Breaking the undefeated streak?

[alexrgct]

You also have to consider that, of the requisite 45 games to break the streak, many of them (as many as 75%) are guaranteed. I'm not talking about uconn versus a top 10 opponent: I'm talking uconn-Memphis. Uconn is flat-out winning games like that. In other words, the question isn't about 45 more games in a row; it's about 11-12 games sprinkled into that stretch

Another point to consider is how wide the margin of victory, and thus the margin for error, has been. Compare that to Baylor's 42-game streak that ended against Stanford. The Bears had had a number of games that were very close (including against uconn), and it just seemed like they were living on borrowed time. I didn't see that with uconn during the 90-game streak until the one-point win over Baylor. I certainly haven't seen it yet through 46 games.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Nit-picking here, but didn't the 90-game streak conclude in 2010-11, with Stef and Bria in the fold (in fact, Bria basically preserved the streak all by herself against Baylor early in that season)? Faris and Doty were part of the 2009-2010 team as well. All 4 of those guys were instrumental in initiating our current 46 game streak.

I agree with the spirit of your post -- that Geno has gotten it done with a wide diversity of players -- but it's not strictly speaking true.

Yep, my bad. Stef and Bria contributed to the last 12 of the 90. Bria's play vs. Baylor helped up pass UCLA's 88.

 

[JRRRJ]

Not sure I agree, Eric. Take a look at MoJett's FG numbers this year and make the assumption that one (or more) of the incoming freshmen or Brianna develops so that there's a good combo guard on the court to feed her as appropriate...Gosh! What an awesome prospect!

Hmm. You didn't look at the stats. In the 24 games played after New Year, MJ shot 59.6% overall, 55.6% from three. Only reason she averaged 10.0 ppg is because she was accumulating 5.1 assists a game in 31 minutes. If someone else is on the floor looking to feed her when she's open, I think you've replaced KML from a scoring perspective, especially since MJ is a better inside scorer.

And you have Ms. Tuck available when a larger body is required. What I've seen/heard re KLS doesn't fit the concept of an inside banger...but who knows what can happen?

 

[Tenspro2002]

Yep, my bad. Stef and Bria contributed to the last 12 of the 90. Bria's play vs. Baylor helped up pass UCLA's 88.

And Faris and Doty helped contribute to the first 6 of the current 46.

But if you wanted to make a broader point about Geno able to achieve greatness with different squads: he has had 5 undefeated teams, and 4 of them had completely different rosters.

 

[Buzzyboy]

My feeling is that the 90 game win streak won't be broken. A bit more parity in the game now than back when that streak got started 6-7 years ago. More good players going to more teams. All it takes is for UConn to have a god awful shooting night and the opponent to have the game of their life. See Louisville-Baylor for a prime example of that. Geno's a great coach, but he can't play. Someone will pull off the upset, and depending on who does it, it may not even really be an upset.

With the talent on the team (and coming in) UConn is going to be loaded with shooters and scorers and the likelihood of multiple awful shooting nights is substantially less than if UConn were a team that had just a couple of primary scorers. Looking at Baylor, how many scorers did they really have on their team? Don't get me wrong, they were an outstanding team but they were a lot more a splendid defensive team than they were an offensive one and their big offensive players consisted of their point guard and their 6'8" center. It's going to be a lot more difficult with the team that UConn will put on the floor to expect a team to both have an outstanding scoring night against the Huskies (with their continually wonderful team defense) and hope that just about their entire lineup shoots up bricks all night long. I just don't see it happening with that talented a roster.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I get the optimism, and yeah you can toss out games like Louisville-Baylor saying that would never happen to us, but it did happen to us, and against a far less worthy opponent in St. John's, and at home. Flukes happen. So do injuries. And transfers. And all kinds of unforeseeable stuff. UConn had some really poor offensive showings in the tourney run. Is it not possible for UConn to ever have another poor night in the next 45 games? All UConn needs to do is do what it did last month several times AND for the defense to have an off night. Just based on the numbers alone, you have to bet against the streak being broken, never mind accounting for other factors as mentioned above .

One of the issues we had during those close games during the tournament was a lack of depth caused by injuries and a short bench. Our bench next year is not going to be nearly as short and the likelihood we're going to have nearly as many injuries again next year is almost non existent. Even in light of our off night shooting, didn't we still win pretty handily, despite the adversity? So there, you had the worst case scenario and we still won by a bunch. With more depth next year and more shooters on our roster, what is the likelihood of that reoccurring???? I know, never say never but it is on the verge of ridiculous to assume that many negative things happening again PLUS!

 

[ThisJustIn]

during those close games

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You've got an interesting view of "close"

 

[Zorro]

Also, it was Geno's choice to only play essentially six players. BB and Saniya were there had he chosen to use them. And we would have still won all six games.

 

[Geno-ista]

I totally agree with you in that Stewie and Jefferson will be seniors and hands down the best at their respective positions, by a pretty wide margin (Frankly, I expect Moriah to be a favorite for the Lieberman award as a junior). And you are correct - IF Tuck is back 100% and Williams is fully healthy, I expect those 2 plus Nurse will also be as good as any trio in the nation.

But, I also agree that losing KML, as well as Stokes, will be incredibly impactful and replacing what both bring will be a tad more difficult than replacing what Dolson and Hartley brought - not because the former pair is better, but because there aren't any similar parts behind them (specifically referring to KML - I sort of see Samuelson as her "replacement" so to speak, but if we land her, she would be a freshman)...

I agree Eric! I watched the Lincoln regional, semis & finals many times now. KML was so good with clutch scoring, rebounding and great dishes in the lane- she was everywhere. Her BBall IQ is off the charts. She is a great great great player. She is becoming a real triple threat & she has the softest/ best hands in the game! Her 6 game NCAA Tmt was Epic!

 

[easttexastrash]

South Carolina will probably be the only team capable of impacting the streak. The talent that they have added is pretty substantial and if Staley can blend in the wealth of new talent with the VERY good team that was already in place, they are going to be a very tough out. But other than USC, I just don't think anyone else has the talent to beat UCONN.

 

[ThisJustIn]

I'm REALLY eager to see what Dawn can do these next two years -- it'll will shown, IMHO, 1) if she can coach talent up and 2) if she has a shot at the USA Bball gig... I think the fact that Reeve is an assistant is interesting...

 

[Buzzyboy]

during those close games

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You've got an interesting view of "close"

What I was talking about was those TWO relatively close games in Nebraska where we didn't pull away until late in the game, in fact games that we were behind well into the half due to some sloppy play on our side along with our poor shooting. Everyone knew that our defense would ramp it up and we'd win but there was a little more anxiety than we've come to expect from this team. Those games in Nebraska really seemed to be games where we couldn't get untracked at all and had we played like that against a team that was capable of plyaing two halves as well as those opponents played the first half and was shooting unconsciously, it would have been scary! Is that clear enough for you????????

 

[Bayareahusky]

I think we break the undefeated record..... i think because we are just so far ahead of the pack and in the midst of a domination streak..... I see Notre Dame (particularly if they get Durr) and USC (if they get DD and Cooper) as the only stumbling blocks.....

I think Reno Tony talked about defense..... all I can think of is that 2010 chmpnshp game vs Stanford..... when we ended the 1st half with 12 points..... a UConn all time low..... nothing was going right..... we shot 6 for 35...... BUT.... we only trailed by 8 pts...... it was all because of UConn defense taught by our outstanding coaches.....

that is why, barring a barrage of injuries, I don't see anyone stopping us, at least before we break the 90 game undefeated streak.....

 

[Geno-ista]

With the talent on the team (and coming in) UConn is going to be loaded with shooters and scorers and the likelihood of multiple awful shooting nights is substantially less than if UConn were a team that had just a couple of primary scorers. Looking at Baylor, how many scorers did they really have on their team? Don't get me wrong, they were an outstanding team but they were a lot more a splendid defensive team than they were an offensive one and their big offensive players consisted of their point guard and their 6'8" center. It's going to be a lot more difficult with the team that UConn will put on the floor to expect a team to both have an outstanding scoring night against the Huskies (with their continually wonderful team defense) and hope that just about their entire lineup shoots up bricks all night long. I just don't see it happening with that talented a roster.

Respectfully, I couldn't disagree more! The streak will be very tough to break. Baylor should have won that title at least a 2nd time. They had the most dominant post in the history of the game and the best point guard in the country. Scoring in the paint was almost impossible. And they had all quality veteran seniors around them-including Hayden, Pope, and so on. They were built to win the championship- period. Louisville hit 3 pt shots from like 30 ft and were allowed to mug Griner- that's the way I saw it. And Syms still almost pulled it out- taking the lead late.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Respectfully, I couldn't disagree more! The streak will be very tough to break. Baylor should have won that title at least a 2nd time. They had the most dominant post in the history of the game and the best point guard in the country. Scoring in the paint was almost impossible. And they had all quality veteran seniors around them-including Hayden, Pope, and so on. They were built to win the championship- period. Louisville hit 3 pt shots from like 30 ft and were allowed to mug Griner- that's the way I saw it. And Syms still almost pulled it out- taking the lead late.

I'm not suggesting that Baylor wasn't a fabulous team but they were overtly reliant on Sims and Griner and Griner stunk the joint out in that loss to Louisville. I've heard from a number of people that she was banged around badly (not having seen the game myself) but I'm inclined to think that Louisville was banging up Dolson (who was already playing with two distinct injuries) when UConn played them in the championship game and yet she contributed a bunch to the Huskies overwhelming victory over Louisville. It isn't like our Huskies didn't experience the aggressiveness of Louisville and not just once! What I said is that UConn, particularly over the next season, is going to be appreciably more balanced on the offensive end than that Baylor team, so that even if a player gets mugged or breaks a leg or has some ominous thing happen to them, they're going to be able to get offense from others to offset it. Sims was basically a one man band in the Baylor comeback with NO HELP from just about anyone offensively! She almost accomplished the comeback by herself but this isn't horseshoes! You mentioned Hayden and Pope like I should be impressed with their offensive skills but that isn't really happening. UConn's team next year is going to have numerous players who are a lot more than token players and are capable of going off against anyone.

 

[HoopsFan21]

during those close games

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You've got an interesting view of "close"

If BYU can lead UConn a few minutes into the 2nd half, then eventually a team with much better talent will have a chance at knocking off the Huskies. No team is invincible. Even Maya and Diana lost games. I really don't see how today's UConn teams are any different.

 

[msf22b]

I really don't see how today's UConn teams are any different.

They play better;

more easy inside buckets,
D at least as good,
Mo and Stewie are era changers,
better coaching
better scouting

Harder to beat…not impossible, but unlikely

 

[itsasport]

If Norte Dame or Stanford were getting the recruits that South Carolina, Maryland or Tenn are amassing, UConn going undefeated would be very uncertain. But, the odd situation in women's' basketball is that the programs with coaches that have proven records of defeating UConn are not attracting the top recruiting classes. They are going to teams whose coaches have a proven inability to beat well-coached teams with equal or less talent.

 

[Zorro]

I don't think you can justly say that of SCAR.

 

[mhshuskies]

If Norte Dame or Stanford were getting the recruits that South Carolina, Maryland or Tenn are amassing, UConn going undefeated would be very uncertain. But, the odd situation in women's' basketball is that the programs with coaches that have proven records of defeating UConn are not attracting the top recruiting classes. They are going to teams whose coaches have a proven inability to beat well-coached teams with equal or less talent.

So the Ogwumike sisters, Skylaar Diggins, Kayla mcBride, Jewel Lloyd and Briana Turner aren't top line players?

 

[meyers7]

So the Ogwumike sisters, Skylaar Diggins, Kayla mcBride, Jewel Lloyd and Briana Turner aren't top line players?

I think itsasport was talking about amassing so Ogwumike, Diggins and McBride, Loyd and Turner. But I agree with you ND is still pulling in pretty good talent. Maybe not quite as much as S. Carolina or Tennessee. Where I can agree with itsasport, what are they doing with them so far???

Next year I do expect TN and SCar to make it to the FF. Along with UCONN and ND. Now one of those 4 probably won't make it. Just because stuff happens.

 

[itsasport]

So the Ogwumike sisters, Skylaar Diggins, Kayla mcBride, Jewel Lloyd and Briana Turner aren't top line players?

I think itsasport was talking about amassing so Ogwumike, Diggins and McBride, Loyd and Turner. But I agree with you ND is still pulling in pretty good talent. Maybe not quite as much as S. Carolina or Tennessee. Where I can agree with itsasport, what are they doing with them so far???

Next year I do expect TN and SCar to make it to the FF. Along with UCONN and ND. Now one of those 4 probably won't make it. Just because stuff happens.

Amassing was the word I was looking for- a comparison of the comparable strengths of the recruiting classes vs results and future expectations

Concerning the recruited classes, by team, from 2008 through 2014(so far), UConn ranked-(with dashes indication a low ranking)----2, _, 3, 2, 1, _, 4. The NCAA Tournaments have reflected those numbers.

For Tenn.---1, 12, 14, 1, 5, 3, 6. For Duke---5, 24, 1, 4, 7, 2, 3. For Rutgers---3, 9, _, 3, 3, 19, _.

For Notre Dame---21, 16, 8, 29, 4, 4, 5. For Stanford---6, 10, 4, 6, 23, 6, _. For Louisville---13, 23, 5, 7, _, _, 8.

If you compare the performances in the NCAA Tournament for the above two groups of teams, there is a conundrum.

Maryland, South Carolina and North Carolina have also soaked up a number of top recruits. The point is that no team with bad coaching is going to defeat UConn in the next two years.

It is an interesting question as to why so many top players are not choosing to go to the schools with the best coaching. But, as long as this continues, it will abet a long undefeated streak by UConn.

 

[msf22b]

Obviously there are many who think that Dawn is ready to jump to the elite ranks.
The North Carolina thing last season appears to be a one-off.
Maryland, Tennessee and Rutgers have not given any evidence of being in the same class as us.
Stanford has advantages and disadvantages with regard recruiting; well documented.
Louisville, for all its success, has not developed into a recruiting powerhouse.
Baylor (who you omitted), continues to make inroads in recruiting as well as Texas and some Pac-10 teams.
Notre Dame does very well with a little less…just not enough

I don't see who's going to challenge us in the near-term.
Especially with the magnificent classes coming in.