3 guys coming off the bench for their teams went in the top 10 of the draft this season. Sarr played 17 min a night and went #2.
Sarr was a case of ‘tier 1’ measurables and potential over production. I heard draft analysts say he wouldn’t normally be the second pick in a draft either.
Mullins will need to be a case of production over measurables, unless he has length and athleticism that didn’t jump out in the highlights I watched awhile ago. I would imagine producing this way in a normal >20 minute bench role for Hurley would be hard, unless he puts up Reed Shepherd(unheard of) levels of efficiency. It’s within the bounds of possibility, but very unlikely.
I'm not even sure it's that unlikely. There were 2 college guys in Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham who went top 8 and started a combined 6 games. And McNeeley is being projected as a lottery pick next year and while I think he starts there's at least a plausible scenario where it's Stewart and Karaban at the 3/4 and McNeeley gets his 25 minutes off the bench
I think comparing him to the Kentucky guys is wrong. Everyone knew very quickly that Reed and Rob were the best guards in Kentucky, but Cal apparently thinks bringing his best guards off the bench is a competitive advantage.
Despite that, Reed averaged 29 minutes per night, the same as a starter. Mullins hitting that number seems unrealistic in a Hurley rotation based on available data.
Rob, on the other hand, only played 23 minutes per night. Doing some quick digging, we did have a 6th man average similar minutes under Hurley years ago, Brendan Adams. That teams starting wings were freshman Bouknight, and Vital. Maybe Mullins could reach 22 minutes in a situation like that, but then he’d also have to produce at the insane rate that Rob did in his minutes to be a one and done. Which is possible, but seems unlikely.
This is all because I also believe Hurley will start and play his best players the most minutes. So if Mullins produces like Reed or Rob, I think an incumbent is finding the bench.