Kiki is certainly the real deal, and I'd love to see her select UConn. But to expect her to do so borders on fantasy, regardless of Geno's past recruiting triumphs and the UConn program's unparalleled success. Here's why:
1) Former Secy of State Condi Rice is her Aunt and Provost or some such title at Stanford, currently the "It" school for college applicants.
2) I've read on the Boneyard her parents are Yale graduates and respected executives.
3) She is a student at Sidwell Friends in DC, an environment that exposes students broadly to aspirations beyond basketball; meaning surely she has aspirations beyond basketball.
4) If she were to attend UConn, her first two years would require taking a backstage to Paige, Azzi, and probably others. At Stanford the stage will be hers far faster, possibly in Year 1.
5) Last I looked Stanford's program is not too shabby, with a respected coach and recruiter as well.
Sum it all up and Kiki will attend Stanford. I would love to be proven wrong, and if I've missed something, or there's error in my logic, no doubt BYers will let me know.
I think it comes down to what she wants out of her college experience.
If she wants to play for Geno, improve her skills, be prepared for the WNBA and have a great shot at winning title(s), then UCONN is the right choice. UCONN also has the most exposure, best fan support, and is the clear choice if some of her focus is based on NIL. Rice to UCONN doesn't make sense for Kiki in terms of playing time unless she's gambling on Paige leaving after the 2022-23 season. UCONN is already very deep at the 1-3 spots for the next few years with Buckers, Muhl, Fudd, Ducharme, Poffenbarger, and McLean all projected to be on the roster for Rice's first 2 years. I'm not sure Rice coming would honestly help UCONN all that much the first couple of years, particularly if Bueckers stays 4 (or even 5) years. UCONN is also not nearly as prestigious as Duke/UCLA/Stanford academically but is still a good school. If she prefers playing for a male head coach, it's worth noting UCONN is the only finalist with a male head coach. Also, I'm not sure what her relationship is with Fudd but both are from similar areas I believe which may help UCONN's chances marginally. I don't think she'll pick UCONN due to how stacked the roster already is, but with that said, I didn't expect Patterson to pick UCONN either, so time will tell.
Rice to Duke makes sense if she vibes well with Lawson, as both were standout guards from the DC area and both were great students. Durham is closest to home of the finalists and she may want to be "the" player who helps bring Duke back into the limelight of women's basketball. She'll likely start from day 1 and have the program built around her for 4 years, which isn't the case at any other finalist besides maybe Arizona. Her odds of winning a title or making a deep tournament run are much lower than the other finalists though, and she'd be taking more of a chance going with Lawson who is an unproven coach.
UCLA makes sense if she wants a mix of everything. She'd likely be a standout from the get go, have excellent academics, good coaching, a beautiful campus and some of the best weather in the country. UCLA has been consistently good but not strong enough to get to the Final Four and a player like her could push UCLA over the hump. Title chances are slim here compared to Stanford/UCONN, and Close is a good coach but lacks the reputation or accolades that Tara/Geno have. UCLA seems to check all the boxes but there isn't any major draw compared to the other schools IMO.
Stanford logically makes the most sense for the reasons you noted above. She has a great shot for big minutes from the get go, Stanford is loaded with talent the next several years, Tara is the 2nd most accomplished coach in WCBB, Stanford is the standout academically of the 5 and she'd have 4 years with Betts to create something special in Palo Alto. I don't see any real downsides with Stanford unless she likes different coaches/programs more (which is usually the #1 deciding factor for recruits, so that very well may be the case).
Arizona is somewhat of a wildcard since they're by far the least reputable academically and don't appear to be in the mix as a title contender for the next few years. Also, AZ is the most difficult location for friends/family to get to if they want to see her play since Tucson is an hour outside of Phoenix. That said, Barnes is doing a great job in Arizona and she'd have 3 years with Nnaji. Arizona has strong support for women's basketball and similar to Duke, she'd likely be the standout player here for 4 years.