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Message: [QUOTE="ctchamps, post: 3549001, member: 37"] Agree about the numbers. But even those low percentage numbers will overwhelm the medical system. That's what happen in Lombardy Italy and NYC and several places in Spain. The reason other places in the USA did not go through the crisis that NYC suffered is that people observed what was happening there and were scared enough by that situation to isolate. The degree of isolation is reducing. Some people have no choice financially. But many who have a choice lack discipline and will use finances as an excuse. The important thing is not arguing amongst ourselves about what is the best choice. There is none. We get any additional spikes and the economy could be worse off than if we prolonged stay at home mandates. We'll find out soon enough. My opinion is that we will absolutely have spikes and most likely they will be worse than the first spike. How many and when is less predictable, but I'm not betting this summer will give us a respite. The biggest unknown is how will the average person react to those spikes. When things were happening in Lombard Italy I correctly called in this forum that the USA was going to be in trouble. I got the expected pushback that we are not Lombard Italy. It took NYC for Americans to take things seriously. Of course the best learning is when we have situations happening to ourselves. So I expect a significant number of people to rationalize the worse case situation is confined to NYC because that city is different than Podunk USA. That's irrational because the virus doesn't recognize geography. Interestingly the reactions were similar after 911. I'm more into predictions than pizzing back and forth over and over again the same arguments. That is why I've stayed out of most of these debates. I've been wrong about one up to this point. Thought Florida would have considerable more problems than they have had. Part of my "incorrect prediction" was because most of the mayors took control of their cities ahead of the governor. Part is due to the probability the governor is fudging the numbers considerably more than the average politician on both sides of the spectrum. Nonetheless I'm happy to be wrong on this. I'm still waiting on my hypothesis of hydroxychloroquine. I'll be happy to be wrong on that one as well. [/QUOTE]

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