Caroline Doty—UConn’s Shane Battier | The Boneyard

Caroline Doty—UConn’s Shane Battier

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Papa33

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I’ll get to Caroline in a moment, some things I’ve been considering for the last year, especially after reading UConn fans’ doubts about her play on the Boneyard and elsewhere, But first . . . Almost everyone agrees that Geno is a great coach in a hundred different ways. I’ve particularly admired what he’s done with a thin bench in some seasons, and even more when the talent was thin after Diana left. But I most admire his insights into players’ contributions to UConn basketball when the stat sheets don’t seem to support him. His recent rebuttal to those who have doubted his sagacity for starting CD and sticking with her made particular sense.

“Someone created the box score, and he should be shot.” Thus said Daryl Morey, who applied the Moneyball statistical principles and game analysis of Bill James to basketball, and found them epitomized in Shane Battier, whose box score stats are dismal. But, according to Morey, Battier does things that don’t make the box score categories: he makes his teammates better defenders and better scorers when he’s on the court. Bottom line, he makes his team 6 points better than their opponents when he’s on the floor.

Now, when Diana Taurasi’s scoring stats declined in some games during the 2002-2004 seasons while making her UConn teammates better, no one felt she had lost her value to the team. (This was the same Taurasi who helped sink UConn in a Final Four game vs. Notre Dame by shooting 1-15. There’s hope yet, Breanna!) Geno seems to think fans might find the same sort of value in Caroline’s play. Who knows how she might have lit up the box scores with two healthy knees. Instead, she’s put grit and competitive fire and smarts to work to become our version of Shane Battier.

Take her performance in the disappointing loss to Notre Dame. Zilch, right? No points, only one assist, one rebound. But wait, look at the 6 ½ minutes she played starting the second half: during that time, the UConn offense looked its best, with well-timed cuts, several layups and short jumpers, and they outscored ND by 7 points. By Morey’s rating system, she was a +7. (He says a +6 “is huge.”) She also blocked a shot and allowed UConn to keep possession by firing the ball at a ND player out of bounds. A possession later, unable to get a rebound herself, she punched the ball directly to a teammate. Those moments to her team’s advantage do not show up under her name, but her coaches see them. That’s why she’s on the floor as much as she is, and Geno has said as much. I don’t think he’s delusional.

I coached high school basketball for thirty years, twenty-two of them with a girl’s team, and I treasured players who, like Caroline, didn’t fill up the score book or get headlines. So good luck, CD. I hope to see you out on the floor as much as possible, making your teammates and your team better.
 

bruinbball

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On the typical +\- system, UConn was +6 with Caroline in during the entire game.
 

Olde Coach

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I’ll get to Caroline in a moment, some things I’ve been considering for the last year, especially after reading UConn fans’ doubts about her play on the Boneyard and elsewhere, But first . . . Almost everyone agrees that Geno is a great coach in a hundred different ways. I’ve particularly admired what he’s done with a thin bench in some seasons, and even more when the talent was thin after Diana left. But I most admire his insights into players’ contributions to UConn basketball when the stat sheets don’t seem to support him. His recent rebuttal to those who have doubted his sagacity for starting CD and sticking with her made particular sense.

“Someone created the box score, and he should be shot.” Thus said Daryl Morey, who applied the Moneyball statistical principles and game analysis of Bill James to basketball, and found them epitomized in Shane Battier, whose box score stats are dismal. But, according to Morey, Battier does things that don’t make the box score categories: he makes his teammates better defenders and better scorers when he’s on the court. Bottom line, he makes his team 6 points better than their opponents when he’s on the floor.

Now, when Diana Taurasi’s scoring stats declined in some games during the 2002-2004 seasons while making her UConn teammates better, no one felt she had lost her value to the team. (This was the same Taurasi who helped sink UConn in a Final Four game vs. Notre Dame by shooting 1-15. There’s hope yet, Breanna!) Geno seems to think fans might find the same sort of value in Caroline’s play. Who knows how she might have lit up the box scores with two healthy knees. Instead, she’s put grit and competitive fire and smarts to work to become our version of Shane Battier.

Take her performance in the disappointing loss to Notre Dame. Zilch, right? No points, only one assist, one rebound. But wait, look at the 6 ½ minutes she played starting the second half: during that time, the UConn offense looked its best, with well-timed cuts, several layups and short jumpers, and they outscored ND by 7 points. By Morey’s rating system, she was a +7. (He says a +6 “is huge.”) She also blocked a shot and allowed UConn to keep possession by firing the ball at a ND player out of bounds. A possession later, unable to get a rebound herself, she punched the ball directly to a teammate. Those moments to her team’s advantage do not show up under her name, but her coaches see them. That’s why she’s on the floor as much as she is, and Geno has said as much. I don’t think he’s delusional.

I coached high school basketball for thirty years, twenty-two of them with a girl’s team, and I treasured players who, like Caroline, didn’t fill up the score book or get headlines. So good luck, CD. I hope to see you out on the floor as much as possible, making your teammates and your team better.

+6 Papa. That is a great analysis of what CD contributes for her team.

Caroline was a very gifted 3 sport athlete in high school.

I cry, every time I think of her being cut down in her first soccer game as a senior.
 

Icebear

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Thanks, papa, for listing out what I see Caroline doing all the time. It's a level deeper than most fans see.
 

msf22b

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Great Post Papa

I mentioned this stretch in a couple of posts as well, albeit not as scientifically as did you.
It was the one time in the game that the team played with composure and offensive discipline, ran plays , disrupted ND's and looked clearly superior.

The wheels started coming off when KLM was injured.

There was a wonderful symmetry to the offense during that segment (without the benefit of replay) I recall cuts to the basket, good entry passes and the threat of KLM's outside shots making defensive choices meager.

If the entire group learns (relearns) to play that way and especially if one of the other guards can step up to run the team in a like manner, then we will be, perhaps unbeatable.

MoJeff seems the likely candidate to fill the Caroline role with Ms Banks becoming the Diggins style slasher.
Some wonderful film to use as a teaching tool.
 

RadyLady

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well done Papa, and I concur. The smoothness of UConn's play when Caroline is on the floor is obvious. Her gifts to the team are priceless, even though her own physical gifts have been a challenge to her.
 

Phil

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It is a reference to Shane's NBA career, I remember reading that article some time ago.
 
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well done Papa, and I concur. The smoothness of UConn's play when Caroline is on the floor is obvious. Her gifts to the team are priceless, even though her own physical gifts have been a challenge to her.

I also agree that we play better when Caroline is the point guard. Both because of her ability and because Bria is uncomfortable and awkward playing the point. Bria had a weak game aginst ND. Jefferson is still too inexperienced and Banks is probably best at the off guard. It will be interesting to see how Geno solves this problem.
 

CL82

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Doty is a competitor. You have to wonder what her career would have been like if she had stayed healthy. Even with the reduced speed and mobility her injury cost her, she still is an important contributor to the team. She's one of those kids that you can't help but root for. I wonder if she'll end up coaching.
 

CamrnCrz1974

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It is a reference to Shane's NBA career, I remember reading that article some time ago.

The New York Times: The No-Stats All Star

Statistical Anomaly. His greatness is not marked in box scores or at slam-dunk contests, but on the court Shane Battier makes his team better, often much better, and his opponents worse, often much worse.

By Michael Lewis
Published: February 13, 2009
 
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Everyone loves Caroline, and I'm always pulling for her. But I wonder if sentiment is clouding our opinion of her as a player. Fact is, she doesn't play well against tough competition. She was scoreless against Stamford, and she's been scoreless against Notre Dame the last three times we played them. That's not Shane Battierisk.
 
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The Chicago Bulls have a similar player to Caroline Doty starting at point guard, Kirk Hinrich. His statistics are completely unremarkable. He rarely shoots and is streaky when he does. His backup is capable of huge scoring bursts and exciting athletic plays and his statistics are much more impressive. A huge portion of the Chicago Bulls fan base truly despises him because they believe he is undeserving of his position on team and only there because of favoritism by management. And yet if you're willing to watch closely you will realize the team just functions better overall with Hinrich on the floor both offensively and defensively. He really understands what is trying to be accomplished on both sides of the ball and does countless little things that help his teammates. Now there are times where the Bulls do really need an exciting scoring explosion from the backup, but on the whole Hinrich makes the team function better, especially when the margin for error is slim and you need all of those little things that don't show up in box score.
 
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It is absolutely how Shane Battier has played in the NBA for the last decade.
Everyone loves Caroline, and I'm always pulling for her. But I wonder if sentiment is clouding our opinion of her as a player. Fact is, she doesn't play well against tough competition. She was scoreless against Stamford, and she's been scoreless against Notre Dame the last three times we played them. That's not Shane Battierisk.
 

Icebear

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Everyone loves Caroline, and I'm always pulling for her. But I wonder if sentiment is clouding our opinion of her as a player. Fact is, she doesn't play well against tough competition. She was scoreless against Stamford, and she's been scoreless against Notre Dame the last three times we played them. That's not Shane Battierisk.
It isn't about her scoring its about the offense running better so that others are scoring and the team running smoother overall. UConn was +6 while she was on the court.

BTW, lay off Battier. He is a good Lutheran kid.
 

Papa33

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Everyone loves Caroline, and I'm always pulling for her. But I wonder if sentiment is clouding our opinion of her as a player. Fact is, she doesn't play well against tough competition. She was scoreless against Stamford, and she's been scoreless against Notre Dame the last three times we played them. That's not Shane Battierisk.

In fact, that is exactly the Battier effect! Read the article that CrmnCrz provided the link for. Example, shot goes up from opponent, Battier would look for the most dangerous rebounder on that team and box him out, even if it meant leaving his own man. He often blocked out that man so a teammate got the rebound. No stat for that. Measure the player's effect on the score while on the floor, and look for the subtle but powerful differences the player makes. When I was coaching, sentiment did not get in the way of playing to win, even at the modest level of competition I was working at.
 

wire chief

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The Chicago Bulls have a similar player to Caroline Doty starting at point guard, Kirk Hinrich. His statistics are completely unremarkable. He rarely shoots and is streaky when he does. His backup is capable of huge scoring bursts and exciting athletic plays and his statistics are much more impressive. A huge portion of the Chicago Bulls fan base truly despises him because they believe he is undeserving of his position on team and only there because of favoritism by management. And yet if you're willing to watch closely you will realize the team just functions better overall with Hinrich on the floor both offensively and defensively. He really understands what is trying to be accomplished on both sides of the ball and does countless little things that help his teammates. Now there are times where the Bulls do really need an exciting scoring explosion from the backup, but on the whole Hinrich makes the team function better, especially when the margin for error is slim and you need all of those little things that don't show up in box score.

I think Auerbach saw K C Jones similarly.
 
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For a single close game, +6 is good though not monstrous. (averaged over a season in the NBA is different - that's much more huge)

It does make me curious, though - I'd love to know what all the +/- for both teams were in this game. It's a shame those stats aren't provided for college like they are for the pros. Theoretically it's possible to do it manually if you have the record of substitutions, but what a pain. :-D
 

Icebear

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For a single close game, +6 is good though not monstrous. (averaged over a season in the NBA is different - that's much more huge)

It does make me curious, though - I'd love to know what all the +/- for both teams were in this game. It's a shame those stats aren't provided for college like they are for the pros. Theoretically it's possible to do it manually if you have the record of substitutions, but what a pain. :-D

No one said it was monstrous but in a game lost by a point it is a very positive stat.
 
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It's really bizarre how polarizing Doty has become on this board.

First off, I'm not sure how any UConn fan cannot appreciate Doty - she gives everything she has every time she's out there, which is remarkable for someone who's suffered so many devastating injuries.

However, Doty isn't this basketball savant that some people on here make her out to be. She does do a great job controlling the tempo and has an uncanny ability to hit big shots, but the Doty apologists on here conveniently like to look over some of her deficiencies (notably, she had three defensive lapses against ND that led to layups).

With all that said, Doty is a solid rotation player who should be in at the end of games when UConn goes small. It's just strange to me that discussions about the sixth/seventh best player on the team seem to consistently reach 50+ posts.
 
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