Breakdown of NCAAT locks and bubble teams | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Breakdown of NCAAT locks and bubble teams

I sure hope UCLA does not make it. I’d rather see teams like Wash St or BC make it though both of them are capable of some of the worst basketball to watch
 
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Live look into the A-10 finals where a bubble likely burst.,
 
Lorcan said:
As NET is a relatively new tool, I thought it'd be fun to take a look at what the NET looked like last year in regards to teams on the bubble.

Here are the 33 At-Large Teams and their NET Rankings from last year pre-tourney. Keep in mind that there were 33 at-large bids due to the Ivy League not playing last season.

#6 Louisville
#8 UCLA
#9 Indiana
#10 Oregon
#11 Texas A&M
#12 Rutgers
#13 Georgia
#14 Tennessee
#15 Arizona
#17 Arkansas
#18 Kentucky
#20 Missouri State
#22 Michigan
#23 Iowa
#24 West Virginia
#26 Iowa State
#27 Oklahoma State
#28 Virginia Tech
#29 Texas
#30 Georgia Tech
#31 Northwestern
#33 Alabama
#34 Marquette
#35 North Carolina
#36 Oregon State
#38 Central Florida
#40 Michigan State
#43 Syracuse
#45 Washington State
#46 South Dakota State
#47 Wake Forest
#48 Florida State
#50 BYU

The teams that did not get an invitation to the Big Dance despite their NET Ranking include:

#37 Bucknell (Given that Bucknell only played the Patriot League last year, IIRC, makes sense that they got left out.)
#39 Missouri
#41 Ole Miss
#49 Drake
#51 IUPUI
#52 Colorado
#53 Tulane
#54 New Mexico
#56 Notre Dame

It's extremely difficult to make any judgements based on data from last season given the state of the world that affected schedules to a larger degree than this year and the ability of teams to play outside of their regional bubbles. I'm thinking of taking a more in depth look once the tournaments are done and we know how many bubbles have "burst"
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Thanks for compiling this data.

It's noteworthy, for all the people who think the committee is an undercover SEC operation, that Missouri and Ole Miss were both left out despite having higher NET rankings than several at-large bid recipients, including South Dakota State (46) and BYU (50).
 
I just updated the header post with the latest NET rankings and a few other tweaks and annotations.

I still believe the final 7 at-large bids are very much up in the air. Out of the large group of 20+ bubble teams I identified, I believe the following have the strongest cases (in no particular order):

Washington State​
Missouri​
Gonzaga​
Dayton​
Northwestern​
Villanova​
Missouri State​
Florida State​
Oregon State​
South Dakota State​
DePaul​
 
Plebe said:
I just updated the header post with the latest NET rankings and a few other tweaks and annotations.

I still believe the final 7 at-large bids are very much up in the air. Out of the large group of 20+ bubble teams I identified, I believe the following have the strongest cases (in no particular order):

Washington State​
Missouri​
Gonzaga​
Dayton​
Northwestern​
Villanova​
Missouri State​
Florida State​
Oregon State​
South Dakota State​
DePaul​
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Thanks for including OSU. I really think OSU is a tournament team. But, I am just a biased OSU fan using the "eye test", not any other measuring stick.
 
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Plebe said:
Washington State
Missouri​
Gonzaga​
Dayton​
Northwestern​
Villanova​
Missouri State​
Florida State​
Oregon State​
South Dakota State​
DePaul​
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I've bolded 5 that I would choose. After that it's up for grabs. Worth saying that the Zags, Missouri State, and SDSU can still take matters into their own hands by winning their conference tournaments. All are serious contenders. I suppose you could put Villanova in that category as well seeing as they are 1-0 against UConn this year. :p
 
LoTrader said:
Thanks for including OSU. I really think OSU is a tournament team. But, I am just a biased OSU fan using the "eye test", not any other measuring stick.
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Let's put it this way. I wouldn't call OSU's chances "great" but I would be less surprised by them getting a bid than I was in 2017 when Cal got one.

undersized said:
I've bolded 5 that I would choose. After that it's up for grabs. Worth saying that the Zags, Missouri State, and SDSU can still take matters into their own hands by winning their conference tournaments.
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If Gonzaga wins out, it definitely "shrinks" the bubble because BYU is a lock.

As for SDSU winning out, I don't believe South Dakota would be a lock; as I re-examine their resume, I think in the event of a loss in the conference tournament they are really more of a bubble team. Very light on quality wins. Could go either way.

Although I did list two other MVC teams in the large "bubble" group, I don't believe either of them is in a good position. And after Missouri State's recent loss to Loyola Chicago, I don't know how much I like their chances of an at-large bid either.
 
Plebe said:
I just updated the header post with the latest NET rankings and a few other tweaks and annotations.

I still believe the final 7 at-large bids are very much up in the air. Out of the large group of 20+ bubble teams I identified, I believe the following have the strongest cases (in no particular order):

Washington State​
Missouri​
Gonzaga​
Dayton​
Northwestern​
Villanova​
Missouri State​
Florida State​
Oregon State​
South Dakota State​
DePaul​
Expand ...
Good list. I do think DePaul and Oregon St are definitely history now though. Villanova’s NET is higher than any team in here. Think it was low 70’s before the weekend. Could depend on if they can keep from getting blown out by UConn
 
Basket said:
I’m 2017 Cal was something like 5-13 in Pac 12 and got in
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6-12

Pretty sure that .333 is an all-time record for lowest win percentage in conference play to get an at-large.
 
Plebe said:
6-12

Pretty sure that .333 is an all-time record for lowest win percentage in conference play to get an at-large.
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I put a lot of misinformation out. Good knowledge
 
Missouri St. just lost in the semifinals of the MVC. That might cost them.
 
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nwhoopfan said:
Missouri St. just lost in the semifinals of the MVC. That might cost them.
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Yeah, I'm very curious to see what the committee does with Missouri State.

They dominated Virginia Tech on a neutral court back in November and also took Missouri to the woodshed FWIW. But also took a mystifying loss to Oklahoma State. Then they lost their leading scorer and rebounder to an ACL injury just before Christmas. Losing 5 games in conference play just might be a bridge too far.
 
Plebe said:
Yeah, I'm very curious to see what the committee does with Missouri State.

They dominated Virginia Tech on a neutral court back in November and also took Missouri to the woodshed FWIW. But also took a mystifying loss to Oklahoma State. Then they lost their leading scorer and rebounder to an ACL injury just before Christmas. Losing 5 games in conference play just might be a bridge too far.
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Say what you will about USC, but Missouri State also dominated them at USC, which is technically a quad 1 win since USC is NET #75 at the moment. In theory I'd rather see the MVC get two bids than a conference like the SEC get nine bids, but I'm not sure I see it with Missouri State, especially considering that they no longer have Jasmine Franklin.
 
Still looking at 7 at-large bids available, likely from the following group of 15 or 16 teams (depending on whether Northern Iowa wins the MVC automatic bid today):

South Dakota State (36 in NET / 43 in Massey)​
UCLA (41 / 34)​
Dayton (43 / 58)​
Missouri State (44 / 47)​
Boston College (48 / 48)​
Northern Iowa (49 / 61) [could win auto-bid today]​
Missouri (50 / 53)​
Florida State (52 / 50)​
DePaul (53 / 42)​
Oregon State (54 / 37)​
Duke (56 / 52)​
Alabama (57 / 56)​
Washington State (58 / 35)​
Mississippi State (60 / 57)​
Northwestern (66 / 49)​
Villanova (71 / 59)​

(Took the liberty of removing Michigan State and Marquette from this list. Their resumes just aren't nearly good enough.)
 
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Plebe said:
Still looking at 7 at-large bids available, likely from the following group of 15 or 16 teams (depending on whether Northern Iowa wins the MVC automatic bid today):

South Dakota State (36 in NET)​
UCLA (41)​
Dayton (43)​
Missouri State (44)​
Boston College (48)​
Northern Iowa (49) [could win auto-bid today]​
Missouri (50)​
Florida State (52)​
DePaul (53)​
Oregon State (54)​
Duke (56)​
Alabama (57)​
Washington State (58)​
Mississippi State (60)​
Northwestern (66)​
Villanova (71)​

(Took the liberty of removing Michigan State and Marquette from this list. Their resumes just aren't nearly good enough.)
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My wish list:
SDSU
Dayton
Missouri State
UNI (or auto-bid, fingers crossed)
Washington State
Northwestern
Villanova

I posted yesterday that I didn't see it with Missouri State. Changed my mind comparing them to some of these other teams.
 
undersized said:
My wish list:
SDSU
Dayton
Missouri State
UNI (or auto-bid, fingers crossed)
Washington State
Northwestern
Villanova

I posted yesterday that I didn't see it with Missouri State. Changed my mind comparing them to some of these other teams.
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I think Washington State is the safest of the bunch.

I also think Missouri is extremely unlikely to be denied a bid, given the quality of their wins.

The last 5 seem really up for grabs.
 
Plebe said:
Still looking at 7 at-large bids available, likely from the following group of 15 or 16 teams (depending on whether Northern Iowa wins the MVC automatic bid today):

South Dakota State (36 in NET / 43 in Massey)​
UCLA (41 / 34)​
Dayton (43 / 58)​
Missouri State (44 / 47)​
Boston College (48 / 48)​
Northern Iowa (49 / 61) [could win auto-bid today]​
Missouri (50 / 53)​
Florida State (52 / 50)​
DePaul (53 / 42)​
Oregon State (54 / 37)​
Duke (56 / 52)​
Alabama (57 / 56)​
Washington State (58 / 35)​
Mississippi State (60 / 57)​
Northwestern (66 / 49)​
Villanova (71 / 59)​

(Took the liberty of removing Michigan State and Marquette from this list. Their resumes just aren't nearly good enough.)
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For comparison, Creme has Toledo (65 / 64) as 'Next 4 Out' and doesn't have Oregon State or Mississippi State.
 
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maccca3232 said:
For comparison, Creme has Toledo (65 / 64) as 'Next 4 Out' and doesn't have Oregon State or Mississippi State.
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I'd love to hear his explanation for putting Toledo ahead of those two.

Toledo's only win vs. the NET top 100 is over Buffalo (84). Plus 2 losses in Quad 3. There's just nothing there. Oregon State and Mississippi State have clearly better resumes.
 
Plebe said:
I'd love to hear his explanation for putting Toledo ahead of those two.

Toledo's only win vs. the NET top 100 is over Buffalo (84). Plus 2 losses in Quad 3. There's just nothing there. Oregon State and Mississippi State have clearly better resumes.
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Of course I'm rooting for Charlie Creme to be way off base on the 65-68 teams.
 
Oregon St and Miss St have zero chance. Good point about Toledo having few quality wins
 
LoTrader said:
Of course I'm rooting for Charlie Creme to be way off base on the 65-68 teams.
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Me too I’m hoping BC gets in but they have two awful losses to Boston University and VCU. If you’re an ACC team how do you lose to those teams? How many good Power 5 teams have 2 losses to not even mid majors? I better shut up.
 
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