine, while UNC is living it up in the SEC or the B1G.

If UVA went to the B1G followed by UNC with NC State likely going to the SEC, would the athletic side of UNC be concerned that NC State may get a leg up over UNC, especially in football? Also, where would Duke go?

 

[whaler11]

If UVA went to the B1G followed by UNC with NC State likely going to the SEC, would the athletic side of UNC be concerned that NC State may get a leg up over UNC, especially in football? Also, where would Duke go?

They have no political connection to Duke.

It would be the other way around: Virginia would follow Carolina.

NC State has had a football edge on UNC plenty of times over the years, their local fanbase is much stronger than Carolina's for football, even if that isn't known nationally.

NC State's local basketball fanbase is stronger than Carolina's as well - it's just nationally they get overwhelmed.

 

[RMoore1999]

Is that a poop stain?

I had assumed it was just a menstrual clot gone awry.

Or maybe some lipstick.

 

[uconNYC]

If UVA went to the B1G followed by UNC with NC State likely going to the SEC, would the athletic side of UNC be concerned that NC State may get a leg up over UNC, especially in football? Also, where would Duke go?

If B1G went to 16 with UNC and UVA, SEC would be inclined to go to 16 too and take NC State and Virginia Tech. Then FSU and Clemson would go to B12. So the remaining ACC would be the old Big East + Duke, Wake and GTech.

 

[SAMCRO]

Or maybe some lipstick.

I choose/prefer to believe this.

 

[CAHUSKY]

NC State's local basketball fanbase is stronger than Carolina's as well - it's just nationally they get overwhelmed.

Huh? That has not been my experience having spent a quite a bit of time in the state and having lots of friends and family living there. UNC has significantly more living alumni and the NCst fanbase extends to about the campus border.

 

[SouthronCross]

NCSU should be able to sink or swim on its own. isn't that what they tell ECU?

UNC and NCSU have been in the same conferences for roughly 110 years, and, as such, the NCGA will not allow one to prosper, while the other struggles.

As for ECU, they have never been thought of as equal to either UNC or NCSU, by either the state government, the media, or, fans within the state. They have been looked upon as wannabes. Plus, UNC and NCSU have more political clout within the NC state government to ensure they continue to thrive.

That said, had ECU been able to gain entry into the BE before Pitt and Syracuse left, that might have made for at least a little different take on them.

Its no different here than it is in other states where there are multiple FBS schools.

 

[SouthronCross]

You know better than me but I think Carolina is happy in the ACC.

You are absolutely right. Keeping the ACC together, and, making it stronger, has ALWAYS been Carolina's first choice.

They know like Texas in the Big 12 they call the shots.

IMHO, that is a HUGE misperception. I am not saying that Carolina does not have a major say, but, theres no way UNC yields the kind of influence within the ACC that Texas does in the Big 12.

If Carolina really did have that kind of power, the ACC would not be as big as it is now. The only expansion that they would have voted for was to expand to 10 teams with Miami. But, the league went to 12, and, then to 14.

Also remember, if Carolina was that powerful, UConn would be in the ACC right now. Not Louisville. Probably not BC, either.

I agree Virginia would leave with Carolina and I agree they have a State problem just like UVa has a Tech problem but I do think both sister schools would land on their feet in the SEC, they make a ton of sense for their network.

I work under the assumption that Carolina and UVa would only join the Big 10 and not the SEC.

UVA knows VPI could go to the SEC if the ACC imploded, and, they would not care less. As I've stated before, I believe that the UVA Board of Visitors would never allow their school to be a member of the SEC. The fanbase might feel differently, but, I do not know enough Wahoo fans to make a guess on that. I believe they'd be in the B1G before anybody could make a fuss about it.

UNC is a much different story. The administration would clearly prefer the B1G, but, the big money donors would want the SEC. As would the fanbase. Myself included. I have a lot of respect for the B1G as a league for its ability to combine academics and athletics. But, I have always considered Carolina a Southern school, and, not an eastern school, like the administration seems to. It would be quite a debate over where UNC would end up.

 

[SouthronCross]

If UVA went to the B1G followed by UNC with NC State likely going to the SEC, would the athletic side of UNC be concerned that NC State may get a leg up over UNC, especially in football?

Oh yeah, for sure. Not just for football, but, for baseball, too. NCSU just made their first trip to the CWS in 45 years last season, and, they began this season ranked inside the Top 10. They have recruited much better of late, and, the program is growing in a positive direction. UNC feels that its baseball program would suffer playing in the B1G. They see it as a huge dropoff in competition from what the ACC is now, and, what the SEC has been for years.

Some at UNC believe that joining the B1G would really hurt the football program, as they feel that they would have a much more difficult time selling recruits on playing in the B1G, versus playing in the SEC.

Also, where would Duke go?

Duke is a private school, and would be on their own, as far as I am concerned.

I guess I am an anomaly among UNC fans, as I could not care less if Duke had to drop out of the FBS ranks. I have always considered NCSU our most hated rival in ALL sports. Including basketball. From my memories, Carolina-State was the ACC's biggest hoops rivalry in my youngest days, not Carolina-Duke.

UVA is our oldest and most respected rival, and, I'd want to make sure Carolina continued that series, as well as with NCSU, even if we ended up in different leagues.