Charlie Creme says no team is guaranteed a #1 seed | The Boneyard

Charlie Creme says no team is guaranteed a #1 seed

I mean he’s technically right but even with a loss at Louisville (which I don’t see because Louisville is a 1 trick pony without good size) highly unlikely UConn isn’t #1 seed. Too many of the other top teams have tough conference to get through & UConn will have the most impressive win of anyone with a 19 point win on the road at ND.
 
For sure this is the case. If UConn doesn't beat Louisville, it will have only its win over Notre Dame to hang its hat on. Beating South Carolina and UCF won't do much to beef up the resume.
 
Baylor has a tough conference to get through? Based on previous seasons and a pretty good team this season, what tough teams are in the BIG 12?
Just curious...I thought that they were pretty much assumed to be the champions.
 
shiverz45 said:
Warren Nolan predicted RPI has UCONN finishing 12th with a 29-1 record. It has UCONN with only 4 top 50 wins and Notre Dame with 15. UConn will need the teams they beat and play to finish better than what is projected including SC (60).

Predicted Nitty Gritty Report for 2018-2019 NCAA Women's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com
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I checked that out.... kept scrolling down looking for Duke....... and kept scrolling...... and more scrolling ..... lawd hammercy..... scrolled some more



shame.gif
 
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Don't think the #1 seed matters much unless UCONN get put outside the Albany region which would be absolutely stupid. UCONN had the 4 toughest OOC ? schedule this year, it is being in the AAC that would justify what Charlie is suggesting as a possibility.

"For the first time since joining the conference, playing in the American would hurt the Huskies with regard to the seeding process."
 
Centerstream said:
Baylor has a tough conference to get through? Based on previous seasons and a pretty good team this season, what tough teams are in the BIG 12?
Just curious...I thought that they were pretty much assumed to be the champions.
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I think a lot of them are less bad as they were last year, but still not top 25. Iowa State is my pick for no.2. I think they are/can be better than Texas. Although, down year for Texas compared to last few.
 
shiverz45 said:
Warren Nolan predicted RPI has UCONN finishing 12th with a 29-1 record. It has UCONN with only 4 top 50 wins and Notre Dame with 15. UConn will need the teams they beat and play to finish better than what is projected including SC (60).

Predicted Nitty Gritty Report for 2018-2019 NCAA Women's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com
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WOW! This site has Oregon finishing the PAC-12 season without a loss! If that happens, then UO would be a favorite to win the National Championship. Not putting any money down on Oregon having a perfect 18-0 record in the PAC-12 this year.
 
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LoTrader said:
WOW! This site has Oregon finishing the PAC-12 season without a loss! If that happens, then UO would be a favorite to win the National Championship. Not putting any money down on Oregon having a perfect 18-0 record in the PAC-12 this year.
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Oh wow. That predictive model lost all credibility. Oregon isn't running the table.

Holy cow! He's got Stanford and Oregon St. both at 14-4, Arizona St. and Arizona both at 12-6, Utah at 13-5. Somebody is gonna have to absorb a bunch of losses in conference to balance all that out. This is just silly.
 
DallasBUFan said:
I think a lot of them are less bad as they were last year, but still not top 25. Iowa State is my pick for no.2. I think they are/can be better than Texas. Although, down year for Texas compared to last few.
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Agreed. With teams like Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma having down years, Iowa State is quietly looking like the 2nd-best team in the conference. Currently ranked #12 in Massey.
 
nwhoopfan said:
Oh wow. That predictive model lost all credibility. Oregon isn't running the table.

Holy cow! He's got Stanford and Oregon St. both at 14-4, Arizona St. and Arizona both at 12-6, Utah at 13-5. Somebody is gonna have to absorb a bunch of losses in conference to balance all that out. This is just silly.
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It's a computer model. Whichever team has the highest rating in the conference is of course gonna be projected to win all its games *unless* the model has a notable impact for being at home.
 
I feel safe in saying the final Pac 12 standings will look nothing like that. More losses for top 6, more wins for 7-10. Maybe 11 and 12 are close, but both showed over the weekend you can't sleepwalk against them.
 
Plebe said:
For sure this is the case. If UConn doesn't beat Louisville, it will have only its win over Notre Dame to hang its hat on. Beating South Carolina and UCF won't do much to beef up the resume.
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If Louisville isn't big as the poster above has stated; I like Uconn's chances there. With Coombs adding some relief minutes for CW, Danger (maybe), Walker (maybe) and Touly and Irwin adding some physical beings in the post, Uconn could (repeat could) look really good in that game.
However, it appears the NCAA is headed for jousting for position (seeding) in April/Mar
 
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So: what's really going on here? Is everyone excited because UConn may have drifted down to the quality of other contendas or because the contendas have better teams than usual? It doesn't seem encouraging that the Huskies have to come back to the pack to make things fun again. Should we be enthused about a parity that comes from mediocrity? I'd be wary before I did a jig about UConn's purported demise being (gasp) GOOD for wccb.
 
Creme is an Idiot. Most other people that follow WCBB could do better. It appears he has the Pac 12 locked into just 6 teams. He has the SEC now at 8. How can you have the arguably best conference in the country locked into just 6 picks when most objective people would have their middle teams group as the strongest of all the conferences. I suppose he will continue to have the Pack 12 teams jockeying for those 6 slots. While the SEC is locked into their 7 or 8 slots. How can he justify adding and already extra slot to an already over represented league when they are like everyone else playing themselves. I didn't see them knocking off an out of conference power team this last week.
 
willtalk said:
Creme is an Idiot. Most other people that follow WCBB could do better. It appears he has the Pac 12 locked into just 6 teams. He has the SEC now at 8. How can you have the arguably best conference in the country locked into just 6 picks when most objective people would have their middle teams group as the strongest of all the conferences. I suppose he will continue to have the Pack 12 teams jockeying for those 6 slots. While the SEC is locked into their 7 or 8 slots. How can he justify adding and already extra slot to an already over represented league when they are like everyone else playing themselves. I didn't see them knocking off an out of conference power team this last week.
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Teams earn bids, not conferences.

He has the PAC with 6 teams but 5 are very highly seeded -- 2, 2, 3, 5, 5 -- and two more teams are in his first 4 out, so they could easily move in.
 
willtalk said:
Creme is an Idiot. Most other people that follow WCBB could do better. It appears he has the Pac 12 locked into just 6 teams. He has the SEC now at 8. How can you have the arguably best conference in the country locked into just 6 picks when most objective people would have their middle teams group as the strongest of all the conferences. I suppose he will continue to have the Pack 12 teams jockeying for those 6 slots. While the SEC is locked into their 7 or 8 slots. How can he justify adding and already extra slot to an already over represented league when they are like everyone else playing themselves. I didn't see them knocking off an out of conference power team this last week.
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You may not agree with him, but Creme is definitely not an idiot. We're lucky to have someone who is dedicated to researching all of this and providing some solid analysis as the year unfolds vs sites like Sporting News where they come up with garbage preseason lists and polls.
 
willtalk said:
Creme is an Idiot. Most other people that follow WCBB could do better. It appears he has the Pac 12 locked into just 6 teams. He has the SEC now at 8. How can you have the arguably best conference in the country locked into just 6 picks when most objective people would have their middle teams group as the strongest of all the conferences. I suppose he will continue to have the Pack 12 teams jockeying for those 6 slots. While the SEC is locked into their 7 or 8 slots. How can he justify adding and already extra slot to an already over represented league when they are like everyone else playing themselves. I didn't see them knocking off an out of conference power team this last week.
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I question a bunch of his choices, but I'm not sure that he's an idiot. Just understanding all the bracketing rules well enough to propose a plausible bracket takes at least a modicum of intelligence. I think right now he really lacks sufficient data to build a reasonable bracket. Teams that play a bunch of no-names in their OOC schedules make it difficult for analysts to assess their viability as NCAA at-large bids.

Take Utah, for example. They are 13-1 but were undefeated in their OOC, playing only 1 team ranked in the top 100 by Massey (BYU 64th). Their OOC RPI is 86th and their OOC SOS is 328th. I think it's very reasonable that they are the first team out in Charlie's Bracketology. They will have to make their case in the conference portion of their schedule.

Arizona was also left off (missing inclusion by only 4 spots. Their highest ranked OOC opponent (by Massey) was 119th (Loyola Marymount, to whom they lost). OOC RPI: 116, OOC SOS: 302nd.

From the ACC,

VTech is a 9-seed. Massey top 100 ranked OOC opponents: Rutgers (26), Villanova (60), Dayton (76) OOC RPI: 46th, OOC SOS 264th

NC State is a 2-seed! Massey top 100 ranked OOC opponents: Mich St. (25), Michigan (39), Belmont (80), Georgetown (89) OOC RPI: 9, OOC SOS 58th
 
1 or 2 seed, UCONN will be going to Albany which creates a nightmare matchup for whoever is their opposing 1 or 2. No other potential #1 seed will have Albany as a strongly desired location based on geographic preference to push ahead of UCONN if UCONN is a 1. If UCONN is a 2, I'm pretty sure they go by geographic location rather than S curve, so theyll get Albany over any other 2 seed.
 
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bballnut90 said:
1 or 2 seed, UCONN will be going to Albany which creates a nightmare matchup for whoever is their opposing 1 or 2. No other potential #1 seed will have Albany as a strongly desired location based on geographic preference to push ahead of UCONN if UCONN is a 1. If UCONN is a 2, I'm pretty sure they go by geographic location rather than S curve, so theyll get Albany over any other 2 seed.
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Syracuse has an outside shot at grabbing a 2 seed, if they do really well in the ACC (beating NC State, for example). Charlie has them as a 3 right now.
 
Plebe said:
Syracuse has an outside shot at grabbing a 2 seed, if they do really well in the ACC (beating NC State, for example). Charlie has them as a 3 right now.
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True...but I cant see them finishing ahead of UCONN if UCONN finishes with 2 losses. Syracuse would have to beat Louisville/Notre Dame twice out of 3 or 4 tries (including ACC tourney) and finish ACC play with just 1-2 losses to have a chance.

Whether it is fair or not, the committee likely also
recognizes that Albany will get a strong draw with UCONN but stands will be empty if Huskies are shipped elsewhere. I just dont see a realistic scenario where UCONN doesnt end up in Albany, but obviously a lot can happen.
 
There are a lot of scenarios. I am very interested to see how the PAC 12 shakes out. I don't see any SEC team being a 1 seed. I think ND has the clearest path if they beat Louisville, which I expect. Baylor will probably be there too. I'm most interested in seeing who emerges from the PAC 12.
 
huskyd said:
So: what's really going on here? Is everyone excited because UConn may have drifted down to the quality of other contendas or because the contendas have better teams than usual? It doesn't seem encouraging that the Huskies have to come back to the pack to make things fun again. Should we be enthused about a parity that comes from mediocrity? I'd be wary before I did a jig about UConn's purported demise being (gasp) GOOD for wccb.
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I have been thinking about this nonstop. I try to stay positive because I know the first mention of “UConn isn’t doing this well” gets you labeled as negative, harsh, and unrealistic around here. I don’t care if UConn loses every game they play, as long as it’s because they lose to teams that are astoundingly great; not just “better” than UConn. If UConn plays fantastically and the other team outplays them anyway then I will be happy to accept it, but if they lose because they’ve returned to the land of mediocrity then I will be upset.
 
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