Can WBB teams catch up to UConn or S Carolina in a changing era?

[BRS24]

Can women’s basketball teams catch up to UConn or South Carolina in a changing era?

Big money deals and unprecedented transfer rates. How are coaches navigating the new era and what's to come?

www.nytimes.com

“Coaches are questioning, obviously: Is it even worth it to be in this business? What are we doing? What are we doing if we can’t build a program and you’re starting from scratch every year to build a team without any rules around it?” one power conference coach said. “What are we doing? And why are we doing it?”​

​

“I have to change. I have to pivot and plan for 50 percent attrition,” another power conference coach added. “Time will tell if you can build a program (in this era). If I can’t build a program, I’m not going to be doing it very long.”​

​

“If I can keep the kid for two years,” one said, “I feel like I’ve won the lottery.”​

​

This attrition has had a ripple effect on how college coaches prioritize high school recruiting. Many staff chose not to send multiple (or any) coaches on the road this offseason for the first high school recruiting evaluation period, valuing hosting immediate impact players over seeing talent who wouldn’t be on campus for a few years.​

​

That signals a significant shift in the overall recruiting philosophy. Five years ago, the lifeblood of almost every program was high school recruiting. Now, the portal offers another option. Multiple coaches said that their focus on high school recruits has decreased from 95-100 percent of their recruiting efforts to somewhere between 50-70 percent. Nearly 80 power conference freshmen transferred this offseason, so coaches also realize that bringing in a freshman doesn’t necessarily mean stability.​

 

[Dogdude]

Lots to unpack here, and more than just the instability of a college roster. If that amount of NIL money is being tossed out, playing in the WNBA seems like a bit of a step down for the best players. If the W is still losing money, how long will that survive? Supporters throw gobs of money at college programs, but can't care less about the W. The kids coming out of high school are basically unrestricted free agents every year, a situation far superior to the contracts offered by the W unless, and here's where it might get interesting, is if the schools are able to sign the kids to contracts, now that they're essentially employed, even if an independent contractor status. It will be interesting until the smaller schools employ AI robot coaches to save money...

 

[iri10]

Narratives can change on a dime, I guess. For UConn, prior to last year there were at least some wondering if they would ever win another national championship again.

 

[Bone Dog]

Two things really leapt out at me in this story: 1) tampering and 2) consequences for the W.

In a thread on Cori Close’s interview a few weeks ago, she mentioned that players and their parents are constantly being urged to consider transferring by agents, not so much by rival coaches — though this may be a distinction without a difference. Coaches could be sanctioned for this behavior, but can agents? Contracts may be coming soon, and maybe they’ll change this dynamic. And with them we may also see strikes. Unions and contracts may eliminate the need for a portal. The union and its attorneys would probably manage all such things on an ad hoc basis.

As for the W, it’s a business, which means it has to respond to situations like this or perish. It is by no means clear that the economics of the league can afford to match the economics of what college has become. One aspect of the game that may change is a growing focus on marketability of its product. We may not like the idea of regulating it, but the league may have to consider adjusting how refs control the game so as to make it less of a brawlers league. It also can’t afford to allow its most marketable players be unavailable do to hard fouls that produce injuries. It may also start tinkering with limiting tattoos and similar aesthetic elements. It has a product to sell and whether we like it or not, to expand its market it has to appeal to broader tastes. We can complain that the MNBA doesn’t think about regulating how players look. But the economics of that league is expansive enough not to require it.

As a college professor I can’t help but see unionization of students as a threat to the classroom.

 

[visitingcock]

One might also ask: “Can UConn and SCar stay at the top in a changing era?” Will a handful of young Turks like Kim Caldwell and Mark Campbell develop the new formulae for success in this changing NIL world?

Personally, I am dubious about the amounts alleged by these anonymous coaches

 

[oldude]

The transfer portal is about to change significantly, with far fewer players changing schools every year. The recently approved NCAA settlement allows schools to sign multi-year contracts with athletes. While such contracts will not necessarily bind an athlete to a school, buyout provisions in those contracts will provide financial penalties for athletes who opt out.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Can women’s basketball teams catch up to UConn or South Carolina in a changing era?

Big money deals and unprecedented transfer rates. How are coaches navigating the new era and what's to come?

www.nytimes.com

“Coaches are questioning, obviously: Is it even worth it to be in this business? What are we doing? What are we doing if we can’t build a program and you’re starting from scratch every year to build a team without any rules around it?” one power conference coach said. “What are we doing? And why are we doing it?”​

​

“I have to change. I have to pivot and plan for 50 percent attrition,” another power conference coach added. “Time will tell if you can build a program (in this era). If I can’t build a program, I’m not going to be doing it very long.”​

​

“If I can keep the kid for two years,” one said, “I feel like I’ve won the lottery.”​

​

This attrition has had a ripple effect on how college coaches prioritize high school recruiting. Many staff chose not to send multiple (or any) coaches on the road this offseason for the first high school recruiting evaluation period, valuing hosting immediate impact players over seeing talent who wouldn’t be on campus for a few years.​

​

That signals a significant shift in the overall recruiting philosophy. Five years ago, the lifeblood of almost every program was high school recruiting. Now, the portal offers another option. Multiple coaches said that their focus on high school recruits has decreased from 95-100 percent of their recruiting efforts to somewhere between 50-70 percent. Nearly 80 power conference freshmen transferred this offseason, so coaches also realize that bringing in a freshman doesn’t necessarily mean stability.​

There's a little devil in me that takes glee in almost 80% of power conference freshman transferring, but if ever there was a statistic that said things are out of wack it's this one. I was gobsmacked when the tourney ended and Close's 4 freshman opted to boogey. Coach of the year didn't have here ear to the ground inside her own gym? Coaching is now a different animal for sure.

 

[visitingcock]

One of the first things you learn in law school.

Contracts are made to be broken.

 

[visitingcock]

Why would a player in the SEC want to join a union with players from 300 schools who have no money? Why would a Juju want to join a union?

 

[visitingcock]

The transfer portal is about to change significantly, with far fewer players changing schools every year. The recently approved NCAA settlement allows schools to sign multi-year contracts with athletes. While such contracts will not necessarily bind an athlete to a school, buyout provisions in those contracts will provide financial penalties for athletes who opt out.

“Penalties” are not allowed in contracts.

 

[oldude]

One of the first things you learn in law school.

Contracts are made to be broken.

Are you suggesting that a group of 19-20 year old kids are going to hire lawyers to take on the buyout clauses of the contracts that they and their parents signed willingly with major universities? That should be a lot of fun……

 

[visitingcock]

Are you suggesting that a group of 19-20 year old kids are going to hire lawyers to take on the buyout clauses of the contracts that they and their parents signed willingly with major universities? That should be a lot of fun……

One that can transfer and get a million dollars rather than the 100k she presently gets? Uh , yeah.

Speaking of groups . . . Union lawyers are ver picking on contract clauses.

 

[oldude]

“Penalties” are not allowed in contracts.

A buyout is not a penalty. It’s an agreed to compensation schedule for services rendered, or not. Schools can set up their compensation payouts to coincide with a player returning for another year, i.e. a player gets 60-70% of their money through the course of the academic year and then another 30-40% when they show up for summer practice.

Call it a bonus if you want. But such agreements have been part of American contract law forever.

 

[Bone Dog]

Why would a player in the SEC want to join a union with players from 300 schools who have no money? Why would a Juju want to join a union?

Would Juju necessarily have a choice, once USC is a union shop?

 

[visitingcock]

A buyout is not a penalty. It’s an agreed to compensation schedule for services rendered, or not. Schools can set up their compensation payouts to coincide with a player returning for another year, i.e. a player gets 60-70% of their money through the course of the academic year and then another 30-40% when they show up for summer practice.

Call it a bonus if you want. But such agreements have been part of American contract law forever.

Calling something a “buyout” does not save a clause from being a penalty. It has to be treated as permissible liquidated damages which would reasonably foresee monetary damages to the university. That’s hard to reasonably calculate what damages a school would suffer from a player transferring.

 

[visitingcock]

Would Juju necessarily have a choice, once USC is a union shop?

Not if her “ shop” joins a union. But, would her shop join one? Let’s assume they do want to join a union. Does that become a recruiting factor that would cause her to join a team in a right to work state? Remember, these kids have agents in high school!

Big Ten football teams haven’t rushed to join unions. Why would their wbb teams do so?
But see WNBA Players Rip Big Ten, SEC for Refusing to Meet With Players

 

[Bone Dog]

Not if her “ shop” joins a union. But, would her shop join one? Let’s assume they do want to join a union. Does that become a recruiting factor that would cause her to join a team in a right to work state? Remember, these kids have agents in high school!

Over the past several years, there's been a nationwide effort by one of the major Communication-workers unions to organize campuses all across the nation. They're focused on work-study students, but this would easily include student athletes. They came to my campus and caused all sort of turmoil in order to force a vote by the students. Unless the sports program at USC or elsewhere can successfully argue that their athletes are not students, they are likely to be forced to unionize their shop.

 

[oldude]

Calling something a “buyout” does not save a clause from being a penalty. It has to be treated as permissible liquidated damages which would reasonably foresee monetary damages to the university. That’s hard to reasonably calculate what damages a school would suffer from a player transferring.

You are complicating a simple idea. The athlete and the university execute a contract that provides a compensation arrangement which sets up a payout schedule over time. The only requirement is that the athlete has to remain at the university and play ball to receive each respective payment.

Let’s drop the term buyout. Let’s call it a Golden Handcuff, Balloon payment or Bonus that an athlete earns by showing up for summer practice or forfeits if they transfer to another school. The current agreement provides for Universities to pay up to $20.5 million annually however they choose, paying it out to whichever athletes they choose to pay next year. That amount is likely to go up in future years.

If you are Dawn Staley and you have only so much money to use after FB & MBB get their allowance, you’re going to do your best to tie up your core players long term. That doesn’t mean they can’t leave. It simply means that if they do they will be leaving money on the table.

 

[visitingcock]

You are complicating a simple idea. The athlete and the university execute a contract that provides a compensation arrangement which sets up a payout schedule over time. The only requirement is that the athlete has to remain at the university and play ball to receive each respective payment.

Let’s drop the term buyout. Let’s call it a Golden Handcuff, Balloon payment or Bonus that an athlete earns by showing up for summer practice or forfeits if they transfer to another school. The current agreement provides for Universities to pay up to $20.5 million annually however they choose, paying it out to whichever athletes they choose to pay next year. That amount is likely to go up in future years.

If you are Dawn Staley and you have only so much money to use after FB & MBB get their allowance, you’re going to do your best to tie up your core players long term. That doesn’t mean they can’t leave. It simply means that if they do they will be leaving money on the table.

And you are oversimplifying a contract idea. There are many legal concepts that come into play in contracts . Violate them and a contract becomes unenforceable. As I mentioned earlier, high schoolers now have agents ( who have or are lawyers.)

 

[oldude]

And you are oversimplifying a contract idea. There are many legal concepts that come into play in contracts . Violate them and a contract becomes unenforceable. As I mentioned earlier, high schoolers now have agents ( who have or are lawyers.)

And big universities have lawyers who review contracts. Do you believe that universities are going to offer 6-figure payments to freshmen basketball centers & football QB’s that are a year or two away from developing into solid college players only to see them transfer?

 

[CL82]

One might also ask: “Can UConn and SCar stay at the top in a changing era?” Will a handful of young Turks like Kim Caldwell and Mark Campbell develop the new formulae for success in this changing NIL world?

It's a reasonable question. Someone may figure out how to game the new system more effectively than everyone else and get a leg up. That said, teams like Connecticut and South Carolina have innate advantages in that they already have the expertise and infrastructure in place to be successful.

I also believe that the house settlement and NIL seem inherently structured to give an institutional advantage to high resource programs, rather than be structured in such a way as to give lower resource programs and opportunity to compete.

 

[Sifaka]

Can women’s basketball teams catch up to UConn or South Carolina in a changing era?

Big money deals and unprecedented transfer rates. How are coaches navigating the new era and what's to come?

www.nytimes.com

“Coaches are questioning, obviously: Is it even worth it to be in this business? What are we doing? What are we doing if we can’t build a program and you’re starting from scratch every year to build a team without any rules around it?” one power conference coach said. “What are we doing? And why are we doing it?”​

​

“I have to change. I have to pivot and plan for 50 percent attrition,” another power conference coach added. “Time will tell if you can build a program (in this era). If I can’t build a program, I’m not going to be doing it very long.”​

​

“If I can keep the kid for two years,” one said, “I feel like I’ve won the lottery.”​

​

This attrition has had a ripple effect on how college coaches prioritize high school recruiting. Many staff chose not to send multiple (or any) coaches on the road this offseason for the first high school recruiting evaluation period, valuing hosting immediate impact players over seeing talent who wouldn’t be on campus for a few years.​

​

That signals a significant shift in the overall recruiting philosophy. Five years ago, the lifeblood of almost every program was high school recruiting. Now, the portal offers another option. Multiple coaches said that their focus on high school recruits has decreased from 95-100 percent of their recruiting efforts to somewhere between 50-70 percent. Nearly 80 power conference freshmen transferred this offseason, so coaches also realize that bringing in a freshman doesn’t necessarily mean stability.​

This was a fascinating and generally well sourced and written article. However…
it did not address the recruiting practices, at least up to the present, of the two teams at the top of the mountain.

Both So. Car. and UConn have used the portal sparingly and effectively. Both have lost transfers they mostly didn't mind losing. Both have had a habit of keeping and developing students who stay for four years, or more in the Covid era. And, no surprise, both have been consistently at the Final Four or higher level in the NCAA Tournaments.

Will they continue to operate as described above? Will judicial and NCAA monetary opportunism, a.k.a., The Mulkey Style, enable other schools to mount effective challenges to the Auriemma-Staley axis?

Don’t touch that dial! Stay tuned for the next exciting adventures of …

 

[visitingcock]

And big universities have lawyers who review contracts. Do you believe that universities are going to offer 6-figure payments to freshmen basketball centers & football QB’s that are a year or two away from developing into solid college players only to see them transfer?

It has happened in football - seven figures. WBB has not been as transparent as fb ( as forced by thousands of “journalists.”

 

[Sifaka]

“Penalties” are not allowed in contracts.

A penalty by any other name would smell as sweet, or fetid. You are, of course, familiar with so-called “breakup fees” in acquisition agreements. Do what the parties have agreed to do and everyone is happy. Don't do that, and someone pays a large sum, what in common parlance is callled a penalty for non-compliance or failure to perform.

 

[MooseJaw]

Would Juju necessarily have a choice, once USC is a union shop?

Right to work states, will put a nice wrinkle in a scenario such as this for some Univ. Not so much for universities in the country of California. Life as we know it, is no more, not a lot of disrespect to our BY lawyers, but once the lawyers get hands on this, they will milk it for hundreds or thousands of billable hours.
What has become apparent over the last couple of years, we like college sports aren't in Kansas anymore. Sorry Toto.