Bubble watch (3/5/23)

[shizzle787]

American:
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Memphis

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU

ACC:
Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke
Should be in: Pitt, NC State
Work left to do: Clemson

Big 12:
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State

Big East:
Locks: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence

Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin

Mountain West:
Locks: SDSU, Utah State
Should be in: Boise State
Work left to do: Nevada

Pac-12:
Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC
Work left to do: Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Others:
Should be in: FAU
Work left to do: Charleston

Locks: 33
Conference auto bids (outside of top 9 leagues): 23
Spots available (at most): 12

 

[Storrs South]

While they will still get in, I wouldn't call PC a lock anymore.

Lost 3 of last 4 with the 1 win being Georgetown, and now their NET sits above 50.

The bubble is very weak so I think they get in but now closer to an 11 seed than a 7.

If they lose to UConn Thursday having lost 4 of final 5 that's not a comfortable place to sit come Sunday.

Torvik still has tourney odds at 83% but it's not a lock imo.

 

[tzznandrew]

In what world should Pitt be in?

They're 14-2 against Q3 & Q4 (one of the losses is Q4)

Their best win is 30 Virginia at Home or 45 Northwestern Away.

It's...not a great resume. I think they're going to need to beat Duke in the quarterfinals to make it in.

 

[tzznandrew]

While they will still get in, I wouldn't call PC a lock anymore.

Lost 3 of last 4 with the 1 win being Georgetown, and now their NET sits above 50.

The bubble is very weak so I think they get in but now closer to an 11 seed than a 7.

If they lose to UConn Thursday having lost 4 of final 5 that's not a comfortable place to sit come Sunday.

Torvik still has tourney odds at 83% but it's not a lock imo.

They lucked out getting us in a 4/5 game in some ways. Win and they are 100% in, no questions asked. If they lose, it would have to be an absolute mauling for it to hurt them.

It depends on how we're parsing "lock." I think right now they're like a 8-10 seed. A loss against us Thursday likely puts them like 8 spots from the cut line. It's really hard to fall out from there.

 

[shizzle787]

Let's assume for a minute that there are no bid thieves (unlikely, but let's assume).

These are the teams fighting for the last 12 spots:
Memphis, Pitt, NC State, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Boise State, Nevada, Arizona State, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.

I have highlighted who I think is in as of now. The rest are bubblicious. Some of the Big 10 teams will fizzle out. Some of the SEC teams will fizzle out.

 

[shizzle787]

They lucked out getting us in a 4/5 game in some ways. Win and they are 100% in, no questions asked. If they lose, it would have to be an absolute mauling for it to hurt them.

It depends on how we're parsing "lock." I think right now they're like a 8-10 seed. A loss against us Thursday likely puts them like 8 spots from the cut line. It's really hard to fall out from there.

If they win the 5/12 game, I think they will be fine. 22 wins in a down ACC is bubble territory but most of their losses aren't that bad compared to the rest of the bubble.

 

[shizzle787]

While they will still get in, I wouldn't call PC a lock anymore.

Lost 3 of last 4 with the 1 win being Georgetown, and now their NET sits above 50.

The bubble is very weak so I think they get in but now closer to an 11 seed than a 7.

If they lose to UConn Thursday having lost 4 of final 5 that's not a comfortable place to sit come Sunday.

Torvik still has tourney odds at 83% but it's not a lock imo.

I've been working under the assumption that they needed 21 wins to be a lock factoring in their weak OOC SOS.

 

[tzznandrew]

If they win the 5/12 game, I think they will be fine. 22 wins in a down ACC is bubble territory but most of their losses aren't that bad compared to the rest of the bubble.

Home against 222 Florida State? Away against 186 Notre Dame?

 

[shizzle787]

Home against 222 Florida State? Away against 186 Notre Dame?

Most. Again, Clemson for instance has worse losses as does others.

There are 18 teams fighting for anywhere realistically between 9-12 spots.

 

[Jimdish255]

Not big on Michigan. VCU has some decent wins and finishing strong

 

[August_West]

They lucked out getting us in a 4/5 game in some ways. Win and they are 100% in, no questions asked. If they lose, it would have to be an absolute mauling for it to hurt them.

It depends on how we're parsing "lock." I think right now they're like a 8-10 seed. A loss against us Thursday likely puts them like 8 spots from the cut line. It's really hard to fall out from there.

Yeah PC is in.

 

[tzznandrew]

Most. Again, Clemson for instance has worse losses as does others.

There are 18 teams fighting for anywhere realistically between 9-12 spots.

I think as of right now Pitt is maybe in—hence work to do—and Clemson is on the wrong side of the cut-line by a decent amount. They need a big run.

 

[HooperScooper]

How bad is the ACC this year?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think the Mountain West is getting 4 bids unless one of Utah State, Nevada or Boise State loses in the quarterfinals of the MWC tournament. Basically, a bad loss is the only thing that can keep those teams out of the Dance. The Selection Committee can't use the NET Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins as criteria on one hand, and then simply ignore overall NET on the other. The MWC has 4 teams in the Top 36, which should mean 4 bids.

 

[The Yakk]

Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin

Lol the Big Ten is going to get 10 teams in and all but one will be gone by the second weekend.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Looking forward to a non-FAU team winning CUSA and popping some mediocre P5 bubble

 

[storrsroars]

I think last 4 in are NC State, Miss St, Nevada, and Pitt, in that order, with Wisconsin and Utah St in Dayton.

I believe there are really only three other teams currently outside the field that have a shot at getting in: Ariz St, Penn St. and Okla St. No shot for UNC or Michigan unless they get the autobid.

 

[Ports21]

It's annoying P5 teams like West Virginia are considered "in" while going 4 games below .500 in league.

They should be squarely on the bubble.

Put in Charleston or FAU or some other traditionally one-bid league regular season champ over that crap.

Sadly, I doubt this will happen.

 

[whosurdaddy2720]

American:
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Memphis

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU

ACC:
Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke
Should be in: Pitt, NC State
Work left to do: Clemson

Big 12:
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State

Big East:
Locks: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence

Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin

Mountain West:
Locks: SDSU, Utah State
Should be in: Boise State
Work left to do: Nevada

Pac-12:
Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC
Work left to do: Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Others:
Should be in: FAU
Work left to do: Charleston

Locks: 33
Conference auto bids (outside of top 9 leagues): 23
Spots available (at most): 12

UNC?

 

[Inyatkin]

Home against 222 Florida State? Away against 186 Notre Dame?

How in the world are teams like Florida State and Notre Dame that bad? You have to work hard in a major conference to be that bad

 

[tzznandrew]

How in the world are teams like Florida State and Notre Dame that bad? You have to work hard in a major conference to be that bad

That conference also has:

126 Syracuse
166 Boston College
177 Georgia Tech
311 Louisville

 

[Inyatkin]

That conference also has:

126 Syracuse
166 Boston College
177 Georgia Tech
311 Louisville

It's really incredible. The worst of the Ollie years I think we got to 179, and that was playing Tulane twice a year. Georgetown at 0-20 was also about 180. It takes real skill to be sub-200 in a conference like the ACC.

 

[auror]

It's annoying P5 teams like West Virginia are considered "in" while going 4 games below .500 in league.

They should be squarely on the bubble.

Put in Charleston or FAU or some other traditionally one-bid league regular season champ over that crap.

Sadly, I doubt this will happen.

FAU is guaranteed a bid. Charleston definitely more on the bubble.

 

[pepband99]

American:
Lock: Houston
Should be in: Memphis

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU

ACC:
Locks: Miami, Virginia, Duke
Should be in: Pitt, NC State
Work left to do: Clemson

Big 12:
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia
Work left to do: Oklahoma State

Big East:
Locks: Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, Providence

Big Ten:
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers
Work left to do: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin

Mountain West:
Locks: SDSU, Utah State
Should be in: Boise State
Work left to do: Nevada

Pac-12:
Locks: UCLA, Arizona, USC
Work left to do: Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Arkansas, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

WCC:
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Others:
Should be in: FAU
Work left to do: Charleston

Locks: 33
Conference auto bids (outside of top 9 leagues): 23
Spots available (at most): 12

So UNC went from solidly in, on your bracket matrix, to below Clemson?

 

[storrsroars]

If one goes by the theory that the Committee relies heavily on AP rankings, then it would seem Utah St. and Pitt have a solid inside track on making the field over other bubble teams.