Can the Huskies be too big??

[ucbart]

Height helps immensely and takes precedent over quickness IMO. I think the biggest reason why South Carolina has dominated the past 3 seasons is their size and athleticism inside with Cardoso/Boston/Watkins/Feagin among others. They also dominate the glass and block a ton of shots. They’ll be loaded once again inside so UCONN will need El Alfy to be healthy and productive to combat gong up against a tall and athletic South Carolina team.

Agree! But I think the loss of Cardoso will be, in a way, bigger than losing Boston. They have depth and athleticism up front, but not that massive figure that is Cardoso. They'll be incredible, but they had some close calls last year and Cardoso was a huge difference in those games.

 

[Majic Hands]

I am so with you on this thought! It's a great time to be a Husky fan.

It’s “always” a good time to be a UConn wbb fan!

 

[ashfan]

A championship team needs everything. This year, Page, Ash, & KK must be the leaders; for the following two seasons, Ash & KK. The back court will liberate the front court.

 

[hoophuskee]

It is difficult to isolate what Geno’s recruiting changes would be solely from just the new realities of the portal without the impact of the extra covid year, the medical redshirt years and years cut short by injuries.

That said, Geno has indicated that he prefers identifying and recruiting high school recruits — which he is great at, especially touchstone recruits, by saying he would ordinarily only consider intriguing portal players with one or at most two years of eligibility.

So his natural response to any decimation of his effective roster due to year-by-year unfortunate events (injuries, transfers) is not by dipping too much into the portal or abrupt recruit signings, but by having earlier recruited more hand-picked recruits than he would be more comfortable previously.

This would help explain (if it were not just pure happenstance) the successive years of 3-4+ quality recruits and dipping into the portal for 1-2 intriguing players that would not affect future recruiting.

I think this will be his trend going forward, until he encounters some unwanted consequences (e.g. affects chemistry, negatively affects recruiting) if unwanted events cease for some significant time to being a plague on the program.

I don't see the differences of changes from past to present that you see but I see what you say he is doing at this moment. I just felt he has always done this. But I 100% agree - he will continue to go after H/S recruits hard. I agree with all you say here - so nautrually I'm excited for UCONN's future too.

 

[bballnut90]

Agree! But I think the loss of Cardoso will be, in a way, bigger than losing Boston. They have depth and athleticism up front, but not that massive figure that is Cardoso. They'll be incredible, but they had some close calls last year and Cardoso was a huge difference in those games.

That could be the case, but at the same time I think South Carolina looks better on paper than they were this year, even without Cardoso. Last year they didn't have the same depth and dominance on the glass compared to 2022-23, but it didn't matter because they made up for it with improved guard play and perimeter shooting. We got a glimpse of what they'd look like without Cardoso vs UCONN and they were still incredibly dominant with Watkins replacing here.

 

[oldhusky]

I think there are several things that make pursuing multiple bigs on a consistent basis a desirable strategy, even casting aside for the moment the debate over size vs. smaller quicker more talented players. First they are very rare, and if we don't get them, one of our most serious contenders will. Second it is much harder to project or predict their success, because the high school competition doesn't offer a good measuring stick against much smaller competition. Only against similar size and skill competition do we get a better idea.

My point is the variation of college performance vs. HS ranking is much wider than for the guards. It is more of an unknown, and you can't just assume you get a top 10 recruit and you are set at that position for the next four years. I get the arguments that assume Jana and Sarah will be real stars, Gandy will be a good contributor, we get Lara and Olivia and they meet expectations too, but the odds of all of that happening are far from certain.

When you have maybe four proven high level bigs then you might back off going after additional ones, but we are nowhere close to that yet. After Amari, Ice and Ayanna, I can't assume high ranking equals sure thing college star. I am actually pretty confident about Sarah and Jana, but we need them to be real good from the beginning, and even if they are, we don't yet have proven quality behind them. Ayanna and Ice IMO are only quality backups if they show a huge improvement from their first year performance.

I like our odds of getting both Lara and Olivia, and feel they will be the real deal too when they enter college, but there is uncertainty there too, both over getting them, and as to how good they will be. I also think the big options beyond Lara in 25 and Olivia in 26 are pretty limited. The downside if you miss on either is significant, although the portal could be plan B.

Some of the championship contenders have had 4 or 5 very good bigs. They also generally had at least a couple of those proven and returning that they could count on. If all that we hope for happens with Sarah, Jana, Gandy, Lara and Olivia maybe we do too, but remember not one of those players has proven it yet at the college level, and two of them have not yet committed.

Our roster is unusual in that we are very dependent on inexperienced players upfront being thrown into the fire and producing right away, which they probably will, but one of the top portal bigs would have been a major addition, and until our new bigs prove themselves the hunt for bigs should continue IMO.

 

[Bone Dog]

That could be the case, but at the same time I think South Carolina looks better on paper than they were this year, even without Cardoso. Last year they didn't have the same depth and dominance on the glass compared to 2022-23, but it didn't matter because they made up for it with improved guard play and perimeter shooting. We got a glimpse of what they'd look like without Cardoso vs UCONN and they were still incredibly dominant with Watkins replacing here.

I’m not sure SC will be better than last season, but they are still the presumptive #1 going into the season. It wouldn't surprise me if this turns out to be the case for the next couple years. Dawn has built a formidable program, one that could lose the freshies all in one season and come back better. That’s 4 out of 5 starters. I don’t know if any coach has done that and come back to win an NC.

Dawn has figured out what the great coaches all know: how to get superstars to devote their talents to a team concept. That said, I think she may have over-recruited this team by getting Dauda in the portal. She already had a great frontcourt and I suspect it will be a bit clogged for the next couple years. Watkins Walker Kitts Tac and Edwards should have been enough going forward. I think she will finally have an impatient bench.

Geno hasn’t made this mistake. He got Kaitlyn from the portal, and some feared that was one too many guards. But after the initial shock I think most folks see her as a positive addition. But Geno didn’t add another big through the portal, and I think he was right not to do so. The drumbeat on the BY may have been right to think we were one big away from dominating this season. But I feared that it might clog up recruiting and rotations for more than one year. He signed a five year extension and therefore is probably thinking in 5-year terms, as he always has.

I really agree with @oldhusky about the trouble with predicting which HS bigs will flourish at the next level. His analysis seems just right. This almost always means it takes a year or more before they can reach their potential -- assuming they have genuine potential. Stewie and Boston and A'ja all grew significantly in their 4 years, but they were all already D1 ready coming out of HS. I'd be tempted to include Liv and Dorka in this list, though I'm pretty sure they wouldn't and have said so in interviews. In any event kids like this are exceptions, and the middle of the bell curve is populated by slow growing kids who aren't ready to start until their third year, if then. This means the recruitment rhythm is quite different for bigs and littles. KK and Ash could work their way onto a top-10 starting lineup as freshman. That's unusual. Geno has always had a knack for finding guards like them, and they weren't always heralded coming out of HS. Jewels in the rough who could handle the pressure of such a role as freshman. I'd venture to say that if they had to, this year's freshmen could do the same thing. Let's hope they don't have to.

 

[donalddoowop]

I’m not sure SC will be better than last season, but they are still the presumptive #1 going into the season. It wouldn't surprise me if this turns out to be the case for the next couple years. Dawn has built a formidable program, one that could lose the freshies all in one season and come back better. That’s 4 out of 5 starters. I don’t know if any coach has done that and come back to win an NC.

Dawn has figured out what the great coaches all know: how to get superstars to devote their talents to a team concept. That said, I think she may have over-recruited this team by getting Dauda in the portal. She already had a great frontcourt and I suspect it will be a bit clogged for the next couple years. Watkins Walker Kitts Tac and Edwards should have been enough going forward. I think she will finally have an impatient bench.

Geno hasn’t made this mistake. He got Kaitlyn from the portal, and some feared that was one too many guards. But after the initial shock I think most folks see her as a positive addition. But Geno didn’t add another big through the portal, and I think he was right not to do so. The drumbeat on the BY may have been right to think we were one big away from dominating this season. But I feared that it might clog up recruiting and rotations for more than one year. He signed a five year extension and therefore is probably thinking in 5-year terms, as he always has.

I really agree with @oldhusky about the trouble with predicting which HS bigs will flourish at the next level. His analysis seems just right. This almost always means it takes a year or more before they can reach their potential -- assuming they have genuine potential. Stewie and Boston and A'ja all grew significantly in their 4 years, but they were all already D1 ready coming out of HS. I'd be tempted to include Liv and Dorka in this list, though I'm pretty sure they wouldn't and have said so in interviews. In any event kids like this are exceptions, and the middle of the bell curve is populated by slow growing kids who aren't ready to start until their third year, if then. This means the recruitment rhythm is quite different for bigs and littles. KK and Ash could work their way onto a top-10 starting lineup as freshman. That's unusual. Geno has always had a knack for finding guards like them, and they weren't always heralded coming out of HS. Jewels in the rough who could handle the pressure of such a role as freshman. I'd venture to say that if they had to, this year's freshmen could do the same thing. Let's hope they don't have to.

Reportedly Geno went after Beers. She was a big in the portal.

 

[Bone Dog]

Reportedly Geno went after Beers. She was a big in the portal.

Yes, though I didn't think it went far, and he also reportedly sought Iriafen. I thought Kiki was a better option because she'd only be in the program for one year, while Beers would be here for two. I haven't heard that he went after Dauda or Barker. In other words, his approach was surgical. He didn't try to hoover up some big any big -- only those who might help without disrupting recruiting too much. And as soon as he no longer saw anyone who fit that bill, he said he was done.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

That could be the case, but at the same time I think South Carolina looks better on paper than they were this year, even without Cardoso. Last year they didn't have the same depth and dominance on the glass compared to 2022-23, but it didn't matter because they made up for it with improved guard play and perimeter shooting. We got a glimpse of what they'd look like without Cardoso vs UCONN and they were still incredibly dominant with Watkins replacing here.

Looking forward to a proper rematch. One without an asterisk here and there.

The game you cited is not a proper competition:

• UConn played arguably (5)+1, and not necessarily its top 7 from a pool of 14, consisting of 4 effective freshmen and 3 upperclassmen with Bigs playing 42 minutes; including that game, the starters (including Paige coming back from a year’s absence) have played together a total of eighteen games in a novel 4-guard 3-point guard lineup;
• South Carolina played arguably its top (5)+3, from a pool of 11, who, apart from Paopao and freshmen Fulwiley and Johnson, have been practicing together since the prior season; only Jah and Cardoso did not play; South Carolina’s Bigs played 78 minutes.

A proper game would test this year’s iteration of the question: “beautiful basketball” vs. height and athleticism.

 

[Bone Dog]

A proper game would test this year’s iteration of the question: “beautiful basketball” vs. height and athleticism.

Omg, yes!

I think it was Nikki Collen at Baylor said something to this effect after losing to Geno: it’s really hard to coach against UConn because their style of play is so pretty to watch.

 

[BobbyJ]

I think there are several things that make pursuing multiple bigs on a consistent basis a desirable strategy, even casting aside for the moment the debate over size vs. smaller quicker more talented players. First they are very rare, and if we don't get them, one of our most serious contenders will. Second it is much harder to project or predict their success, because the high school competition doesn't offer a good measuring stick against much smaller competition. Only against similar size and skill competition do we get a better idea.

My point is the variation of college performance vs. HS ranking is much wider than for the guards. It is more of an unknown, and you can't just assume you get a top 10 recruit and you are set at that position for the next four years. I get the arguments that assume Jana and Sarah will be real stars, Gandy will be a good contributor, we get Lara and Olivia and they meet expectations too, but the odds of all of that happening are far from certain.

When you have maybe four proven high level bigs then you might back off going after additional ones, but we are nowhere close to that yet. After Amari, Ice and Ayanna, I can't assume high ranking equals sure thing college star. I am actually pretty confident about Sarah and Jana, but we need them to be real good from the beginning, and even if they are, we don't yet have proven quality behind them. Ayanna and Ice IMO are only quality backups if they show a huge improvement from their first year performance.

I like our odds of getting both Lara and Olivia, and feel they will be the real deal too when they enter college, but there is uncertainty there too, both over getting them, and as to how good they will be. I also think the big options beyond Lara in 25 and Olivia in 26 are pretty limited. The downside if you miss on either is significant, although the portal could be plan B.

Some of the championship contenders have had 4 or 5 very good bigs. They also generally had at least a couple of those proven and returning that they could count on. If all that we hope for happens with Sarah, Jana, Gandy, Lara and Olivia maybe we do too, but remember not one of those players has proven it yet at the college level, and two of them have not yet committed.

Our roster is unusual in that we are very dependent on inexperienced players upfront being thrown into the fire and producing right away, which they probably will, but one of the top portal bigs would have been a major addition, and until our new bigs prove themselves the hunt for bigs should continue IMO.

You can take solace in the fact that at least one inexperienced UConn big got thrown into the fire and produced quality minutes and that was Brady through the BET and NCAAT. To see you put her contributions in the same sentence with DeBerry and Patterson is amusing and disrespectful. And if you ever did equate high HS ranking with sure thing college star you were mistaken.

 

[yhun89]

Yes, though I didn't think it went far, and he also reportedly sought Iriafen. I thought Kiki was a better option because she'd only be in the program for one year, while Beers would be here for two. I haven't heard that he went after Dauda or Barker. In other words, his approach was surgical. He didn't try to hoover up some big any big -- only those who might help without disrupting recruiting too much. And as soon as he no longer saw anyone who fit that bill, he said he was done.

He tried for Dauda. Not Barker. She wasn’t interested in us.

 

[Bone Dog]

Let me see if I can put this really precisely. Geno often jokes that he doesn’t believe in analytics. One thing he might mean by analytics is what you hear about Lynne Roberts at Utah and other coaches, that they discourage midrange jump shots in favor of only 3s and layups. Geno seems to really like the midrange game, and the only reason I think this is because he recruits kids who are really great at it, like Sue and Diana and Pheesa and Paige and Azzi and Ash and now Allie and Kaitlyn.

Don’t get me wrong. Geno also loves back cuts and layups and 3s and the transition game. I’ve said before that the midrange jumper is the stock in trade if the bucket-getter. And it’s really valuable for stopping runs by the other team. Against Syracuse and Duke and USCw, how many times did Paige hit an effortless midrange shot to reassure her teammates and to demoralize their opponents? How often has Azzi done the same thing to bail us out? And it’s the effortlessness of it that’s part of the point. In March defenses are tuned to shut down the paint and the perimeter. But this often leaves the midrange vulnerable to someone like Paige or Azzi.

The point of this digression — maybe it’s an analogy — is that a similar style of thinking seems to lead Geno to prefer HS recruits to portal transfers. Some sort of analytics might tell a coach that you can build a talented team quickly with transfers. But you probably can’t build a program that way. HS recruits are like the midrange game for coaches. To switch metaphors for a second, you can’t swing for the fences all the time (contrary to Earl Weaver). Mostly you just want to get runners on base and I to scoring position.

Switching back to basketball, Geno often says he’d like the team to take 20-25 3s in an ideal game. If they hit 35% of those, that amounts to 8 extra points, and a total of ~24 points. For a team that usually scores ~85 points/game this leaves 60 points, and probably ~40 of these will come from layups and the free throw that will often accompany them. This leaves 20 points from the midrange, and given how efficient Paige and Azzi and Ash tend to be from there, this may only require ~15 shots.

Clearly from a beancounter’s standpoint, those 20-25 3 point attempts would have been better spent on midrange attempts, since the point yield would be higher given the difference in efficiency. But in reality, the impact on team morale from a well timed dagger or a seemingly effortless midrange shot can be quite different.

Similarly, snatching a superstar from the portal may satisfy the fans and the AD for a season or two. And waiting on a HS recruit may try the patience of the fans. But the long game and the slow program building game may be the better play. There’s room for a few portal stars in a solid program but you don’t want to rely on them to build it.

 

[bballnut90]

Looking forward to a proper rematch. One without an asterisk here and there.

The game you cited is not a proper competition:

• UConn played arguably (5)+1, and not necessarily its top 7 from a pool of 14, consisting of 4 effective freshmen and 3 upperclassmen with Bigs playing 42 minutes; including that game, the starters (including Paige coming back from a year’s absence) have played together a total of eighteen games in a novel 4-guard 3-point guard lineup;
• South Carolina played arguably its top (5)+3, from a pool of 11, who, apart from Paopao and freshmen Fulwiley and Johnson, have been practicing together since the prior season; only Jah and Cardoso did not play; South Carolina’s Bigs played 78 minutes.

A proper game would test this year’s iteration of the question: “beautiful basketball” vs. height and athleticism.

Wasn't trying to take a shot a UCONN, just merely pointing out that the game vs. UCONN was a good example of how they played without Cardoso and South Carolina still looked fantastic despite not having a 6-7 enforcer inside.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Wasn't trying to take a shot a UCONN, just merely pointing out that the game vs. UCONN was a good example of how they played without Cardoso and South Carolina still looked fantastic despite not having a 6-7 enforcer inside.

I didn’t think you were. Fans have been robbed of intriguing matchups of the two best rosters and programs of the past few years.

 

[hoophuskee]

Wasn't trying to take a shot a UCONN, just merely pointing out that the game vs. UCONN was a good example of how they played without Cardoso and South Carolina still looked fantastic despite not having a 6-7 enforcer inside.

I could be wrong and if so apologize. But the point I think the poster NY was trying to make is that if UCONN was healthy that SoCar might not have looked so fantastic. SoCar was playing a much lesser team than would otherwise have been if UCONN were healthy.

And ot further that, if UCONN were healthy these last several years maybe SoCar wouldn't have looked so far ahead of everyone else vs maybe this would have bene more like for example Tenn vs UCONN back in the day.

 

[Bone Dog]

I could be wrong and if so apologize. But the point I think the poster NY was trying to make is that if UCONN was healthy that SoCar might not have looked so fantastic. SoCar was playing a much lesser team than would otherwise have been if UCONN were healthy.

And ot further that, if UCONN were healthy these last several years maybe SoCar wouldn't have looked so far ahead of everyone else vs maybe this would have bene more like for example Tenn vs UCONN back in the day.

And I'd agree with both thoughts. The rivalry that wasn't to be, between SC and UConn has been a great loss to WBB fans. Paige has shown clearly enough that she could carry her team to the final matchup with SC. But there hasn't always been enough gas left in the tank to get the win in April. Plus, even without Paige or Azzi, Nika and Aaliyah and Lou showed that they could compete with SC in a thrilling regular season game. So, the signs of a greater rivalry are there. It's just too bad we didn't really get to enjoy it.

 

[Cuango]

I think there are several things that make pursuing multiple bigs on a consistent basis a desirable strategy, even casting aside for the moment the debate over size vs. smaller quicker more talented players. First they are very rare, and if we don't get them, one of our most serious contenders will. Second it is much harder to project or predict their success, because the high school competition doesn't offer a good measuring stick against much smaller competition. Only against similar size and skill competition do we get a better idea.

My point is the variation of college performance vs. HS ranking is much wider than for the guards. It is more of an unknown, and you can't just assume you get a top 10 recruit and you are set at that position for the next four years. I get the arguments that assume Jana and Sarah will be real stars, Gandy will be a good contributor, we get Lara and Olivia and they meet expectations too, but the odds of all of that happening are far from certain.

When you have maybe four proven high level bigs then you might back off going after additional ones, but we are nowhere close to that yet. After Amari, Ice and Ayanna, I can't assume high ranking equals sure thing college star. I am actually pretty confident about Sarah and Jana, but we need them to be real good from the beginning, and even if they are, we don't yet have proven quality behind them. Ayanna and Ice IMO are only quality backups if they show a huge improvement from their first year performance.

I like our odds of getting both Lara and Olivia, and feel they will be the real deal too when they enter college, but there is uncertainty there too, both over getting them, and as to how good they will be. I also think the big options beyond Lara in 25 and Olivia in 26 are pretty limited. The downside if you miss on either is significant, although the portal could be plan B.

Some of the championship contenders have had 4 or 5 very good bigs. They also generally had at least a couple of those proven and returning that they could count on. If all that we hope for happens with Sarah, Jana, Gandy, Lara and Olivia maybe we do too, but remember not one of those players has proven it yet at the college level, and two of them have not yet committed.

Our roster is unusual in that we are very dependent on inexperienced players upfront being thrown into the fire and producing right away, which they probably will, but one of the top portal bigs would have been a major addition, and until our new bigs prove themselves the hunt for bigs should continue IMO.

While Yanna’s freshman year was a bit disappointing, I have to wonder if her knee was already bothering her then. Ice, I believe should get a pass for last year as I think it took most of the year for her to fully begin to trust her body. This is the year (for both Ice and Yanna) that imo will tell the tale. I am fairly confident that Ice is going to be a star from here on out, assuming good health, and as for Yanna I guess we’ll see.

Obviously, I hope she will also come into her own but I think her knee is a little scarier than Ice’s injury. Clearly, if she is healthy, then the sky’s the limit. She’s a big strong girl who could easily become a devastating screener & rebounder which is exactly what this team needs! Picturing Jana, Sarah, and a healthy Yanna in our front court soothes my rebounding concerns considerably! I just pray that this roster can finally have a nice long stretch of good health!

 

[jdote33]

I still marvel at that entire 2021-22 season. It was inspiring and heartbreaking by turns. I often wonder about the lessons it holds for us. At the beginning of the season Paige comes back from summer ankle surgery and looks spectacular, like she’s ready for a second NPOY. That Arkansas game looked like a warning to the rest of D1 — she barely takes a shot in the first quarter but ends the game with 30+ points.

Against ND, it’s one of those bruising games and with the usual ND flopping, until the second half when Paige has had enough and takes the game over, and for good measure pins a couple fouls on Mabrey and Citron as a sort of warning: “cut the crap.” And then in the final minutes her knee collapses. It was like the entire team deflated. In the Ga Tech game they looked confused and we were left wondering if they would be able to pull a winning season together. That’s how devastating Paige’s injury was to everyone. She’d showed us how spectacular she could be and then it was all snatched away.

Then Evina and Caroline and Nika and Azzi took turns carrying the emotional load, and by the time Paige comes back Geno can even joke about Paige needing to earn minutes in practice. And she looks alternately fragile and made of steel as she thumps Indiana NC St and Stanford one after another. I almost wept watching the NC St game. What couldn’t Paige do?

But Dorka breaks her wrist, and Caroline’s hip is becoming more of a problem every week, Liv and Azzi are weakened, and it begins to look like the team is melting away right under Paige’s feet. The girl is practically held together by string and kinesio tape and yet she manages to carry the team to the NC game. It was the most incredible season ever. No way the team does any of that without her, but there was only so much she could do.

When I think of what next season could look like, I think about how the team seemed that year before the ND game. Anything seemed possible then, as it does now. Sure, there were question marks then as now. But the core elements were in place just like now.

But now I worry less about injuries than about legacy. Paige has one more season, maybe two, to put her mark on the team Azzi KK Ash Sarah Morgan Allie and Jana will take the team into the future. Kelis Gandy and (maybe) Lara may not have the same chance to play with Paige. And after that, it will be down to Ash and KK and Sarah and Morgan to set the example. The future looks bright, but also a little unnerving. I am really looking forward to seeing how the next few seasons unfold. This is also one reason the fixation on getting more bigs seems misguided to me.

I'm with you on the 21-22 team. It's probably one of my favorite basketball teams I've ever followed. I think almost each player had their crazy individual storyline filled with highs and lows. I mean literally every player. It would've been storybook ending if they won title. That one still hurts!

Ice is such a strange case. She gets a few minutes in the start/middle of the season against unranked opponents, doesn’t do great. A foul machine who needs to be taken out once she gets in.

Cut to the BE tournament where she needs to fill the huge void Aaliyah left, and she’s a whole new player out there. Rebounds, points, shots falling. Defense clicking. Less foul prone. And against USC she hit multiple key shots and rebounds. She even posted up on Stuelke.

She’s the embodiment of “pressure creates diamonds,” which is incredibly surprising for a freshman IMO. Whereas other star freshman faded when the real pressure came onto them, Ice thrived. I’d have expected the opposite, but no, she did better when she was forced to be their go-to big than when she wasn’t. Great sign of development.

I do believe in Ice. I just think she was in a tight spot this past year, backing up AE and being a freshman in terms of experience. I think she will be a lot better this year.