unless you're a top 4 seed, which was not a realistic expectation for the program this season, then you're not a favorite to make the sweet 16 anyways. otherwise it's a matchup dependent crapshoot. we lost in the first round last year as a 7, but UCLA made it to the final 4 as an 11. we can certainly make it to the second round as an 8 or 9, although i'm confident we'll be higher than that. i think we finish the regular season around 20-11. which would mean around 3rd in the BE (12-8) and a 6 or 7 seed.
if we can somehow make the sweet 16 then great but unless we lose in the first round again then this season shouldn't be considered a failure. we'll have won our first tourney game in 6 years and it'll be an improvement upon last season. if both cole and martin come back next year then we'll have realistic top 4 seed expectations and more.