Bubble watch (3/5/23) | The Boneyard

Bubble watch (3/5/23)

shizzle787

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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American:
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Memphis

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU

ACC:
Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke
Should be in: Pitt, NC State
Work left to do: Clemson

Big 12:
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State

Big East:
Locks: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence

Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin

Mountain West:
Locks: SDSU, Utah State
Should be in: Boise State
Work left to do: Nevada

Pac-12:
Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC
Work left to do: Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Others:
Should be in: FAU
Work left to do: Charleston

Locks: 33
Conference auto bids (outside of top 9 leagues): 23
Spots available (at most): 12
 
While they will still get in, I wouldn't call PC a lock anymore.

Lost 3 of last 4 with the 1 win being Georgetown, and now their NET sits above 50.

The bubble is very weak so I think they get in but now closer to an 11 seed than a 7.

If they lose to UConn Thursday having lost 4 of final 5 that's not a comfortable place to sit come Sunday.

Torvik still has tourney odds at 83% but it's not a lock imo.
 
In what world should Pitt be in?

They're 14-2 against Q3 & Q4 (one of the losses is Q4)

Their best win is 30 Virginia at Home or 45 Northwestern Away.

It's...not a great resume. I think they're going to need to beat Duke in the quarterfinals to make it in.
 
Storrs South said:
While they will still get in, I wouldn't call PC a lock anymore.

Lost 3 of last 4 with the 1 win being Georgetown, and now their NET sits above 50.

The bubble is very weak so I think they get in but now closer to an 11 seed than a 7.

If they lose to UConn Thursday having lost 4 of final 5 that's not a comfortable place to sit come Sunday.

Torvik still has tourney odds at 83% but it's not a lock imo.
Expand ...
They lucked out getting us in a 4/5 game in some ways. Win and they are 100% in, no questions asked. If they lose, it would have to be an absolute mauling for it to hurt them.

It depends on how we're parsing "lock." I think right now they're like a 8-10 seed. A loss against us Thursday likely puts them like 8 spots from the cut line. It's really hard to fall out from there.
 
Let's assume for a minute that there are no bid thieves (unlikely, but let's assume).

These are the teams fighting for the last 12 spots:
Memphis, Pitt, NC State, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Boise State, Nevada, Arizona State, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.

I have highlighted who I think is in as of now. The rest are bubblicious. Some of the Big 10 teams will fizzle out. Some of the SEC teams will fizzle out.
 
tzznandrew said:
They lucked out getting us in a 4/5 game in some ways. Win and they are 100% in, no questions asked. If they lose, it would have to be an absolute mauling for it to hurt them.

It depends on how we're parsing "lock." I think right now they're like a 8-10 seed. A loss against us Thursday likely puts them like 8 spots from the cut line. It's really hard to fall out from there.
Expand ...
If they win the 5/12 game, I think they will be fine. 22 wins in a down ACC is bubble territory but most of their losses aren't that bad compared to the rest of the bubble.
 
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Storrs South said:
While they will still get in, I wouldn't call PC a lock anymore.

Lost 3 of last 4 with the 1 win being Georgetown, and now their NET sits above 50.

The bubble is very weak so I think they get in but now closer to an 11 seed than a 7.

If they lose to UConn Thursday having lost 4 of final 5 that's not a comfortable place to sit come Sunday.

Torvik still has tourney odds at 83% but it's not a lock imo.
Expand ...
I've been working under the assumption that they needed 21 wins to be a lock factoring in their weak OOC SOS.
 
shizzle787 said:
If they win the 5/12 game, I think they will be fine. 22 wins in a down ACC is bubble territory but most of their losses aren't that bad compared to the rest of the bubble.
Expand ...
Home against 222 Florida State? Away against 186 Notre Dame?
 
tzznandrew said:
Home against 222 Florida State? Away against 186 Notre Dame?
Expand ...
Most. Again, Clemson for instance has worse losses as does others.

There are 18 teams fighting for anywhere realistically between 9-12 spots.
 
Not big on Michigan. VCU has some decent wins and finishing strong
 
tzznandrew said:
They lucked out getting us in a 4/5 game in some ways. Win and they are 100% in, no questions asked. If they lose, it would have to be an absolute mauling for it to hurt them.

It depends on how we're parsing "lock." I think right now they're like a 8-10 seed. A loss against us Thursday likely puts them like 8 spots from the cut line. It's really hard to fall out from there.
Expand ...
Yeah PC is in.
 
shizzle787 said:
Most. Again, Clemson for instance has worse losses as does others.

There are 18 teams fighting for anywhere realistically between 9-12 spots.
Expand ...
I think as of right now Pitt is maybe in—hence work to do—and Clemson is on the wrong side of the cut-line by a decent amount. They need a big run.
 
.-.
I think the Mountain West is getting 4 bids unless one of Utah State, Nevada or Boise State loses in the quarterfinals of the MWC tournament. Basically, a bad loss is the only thing that can keep those teams out of the Dance. The Selection Committee can't use the NET Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins as criteria on one hand, and then simply ignore overall NET on the other. The MWC has 4 teams in the Top 36, which should mean 4 bids.
 
shizzle787 said:
Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin
Expand ...
Lol the Big Ten is going to get 10 teams in and all but one will be gone by the second weekend.
 
Looking forward to a non-FAU team winning CUSA and popping some mediocre P5 bubble
 
I think last 4 in are NC State, Miss St, Nevada, and Pitt, in that order, with Wisconsin and Utah St in Dayton.

I believe there are really only three other teams currently outside the field that have a shot at getting in: Ariz St, Penn St. and Okla St. No shot for UNC or Michigan unless they get the autobid.
 
It's annoying P5 teams like West Virginia are considered "in" while going 4 games below .500 in league.

They should be squarely on the bubble.

Put in Charleston or FAU or some other traditionally one-bid league regular season champ over that crap.

Sadly, I doubt this will happen.
 
.-.
shizzle787 said:
American:
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Memphis

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU

ACC:
Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke
Should be in: Pitt, NC State
Work left to do: Clemson

Big 12:
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State

Big East:
Locks: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence

Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin

Mountain West:
Locks: SDSU, Utah State
Should be in: Boise State
Work left to do: Nevada

Pac-12:
Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC
Work left to do: Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Others:
Should be in: FAU
Work left to do: Charleston

Locks: 33
Conference auto bids (outside of top 9 leagues): 23
Spots available (at most): 12
Expand ...
UNC?
 
tzznandrew said:
Home against 222 Florida State? Away against 186 Notre Dame?
Expand ...
How in the world are teams like Florida State and Notre Dame that bad? You have to work hard in a major conference to be that bad
 
Inyatkin said:
How in the world are teams like Florida State and Notre Dame that bad? You have to work hard in a major conference to be that bad
Expand ...
That conference also has:

126 Syracuse
166 Boston College
177 Georgia Tech
311 Louisville
 
tzznandrew said:
That conference also has:

126 Syracuse
166 Boston College
177 Georgia Tech
311 Louisville
Expand ...
It's really incredible. The worst of the Ollie years I think we got to 179, and that was playing Tulane twice a year. Georgetown at 0-20 was also about 180. It takes real skill to be sub-200 in a conference like the ACC.
 
Ports21 said:
It's annoying P5 teams like West Virginia are considered "in" while going 4 games below .500 in league.

They should be squarely on the bubble.

Put in Charleston or FAU or some other traditionally one-bid league regular season champ over that crap.

Sadly, I doubt this will happen.
Expand ...
FAU is guaranteed a bid. Charleston definitely more on the bubble.
 
shizzle787 said:
American:
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Memphis

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU

ACC:
Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke
Should be in: Pitt, NC State
Work left to do: Clemson

Big 12:
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State

Big East:
Locks: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence

Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin

Mountain West:
Locks: SDSU, Utah State
Should be in: Boise State
Work left to do: Nevada

Pac-12:
Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC
Work left to do: Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Others:
Should be in: FAU
Work left to do: Charleston

Locks: 33
Conference auto bids (outside of top 9 leagues): 23
Spots available (at most): 12
Expand ...

So UNC went from solidly in, on your bracket matrix, to below Clemson? :)
 
.-.
If one goes by the theory that the Committee relies heavily on AP rankings, then it would seem Utah St. and Pitt have a solid inside track on making the field over other bubble teams.
 
pepband99 said:
So UNC went from solidly in, on your bracket matrix, to below Clemson? :)
Expand ...
I would rather see UNC in the tournament than the last couple of ten Big-10 teams projected to get in. Of Rutgers, Michigan, Penn St, and Wisconsin I think only 1 should get in, but could understand 2 depending on how the conference tournament shales out.
 
UConnRock said:
I would rather see UNC in the tournament than the last couple of ten Big-10 teams projected to get in. Of Rutgers, Michigan, Penn St, and Wisconsin I think only 1 should get in, but could understand 2 depending on how the conference tournament shales out.
Expand ...
No, UNC needs to suffer.
 
Probably deserves its own thread, but Providence should be on the bubble. 21-11 and a NET of 53 before the loss to UConn. Over half PC's wins are Quad 4, and PC has a losing record against the first THREE Quads.

Providence really sucks.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Probably deserves its own thread, but Providence should be on the bubble. 21-11 and a NET of 53 before the loss to UConn. Over half PC's wins are Quad 4, and PC has a losing record against the first THREE Quads.

Providence really sucks.
Expand ...
Put Friars in the play-in round....f them.
 
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