Breakdown of NCAAT locks and bubble teams

[DefenseBB]

Rhode Island loses in the A-10 quarterfinals to St. Joseph. Pretty sure that bursts their bubble. They had the win over Princeton and were 2-2 overall in Quad 1 games ... but those three Quad 3 losses are a total resume killer. WNIT bound.

And hopefully sends a note to the VA Athletic Director to look elsewhere for their coach…

 

[Basket]

What about Kansas? No idea what their NET is. Beat Oklahoma today. Beat Texas earlier. Nothing much in OOC. Swept West Virginia, who was mentioned as a bubble team. 11-7 in Big 12 and 20-8 overall, which is much, much, much better than WVU's record.

edit--split w/ OU, Texas and K State

Who says WVU is a bubble team?

7-11 in Big 12 isn’t a bubble team or close to a quality win. They will be fortunate to play NIT

In conf wins came against -
Tex Tech, OSU, TCU and K State None had a winning record in conference.

 

[Basket]

Side trivia: The first league that I know of to use this tiebreaker for seeding purposes is the Summit League, where South Dakota State edged South Dakota to the top spot by just two ranking positions, as the Jackrabbits were 34, with the Coyotes 36. Interesting that some leagues are already using this as a tiebreaker when NET hasn't really been proven.

NET rewards soft OOC schedules too much. You get punished if you schedule tough games and get wiped out. Better to do what Colorado did and rack up wins against lame teams rather than Wash St scheduling tough teams and getting creamed
Wash St beat Colorado in reg season YES!

 

[Lorcan]

As NET is a relatively new tool, I thought it'd be fun to take a look at what the NET looked like last year in regards to teams on the bubble.

Here are the 33 At-Large Teams and their NET Rankings from last year pre-tourney. Keep in mind that there were 33 at-large bids due to the Ivy League not playing last season.

#6 Louisville
#8 UCLA
#9 Indiana
#10 Oregon
#11 Texas A&M
#12 Rutgers
#13 Georgia
#14 Tennessee
#15 Arizona
#17 Arkansas
#18 Kentucky
#20 Missouri State
#22 Michigan
#23 Iowa
#24 West Virginia
#26 Iowa State
#27 Oklahoma State
#28 Virginia Tech
#29 Texas
#30 Georgia Tech
#31 Northwestern
#33 Alabama
#34 Marquette
#35 North Carolina
#36 Oregon State
#38 Central Florida
#40 Michigan State
#43 Syracuse
#45 Washington State
#46 South Dakota State
#47 Wake Forest
#48 Florida State
#50 BYU

The teams that did not get an invitation to the Big Dance despite their NET Ranking include:

#37 Bucknell (Given that Bucknell only played the Patriot League last year, IIRC, makes sense that they got left out.)
#39 Missouri
#41 Ole Miss
#49 Drake
#51 IUPUI
#52 Colorado
#53 Tulane
#54 New Mexico
#56 Notre Dame

It's extremely difficult to make any judgements based on data from last season given the state of the world that affected schedules to a larger degree than this year and the ability of teams to play outside of their regional bubbles. I'm thinking of taking a more in depth look once the tournaments are done and we know how many bubbles have "burst"

 

[Lorcan]

NET rewards soft OOC schedules too much. You get punished if you schedule tough games and get wiped out. Better to do what Colorado did and rack up wins against lame teams rather than Wash St scheduling tough teams and getting creamed
Wash St beat Colorado in reg season YES!

On the other hand, you have a team like Oregon St. who ended the year 14-13, with a NET of 52. Oregon St. had the 4th toughest SOS per Massey Ratings. At the end of the day, even if you play a tough schedule, you have to win some games. Despite what you consider a weak OOC schedule, Colorado and Utah still played a Top 30 SOS per Massey in the nation. If we're going strictly off Massey SOS, Colorado and Utah both played a tougher schedule than UConn this year. Whether that meets the eye test or not, I'll leave up for debate.,

I'm slightly perplexed by what to expect with UCLA on the bubble. In theory, a #42 NET is good enough for a P-5 team to get in -- especially given how snakebit UCLA was by injuries this year. I'd say that they don't really have any quality wins outside of wins over Wazzu and Arizona. The resume is extremely thin -- and they're likely on the outside looking in regardless of what happens.

 

[Basket]

I sure hope UCLA does not make it. I’d rather see teams like Wash St or BC make it though both of them are capable of some of the worst basketball to watch

 

[Lorcan]

Live look into the A-10 finals where a bubble likely burst.,

 

[Basket]

BC Eagles now on life support

 

[Plebe]

As NET is a relatively new tool, I thought it'd be fun to take a look at what the NET looked like last year in regards to teams on the bubble.

Here are the 33 At-Large Teams and their NET Rankings from last year pre-tourney. Keep in mind that there were 33 at-large bids due to the Ivy League not playing last season.

#6 Louisville
#8 UCLA
#9 Indiana
#10 Oregon
#11 Texas A&M
#12 Rutgers
#13 Georgia
#14 Tennessee
#15 Arizona
#17 Arkansas
#18 Kentucky
#20 Missouri State
#22 Michigan
#23 Iowa
#24 West Virginia
#26 Iowa State
#27 Oklahoma State
#28 Virginia Tech
#29 Texas
#30 Georgia Tech
#31 Northwestern
#33 Alabama
#34 Marquette
#35 North Carolina
#36 Oregon State
#38 Central Florida
#40 Michigan State
#43 Syracuse
#45 Washington State
#46 South Dakota State
#47 Wake Forest
#48 Florida State
#50 BYU

The teams that did not get an invitation to the Big Dance despite their NET Ranking include:

#37 Bucknell (Given that Bucknell only played the Patriot League last year, IIRC, makes sense that they got left out.)
#39 Missouri
#41 Ole Miss
#49 Drake
#51 IUPUI
#52 Colorado
#53 Tulane
#54 New Mexico
#56 Notre Dame

It's extremely difficult to make any judgements based on data from last season given the state of the world that affected schedules to a larger degree than this year and the ability of teams to play outside of their regional bubbles. I'm thinking of taking a more in depth look once the tournaments are done and we know how many bubbles have "burst"

Thanks for compiling this data.

It's noteworthy, for all the people who think the committee is an undercover SEC operation, that Missouri and Ole Miss were both left out despite having higher NET rankings than several at-large bid recipients, including South Dakota State (46) and BYU (50).

 

[Plebe]

I just updated the header post with the latest NET rankings and a few other tweaks and annotations.

I still believe the final 7 at-large bids are very much up in the air. Out of the large group of 20+ bubble teams I identified, I believe the following have the strongest cases (in no particular order):

Washington State​

Missouri​

Gonzaga​

Dayton​

Northwestern​

Villanova​

Missouri State​

Florida State​

Oregon State​

South Dakota State​

DePaul​

 

[LoTrader]

I just updated the header post with the latest NET rankings and a few other tweaks and annotations.

I still believe the final 7 at-large bids are very much up in the air. Out of the large group of 20+ bubble teams I identified, I believe the following have the strongest cases (in no particular order):

Washington State​

Missouri​

Gonzaga​

Dayton​

Northwestern​

Villanova​

Missouri State​

Florida State​

Oregon State​

South Dakota State​

DePaul​

Thanks for including OSU. I really think OSU is a tournament team. But, I am just a biased OSU fan using the "eye test", not any other measuring stick.

 

[undersized]

Washington State

Missouri​

Gonzaga​

Dayton​

Northwestern​

Villanova​

Missouri State​

Florida State​

Oregon State​

South Dakota State​

DePaul​

I've bolded 5 that I would choose. After that it's up for grabs. Worth saying that the Zags, Missouri State, and SDSU can still take matters into their own hands by winning their conference tournaments. All are serious contenders. I suppose you could put Villanova in that category as well seeing as they are 1-0 against UConn this year.

 

[Plebe]

Thanks for including OSU. I really think OSU is a tournament team. But, I am just a biased OSU fan using the "eye test", not any other measuring stick.

Let's put it this way. I wouldn't call OSU's chances "great" but I would be less surprised by them getting a bid than I was in 2017 when Cal got one.

I've bolded 5 that I would choose. After that it's up for grabs. Worth saying that the Zags, Missouri State, and SDSU can still take matters into their own hands by winning their conference tournaments.

If Gonzaga wins out, it definitely "shrinks" the bubble because BYU is a lock.

As for SDSU winning out, I don't believe South Dakota would be a lock; as I re-examine their resume, I think in the event of a loss in the conference tournament they are really more of a bubble team. Very light on quality wins. Could go either way.

Although I did list two other MVC teams in the large "bubble" group, I don't believe either of them is in a good position. And after Missouri State's recent loss to Loyola Chicago, I don't know how much I like their chances of an at-large bid either.

 

[Basket]

I just updated the header post with the latest NET rankings and a few other tweaks and annotations.

I still believe the final 7 at-large bids are very much up in the air. Out of the large group of 20+ bubble teams I identified, I believe the following have the strongest cases (in no particular order):

Washington State​

Missouri​

Gonzaga​

Dayton​

Northwestern​

Villanova​

Missouri State​

Florida State​

Oregon State​

South Dakota State​

DePaul​

Good list. I do think DePaul and Oregon St are definitely history now though. Villanova’s NET is higher than any team in here. Think it was low 70’s before the weekend. Could depend on if they can keep from getting blown out by UConn

 

[Plebe]

I’m 2017 Cal was something like 5-13 in Pac 12 and got in

6-12

Pretty sure that .333 is an all-time record for lowest win percentage in conference play to get an at-large.

 

[Basket]

6-12

Pretty sure that .333 is an all-time record for lowest win percentage in conference play to get an at-large.

I put a lot of misinformation out. Good knowledge

 

[nwhoopfan]

Missouri St. just lost in the semifinals of the MVC. That might cost them.

 

[Plebe]

Missouri St. just lost in the semifinals of the MVC. That might cost them.

Yeah, I'm very curious to see what the committee does with Missouri State.

They dominated Virginia Tech on a neutral court back in November and also took Missouri to the woodshed FWIW. But also took a mystifying loss to Oklahoma State. Then they lost their leading scorer and rebounder to an ACL injury just before Christmas. Losing 5 games in conference play just might be a bridge too far.

 

[undersized]

Yeah, I'm very curious to see what the committee does with Missouri State.

They dominated Virginia Tech on a neutral court back in November and also took Missouri to the woodshed FWIW. But also took a mystifying loss to Oklahoma State. Then they lost their leading scorer and rebounder to an ACL injury just before Christmas. Losing 5 games in conference play just might be a bridge too far.

Say what you will about USC, but Missouri State also dominated them at USC, which is technically a quad 1 win since USC is NET #75 at the moment. In theory I'd rather see the MVC get two bids than a conference like the SEC get nine bids, but I'm not sure I see it with Missouri State, especially considering that they no longer have Jasmine Franklin.

 

[Plebe]

Still looking at 7 at-large bids available, likely from the following group of 15 or 16 teams (depending on whether Northern Iowa wins the MVC automatic bid today):

South Dakota State (36 in NET / 43 in Massey)​

UCLA (41 / 34)​

Dayton (43 / 58)​

Missouri State (44 / 47)​

Boston College (48 / 48)​

Northern Iowa (49 / 61) [could win auto-bid today]​

Missouri (50 / 53)​

Florida State (52 / 50)​

DePaul (53 / 42)​

Oregon State (54 / 37)​

Duke (56 / 52)​

Alabama (57 / 56)​

Washington State (58 / 35)​

Mississippi State (60 / 57)​

Northwestern (66 / 49)​

Villanova (71 / 59)​

(Took the liberty of removing Michigan State and Marquette from this list. Their resumes just aren't nearly good enough.)

 

[undersized]

Still looking at 7 at-large bids available, likely from the following group of 15 or 16 teams (depending on whether Northern Iowa wins the MVC automatic bid today):

South Dakota State (36 in NET)​

UCLA (41)​

Dayton (43)​

Missouri State (44)​

Boston College (48)​

Northern Iowa (49) [could win auto-bid today]​

Missouri (50)​

Florida State (52)​

DePaul (53)​

Oregon State (54)​

Duke (56)​

Alabama (57)​

Washington State (58)​

Mississippi State (60)​

Northwestern (66)​

Villanova (71)​

(Took the liberty of removing Michigan State and Marquette from this list. Their resumes just aren't nearly good enough.)

My wish list:
SDSU
Dayton
Missouri State
UNI (or auto-bid, fingers crossed)
Washington State
Northwestern
Villanova

I posted yesterday that I didn't see it with Missouri State. Changed my mind comparing them to some of these other teams.

 

[Plebe]

My wish list:
SDSU
Dayton
Missouri State
UNI (or auto-bid, fingers crossed)
Washington State
Northwestern
Villanova

I posted yesterday that I didn't see it with Missouri State. Changed my mind comparing them to some of these other teams.

I think Washington State is the safest of the bunch.

I also think Missouri is extremely unlikely to be denied a bid, given the quality of their wins.

The last 5 seem really up for grabs.

 

[maccca3232]

Still looking at 7 at-large bids available, likely from the following group of 15 or 16 teams (depending on whether Northern Iowa wins the MVC automatic bid today):

South Dakota State (36 in NET / 43 in Massey)​

UCLA (41 / 34)​

Dayton (43 / 58)​

Missouri State (44 / 47)​

Boston College (48 / 48)​

Northern Iowa (49 / 61) [could win auto-bid today]​

Missouri (50 / 53)​

Florida State (52 / 50)​

DePaul (53 / 42)​

Oregon State (54 / 37)​

Duke (56 / 52)​

Alabama (57 / 56)​

Washington State (58 / 35)​

Mississippi State (60 / 57)​

Northwestern (66 / 49)​

Villanova (71 / 59)​

(Took the liberty of removing Michigan State and Marquette from this list. Their resumes just aren't nearly good enough.)

For comparison, Creme has Toledo (65 / 64) as 'Next 4 Out' and doesn't have Oregon State or Mississippi State.

 

[Plebe]

For comparison, Creme has Toledo (65 / 64) as 'Next 4 Out' and doesn't have Oregon State or Mississippi State.

I'd love to hear his explanation for putting Toledo ahead of those two.

Toledo's only win vs. the NET top 100 is over Buffalo (84). Plus 2 losses in Quad 3. There's just nothing there. Oregon State and Mississippi State have clearly better resumes.

 

[LoTrader]

I'd love to hear his explanation for putting Toledo ahead of those two.

Toledo's only win vs. the NET top 100 is over Buffalo (84). Plus 2 losses in Quad 3. There's just nothing there. Oregon State and Mississippi State have clearly better resumes.