Can UConn lose games and still win an NC?

[alexrgct]

I'll just say that my point wasn't whether UConn teams need to be juggernauts or not. It was more subtle than that.
The 03 team supports my point -- they built confidence over the season and came to believe they were unbeatable. And they had a killer instinct, led by DT.

Just one more comment about this. I disagree that the 2003 team thought they were unbeatable, and certainly they gave their opponents no reason to think so. And if they did have an inflated sense of self, I'd have to think that bubble burst in the BET tourney. They then had precious little time to refocus and become the kind of team that could pull one out against Texas in the national semis and beat Tennessee on a neutral court more decisively (albeit still a close game) than they did at home. In my view, recovering from that BET loss has a higher degree of difficulty than recovering from losing two very close games on the road in December and early January.

This team has a pretty easy schedule until the very end of the month (which just got easier by virtue of Keisha Hampton's unfortunate injury). So the relatively easy schedule, plus getting back in the rhythm of playing games regularly, should help the girls get some mojo back. Then they have a big game on the road against Duke. If they're able to beat Duke, that's going to be an additional boost as they play three more ranked teams immediately after. If they get through that mini-guantlet unscathed, I think they feel great about themselves. They then have four easy games heading into the regular season finale/showdown/rematch with ND at home. In short, they have a solid chance of getting well and staying that way heading into the ND rematch, and if they are able to win that game, the December/January losses will seem like a distant memory heading into the postseason.

And if they drop more games...obviously it becomes incrementally more of a struggle.

 

[UConnCat]

Although Notre Dame didn't win the NC last year, it seemed to develop a killer instinct over the course of the season. It was at least developed enough to enable it to withstand a Maya Moore push at the end of the FF semi-final game. Here's a snapshot of some of ND's losses last year:

• Lost in OT to UCLA early in the season, a game it failed to close out;
• ND was up 5 on UConn late in the game at South Bend last year and failed to close it out;
• ND played a tight one against Kentucky last year and failed to make big plays at the end for another loss;
• ND had a late lead at Depaul but lost on a last second shot.

I don't think there's a minimal amount of time for developing a killer instinct. It depends on the make-up of the team. Some teams never get it; others seem to just have it or develop it quickly. Ideally, the purpose of the regular season is to allow a team to learn and grow so that you it's prepared to win in the post season. Part of the learning and growing process includes the ability to close out games. We'll learn a lot about this particular UConn team over the next several weeks.

 

[magic]

I say it's too early to predict the national championship. Huskies have lost two tough road games, that I feel should have been wins. Past seasons have absolutely no bearing on this team. There is plenty of talent on this roster to win. I don't feel the puzzle has been correctly put together yet. Huskies need front court scoring. The threat of front court scoring draws fouls. When Kiah and Steph were on the court together in the first half, huskies should have been able to pound the ball down low and expand the lead when Irish were vulnerable. Instead huskies continued the perimeter offense. Now I want to see if Husky coaching staff makes some adjustments!

 

[Bayareahusky]

Down inside? Don't think the coaching staff has confidence in either SD or Kiah - for different reasons - to go to them inside on a consistent basis....at least at this juncture

 

[Husky WBB Fan]

1. NCs and # of Ls: Once a team gets exposed by more than 4 Ls in a year, the chance of having the skill sets for a NC falls off dramatically. There have been 30 WCBB NCs, and here is the distribution of Ls:

• Zero: 6 champions (20%)
• 1: 5 champions (17%)
• 2: 6 (20%)
• 3: 5 (17%)
• 4: 4 (13%)
• 5: 2
• 6: 1
• 10: 1

Key message: Not to worry if there are 4 losses or less - - little indication of a low chance of NC success.

2. Is there room for individual player improvement (achieving athletic potential) among our players that can significantly help the team improve? (scored high [50% or better improvement possible], medium [20-50% improvement possible], or low [< 20% possible] and is it probable we will see the improvement this season (scored probable, possible, not likely). Note that a Low potential for player improvement can mean that they are already delivering a great deal and close to everything they have (see KF):

• TH: Low, not likely (and trying to observe it would be lost in her high variability [=inconsistency])
• KF: Low (already near her capacity - a good thing for the team), not likely (involves shooting improvement = summer!)
• CD: Low, not likely (sad, but those injuries...)
• HB: Low, possible
• MJ: Low, not likely
• SD: Medium, either not likely or possible - her performance so far this year confuses me
• LE: Low, not likely
• BH: Medium (this is scary considering how good she is right now), not likely this year (again...summer work)
• KML: High, probable
• KS: High, probable (after seeing ND game)
• BB: High, possible

Key message: The burden of individual improvement that can have a HIGH impact on the team to make this team dramatically better and NC successful falls on SD, KML, and KS

3. Where else can improvement be found:

• The intangibles: individual and team poise, killer instinct/tenacity, confidence, team play, etc.

Key message: we have the coaching staff that can instill these better than any other WCBB team

4. Bottom line: it will not be easy for them (but winning a NC shouldn't be), but there is no way I would bet against this team delivering a NC. Should be a fun ride - enjoy!

OK, I'm done being provocative for this post - - all IMHO

 

[Bayareahusky]

It is funny, you'd like to answer this question of NC possibilities and reference the men's tournament but you cannot. UConn last year, Marquette in 77, NCState in 83, and Villanova in 85 all had 8-10 losses I believe.....but with the women it is rare that you get a winner with more than 4 losses.....

I am still rooting for our gals..... I know they are going to learn from BU and ND and kick some ass the rest of the year.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Tiffany Hayes, KML, Bria, Kelly, probably Stef, possibly the other freshmen all have pro potential or better.

We also have the BE DPOY this year.

Hopefully, there is no misunderstanding here. I feel that the 2003 team had size in the post and a very good defender.

 

[easttexastrash]

Tennessee won a championship with 10+ losses one year. A great coach can get a team to learn from its losses and pull it together at the right time.

Of course UCONN can win it all. UCONN, Baylor, ND and Stanford all have the tools to win the NC. I just depends on a few breaks here and there. The top 4 teams are so close this year that it would not surprise me to see any of them win it.

I think the key will be KML. She looked very much like a freshman at the end of both the Baylor and ND games. She went 0-6 at the end of the Baylor game and had some costly turnovers late against ND on Saturday.

I don't anticipate that Stokes will make enough strides to be a factor in the event that UCONN plays Baylor again. BG is on such another level that Stokes will need a couple of years to be able to match up in the paint.

 

[alexrgct]

Tennessee won a championship with 10+ losses one year. A great coach can get a team to learn from its losses and pull it together at the right time.

Of course UCONN can win it all. UCONN, Baylor, ND and Stanford all have the tools to win the NC. I just depends on a few breaks here and there. The top 4 teams are so close this year that it would not surprise me to see any of them win it.

I think the key will be KML. She looked very much like a freshman at the end of both the Baylor and ND games. She went 0-6 at the end of the Baylor game and had some costly turnovers late against ND on Saturday.

I don't anticipate that Stokes will make enough strides to be a factor in the event that UCONN plays Baylor again. BG is on such another level that Stokes will need a couple of years to be able to match up in the paint.

The 10-loss LV team was 1997. I believe their PG was injured most of the year and came back in time for the tourney. Still, quite a turnaround for Pat, Chamique, and the rest of the LVs. They beat UConn in the Elite 8 after Shea Raph got injured. Very good UConn team that year- lost opportunity.

But even besides that outlier, Pat has done a great job of getting her teams to rebound (NPI) from regular season losses. She had the Three Meeks juggernaut in 1998, but otherwise, the other seven championship seasons had two or more losses.

Agree with pretty much everything you said other than I'm going to go ahead and make Baylor the clear favorite. I know you probably don't want to jinx them at this point.