Chasing Pat - Coaches' win totals at the start of the season

[CL82]

There are few interesting questions this season:

Will Geno catch Tara?
Will Tara catch Pat?
Will Geno catch Pat?
Will CViv pass Hatchell?
Will CViv retire?

I know that @vowelguy will do his usual great job keeping us up to date on these, but they are interesting to speculate about.

 

[EricLA]

I think it will be very hard for Geno to catch Tara in the next few years. Stanford will have their hands full in the uber tough Pac 12, but no one has a harder OOC schedule than UCONN. I think Tara catches Pat this year, Geno very early next year. But it would be cool if Stanford lost a few more games and both caught her in the same week...

 

[the Q]

It’s all going to come down to who can coach/live the longest out of spite to keep the other from finishing on top...

 

[bballnut90]

View attachment 48021

There are few interesting questions this season:

Will Geno catch Tara?
Will Tara catch Pat?
Will Geno catch Pat?
Will CViv pass Hatchell?
Will CViv retire?

I know that @vowelguy will do his usual great job keeping us up to date on these, but they are interesting to speculate about.

I think Geno passes Pat next year. The schedule overall is pretty light outside of the SC/Baylor/Oregon games, but he'd need to go at least 36-2 to tie Pat and 37-1 to pass her. Tara has a good shot to tie or pass Pat. Geno has a better shot to catch Tara next year.

CViv passes Hatchell, who knows if she retires. I thought she would've been done a while ago.

 

[CL82]

I think Geno passes Pat next year. The schedule overall is pretty light outside of the SC/Baylor/Oregon games, but he'd need to go at least 36-2 to tie Pat and 37-1 to pass her. Tara has a good shot to tie or pass Pat. Geno has a better shot to catch Tara next year.

CViv passes Hatchell, who knows if she retires. I thought she would've been done a while ago.

This is pretty much where I am as well. With increasing parity in the woman's game you have to wonder whether younger coaches will ever be able to catch the old guard.

 

[CL82]

It’s all going to come down to who can coach/live the longest out of spite to keep the other from finishing on top...

Honestly, five years ago, I doubted Geno would catch Tara. The math didn't seem like is was in his favor.

 

[bballnut90]

This is pretty much where I am as well. With increasing parity in the woman's game you have to wonder whether younger coaches will ever be able to catch the old guard.

Unlikely since it seems more and more difficult to obtain a solid coaching job at a young age. Geno was just 31 when he started at UCONN, Pat was 22, Vanderveer 25. Plus Geno and Tara could easily add another couple hundred wins if they stick around another 10 years. I don't see either stopping for at least another 5 years considering the kids they have coming in. If they stick around 8 more years and average 30 wins/season, they'll be at around 1300 wins.

 

[Centerstream]

Geno's Win % is what amazes me in all this.
I certainly hope that he stays near this % up to the day that he steps away.

 

[Plebe]

I think Tara will overtake Pat in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Stanford is scheduled to play 30 regular-season games, which means she theoretically *could* tie Pat in the first game of the Pac-12 tournament. But of course, it's very hard to imagine *any* team going undefeated through the Pac-12. Most likely scenario, IMO, is Stanford takes 2 or 3 losses in the regular season and then possibly one more in the Pac-12 tournament before reaching the NCAA tournament.

Stanford could certainly go — and probably should go — undefeated in its OOC; toughest opponent will likely be Mississippi State on a neutral court, assuming they both reach the Victoria Invitational final. Other "name" OOC opponents are mostly at home (Gonzaga, Buffalo, Ohio State, Tennessee), with the only mentionable non-home games are the game at Texas (should be an easy win, to be honest) and a potential semifinal game vs. Syracuse at Victoria.

In Pac-12 play, Stanford has to play the Oregon schools twice each in the regular season, and it'd be truly remarkable if they didn't lose at least one, or more likely two, of those four games. Otherwise, Stanford got a slight break in only having to play UCLA and the Arizona schools once each.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Geno's Win % is what amazes me in all this.
I certainly hope that he stays near this % up to the day that he steps away.

Exactly. To play the level of competition that UConn historically has and win over 88% of his games (starting from nothing) is amazing. What blows me away is that Geno has 1062 wins in only 34 seasons (31 wins a year).

 

[Carnac]

View attachment 48021

There are few interesting questions this season:

Will Geno catch Tara?
Will Tara catch Pat?
Will Geno catch Pat?
Will CViv pass Hatchell?
Will CViv retire?

I know that @vowelguy will do his usual great job keeping us up to date on these, but they are interesting to speculate about.

The way it’s been trending the last 5-6 years, Tara is not losing much ground to Geno. This year’s Stanford team probably won’t lose more than 2 games. Oregon will be their biggest obstacle or hurdle in the PAC 12. No. 1 Oregon will be the biggest game on all of their opponent’s schedule, and with good reason.

It’s very possible for Tara to overtake Pat Summitt THIS season, and become WCBB’s charter member of the 1100 win club.

 

[Centerstream]

The way it’s been trending the last 5-6 years, Tara is not losing much ground to Geno. This year’s Stanford team probably won’t lose more than 2 games. Oregon will be their biggest obstacle or hurdle in the PAC 12. No. 1 Oregon will be the biggest game on all of their opponent’s schedule, and with good reason.

Future WNBA first overall pick (to the NY Liberty) Sabrina Ionescu is the main reason. An extremely talented player that finally has a very good supporting cast around her. If Oregon is ever going to win a NC, this is the year.

They just knocked off the USA women’s senior basketball team. That should be an indication of how talented this team is.
I’m guessing that Oregon will be the only College team the seniors lose to.

I'm confused...how does this year's Oregon team join the conversation about the winningest WBB coach? Just curious.

 

[bballnut90]

I think Tara will overtake Pat in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Stanford is scheduled to play 30 regular-season games, which means she theoretically *could* tie Pat in the first game of the Pac-12 tournament. But of course, it's very hard to imagine *any* team going undefeated through the Pac-12. Most likely scenario, IMO, is Stanford takes 2 or 3 losses in the regular season and then possibly one more in the Pac-12 tournament before reaching the NCAA tournament.

Stanford could certainly go — and probably should go — undefeated in its OOC; toughest opponent will likely be Mississippi State on a neutral court, assuming they both reach the Victoria Invitational final. Other "name" OOC opponents are mostly at home (Gonzaga, Buffalo, Ohio State, Tennessee), with the only mentionable non-home games are the game at Texas (should be an easy win, to be honest) and a potential semifinal game vs. Syracuse at Victoria.

In Pac-12 play, Stanford has to play the Oregon schools twice each in the regular season, and it'd be truly remarkable if they didn't lose at least one, or more likely two, of those four games. Otherwise, Stanford got a slight break in only having to play UCLA and the Arizona schools once each.

I'll be surprised if they only lose 2 or 3. My guess is 4 or 5. Oregon teams twice each, Mississippi State, Tennessee and UCLA is a really tough lineup. Plus they could drop a random game here or there too. I'm not convinced Stanford is that good yet.

 

[Plebe]

I'll be surprised if they only lose 2 or 3. My guess is 4 or 5. Oregon teams twice each, Mississippi State, Tennessee and UCLA is a really tough lineup. Plus they could drop a random game here or there too. I'm not convinced Stanford is that good yet.

You're certainly right not to be convinced; I don't think any team has truly proven itself this early in the season. Even Oregon: it's one thing to get up and show out for a one-off exhibition game against pro players, but it's another to stiff-arm all comers throughout the season.

However, I think we have to guard against overreacting to Tennessee's win over this version of Notre Dame; Stanford will be neither as decimated nor as inept at rebounding as the impostors of last night. Sure, Stanford might lose the game but, make no mistake, it would take a significant upset.

I do think MSU and UCLA are the two teams not from Oregon that are most likely to score a RS win over Stanford. However, the MSU game will be early (late November) while Vic is still bringing along some very inexperienced pieces; Stanford should be a clear favorite there. The UCLA game isn't until February, so it's really early to have a feel for that prediction.

 

[BroadwayVa]

View attachment 48021

There are few interesting questions this season:

Will Geno catch Tara?
Will Tara catch Pat?
Will Geno catch Pat?
Will CViv pass Hatchell?
Will CViv retire?

I know that @vowelguy will do his usual great job keeping us up to date on these, but they are interesting to speculate about.

The big question is : Does GENO care whether he catches anyone as long as his team maintains a nearly 90 per cent winning rate? 34 years with and everyone with more W's have more Years coaching .

 

[bballnut90]

You're certainly right not to be convinced; I don't think any team has truly proven itself this early in the season. Even Oregon: it's one thing to get up and show out for a one-off exhibition game against pro players, but it's another to stiff-arm all comers throughout the season.

However, I think we have to guard against overreacting to Tennessee's win over this version of Notre Dame; Stanford will be neither as decimated nor as inept at rebounding as the impostors of last night. Sure, Stanford might lose the game but, make no mistake, it would take a significant upset.

I do think MSU and UCLA are the two teams not from Oregon that are most likely to score a RS win over Stanford. However, the MSU game will be early (late November) while Vic is still bringing along some very inexperienced pieces; Stanford should be a clear favorite there. The UCLA game isn't until mid-February, so it's really early to have a feel for that prediction.

Agree regarding Oregon. They beat Team USA but I don't see them going undefeated or going undefeated in Pac 12 play. Too many good teams and I don't see them being head and shoulders better than a lot of programs.

Regarding Tennessee/Stanford, I think it'll be interesting to see. Tennessee is very young but also very tall and very athletic. I could see them beating a team like Stanford but also losing to a dreadful team right after. Expecting a lot of inconsistency. I'm also just not sold on Stanford like some others are this year. They were good a year ago but they lost (by far) their best player in Smith and I'm not convinced new additions and player improvement will make up the loss of an efficient go to player. I don't think it'd be that significant of an upset should it happen.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Agree regarding Oregon. They beat Team USA but I don't see them going undefeated or going undefeated in Pac 12 play. Too many good teams and I don't see them being head and shoulders better than a lot of programs.

Regarding Tennessee/Stanford, I think it'll be interesting to see. Tennessee is very young but also very tall and very athletic. I could see them beating a team like Stanford but also losing to a dreadful team right after. Expecting a lot of inconsistency. I'm also just not sold on Stanford like some others are this year. They were good a year ago but they lost (by far) their best player in Smith and I'm not convinced new additions and player improvement will make up the loss of an efficient go to player. I don't think it'd be that significant of an upset should it happen.

So the players Tennessee lost from last year are no big deal but the one player Stanford lost is insurmountable? Just checking.