Charlie Creme - Seeding Changes & Bubble Teams

[DobbsRover2]

UTenn does have a somewhat better SOS in Massey (#3 versus #8) than does Maryland, but in Sagarin MD is 6-1 versus T25 and 14-1 versus T50, to UTenn's 6-3 and 11-4. MD does though have the loss to #60 WSU, while UTenn's worst loss is to Chattanooga

Lots of stuff for the committee to chew over, but if MD wins out, I cannot imagine a case where the team that is undefeated in its conference and winner of the regular and tournament championships of the Sagarin top rated conference would be displaced from a #1 seed, even if UTenn ran the table by gigantic margins in the #3 rated conference's tournament.

 

[JoePgh]

Charlie Creme has a Bracketology update out today (3/6) which does exactly what I predicted: Tennessee goes to Albany as the #2 seed behind UConn; Oregon State to Spokane behind Maryland; Baylor to Oklahoma City behind Notre Dame (so ND switched from Greensboro to OKC since his last bracket); and Florida State to Greensboro behind South Carolina.

He also has South Florida as a #7 seed in the Greensboro bracket, implying that they will play their first round in Tallahassee and will probably have to beat Florida State on FSU's home court to advance to the Sweet 16. Which they might do.

As he says in an accompanying article:

After delving into some more history and the underlying stated goals of earlier committees, it seems the commitment to the s-curve takes a distant second-place to keeping teams as close to home as possible.

No kidding.

He rubs it in by having Duke as the #3 seed in Albany, implying that they will have to beat both Tennessee and UConn (most likely) to advance to the Final Four. JPM will be delighted with that.

But we have to bear in mind that this is all mind-reading on Mr. Creme's part. And his qualifications as a mind reader are probably no better than any of ours.

 

[mtsuraider06]

Charlie Creme has a Bracketology update out today (3/6) which does exactly what I predicted: Tennessee goes to Albany as the #2 seed behind UConn; Oregon State to Spokane behind Maryland; Baylor to Oklahoma City behind Notre Dame (so ND switched from Greensboro to OKC since his last bracket); and Florida State to Greensboro behind South Carolina.

He also has South Florida as a #7 seed in the Greensboro bracket, implying that they will play their first round in Tallahassee and will probably have to beat Florida State on FSU's home court to advance to the Sweet 16. Which they might do.

As he says in an accompanying article:

After delving into some more history and the underlying stated goals of earlier committees, it seems the commitment to the s-curve takes a distant second-place to keeping teams as close to home as possible.

No kidding.

He rubs it in by having Duke as the #3 seed in Albany, implying that they will have to beat both Tennessee and UConn (most likely) to advance to the Final Four. JPM will be delighted with that.

But we have to bear in mind that this is all mind-reading on Mr. Creme's part. And his qualifications as a mind reader are probably no better than any of ours.

With this "logic", Maryland would have to play an "away" game to get to the Final Four, and the top #2 seed would be paired with the top #1 seed. Tennessee earned the right to play the lowest #4, if they are set as a #2 seed, due to their RPI/SOS/Top 10 & 50 wins.

Baylor should be moved to Greensboro with Notre Dame/South Carolina, and Oregon State should be in OKC with South Carolina/Notre Dame. Florida State should be in Albany with UConn. This would make all Regional Finals take place on a neutral court.

The NCAA knows that Tennessee travels well no matter what, so they shouldn't be worried about fans being in Spokane. There will be plenty.

If the team sent to Albany had the resume that Tennessee has, and they weren't named Tennessee, many UConn fans would not be happy with the top #2 seed being sent to their regional.

 

[JoePgh]

If the team sent to Albany had the resume that Tennessee has, and they weren't named Tennessee, many UConn fans would not be happy with the top #2 seed being sent to their regional.

MTSU Raider, that last statement of yours is absolutely correct. If Tennessee does in fact get sent to Albany (no sure thing), then a very large number of UConn fans will not be pleased, both because the opponent IS named Tennessee AND because it is the strongest #2 seed.

Others, such as myself, just want to see the two teams play after all this time, and many of us are fairly confident that UConn would prevail (but that is no sure thing either).

But there is no reason either to get upset or to start licking our chops at this point, since we really have no indication what the Committee will actually do.

 

[VFLfan]

Well this TN fan says if it happens then let's play ball! Y'all can beat us up or whatever but i don't think the girls will back down. Love March Madness!!

 

[BlueDevils]

#getDUKEoutofALBANY

 

[triaddukefan]

#getDUKEoutofALBANY

I was complaining last year after the selection show about Duke being in the Lincoln Region, and they didnt even make it out of Durham

 

[DobbsRover2]

Some teams maybe have seen UConn a bit in the Tourney in recent years.

Not sure how far back the committee keeps the available records for consideration of which team have been put in brackets together. Going back over six years no team has been with UConn as one of the top 4 seeds more than once, with Kentucky, Duke, Texas A&M, and Florida State, all getting that honor twice. Of the likely potential 2-4 seeds, Kentucky definitely deserves a break from UConn as it not only got assigned as the #2 back-to-back in 2012 and 2013 but also ended up meeting and losing to the Huskies in the regional final. Duke is next up on teams needing a break as they were put in as the #2 seed in 2011 and 2014, though only faced UConn in the regional final in 2011 after losing to DePaul last year in the second round. FSU did end up playing UConn in the third round game back in 2010. Arizona State played UConn last year of course.

Though not in UConn's region in the last 6 years, Stanford has seen UConn three times in the FF, Louisville has had two meetings, and Baylor once.

So among the current Creme #2 seeds, UTenn is the one that hasn't seen UConn recently, and among the #3 seeds it would be Oregon State and Iowa.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

All I hope is that USC is in the Greensboro Regional this year. After long trips each of the last 3 years, it's about time our fans get a reasonable trip, and the team gets to play in front of more than a handful of our fans.

 

[rvwsleep]

With this "logic", Maryland would have to play an "away" game to get to the Final Four, and the top #2 seed would be paired with the top #1 seed. Tennessee earned the right to play the lowest #4, if they are set as a #2 seed, due to their RPI/SOS/Top 10 & 50 wins.

Baylor should be moved to Greensboro with Notre Dame/South Carolina, and Oregon State should be in OKC with South Carolina/Notre Dame. Florida State should be in Albany with UConn. This would make all Regional Finals take place on a neutral court.

The NCAA knows that Tennessee travels well no matter what, so they shouldn't be worried about fans being in Spokane. There will be plenty.

If the team sent to Albany had the resume that Tennessee has, and they weren't named Tennessee, many UConn fans would not be happy with the top #2 seed being sent to their regional.

There are some UConn fans that wouldn't be happy playing Tennessee, though I would love to see it. Tell me, what do you think the reaction would be from the Tennessee fans if they were put in the same region as UConn ?

 

[j66kicker]

There are some UConn fans that wouldn't be happy playing Tennessee, though I would love to see it. Tell me, what do you think the reaction would be from the Tennessee fans if they were put in the same region as UConn ?

Surely some would feel there's yet another conspiracy to keep them from getting back what's rightfully theirs (which is oxymoronic, since if the NC was rightfully theirs, then they wouldn't have to worry about playing UCONN, or anyone else).

 

[mrmojack]

All I hope is that USC is in the Greensboro Regional this year. After long trips each of the last 3 years, it's about time our fans get a reasonable trip, and the team gets to play in front of more than a handful of our fans.

I'm sure you will. This is all about making money and your fans have given the team
unbelievable support this yr.

 

[mtsuraider06]

There are some UConn fans that wouldn't be happy playing Tennessee, though I would love to see it. Tell me, what do you think the reaction would be from the Tennessee fans if they were put in the same region as UConn ?

Most TN fans wouldn't like it. Many because they feel they would lose, but with the schedule, RPI, & wins we have this year, TN shouldn't have to play UConn until the final four. It's honestly not fair to Tennessee.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

True, but when has anything about the NCAA tourney been fair?

 

[hoophuskee]

It would be a disgrace and an insult to both UCONN and Tenn if they were put in the same region. It's not fair to both teams even though UCONN would be heavily favored. And Maryland getting Lousiville as a 2 seed is so laughable. If UCONN and Tenn wind up in the same region then you know you have incompetency running wild.

Anyhow, I'm pumped to see Tulane on the brackets - though everything would have to break right for them. What we'd like to see is Tulane and USF get in there. Then next year or two get a 4th team then a 5th team. THAT's what the UCONN women did for the Big East. Let's see what UCONN can build and take away from the other conferences.

 

[SportsPageMike]

So according to his Bracket Tennessee is the fourth #2 seed and Florida State is better. I'm sorry but I don't think so.

 

[baylorprof]

If it's all about returning to a more reasonable decision process in which CROWDS will show up on TV screens (which is spelled M O N E Y), then explain to me again how and why as a 2 (granted #2's don't gave the gravitas that #1's do)we have to fly halfway across the northern continent to get to Greensboro when most of our Houston/Dallas fan base can drive to OKC, all the while waving to SC fans as they head to OKC as a #1 seed.

We all know that the "super-secret" rules will be broken--you know, those that no one could explain when the midseason top 20 was announced, especially our own Big 12 Associate Commissioner "Dru" Hancock was made an absolute fool on national television.

I thought the prevailing logic this year was to go back to regional sites and team seedings that would MAKE MONEY and ATTRACT CROWDS which our women's game desperately needs beyond about 10-15 programs.

I almost wish Baylor would slip down to a #3 so it would be easier to slide them up / down whereveer they need to go to end up in OKC. But then, that would be too logical.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

If it's all about returning to a more reasonable decision process in which CROWDS will show up on TV screens (which is spelled M O N E Y), then explain to me again how and why as a 2 (granted #2's don't gave the gravitas that #1's do)we have to fly halfway across the northern continent to get to Greensboro when most of our Houston/Dallas fan base can drive to OKC, all the while waving to SC fans as they head to OKC as a #1 seed.

We all know that the "super-secret" rules will be broken--you know, those that no one could explain when the midseason top 20 was announced, especially our own Big 12 Associate Commissioner "Dru" Hancock was made an absolute fool on national television.

I thought the prevailing logic this year was to go back to regional sites and team seedings that would MAKE MONEY and ATTRACT CROWDS which our women's game desperately needs beyond about 10-15 programs.

I almost wish Baylor would slip down to a #3 so it would be easier to slide them up / down whereveer they need to go to end up in OKC. But then, that would be too logical.

Of course that's what makes sense. I would be seriously disappointed with OKC. It would cost a fortune to fly to OKC from Columbia last minute. Maybe DFW would be a lot cheaper. It's probably a little far to drive. It wouldn't make that much difference to ND if they went to OKC instead of GSO. Most ND fans probably don't live in South Bend, anyway.