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Message: [QUOTE="pepband99, post: 4725758, member: 79"] Err, Bill Connelly's rankings have nothing whatsoever to do with perception? You join [USER=50]@Waquoit[/USER] in "hating" KenPom, I guess. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.ourdailybears.com/baylor-bears-football/2022/8/1/23271366/predictive-statistics-in-cfb-primer[/URL] SP+ SP+, originally called S&P+ for Success rate & equivalent Points per play, was created by Bill Connelly in 2005. [B]SP+ uses play-by-play data to evaluate teams on five factors that Connelly identified as being highly correlated with winning: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. The overall SP+ rating is a weighted average of the five factors.[/B] Efficiency is based on a team’s success rate, which measures how well a team gains the yards they need for a first down or touchdown. On first downs, a “successful” play is one that earns at least 50% of the needed yards. On second downs, a successful play earns 70% of the needed yards. On third and fourth downs, a successful play earns 100% of the needed yards. Explosiveness is based on a team’s equivalent points per play (PPP). PPP is the yards earned per play converted to expected points from those yards. Field position is just the average field position margin between teams, finishing drives are the percent of trips inside the 40 yard line that yield points, and turnovers are...turnovers. SP+ uses historical performance, recruiting, and returning production to generate pre-season ratings. These factors are gradually phased out of the SP+ formula as the season progresses. SP+ is reported as expected points per game against an average opponents on a neutral field. Baylor’s 2021 team ended the season with an SP+ rating of 15.6 (15th in the country), so SP+ predicts they would beat an average opponent at a neutral site by 15.6 points. [/QUOTE]

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