Can UConn win its next 16 games?

[meyers7]

Next 16 games? Nah. They'll pick up a couple of losses before they get into conference play. It's gonna be an interesting year.

 

[MikeR01950]

UCONN can't win all the time. Let's enjoy this now cause we will never see this type of run again in our life time. Like GENO says very hard to recruit now. The kids are completely different. More talent going to more schools. Winning will become harder and harder now. Do I think UCONN will win another title before GENO and Chris walk away from the game for good? Yes I think so. Do I think UCONN will continue to dominate the game? I do not think so. What happened last night in my opinion was the end of the UCONN dominance. The women's game is catching up and UCONN is most definitely going to hit some growing pains. My guess is they will enter the NCAA tourney with about 4-5 loses. I do feel like they will dominate the AAC just because of the conference there in. Come March they will make a run and like I say anything can happen come tourney time. I do think recruiting will be important especially the following year. But being so dominant can also be a negative thing. Recruits may see it as I'm sick of UCONN always winning I want to go to a program and knock them off. Or recruits might want to keep the dynasty and legacy going. To compete and win on a yearly basis what has UCONN had?? Great players. So recruiting will be the biggest thing that will keep UCONN at the level we are all use to!! But for now let's just enjoy the moment and look for the future later!! Let's just enjoy and appreciate something special that we all may never see again in our life time.

 

[Bestiarius]

I refuse to be disappointed with next year's results. I don't expect any wins. If one should occur, I'll be ecstatic!

 

[Charliebball]

I googled the schedule but couldn't find it.

When I read your list of games, I muttered "Stanford" like Seinfeld muttering Newman.

Does anybody remember when the official schedule usually comes out?

 

[BroadwayVa]

That would take it to 91 in a row breaking their own 90 game streak.

 

[UcMiami]

Does anybody remember when the official schedule usually comes out?

Some time in August usually as the league office takes a while to set up the league game schedule dealing with the various teams using the same facilities at many of the schools,

 

[ballhawk]

Next year rebounding will be tough. No senior leadership. Our record will be similar to post DT 2004-05. Geno may be a magician but he's not supernatural. Suite 16 or Elite 8 at best.

 

[nd2tty]

In no particular order (and without a potential 1-3 game early season tournament, if they participate in one):

South Carolina
@ Notre Dame
Texas (Mohegan Sun)
Baylor
Maryland
Dayton
@ Kansas State
@ Nebraska
@ LSU
Ohio State
@ FSU
Chattanooga
DePaul

16 AAC games
29 regular season games

Interesting that the only really tough road game is ND. They get SC, Baylor, Maryland, and Ohio State at home, plus Texas virtually at home.

 

[Padutch5]

No.

I can't believe the pessimism on this board. I thought I had gone to the Tennessee
board by mistake. Let's savor the National championship for at least a little while.

Love all the discussion about how good our opponents will be. We don't know who will transfer, be hurt etc. Can't believe those who are ready to concede to ND or SC.
I sure hope Geno and the team don't share this outlook.

 

[hussybulldog]

Next year rebounding will be tough. No senior leadership. Our record will be similar to post DT 2004-05. Geno may be a magician but he's not supernatural. Suite 16 or Elite 8 at best.

Maybe Chong will come out of her shell and become a leader. KLS will won the next three MVP at final four.

 

[nd2tty]

Next year rebounding will be tough. No senior leadership. Our record will be similar to post DT 2004-05. Geno may be a magician but he's not supernatural. Suite 16 or Elite 8 at best.

In 2004-2005, they went 25-8 and lost in S16.

Losing in E8 could happen next year, anything can happen in the tournament.

But what are your 7 regular season losses? Are they losing in the AAC? To USF without Williams and Jenkins? Maybe at Tampa, but I doubt it. So then they lose 7 of the following games: South Carolina, @ Notre Dame, Texas (Mohegan Sun), Baylor, Maryland, Dayton, @ Kansas State, @ Nebraska, @ LSU, Ohio State, @ FSU, Chattanooga, DePaul. Which ones? ND on the road, sure. Baylor, Maryland, SC, Texas, Ohio State, perhaps. But, all home games, I would imagine they go 3-2 in those games at worse.

Injuries etc aside, it's tough to conceive them entering the tournament at any worse than 29-3.

 

[UcMiami]

Next year, the following teams will have more experience players and perhaps more raw talent on the floor than Uconn:
South Carolina
Notre Dame
Baylor
Maryland
Ohio State
Texas
FSU
of the remaining OOC DePaul always plays us tough and Dayton and Chattanooga are well coached respectable teams. And in conference next year we should see better competition from three or four schools besides USF (who will be adjusting to significant change as well.)

For Uconn the transition from a team dominated by upperclass leadership over the last four years (Dolson, Hartley, Faris, KML, Stokes, Jefferson, Tuck, and Stewart) is going to be huge - The trinity who are leaving accounted for:
52% of the yearly scoring, 39% of the rebounds, 57% of the assists, 60% of the blocks, 42% of the steals, and 44% of the minutes
That looks pretty significant but only shows a fraction of their import because the were unneeded for many of the fourth quarters over the course of the year. Looking just at the last three rounds of the tournament:
63% points, 49% rebounds, 74% assists, 64% blocks, 47% steals, and 55% of minutes.

I suspect there is no other team in the top 10 that is losing quite such a significant amount of experience, starting experience, production, or leadership heading into next year. In the past four years Uconn needed to replace:
2012 - Starter Hayes - starting lineup was returning starters 1 senior, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore and 1 freshman
2013 - Starter Faris (and Doty) - starting lineup was returning starters 2 seniors, 1 junior, 2 sophomores
2014 - Starters Hartley and Dolson - starting lineup was returning 1 senior, 2 juniors and new starters 1 junior and 1 freshman
2015 - Starter KML - starting line-up was returning starters 3 seniors, 1 sophomore, and 1 freshman

Next year's starting line up will probably be returning starters 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and new starters 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and ______. There will be a huge leadership void to be filled both on and off the court and a huge decrease in both experience and talent - there will be no returning AA (even including honorable mentions) let alone two or three, no likely or returning NPOY, etc.

The team will not be replacing a piece or two, it will be rebuilding its identity from scratch - there is a lot of talent and potential, and a great coaching staff, but November and December will be a huge adjustment period. To not acknowledge that and not expect some struggles would be crazy - maybe they will surprise everyone like the 2003 team did and win games that no one expected them to extending the winning streak beyond 90 as 2003 extended their streak to 70, but you could get very different odds from Vegas on that than you could over the last month! Defense without the DPOY and Stewart will be different and offense without the Lieberman and the NPOY will be very different as well and that's not even mentioning AA Tuck who was brilliant on both ends.

I am not trying to be a downer - WCBB and Uconn specifically I expect to very exciting next year, but it will be a brave new world.

 

[warbler1055]

What is more exciting than for UConn being in this new world of increase parity. There will be lots more close and hard fought games. May be we will see some great game finishes not unlike the recent NC-Villanova buzzer beater finish. UConn will be the underdog in some game. That's pretty new emotion for some fans. It's almost like before 1995. But not quite.

 

[Vowelguy]

I can't believe the pessimism on this board.

Why, because I stated an opinion that I would expect is shared by many non-partisan WCBB fans?

Let's savor the National championship for at least a little while.

Who says we're not?

Can't believe those who are ready to concede to ND or SC. I sure hope Geno and the team don't share this outlook.

Who says we are?
A question was asked. I gave an opinion.
I'm not connected to the program in any way, so my comments have absolutely no impact on the players or coaches.
Relax.

 

[Beltway]

I believe Uconn is @Maryland next season

 

[nd2tty]

I believe Uconn is @Maryland next season

Ah shoot, my mistake, yep Maryland is away.

The New Haven Register Blogs: Elm City to Eagleville: Butler could make UConn debut tomorrow; Geno on tough scheduling

 

[BroadwayVa]

My biggest concern right now would be rebounding. We are not big so how are we going to rebound against South Carolina, Texas, Baylor? ND isn't that big but they have a proven post and some good shooter plus what they are adding next year. Maryland has very good team and good recruiting class coming in. Geno has his work cut for him, I believe and will be rooting as hard as ever for out girls. He will earn his pay check next year. Should be a lot of fun.

The correct answer is YES THEY CAN WIN 16 GAMES--the real question is WILL THEY?? Also---NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE COACH OF CHAMPIONS!!!! HE WILL CREATE THE HEART.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Next year, the following teams will have more experience players and perhaps more raw talent on the floor than Uconn:
South Carolina
Notre Dame
Baylor
Maryland
Ohio State
Texas
FSU
of the remaining OOC DePaul always plays us tough and Dayton and Chattanooga are well coached respectable teams. And in conference next year we should see better competition from three or four schools besides USF (who will be adjusting to significant change as well.)

For Uconn the transition from a team dominated by upperclass leadership over the last four years (Dolson, Hartley, Faris, KML, Stokes, Jefferson, Tuck, and Stewart) is going to be huge - The trinity who are leaving accounted for:
52% of the yearly scoring, 39% of the rebounds, 57% of the assists, 60% of the blocks, 42% of the steals, and 44% of the minutes
That looks pretty significant but only shows a fraction of their import because the were unneeded for many of the fourth quarters over the course of the year. Looking just at the last three rounds of the tournament:
63% points, 49% rebounds, 74% assists, 64% blocks, 47% steals, and 55% of minutes.

I suspect there is no other team in the top 10 that is losing quite such a significant amount of experience, starting experience, production, or leadership heading into next year. In the past four years Uconn needed to replace:


Numbers, by themselves, do not lie--but you can prove anything you want with numbers. They work well when building a bridge or determining the cost of groceries.
Numbers have no real meaning when predicting what humans or teams can or will do in the game. Then it becomes COACH, training, preparation, heart, desire, and experience (if you are not repeating the same errors in judgement all the time)--I'll put my money on Uconn, Katie Lou, Collier, Butler, Gabby, Dangerfield, GENO, Christine,Shea, Morissa(?). Never count them out of any contest . The sky is still up there, the moon has not dropped--and Uconn is in good hands....Geno will have a 30 plus season.
2012 - Starter Hayes - starting lineup was returning starters 1 senior, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore and 1 freshman
2013 - Starter Faris (and Doty) - starting lineup was returning starters 2 seniors, 1 junior, 2 sophomores
2014 - Starters Hartley and Dolson - starting lineup was returning 1 senior, 2 juniors and new starters 1 junior and 1 freshman
2015 - Starter KML - starting line-up was returning starters 3 seniors, 1 sophomore, and 1 freshman

Next year's starting line up will probably be returning starters 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and new starters 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and ______. There will be a huge leadership void to be filled both on and off the court and a huge decrease in both experience and talent - there will be no returning AA (even including honorable mentions) let alone two or three, no likely or returning NPOY, etc.

The team will not be replacing a piece or two, it will be rebuilding its identity from scratch - there is a lot of talent and potential, and a great coaching staff, but November and December will be a huge adjustment period. To not acknowledge that and not expect some struggles would be crazy - maybe they will surprise everyone like the 2003 team did and win games that no one expected them to extending the winning streak beyond 90 as 2003 extended their streak to 70, but you could get very different odds from Vegas on that than you could over the last month! Defense without the DPOY and Stewart will be different and offense without the Lieberman and the NPOY will be very different as well and that's not even mentioning AA Tuck who was brilliant on both ends.

I am not trying to be a downer - WCBB and Uconn specifically I expect to very exciting next year, but it will be a brave new world.

 

[Kibitzer]

Once again, I invite my Boneyard friends, especially the skeptics, to refer to my post #22 in this thread.

When you do, you will know that vs. anybody, anytime, anywhere - I like our chances.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Here is my starting point (on a positive note) dealing with how competitive UConn will be next year against the 10 best teams.
Go back to the NC game in 2015 against Notre Dame. Close game and ND has Turner, Reimer & LLoyd. UConn has maybe the best team of all time coming back in 2016. ND is devastated when LLoyd goes pro, Reimer transfers out, Turner is hurt and their top frosh recruit (Patberg) is out for the season. What happens? Because of good/smart players and good coaching ND competes with UConn.
LLoyd=MO; Turner =Stewie; Reimer-Tuck---and they don't have Patberg. Obviously Reimer is not Tuck and Stewie and Mo are better, however, I think one can make a point here.
So now UConn is in a similar spot next season without the big three. I saw ND compete without their big three and I have to say I was a little surprised. We know UConn has better coaching and I also believe that Nurse, Lou, Gabby, and Collier are better than ND players--close, but better. That gives me a strong indication of what is very possible for next year.
One more reason I feel positive--UConn's 4 top players plus Butler would beat this year's Syracuse, Washington, and battle OSU. If those 3 teams went to the final 4 then we know what is possible. For the skeptics--I know next year will have at least 8 teams with an improved squad. However, most of that is FROSH. The transfers could be scary to opponents. Of course, Tennessee was scary before they started playing.
Anyway, that is how I am processing the 2016-2017 season and the new challenges ahead. What say you ?

 

[Kibitzer]

@PhillyCoach: I look for Captain Nurse to steer the UConn ship safely through rough seas and under stormy weather. She will respond to orders from Admiral Auriemma and rely heavily on First Mate Samuelson and an able bodied crew of cannoneers.

 

[Carnac]

Next year, the following teams will have more experience players and perhaps more raw talent on the floor than Uconn:
South Carolina
Notre Dame
Baylor
Maryland
Ohio State
Texas
FSU
of the remaining OOC DePaul always plays us tough and Dayton and Chattanooga are well coached respectable teams. And in conference next year we should see better competition from three or four schools besides USF (who will be adjusting to significant change as well.)

For Uconn the transition from a team dominated by upperclass leadership over the last four years (Dolson, Hartley, Faris, KML, Stokes, Jefferson, Tuck, and Stewart) is going to be huge - The trinity who are leaving accounted for:
52% of the yearly scoring, 39% of the rebounds, 57% of the assists, 60% of the blocks, 42% of the steals, and 44% of the minutes
That looks pretty significant but only shows a fraction of their import because the were unneeded for many of the fourth quarters over the course of the year. Looking just at the last three rounds of the tournament:
63% points, 49% rebounds, 74% assists, 64% blocks, 47% steals, and 55% of minutes.

I suspect there is no other team in the top 10 that is losing quite such a significant amount of experience, starting experience, production, or leadership heading into next year. In the past four years Uconn needed to replace:
2012 - Starter Hayes - starting lineup was returning starters 1 senior, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore and 1 freshman
2013 - Starter Faris (and Doty) - starting lineup was returning starters 2 seniors, 1 junior, 2 sophomores
2014 - Starters Hartley and Dolson - starting lineup was returning 1 senior, 2 juniors and new starters 1 junior and 1 freshman
2015 - Starter KML - starting line-up was returning starters 3 seniors, 1 sophomore, and 1 freshman

Next year's starting line up will probably be returning starters 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and new starters 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and ______. There will be a huge leadership void to be filled both on and off the court and a huge decrease in both experience and talent - there will be no returning AA (even including honorable mentions) let alone two or three, no likely or returning NPOY, etc.

The team will not be replacing a piece or two, it will be rebuilding its identity from scratch - there is a lot of talent and potential, and a great coaching staff, but November and December will be a huge adjustment period. To not acknowledge that and not expect some struggles would be crazy - maybe they will surprise everyone like the 2003 team did and win games that no one expected them to extending the winning streak beyond 90 as 2003 extended their streak to 70, but you could get very different odds from Vegas on that than you could over the last month! Defense without the DPOY and Stewart will be different and offense without the Lieberman and the NPOY will be very different as well and that's not even mentioning AA Tuck who was brilliant on both ends.

I am not trying to be a downer - WCBB and Uconn specifically I expect to very exciting next year, but it will be a brave new world.

Thanks UC, this is an excellent post, one every bone yarder should read. You've captured the 2016-2017 team's posture meticulously. Those tea leaves were not hard to read. Your adroit observations should assist us in adjusting our mindset going into next season. Next year will be totally different than this year was. We have some very knowledgeable and astute fans here, they know that. There's no doubt that UConn will lose some games. Going undefeated is nearly impossible not matter how good a team is. It's not the norm. Just look at how many teams have done so in the history of WCBB. That's what makes what this year's team did so incredible.

UConn will be challenged in every game they play next year. Nothing is guaranteed. Teams are going to see a conquerable UConn team next year, and want to take out years of frustration against them.
The BIG 3 are not coming back. UConn will not be nearly as dominant as they were this year. Next year will be a rebuilding one. That is the perception around the country. Some believe that's why Kim Mulkey (Baylor) waited until next season to put UConn on their schedule. She wanted no part of what UConn was handing out this year.

A huge percentage of their total game points this year has left the building. As you pointed out, they will be a young team only return 2 starters. Bone yarders will be debating all summer whether senior Saniya Chong will be one of them. Her supporters will be giving chapter and verse why she should. UConn will score, and their defense will be good, but not dominant. Bottom line is UConn will not have the best team in WCBB next year. We will however show up and compete nightly.

 

[FollowerCT]

I don't know what losses may be or how many ... I do have great faith that Geno will work this group of players, in the growth process, individually and as a team ... the team dynamic is ever so special with UConn ... given the ability of Geno and CD to mesh the emotional, physical and skill levels of diverse team oriented players into an offensive and defensive force to contend with - this next season will be a fun season to enjoy ... how much can UConn achieve, in light of the expectations of inferiority by many pundits? ... its premature to speculate knowledgeably how the team will develop ... perhaps we will be in store for a wonderful surprise ... history is on our side ...

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I really think with Nurse, KLS, Collier, Gabby, Butler, Saniya, Ekmark, Crystal Dangerfield, Irwin, Bent, plus the best coaching staff in Division I WCBB, that we will be better prepared than most teams on our schedule!
It may take a month or so but UCONN's tough as hell defense will carry us until the offense rounds into shape.
I have faith that Saniya, Butler, & Ekmark will realize that so much depends on them that in the off season, they will re-invent themselves to what their records show they once were and can be again!
Come February, & March we will be a tough out in the tournaments!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

It may take a month or so but UCONN's tough as hell defense will carry us until the offense rounds into shape.

Defense is due for a measurable drop-off without Stewart and Jefferson, perhaps the two best defenders in the country.