Bubble Watch 03/14

[nelsonmuntz]

The field is firming up. I think Xavier is in. The SEC is getting 14 bids, with none of the SEC teams really even on the bubble anymore. We will find out pretty quickly next week if all the team metrics models are any good.

Fun fact: Lunardi's "updated" bracketology has mistakes in it. It has the SEC with 13 bids but 14 teams actually in the field. It has the Big 10 with 9 bids but 8 teams actually in the field.

There are 31 automatic bids, 24 from 1 bid leagues, and 7 from multi-bid leagues. That leaves 44 spots (7 autobids and 37 at large) for the multi-bid leagues.

My field:

SEC (14): Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Texas

Big 10 (8): Michigan State, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon

Big 12 (8): Houston, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia

Big East (5): UConn, Marquette, St. John's, Creighton, Xavier

ACC (4): Duke, Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina

MWC (3): New Mexico, Utah State, Boise State

WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's



On the edge: Boise State, West Virginia, Xavier. There doesn't need to be a last 4 in because after these three, the bids are all pretty much locked up.

Just Missing: Indiana, Ohio State, San Diego State

Potential bid stealers:

A10: VCU or Dayton, although I don't think Dayton gets a bid unless they win the A10.
AAC: Memphis is a lock whether they win the conference or not.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There are a few more Memphis fans than normal around the country right now.

 

[Inyatkin]

I don't know if UNC is solidly in or not but if they aren't, the idea of three teams from that giant conference is pretty humiliating. Four isn't much better.

 

[mike012]

That’s what happens when you go 3-42 against the Sec.

 

[auror]

I don't know how you can consider Texas "not on the bubble".

 

[shizzle787]

I think UNC will get in over Xavier even after getting demolished by Duke.

 

[shizzle787]

I also think SDSU is in.

 

[gsmooth]

There are a few more Memphis fans than normal around the country right now.

For sure. I am sure a few Xavier fans were sweating profusely when Wichita State was taking Memphis down to the wire.

 

[UConNick]

It’s insane how every result the SEC needed down the stretch of the regular season to maximize their bids, they got. And then Texas going on a run in the conference tourney, too.

I’ll do my final bracket projection Sunday afternoon, but on the surface I think it’s going to be difficult to not have 14 SEC teams in.

 

[uh-no]

I think UNC will get in over Xavier even after getting demolished by Duke.

well they're about to beat duke without flagg...which would be the big win they need to push them in.

 

[RuffRuff]

Bracket Matrix has a different layout for the bubble - not sure this is gospel, but it does aggregate 100 brackets. Right now Xavier is either the last or second to last "in". They need a Texas loss and none of the 4 remaining mid major thieving - Memphis to win their tourney, VCU to win theirs, UNM/Utah St/SDSU to win theirs (can't believe MW has 3 autos) and UCSD to win theirs.

11	West Virginia	Big 12	10.41
11	Drake	Missouri Valley	10.83
11	San Diego State	Mountain West	11.01
11	Indiana	Big Ten	11.15
11	VCU	Atlantic 10	11.27
12	Xavier	Big East	11.50
12	North Carolina	ACC	11.52

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Right from an inclusion standpoint, likely 1-2 teams will always complain; the committee gets that right most years.

It's ranking within that some find puzzling. There will always be UConn fans that think we're seeded to low just like there will be for Duke in any given year.

We get what we get, but let us win tonight and Saturday before we keep going because there's a lot more basketball and a lot more revisions to all of the above.

Sunday we can surely see the updates and feel confident where we think the selection committee will announce us.

 

[ctbro1999]

Interesting that some brackets have Xavier as still in (final or 2nd to last team in). I would have figured they were toast after last night. Looks like Texas will lose, so if they do they will also be sweating it Sunday. I'm sure both Xavier and Texas are hoping Flagg-less Duke can beat UNC, as if UNC wins tonight, very possible they will lock up the ACC's autobid, making their at-large profile talk moot.

 

[HooperScooper]

I don't know if UNC is solidly in or not but if they aren't, the idea of three teams from that giant conference is pretty humiliating. Four isn't much better.

Wake Forest coach agrees with you.

"We're not the ACC of old," Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes said of his team's few Quad 1 opportunities after Thursday's ACC Tournament loss to North Carolina. "We've had a lot of change-over with coaches. Once the league play starts, it's hard to move, especially in our league this year. If you look at my schedule, we played 20 league games, and 10 of those were either Quad 3 or Quad 4 games. You just don't have as many opportunities. So how do we fix that? Well, we have to be creative."

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I know they are both landing somewhere around a four seed but I need someone to give me a compelling explanation as to why Clemson and Louisville would be any better than a ten seed in a normal college basketball season. I really don't see a whole lot there with either team.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I don't know if UNC is solidly in or not but if they aren't, the idea of three teams from that giant conference is pretty humiliating. Four isn't much better.

Can't even joke that it was Ed Cooley who knocked out Syracuse.

 

[RuffRuff]

UNM losing last night, Utah St and SDSU losing, MW presents your first big thief. Xavier chances looking bleak.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UNM losing last night, Utah St and SDSU losing, MW presents your first big thief. Xavier chances looking bleak.

I don't think SDSU is in.

 

[RuffRuff]

I don't think SDSU is in.

Win against Houston. Most brackets have them in. MW gonna equal BE in bids, which is laughable. Xavier is out.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Win against Houston. Most brackets have them in. MW gonna equal BE in bids, which is laughable. Xavier is out.

SDSU's next best win is against a Creighton team that was sitting Ashworth. Anything is possible, but there is nothing about SDSU's resume that says "tournament team" other than one win over Houston.

 

[B1GEast]

UNC should not make the tournament. They have only one top 25 win and lost probably 9 games against tier 1 opponents.

Davis will probably be fired if they don't go the the tournament.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

UNC should not make the tournament. They have only one top 25 win and lost probably 9 games against tier 1 opponents.

Davis will probably be fired if they don't go the the tournament.

UNC should not make the tournament but I have a strong suspicion that name recognition will get them a bid.

 

[ecasadoSBU]

Interesting that some brackets have Xavier as still in (final or 2nd to last team in). I would have figured they were toast after last night. Looks like Texas will lose, so if they do they will also be sweating it Sunday. I'm sure both Xavier and Texas are hoping Flagg-less Duke can beat UNC, as if UNC wins tonight, very possible they will lock up the ACC's autobid, making their at-large profile talk moot.

It's hard for me to understand how a Xavier team with a 13-7 Big East, 21-11 is competing for a bid with Indiana (10-10, 19-13) and Texas (6-11, 19-15). It makes no sense.


Do actual Wins and Losses not matter anymore?

 

[king conn]

UNC should not make the tournament but I have a strong suspicion that name recognition will get them a bid.

The ACC rep will insist on it. Over Xavier

Val's hand picked rep will cower in a corner sucking his thumb

 

[RuffRuff]

It's hard for me to understand how a Xavier team with a 13-7 Big East, 21-11 is competing for a bid with Indiana (10-10, 19-13) and Texas (6-11, 19-15). It makes no sense.


Do actual Wins and Losses not matter anymore?

Their OOC is brutal - legit no quality wins. Awful in Quad1. They have three wins that have any weight, splits with us, Creighton and Marquette. It’s honestly a terrible resume.